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The international climate negotiations The negotiation process and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu The international climate negotiations The negotiation process and the Paris Agreement Cairo, 23 January 2017 Lena Donat Ecologic Institute Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Outline 1) Why are the international

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

The international climate negotiations

The negotiation process and the Paris Agreement

Cairo, 23 January 2017 Lena Donat Ecologic Institute

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Outline

1) Why are the international climate negotiations challenging and how do they look like in practice? 2) What did the Paris Agreement achieve and what are

  • utstanding issues?

3) What does the Paris Agreement mean for the national level?

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Challenge 1: Climate change is global.

Images: http://www.shtig.net/climate/car_world_sm.gif and http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8324428.stm

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Challenge 1: Climate change is global.

Photos: cfact.org; iisd.ca

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Challenge 2: Interests are diverse.

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

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Challenge 2: Interests are diverse.

Source: unfccc.int

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Challenge 3: Time is limited.

Blue choices: <2°C. Orange choices: >2°C.

Global greenhouse emissions

Source:Malte Meinshausen 2015

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Challenge 3: Time is limited.

Source: IISD

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

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The way to Paris

Late 1980s: growing awareness of climate change

1992 United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC)

Vague responsibilities “Common But Differentiated Responsibility” 23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

The way to Paris

Late 1980s: growing awareness of climate change 1992 UNFCCC

1997 Kyoto

Protocol

Vague responsibilities “Common But Differentiated Responsibility” Targets for developed countries only 23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

The way to Paris

Late 1980s: growing awareness

  • f climate

change 1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol

2005 -2015 negotiating the future…

Vague responsibilities “Common But Differentiated Responsibility” Targets for developed countries only AMBITION: all need to phase-out emissions at some point

  • FAIRNESS: historical

responsibility; changing emission/economic realities 23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

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The way to Paris

Late 1980s: growing awareness

  • f climate

change 1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2005 -2015 negotiating the future…

Vague responsibilities “Common But Differentiated Responsibility” Targets for developed countries only Adoption: Dec 2015 Entry into force: Nov 2016 23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Paris Agreement – Key points

Global goals

  • Well below 2°C

and striving towards 1.5°C

  • GHG neutrality

in 2nd halve of 21st century

  • Making financial

flows consistent

  • Adaptation
  • Global stocktake

NDCs

  • All parties
  • Every 5 years
  • “progression”
  • But no detailed

rules on content

  • r ambition
  • + 2050

strategies Adaptation

  • Adaptation

communications

  • Loss and

damage Finance

  • 100bn USD

annually continue until 2025, then to be revised upwards.

  • More

transparency in developed countries

Source: Malte Meinshausen 2015

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Paris Agreement – Key points

Global goals

  • 2°C and striving

towards 1.5°C

  • Phase out in 2nd

halve of 21st century

  • Making financial

flows consistent

  • Adaptation
  • Global stocktake

NDCs

  • ALL parties
  • Every 5 years
  • “progression”
  • But no detailed

rules on content

  • r ambition
  • + 2050

strategies Adaptation

  • Adaptation

communications

  • Loss and

damage Finance

  • 100bn USD

annually continue until 2025, then to be revised upwards.

  • More

transparency in developed countries 23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

INDCs present real deviation from BAU

Source: European Commission (2015)

Gap

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Dynamism: countries regularly update NDCs

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook.; Paris Agreement

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Paris Agreement – Key points

Global goals

  • 2°C and striving

towards 1.5°C

  • Phase out in 2nd

halve of 21st century

  • Making financial

flows consistent

  • Adaptation
  • Global stocktake

NDCs

  • All parties
  • Every 5 years
  • “progression”
  • But no detailed

rules on content

  • r ambition
  • + 2050

strategies Adaptation

  • Adaptation

communications

  • Loss and

damage Finance

  • 100bn USD

annually continue until 2025, then to be revised upwards.

  • More

transparency in developed countries 23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Next: Paris Rulebook

Global goals

  • Waiting for IPCC

report NDCs

  • Ongoing discussions

Adaptation

  • Ongoing discussions

Finance

  • 100bn Roadmap

published in Oct 2016

Global goals

  • Understanding

implications of 1.5°C (IPCC report in 2018) NDCs

  • Facilitative

dialogue in 2018

  • NDC rules on

content

  • Stocktake

modalities (input, process, output) Adaptation

  • Guidance on

adaptation communications Finance

  • How to get to

100bn?

  • How much after

2025?

Progress after COP22 in Marrakesh

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Paris at the national level

Global goals

  • Check whether

your policies (e.g. energy, fiscal, transport) are compatible with Paris goals NDCs

  • Translate 1st

NDC into actions

  • Consider

upscaling NDC

  • Prepare next

NDC

  • Prepare a 2050

strategy Adaptation

  • Prepare

adaptation communications Finance

  • Revise

subsidies, public investment etc to favour low- carbon options

  • Propose climate

projects to international funds 23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations

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Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Ecologic Institute

Pfalzburger Str. 43/44 10717 Berlin Germany

  • Tel. +49 (30) 86880-0

ecologic.eu

Thank you!

Further reading: Bodle/Donat/Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement: Analysis, Assessment and Outlook http://ecologic.eu/13321

23 January 2017 The international climate negotiations