SLIDE 1
1
The Future of Fuels: Toward the Next Decade of Energy Policy for Renewables.
Douglas J. Arent Executive Director RFF 60th Anniversary November 2012
2
World Outlook: Power Generation
Net Annual Capacity Additions GW
WEO, 2012
The Future of Fuels: Toward the Next Decade of Energy Policy for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Future of Fuels: Toward the Next Decade of Energy Policy for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Future of Fuels: Toward the Next Decade of Energy Policy for Renewables. Douglas J. Arent Executive Director RFF 60 th Anniversary November 2012 1 World Outlook: Power Generation Net Annual Capacity Additions GW WEO, 2012 2 US
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
3
US Outlook: Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 2010 to 2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Coal 313 (30%) Natural gas 350 (34%) Hydropower* 101 (10%) Nuclear 101 (10%) Other renewables 16 (2%) Other fossil 111 (11%)
* Includes pumped storage
Coal 11 (5%) Natural gas 142 (60%) Hydropower* 3 (1%) Nuclear 9 (4%) Other renewables 34 (14%) Other fossil 1 (0.4%) 2010 capacity Capacity additions 2010 to 2035 1,036 gigawatts 235 gigawatts Wind 30 (13%) Wind 39 (4%) End-use coal 4 (0.4%) End-use coal 6 (2%)
SLIDE 4
4
Alternative Scenarios: Non-hydro renewable sources grow 3-4x, with economic growth, or with a price on CO2
non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
2025 2035 Wind Biomass Geothermal Solar Municipal waste
Coal Cost Gas Price Economic Growth Coal Cost Gas Price Economic Growth
SLIDE 5
5
Other Policy Options: Clean Electricity Standard
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Annual Electricity Generation (TWh) CES High-EUR
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Annual Electricity Generation (TWh) CES High-EUR, No-CCS
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Annual Electricity Generation (TWh) CES Low-EUR
Offshore Wind Onshore Wind PV CSP Other RE Hydropower NG-CCS NG-CT NG-CC Oil/Gas Steam Coal-CCS Coal-New Coal-Existing Nuclear Demand
- A CES generally leads to greater NG power generation in the near-term followed by
reliance on RE (and to a lesser degree, CCS and nuclear) in the long-term
- Under a CES, 2050 RE power generation is significant even with high EUR and CCS
deployment: 38% wind, 9% solar, 7% hydro, 3% other RE
- New nuclear capacity expansion is more limited under cost assumptions used
SLIDE 6
6 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Baseline 30% RE 40% RE 50% RE 60% RE 70% RE 80% RE 90% RE % of Total Generated Electricity Percent RE Wind PV CSP Hydropower Geothermal Biomass Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Variable Generation
Renewable Electricity Futures Study
80% RETs meets ―resource adequacy‖ reliability criteria and hourly supply and demand RE-ITI scenarios
Renewable Electricity Futures Study (2012)
SLIDE 7
7
Emerging Energy Policy Dynamics
SLIDE 8
8
Some Observations…
- Globally
– 118 Countries with supportive policy environments – Continued Growth: 2-4x by 2035
- Fulfilling Announced Commitments – G20, Durban, SE4All…
- Policy Stability Critical
- Addressing Climate Change directly or through ―2nd Best‖
Policies
SLIDE 9
9
- Internationally:
- Work within WTO, Trade Agreements, etc to recognize and
leverage global learning into local deployment and local jobs. E.g.,
- 21St Century Power Partnership under Clean Energy Ministerial
- Domestically:
- Near Term: Transitional Fiscal Policies & Access to New Financial
Structures
- MLPP Act, REITs, PTC/ITC
- Policy Actions that Mindfully Address the Interdependencies and
Critical Nature of Energy:; e.g.,
- Synergies with Natural Gas over medium to long term—e.g. CES +
NSPS
- Innovation: Energy Systems Integration & Technology Advancements
- Modernization: Resilient, Efficient and ―Smart‖ Infrastructure
- State Policies will continue to play strong role: RPS, FITs, Carbon,