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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
2015, in the press: last 13 years all were among 14 hottest ever recorded 2014 weather page: if December T stays “normal” then 2014 will be hottest ever records, globally consequence of global warming:
- uneven warming
- more extreme weather
2016 one of the hottest ever! 2017 CO2 increasing even though emission stayed flat 2018 one of the hottest ever! Anomalous Polar Vortex
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000 scientists do research and give input to panel (incl. SIO!)
"for their efgorts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change."
IPCC and Al Gore receive Nobel Peace Price 2007 http://www.climatecrisis.net > 99% scientists agree that global warming is real PEW research center survey: 2006: 77% Americans agree 2007: Inconvenient Truth 2009: 57% Americans agree TIME magazine: 2014: 40% Americans strongly agree 57% globally 71% in India
2017 U.S. Tweet of the day: “climate change is a hoax, a real hoax, fake news”
SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
1997: to stabilize CO2 at 450 ppm
emissions must fall to levels of 1990 by 2012
- needed 55% of producers to be ratified
- 2004: ratified after Russia joined; in effect Feb 2005
- 2007: Australia joined leaving
U.S. only industrial country not to join “it would hurt our economy”
green: agreed light green: developing world red: withdrawn
- range: no intention to ratify “it would hurt our economy”
grey: no position page will be updated as of 2012 this would have given us a 1.5ºC increase by 2100 … from pre-industrial levels
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
- 2010: Cancun;
- 2011: South Africa;
- 2012: Qatar
- 2013: Warsaw
- 2014: UN
- 2015: Paris
- 2016: Marrakesh ???
issues involved: cap-and-trade CO2 vs all GHG China’s grace period top 3 emitters 2015 (greenhouse gases): China (20.1%) U.S. (17.9%) Russia (7.5%) Indonesia 3rd by (deforestation) Indonesia: 85% through deforestation 15% rest
2009: Copenhagen Accord:
endorse continuation of Kyoto Protocol global increase in T should be less than 2ºC (compared to pre-industrial) recognize CO2 increase by deforestation
page will be updated 2ºC is more than Kyoto Protocol China passed USA as top emitter in 2009
SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
2015 Paris Agreement: continue Kyoto Protocol in some form as of Oct 2016: 193 parties signed; 110 ratified; went into effect Nov 4, 2016 For the very first time, U.S. is on board….. until 2017 BIGGEST ISSUES: verification that countries fulfill reduction doesn’t go as far as the Kyoto Protocol different countries have different commitments new U.S. administration
page will be updated
U.S. Tweet of the day: “gonna hurt our economy, hurt bad, real bad. We exit! We’re the greatest” “make American coal great again, real great! Coal is clean energy. Maybe even renewable?” newsclips: 11/08/17 Syria to join climate pact; U.S. only nation out 11/14/17 White House ridiculed at Bonn, Germany climate-change talks
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
some areas may benefit from
warmer climate BUT
- weather more extreme
- deserts expanding
- Midwest may become too dry
- > food production?
- polar regions lose ice
- > catastrophic consequences
For wildlife and people
- food chain
- encroachment
- diseases
SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
- 1.5ºC higher than pre-industrial
levels increasingly unlikely
- 2.0ºC if EVERYBODY sticks
with Paris agreement
- 3.2ºC or more with business as
usual
(POLLINATORS!!) most affected
Science News Jun 2018
2018 IPCC report/homework 5/ aquarium trip 2
- food shortages, wildfires, coral
mass die-offs
- 1.5ºC likely reached by 2040 !!
- inundated coastlines, intensifying
droughts, poverty
- mistake made earlier: predictions
that these effects kick in with a 2.0ºC increase by 2040
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
Homework 5: greenhouse emission must be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, and 100% by 2050 Implications: electricity from coal (currently 40 %) must be reduced to 1-7 % renewable energy must increase (currently 20%) to 67 %
SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
1993 2000
“Arctic summer ice free soon”
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
“how do we know it’s us?”
SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
China: explosive increase in coal burning -> CO2; SO2; mercury
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere source: IPCC 2014
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere source: wikipedia
this implies that we just passed the 1ºC increase compared to pre-industrial age (0.9 – (-0.2) = 1.1ºC) it also shows the dramatic increase in the rate of warming since 2010!
SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere source: Keller and Blodgett “Natural Hazards” &World Watch Institute
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere source: IPCC 2014
U.S. Tweet of the day: “make American coal great again, real great!”
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SIO15-18: Lecture 22:Anthropogenic Changes: The Atmosphere source: IPCC 2014
