The impact of intra-EU Mobility on National Welfare States - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Who Receives Which Benefits ? The impact of intra-EU Mobility

• n National Welfare States

Presentation for ESPAnet Conferences 2018:

• European: Vilnius (LT), 30 August
• Italian: Florence (IT), 14 September

AKNOWLEDGMENT: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 730998, InGRID-2 – Integrating Research Infrastructure for European expertise on Inclusive Growth from data to policy

DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL STUDIES

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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I. Introduction II. Research Design, Data & Method

• III. Empirical Results
• IV. Limitations & Further Research

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Outline

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Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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Introduction to the Topic

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After the EU Eastern Enlargements and 2008 economic crisis, national leaders campaigning against Freedom of Movement within the EU

(Mikl-Leitner, Friedrich, Teeven and May, 2013)

Possible explainations:

• 1. ACTORS: Populist and right-wing parties riding the wave of

welfare chauvinism to scapegoat the EU citizens for wider issues

(Ferrera 2017; Geddes and Hadj-Abdou, 2016; Collier, 2014)

• 2. INSTITUTIONS: National institutions attract different numbers

and types of EU citizens, while offering them different opportunities

(Ruhs and Palme, 2018; Afonso and Devitt, 2016)

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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Literature of Reference

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Economics of Migrations

Instead of FISCAL IMPACT and ‘WELFARE MAGNET’ hypothesis, focus

• n the less explored stream concerning the USE OF WELFARE

(Zimmerman et al. 2012; Medgyesi and Poloskei 2013)

 Different rates of receipt among EU Citizens VS Natives

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

Comparative Welfare Studies

Cross-country analyses on BENEFICIARIES are a novel research frontier, to be combined with SOCIAL RIGHTS and SOCIAL EXPENDITURE approaches

(Van Oorschot 2013)

 Actual recipients of social benefits through Survey Data

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The Research Questions and Hypotheses

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• 1. Do the populations of European citizens vary across

Member States according to their characteristics?

HP1) EU citizens present substantially different demographic and socio-economic characteristics across countries;  Descriptive analysis

• 2. Are EU citizens enjoying benefits in the same way of

natives in the country of destination ?

HP2) The use of welfare by European citizens is alternatively :

• Similar (same rate of receipt of natives) – Assimilation
• Different (either higher or lower) – Segregation

 Probit regressions

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

Selection of benefits: Unemployment and Family Benefits

 More likely to function as a magnet for migrants (Zimmerman et al., 2012)  Presenting higher rates of receipts among migrants (Afonso and Devitt, 2016)

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Case Selection and Data

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Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

Selection of countries: 5 Main Destinations Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS)

for Unemployment benefits (variable „Register‟ to avoid exported benefits)

EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC)

for Family benefits (variable „hy050g‟)

Starting point: Replication and Updating of the study for

the EU Commission by Márton Medgyesi and Péter Pölöskei

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Innovations compared to Previous Literature

• All EU Member States  Focus on 5 main Destinations
• All benefits  2 types of benefits: Unemployment & Family
• Data EU-SILC wave 2010-2011

 both LFS & SILC wave 2015

• Novelty  EU Citizens split into:
• EU15 ‘Old’ Europe
• EU10 (2004 Enlargement)
• EU3 (2007 and 2013)

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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‘New’ Europe

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Population in the Samples according to Origin

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MAIN LIMITATIONS:

• EU and non-EU

are grouped for Germany, Poland and Romania

• All EU are in a

single group in EU-SILC

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Employment Opportunities and Job Quality

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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EU Citizens Populations along Years of Residence

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

Composition according to the group of EU origin: EU15 EU3

Inverted-U shape

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Assimilation Process: the welfare use by EU citizens approaches the one of natives with Duration of Stay

Prevailing Assimilation scenario: EU citizens have a use of welfare similar to natives

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Descriptive analysis on the only case of Segregation emerged:

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Results and Conclusion

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 HP1) The populations of EU citizens present substantially

different characteristics across host Member States. They are more likely :

 Female, Highly Educated BUT not always younger ! (AT and HU)  At higher Risk of Unemployment everywhere (compared to natives) X From ‘Old’ Europe in AT and DK, while ‘New’ Europe in HU and IT X Higher % of Professionals among EU15, lower among EU10 & EU3 X Waves of Arrival vary according to countries of Origin & Destination

X HP2) The use of welfare by mobile European does not

significantly differ from the one of natives across countries.

Prevailing ASSIMILATION (or Process of) scenario

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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Limitations and Further Research

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Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

 Not enough evidence to connect in a single narrative (HP1) the European Citizens’ Profiles with (HP2) their Use of Welfare in each Country Limited data availability:

• Small Sample Size (especially among beneficiaries)
• Anonymization Procedure (country of origin, years since arrival, age)

Further Research should explore:

• Migration trajectories (Specific combinations of origin & destination)
• Longitudinal Dynamics (Along years of residence; Pre & Post 2008 crisis)
• Role of National Institutions (Welfare regimes; Labour market features; etc.)

E-mail contact: mariagiulia.montanari@unimi.it

Afonso A. and Devitt C. (2016), Comparative Political Economy and International Migration, Oxford, Socio-Economic Review, Vol. 14 N. 3, pp. 591–613 Boeri T. (2009), Immigration to the Land of Redistribution, IZA Discussion Paper n. 4273, June 2009 Borjas, G.J. (1999), Immigration and welfare magnets, Journal of Labor Economics, 17(4), 607–637 Bruzelius C., Reinprecht C. and Seeleib-Kaiser M. (2017), Stratified Social Rights Limiting EU Citizenship, Journal of Common Market Studies Vol. 55 n. 6, pp. 1239-1253 Cameron D. (2013), Free movement within Europe needs to be less free. Vast migrations extract talent from countries that need their best people, article published on „Financial Times‟, 26th November 2013 Castro-Martin T. and Cortina C. (2015), Demographic Issues of Intra-European Migration: Destination, Family and Settlement, Springer Cattaneo C., Fiorio C. e Peri G. (2013), Immigration and careers of European workers: effects and the role of policies, IZA Journal of European Labour Studies Vol. 2:17 pp. 1-26 Chiswick B.R. and Liang Lee Y. (2005), A Longitudinal Analysis of Immigrant Occupational Mobility: A Test of the Immigrant Assimilation Hypothesis, Centre for Migration Studies of New York, IMR Vol. 39(2)

• pp. 332-353

Collier P. (2014), Immigration's 'dark side': a challenge for the left, Article published online on „Policy Network‟, 5th December 2014 Dustmann C. and Frattini T. (2015), The Fiscal Effects of Immigration to the UK, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration, Department of Economics, University College London, CDP n. 22 De Wispelaere F. and Pacolet J. (2015), Posting of Workers: The Impact of Social Security Coordination and Income Taxation Law on Welfare States, Working Paper HIVA center at KU Leuven, November 2015

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References (I)

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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ECAS report (2014), Fiscal Impact of EU Migrants in Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and UK, Report by the „European Citizen Action Service‟, Brussels Esping-Andersen G. (1990), The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism, Cambridge, Polity Press Eurobarometer (2016), Public opinion in the European Union. First results, Standard n. 85, Spring 16 Ferrera M. (2017), The Contentious Politics of Hospitality:Intra‐EU Mobility and Social Rights, European Law Journal Online 25th May 2017 Ferrera M. (2005), The boundaries of welfare. European integration and the new spatial politics of social protection, ed. Oxford University Geddes A. and Hadj-Abdou L. (2016), An unstable equilibrium: Freedom of Movement and the Welfare State in the European Union, in „Handbook on migration and social policy‟ of Freeman and Mirilovic, ed. Edward Elgar, p. 222-238 Heindlmaier A. and Blauberger M. (2017), Enter at Your Own Risk: Free Movement of EU Citizens in Practice, Western European Policies, ed. Routledge Juravle C. et al. (2013), Fact finding analysis on the impact on Member States’ social security systems of the entitlements of non-active intra-EU migrants to special non-contributory cash benefits and healthcare granted on the basis of residence, DG EMPL via DG Justice Framework Contract, final report by ICF GHK, Milieu Ltd Kaczmarczyk P. and Rapoport H. (2014), Migrants Undermine Our Welfare Systems, Stereotype 4 in Fargues P. 'Is What We Hear About Migration Really True?' Full Report, EUI Migration Policy Centre Manafi et al. (2017), Mobility in Europe: Recent Trends from a Cluster Analysis, International Migration – Economic Implications, Amfiteatru Economic, 19(46), pp. 711-726

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References (II)

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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Maquet I., Maestri V. and Thévenot C. (2016), The coverage rate of income support measures in the EU: measurement and challenges, Working Paper 2/2016 by EU Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion, ISSN: 1977-4125 Martinsen D. S. et al. (2017), Free movement of People and Cross-Border Welfare in the European Union: Dynamic Rules, Limited Outcomes, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3123000 Martinsen D. S. and Pons Rotger G. (2016), The fiscal impact of EU immigration on the tax-financed welfare state: testing the ‘welfare burden’ thesis, Danish national Centre for Social Research, WP n. 6 Medgyesi M. and Poloskei P. (2013), Access of mobile EU citizens to social protection, TÁRKI Social Research Institute, Research note n. 10 by EU Commission, Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion May et al. (2013), Letter to the presidency of the European Council for Justice and Home Affairs, 23rd April 2013 Maas W. (2013), Free Movement and Discrimination: Evidence from Europe, the United States, and Canada, European Journal of Migration and Law n. 15, p. 91–110 Nyman P. and Ahlskog R. (2018), Fiscal Effects of Intra-EEA Migration, Uppsala University, REMINDER Project WP March 18 Otto A. (2017), A Benefit Recipiency Approach to Analysing Differences and Similarities in European Welfare Provision, Springer Science + Business Media Dordrecht 2017 Pacolet J. and De Wispelaere F. (2015), Export of family benefits Analysis of the economic impact of the

• ptions, HIVA center at KU Leuven, Report prepared for the European Commission

Pascouau Y. (2013), Strong attack against the freedom of movement of EU citizens: turning back the clock, article published on „European Policy Centre‟ website, 30th April 2013

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References (III)

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? PAPER 1_PhD Candidate MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI

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Recchi E. (2016), Mobile Europe. The Theory and Practice of Free Movement in the EU, Palgrave Macmillan, London ISBN 978-1-349-59147-3 Reyneri E. (2016), Needed but not Welcomed: Immigrants in the European Labour Markets, chapter 3 in “Europe: No Migrant‟s Land?” book edited by Maurizio Ambrosini, ISPI Ruhs M. and Palme J. (2018), Understanding the political conflicts around free movement in the European Union: A conceptual framework for an institutional analysis, REMINDER Project Working Paper, May 2018 Ruhs M. (2015), Is unrestricted immigration compatible with inclusive welfare states? The (un)sustainability of EU exceptionalism, Centre on Migration, Policy and Society, University of Oxford, WP n. 125 Rowthorn R. (2014), Large-scale Immigration: Its Economic and Demographic Consequences for the UK, Civitas London Pellizzari M. (2011), The Use of Welfare by Migrants in Italy, IZA Discussion Paper N. 5613, April 2011 Van Der Brug W. et al. (2015), The Politicization of Migration, London Taylor & Francis Van Oorschot W. (2013), Comparative Welfare State Analysis with Survey-Based Benefit: Recipiency Data: The ‘Dependent Variable Problem’ Revisited, European Journal of Social Security, Vol. 15 n.3 Vargas-Silva, C. (2015), The Fiscal Impact of Immigration in the UK, Oxford: COMPASS Verschueren H. (2007), European (internal) migration law as an instrument for defining the boundaries of national solidarity systems, European Journal of Migration and Law n° 9 Zimmermann K. et al. (2012), Study on Active Inclusion of Migrants: Final report, Economic and Social Research Institute, IZA Research Report n. 43

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References (IV)

Intra-EU Mobility : Who Receives Which Benefits ? Research Design of PAPER 1_MARIA GIULIA MONTANARI 20