The international climate negotiations The negotiation process and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu The international climate negotiations The negotiation process and the Paris Agreement Cairo, 23 January 2017 Lena Donat Ecologic Institute

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Outline 1) Why are the international climate negotiations challenging and how do they look like in practice? 2) What did the Paris Agreement achieve and what are outstanding issues? 3) What does the Paris Agreement mean for the national level? The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Challenge 1: Climate change is global. Images: http://www.shtig.net/climate/car_world_sm.gif and http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8324428.stm The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Challenge 1: Climate change is global. Photos: cfact.org; iisd.ca The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Challenge 2: Interests are diverse. The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Challenge 2: Interests are diverse. Source: unfccc.int The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Challenge 3: Time is limited. Global greenhouse emissions Source:Malte Meinshausen 2015 Blue choices: <2°C. Orange choices: >2°C . The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Challenge 3: Time is limited. Source: IISD The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu The way to Paris Vague responsibilities “Common But Differentiated Responsibility” 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on climate change (UNFCCC) Late 1980s: growing awareness of climate change The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu The way to Paris Targets for developed countries only 1997 Kyoto 1992 Protocol UNFCCC Late 1980s: Vague responsibilities growing awareness of “Common But Differentiated climate Responsibility” change The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu The way to Paris AMBITION: all need to phase-out emissions at some point Targets for developed countries only • FAIRNESS: historical responsibility; changing emission/economic realities 2005 -2015 1997 Kyoto Protocol negotiating the future… 1992 UNFCCC Vague responsibilities Late 1980s: growing awareness “Common But Differentiated of climate Responsibility” change The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu The way to Paris Targets for developed countries only 2005 -2015 1997 Kyoto negotiating the Protocol future… 1992 UNFCCC Late 1980s: Vague responsibilities Adoption: Dec 2015 growing “Common But Differentiated Entry into force: Nov awareness Responsibility” 2016 of climate change The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Paris Agreement – Key points Global goals NDCs Adaptation Finance • Well below 2°C • All parties • Adaptation • 100bn USD and striving communications annually • Every 5 years towards 1.5°C continue until • Loss and • “progression” 2025, then to be • GHG neutrality damage • But no detailed revised upwards. in 2 nd halve of rules on content 21 st century • More or ambition transparency in • Making financial • + 2050 developed flows consistent strategies countries • Adaptation • Global stocktake Source: Malte Meinshausen 2015 The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Paris Agreement – Key points Global goals NDCs Adaptation Finance • 2°C and striving • ALL parties • Adaptation • 100bn USD towards 1.5°C communications annually • Every 5 years continue until • Phase out in 2 nd • Loss and • “progression” 2025, then to be halve of 21 st damage • But no detailed revised upwards. century rules on content • More • Making financial or ambition transparency in flows consistent • + 2050 developed • Adaptation strategies countries • Global stocktake The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu INDCs present real deviation from BAU Gap Source: European Commission (2015) The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Dynamism: countries regularly update NDCs Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook.; Paris Agreement The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Paris Agreement – Key points Global goals NDCs Adaptation Finance • 2°C and striving • All parties • Adaptation • 100bn USD towards 1.5°C communications annually • Every 5 years continue until • Phase out in 2 nd • Loss and • “progression” 2025, then to be halve of 21 st damage • But no detailed revised upwards. century rules on content • More • Making financial or ambition transparency in flows consistent • + 2050 developed • Adaptation strategies countries • Global stocktake The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Next: Paris Rulebook Global goals NDCs Adaptation Finance • Understanding • Facilitative • Guidance on • How to get to implications of dialogue in 2018 adaptation 100bn? 1.5°C (IPCC communications • NDC rules on • How much after report in 2018) content 2025? • Stocktake modalities (input, process, output) Progress after COP22 in Marrakesh Global goals NDCs Adaptation Finance • Waiting for IPCC • Ongoing discussions • Ongoing discussions • 100bn Roadmap report published in Oct 2016 The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Paris at the national level Global goals NDCs Adaptation Finance • Check whether • Translate 1 st • Prepare • Revise your policies NDC into actions adaptation subsidies, public (e.g. energy, communications investment etc to • Consider fiscal, transport) favour low- upscaling NDC are compatible carbon options • Prepare next with Paris goals • Propose climate NDC projects to • Prepare a 2050 international strategy funds The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017

Ecologic Institute ecologic.eu Thank you! Ecologic Institute Further reading: Pfalzburger Str. 43/44 Bodle/Donat/Duwe (2016): The Paris 10717 Berlin Agreement: Analysis, Assessment Germany and Outlook http://ecologic.eu/13321 Tel. +49 (30) 86880-0 ecologic.eu The international climate negotiations 23 January 2017