SLIDE 1 The Global Forest and Agricultural The Global Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model Sector Optimization Model
Uwe Uwe A. Schneider
Christine Christine Schleupner Schleupner Kerstin Kerstin Jantke Jantke Erwin Erwin Schmid Schmid Michael Michael Obersteiner Obersteiner
Energy Modeling Forum 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabiliza Energy Modeling Forum 22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilization tion and in Transition, Tsukuba, Japan, December 12 and in Transition, Tsukuba, Japan, December 12-
14, 2006
SLIDE 2 Why Global FASOM? Why Global FASOM?
Global Trade Global Trade Pollution Leakage Pollution Leakage Global Externalities Global Externalities Heterogeneity Heterogeneity
– – Soils Soils – – Land management Land management
SLIDE 3 Methodological Developments Methodological Developments
1.
- 1. Regional Expansion (Global FASOM)
Regional Expansion (Global FASOM)
2.
Soil State Dynamics
3.
Biodiversity
SLIDE 4
- 1. Regional Expansion
- 1. Regional Expansion
Global FASOM Global FASOM
SLIDE 5 FASOM History FASOM History
US (1993 US (1993-
) EU (2004 EU (2004-
) Global (2006 Global (2006-
)
SLIDE 6 US/EU Regions US/EU Regions
Resources Land Use Technologies Processing Technologies Products Markets Inputs Limits Supply Functions Trade Demand Capacities Environmental Impacts
SLIDE 7 Non Non-
US/EU Regions
Resources Land Use Technologies Processing Technologies Products Markets Inputs Limits Supply Functions Trade Demand Capacities Environmental Impacts
Supply
SLIDE 8 Tasks Tasks
US + EU FASOM + others US + EU FASOM + others Balance Regional Resolution Balance Regional Resolution Land use in non Land use in non-
US / non-
EU – – Microeconomics (Data) Microeconomics (Data) – – Environmental impacts (Simulation) Environmental impacts (Simulation)
SLIDE 9
- 2. Soil State Dynamics
- 2. Soil State Dynamics
SLIDE 10
Why Soil State Dynamics? Why Soil State Dynamics?
Vulnerability (Humus, Salt) Vulnerability (Humus, Salt) Climate Mitigation Climate Mitigation Productivity Productivity Desertification, Desertification, Salinization Salinization
SLIDE 11
Soil Carbon Determinants Soil Carbon Determinants
Crop Choice Crop Choice Tillage Tillage Irrigation Irrigation Fertilization Fertilization Residue Mgt Residue Mgt Soil Carbon Soil Carbon Soil Soil Carbon Carbon Change Change
SLIDE 12
1 2 3 10 20 30 40 50 percentage change years
Cereal Straw Removal Cereal Straw Removal
Soil Organic Carbon Yields
SLIDE 13 Soil Organic Carbon (tC/ha/20cm) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 20 30 40 50 Time (years) Wheat-Lucerne 3/3 Wheat-Lucerne 6/3 No-till wheat-fallow Tilled wheat-fallow
SLIDE 14
Previous Previous
Curse of Dimensionality Curse of Dimensionality Use of constant emission/sequestration Use of constant emission/sequestration coefficients coefficients
New Development New Development
Markov chain using soil organic carbon as Markov chain using soil organic carbon as state variable (Schneider, 2007) state variable (Schneider, 2007)
SLIDE 15 Soil Carbon Transition Probabilities Soil Carbon Transition Probabilities
SOC1 SOC2 SOC3 SOC4 SOC5 SOC6 SOC7 SOC8 SOC1 0.81 0.19 SOC2 1 SOC3 0.09 0.91 SOC4 0.31 0.69 SOC5 0.5 0.5 SOC6 0.74 0.26 SOC7 1 SOC8 0.04 0.96 No-till wheat-Fallow
SLIDE 16 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 20 30 40 50 Time (years) Wheat-Lucerne 3/3 Wheat-Lucerne 6/3 No-till wheat-fallow Tilled wheat-fallow Soil Organic Carbon (tC/ha/20cm)
SLIDE 17
Extensions Extensions
Soil Carbon Types Soil Carbon Types Salt Salt
SLIDE 18
- 3. Biodiversity
- 3. Biodiversity
SLIDE 19 Previous Treatment Previous Treatment
So far biodiversity is ignored in FASOM So far biodiversity is ignored in FASOM Comparable models use biodiversity scores Comparable models use biodiversity scores
New Development New Development
Species or habitat requirements Species or habitat requirements Habitat supply Habitat supply Currently limited to wetlands Currently limited to wetlands
SLIDE 20 Vertebrate species as surrogates for Vertebrate species as surrogates for biodiversity biodiversity
– – 16 amphibians 16 amphibians – – 4 reptiles 4 reptiles – – 9 mammals 9 mammals – – 43 birds 43 birds
Habitat Requirements Habitat Requirements
72 wetland species of European conservation concern
SLIDE 21
Multiple species may require the same Multiple species may require the same habitat habitat Eligible habitats must be of minimum size Eligible habitats must be of minimum size
Habitat Requirements Habitat Requirements
SLIDE 22 Habitat Supply Habitat Supply
Ecosystem Type Ecosystem Type
– –
- 1. Mires (Bogs, Fens)
- 1. Mires (Bogs, Fens)
– –
- 2. Wet forests (Alluvial Forests, Swamp Forests)
- 2. Wet forests (Alluvial Forests, Swamp Forests)
– –
- 3. Natural Grasslands
- 3. Natural Grasslands
– –
- 4. Open waters (Running Waters, Standing Waters)
- 4. Open waters (Running Waters, Standing Waters)
Ecosystem Quality Ecosystem Quality
1. 1. Existing, Inhabited Existing, Inhabited 2. 2. Existing, Not inhabited Existing, Not inhabited 3. 3. Potential Potential
SLIDE 23 Peatland (Fens, Bogs) Wetforests Marshes, Reeds, Sedges Open Waters
SLIDE 24 Peatland (Fens, Bogs) Wetforests Marshes, Reeds, Sedges Open Waters
SLIDE 25 Existing Wetlands Potential Wetlands Open Waters
SLIDE 26 Existing Wetlands Potential Wetlands Open Waters
SLIDE 27 Conclusions Conclusions
Land use (change) may play an important Land use (change) may play an important new role via climate change mitigation new role via climate change mitigation However, land use impacts are complex However, land use impacts are complex and affect multiple non and affect multiple non-
market goods We should not solve today We should not solve today’ ’s problem by s problem by creating another one tomorrow creating another one tomorrow Land use under multiple environmental Land use under multiple environmental
- bjectives may be much different than
- bjectives may be much different than
under single (climate) objectives under single (climate) objectives
SLIDE 28
Global Environmental Treaties Global Environmental Treaties
Framework Convention on Climate Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992) Change (UNFCCC, 1992) Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 1992) 1992) Convention to Combat Desertification Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD, 1996) (UNCCD, 1996)
SLIDE 29 References References
Schneider, U. A. (2007). Schneider, U. A. (2007). Soil organic carbon Soil organic carbon changes in dynamic land use decision changes in dynamic land use decision models models. . Agriculture, Ecosystems and Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment
. In print.
