The Impact of Dual Credit on Student Outcomes Student Futures Network Michael Villarreal, Ph.D. michael.villarreal@raymarshallcenter.org A Presentation at Collin College on 5April2018
Policy Background § A dual credit class is a college-level course in which eligible high school students can enroll to simultaneously earn high school and college credit. § Dual-credit courses are the product of collaborations between a school district and a local college. Community colleges are the primary higher education sponsors of dual-credit programs. § Dual credit is popular with students and state legislators of both parties. § Dual credit courses vary in subject, education of instructor, and mode and location of instruction.
Why and how dual credit improves student outcomes: Financial cost of college Foregone wages while in college Information to support a student’s decision to enroll in college Core academic concepts and study skills College knowledge
Research Questions 1. Does dual credit participation cause more students to pursue a two- and four-year college degree, respectively? 2. Does dual credit participation cause an increase in university admissions? 3. Does dual credit participation increase educational attainment levels, measured by increasing rates of high school graduation and associate, bachelor’s, and graduate degree attainment, respectively? 4. Does dual credit participation decrease time to degree for students pursuing an associates and bachelor’s degree, respectively?
Research Questions 5. Do marginal increases in dual credit participation produce positive marginal benefits – is more dual credit better? 6. Are dual-credit effects on student outcomes larger than those produced by Advanced Placement (AP) courses? 7. Do dual-credit effect sizes vary by course subject, mode of instruction, location of instruction, or instructor’s highest degree earned?
Literature Review • Dual credit (DC) improves rates of high school graduation, college enrollment, college persistence, college GPA, and college degree completion. • More DC increases the likelihood of college enrollment and completion. • Academic DC (English, math, social sciences, science and foreign languages) produced large effects on most postsecondary outcomes than career and technically oriented DC • Math DC produces larger effect sizes on degree completion than other academic DC subjects • DC exhibited the greatest effects for minority, male, and low-income students • DC produces effect sizes larger than advanced non-DC high school courses that were not on most postsecondary outcomes examined, including bachelor’s degree completion rates • DC increases postsecondary enrollment greater than AP; while AP increases four-year college enrollment greater than DC • No difference found between AP and DC impacts on bachelor’s degree attainment • Sources: Allen and Dadgar, 2012; An, 2013; Hughes, 2016; Giani et al, 2016; Karp et al, 2007; Speroni, 2011; Swanson, 2008
Data: Study Sample and Study Period § 3,321,366 public high school students § 1,173 public school districts § Academic years 2001 to 2011. § 11 cohorts § 10,828 observations
Methodology: School District fixed-effects regression analysis using Linear Prob. Models § Unit of analysis is the school district. § Each school district serves as its own control group. § Postsecondary outcomes, such as percent of students enrolling in college, are observed for each 9 th grade cohort of a school district and compared to their participation rates of dual credit and AP credit earned while controlling for certain student attributes.
Scatter Plot for One School District 16% Postsecondary degree 14% 12% 10% 8% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% Dual Credit Research design also controls for: § Time-invariant school attributes § AP participation § Changing student demographics § Changing student academic performance in 8 th grade § Time fixed-effects
Table 1. The Frequency of Declines in Dual-Credit Participation by School Districts Across Eleven Cohorts of High School Students Declines Frequency Percent 0 90 8% 1 82 7% 2 98 8% 3 213 18% 4 318 27% 5 253 22% 6 100 9% 7 19 2% 8 0 0% 9 0 0% 10 0 0% Total 1173 100% Note: This study followed eleven cohorts of Texas public high school students starting in the year they entered high school. The study period was from 2001 to 2011. The above table describes the frequency of declines in dual-credit participation across time by 1173 school districts in the study population. Eighty eight school districts experienced no declines, while one experienced eight declines.
Estimated Effects of Earning One of More Dual Credit (DC) and Advanced Placement Credit (AP) on Student Outcomes, Respectively Baseline DC AP Estimate Student Outcomes Obs ISD's Coeff/(SE) Coeff/(SE) Mean/(SD) High School Grad Rate Year 4 0.066 0.123 0.729 12,021 1,173 (0.011)*** (0.011)*** (0.164) Univ App Rate Year 5 0.100 0.160 0.260 12,021 1,173 (0.014)*** (0.015)*** (0.195) Univ Admit Rate Year 5 0.096 0.117 0.221 12,021 1,173 (0.015)*** (0.013)*** (0.210) Univ Enroll Rate Year 5 0.082 0.079 0.200 12,021 1,173 (0.010)*** (0.009)*** (0.146) Comm College Enroll Rate Year 5 0.023 0.064 0.309 12,021 1,173 (0.012)+ (0.011)*** (0.176)
Estimated Effects of Earning One of More Dual Credit (DC) and Advanced Placement Credit (AP) on Student Outcomes, Respectively Baseline DC AP Estimate Student Outcomes Obs ISD's Coeff/(SE) (0.012)+ (0.011)*** Coeff/(SE) Mean/(SD) (0.176) High School Grad Rate Year 4 0.066 0.123 0.729 12,021 1,173 Associates Grad Rate Year 6 0.021 -0.002 0.008 10,916 1,166 (0.004)*** (0.004) (0.049) Associates Grad Rate Year 8 0.018 0.005 0.033 8,708 1,140 (0.005)*** (0.004) (0.051) Bachelor's Grad Rate Year 8 0.051 0.029 0.070 8,708 1,140 (0.005)*** (0.004)*** (0.055) Bachelor's Grad Rate Year 10 0.056 0.097 0.155 6,535 1,122 (0.009)*** (0.009)*** (0.071) Bachelor's Grad Rate Year 12 0.063 0.115 0.180 4,344 1,115 (0.014)*** (0.012)*** (0.083) Graduate Degree Grad Rate Year 12 0.008 0.024 0.022 4,344 1,115 (0.004)* (0.004)*** (0.021) Graduate Degree Grad Rate Year 13 0.003 0.029 0.028 3,250 1,107
Change in Student Outcomes by Increasing Levels of Average Credit Earned in Dual Credit and AP Credit, in semester credit hours Community College Enrollment Rate by Year 5 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 Semester Credit Hours Dual Credit Advanced Placement
Change in Student Outcomes by Increasing Levels of Average Credit Earned in Dual Credit and AP Credit, in semester credit hours University Enrollment Rate by Year 5 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 Semester Credit Hours Dual Credit Advanced Placement
Change in Student Outcomes by Increasing Levels of Average Credit Earned in Dual Credit and AP Credit, in semester credit hours Associate Graduation Rate by Year 6 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 Semester Credit Hours Dual Credit Advanced Placement
Change in Student Outcomes by Increasing Levels of Average Credit Earned in Dual Credit and AP Credit, in semester credit hours Bachelor's Graduation Rate by Year 10 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 Semester Credit Hours Dual Credit Advanced Placement
Other Findings • English, Social Science, Math, Science, Foreign Language, and Computer Science dual credit were associated with pronounced effects. • No statistically significant difference found between dual credit impacts produced by master’s-degreed and doctorate-degreed instructors
Other Findings • Computer-based modes of instruction produced pronounced impacts but only on high school graduation. • Evidence suggests that dual credit earned on community college campuses produces a pronounced impact on associate degree completion.
Descriptive Analysis of Dual Credit in Collin County
100 of the 8 th Graders enrolled in fall of 2006… Collin 2006 Fall 8 th Graders 85 graduated from high school… 69 enrolled in college (50 community college, 19 university)… 34 completed (1 certificate, 6.3 associates, 26.9 bachelor’s of which 6 transferred from community college, and 18 were co-enrolled at a community college at some point) Note: 19,415 8 th graders comprised the study population. Students are followed for 10 years after eighth grade to calculate the above outcomes. There are more bachelor-degree earners than those that first enrolled in a university because of transfer students who completed their bachelor’s degree. Figures are rounded to nearest whole number.
100 of the 8 th Graders enrolled in fall of 2006… Collin 2006 Fall 8 th Graders D.C. 85 graduated from high school… 14 earned dual credit… 13 enrolled in college (12.75 community college, 0.3 university) 93% 8 completed (0.25 certificate, 1.35 associates, 6.5 bachelor’s) 62% N = 8,431
100 of the 8 th Graders enrolled in fall of 2006… Collin 2006 Fall 8 th Graders Non-D.C. 85 graduated from high school… 71 did not earn dual credit… 56 enrolled in college (37 community college, 19 university) 79% 26 completed (1 certificate, 5 associates, 20 bachelor’s) 46%
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