Social Science Social Science and Fuels and Fuels Management: Management: Management: Management: A US perspective A US perspective A US perspective A US perspective Sarah McCaffrey Sarah McCaffrey Sarah McCaffrey, Sarah McCaffrey, Research Social Scientist Research Social Scientist USDA Forest Service, Northern USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station Research Station 847 847- -866 866- -9311 ex 20 9311 ex 20 smccaffrey@fs.fed.us smccaffrey@fs.fed.us smccaffrey@fs fed us smccaffrey@fs fed us CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Research Sites Research Sites CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Previous Research Previous Research Public views and acceptance of fuels management management • Acceptability of prescribed fire, thinning defensible space thinning, defensible space • Perception of wildfire risk • Role of forest context, aesthetics, • Role of forest context aesthetics and future conditions CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Previous Research Previous Research Working with homeowners and homeowners and communities • Effective communication Effective communication programs • Role of community leaders R l f it l d and neighborhood organizations i ti CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Be Careful of Conventional Be Careful of Conventional Wi d Wi d Wisdom Wisdom Smokey has taught the public to think all fire Smokey has taught the public to think all fire is bad. But….. 80% see prescribed fire and thinning as 80% ib d fi d thi i appropriate management tools • Roughly 30% give strong approval & another 50% give qualified approval • Thinning generally slightly higher approval CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Defensible Space Defensible Space p 65-75% removed vegetation on their property. Concerns about privacy, seeing wildlife, aesthetics, and C b t i i ildlif th ti d naturalness shape willingness to modify vegetation. CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
CW - CW - Risk Risk - - They don’t understand it… They don’t understand it… y (Actually they do, but…..) (Actually they do, but…..) � Risk is a complex and subjective concept Risk is a complex and subjective concept � Risk = Probability + consequences � Risk = Probability + consequences Risk = Probability + consequences Risk = Probability + consequences Technical assessment vs. Lay assessment Technical assessment vs. Lay assessment � Factors to consider Factors to consider Factors to consider Factors to consider – timeframe, spatial extent, type of damage timeframe spatial extent type of damage timeframe spatial extent type of damage timeframe, spatial extent, type of damage � � � Higher risk perception does not necessarily lead Higher risk perception does not necessarily lead t to action. It is a necessary but not sufficient to action. It is a necessary but not sufficient t ti ti It i It i b t b t t t ffi i ffi i t t condition condition CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Risk Perception Risk Perception What goes into public conception of fire What goes into public conception of fire risk? risk? risk? risk? 1. Environmental factors Environmental factors 1. 2. Ignition sources, Ignition sources, generally people generally people 2. (stupid ones) but also lightning (stupid ones) but also lightning (stupid ones) but also lightning (stupid ones) but also lightning 3. Impact Impact 3. � Human Human – – homes, lives, health, homes, lives, health, – – stronger stronger emphasis on human damage emphasis on human damage � Environmental Environmental – – the forest, wildlife the forest, wildlife CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Risk Risk Perception Perception • Clear pattern of vicinity residents having a higher RP than interface and intermix •Balancing benefits and self-selection….. Mary: We aren’t allowed to burn at all at my house. Alice: Well, you are in a canopy. You are right there , y py g in a canopy. That’s one reason we didn’t buy up there, I was terrified. (Flagstaff) (Flagstaff) CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Demographic Conventional Wisdom Demographic Conventional Wisdom g g p p No consistent evidence that: No consistent evidence that: � Experiencing a wildfire increases proactive Experiencing a wildfire increases proactive attitudes attitudes attitudes attitudes � Longer term residents are more aware and/or Longer term residents are more aware and/or active in relation to fire mitigation active in relation to fire mitigation active in relation to fire mitigation active in relation to fire mitigation � Seasonal homeowners are less likely to Seasonal homeowners are less likely to understand fire risk than permanent understand fire risk than permanent d d t t d fi d fi i k th i k th t t CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Understanding = Acceptance Understanding = Acceptance Ecological benefits particularly important Ecological benefits particularly important in acceptance in acceptance in acceptance in acceptance CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Understanding = Acceptance Understanding = Acceptance � Massachusetts: Massachusetts: Knowledge most Knowledge most significant predictor of support for significant predictor of support for significant predictor of support for significant predictor of support for prescribed burning prescribed burning � Those with some knowledge of PB were Those with some knowledge of PB were less less likely likely to: to: � think it was too dangerous a practice to be used, thi k it think it was too dangerous a practice to be used, thi k it t t d d ti ti t t b b d d � be concerned about prescribed fires near a be concerned about prescribed fires near a home and home and home, and home, and � be concerned about smoke, appearance, and its be concerned about smoke, appearance, and its effects on wildlife and wildlife habitat. effects on wildlife and wildlife habitat. effects on wildlife and wildlife habitat. effects on wildlife and wildlife habitat. CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Understanding = Acceptance Understanding = Acceptance Understanding Acceptance Understanding Acceptance Support for fuels management practices often Support for fuels management practices often are not directly related to reducing the fire are not directly related to reducing the fire are not directly related to reducing the fire are not directly related to reducing the fire hazard . hazard Fuels management: Fuels management: Forest health & wildlife Forest health & wildlife habitat habitat (WI MN MI survey) habitat habitat (WI, MN, MI survey) (WI MN MI survey) (WI, MN, MI survey) � 40% rated managing 40% rated managing healthy healthy forests as the most forests as the most important management issue important management issue p p g g � 12% rated 12% rated reducing wildfire risk reducing wildfire risk as most as most important important CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
Prescribed Fire Acceptance Prescribed Fire Acceptance - esc bed esc bed e e ccepta ce ccepta ce - Escape Escape scape scape � Vogt/Winter study concern about escape was Vogt/Winter study concern about escape was ogt/ ogt/ te study co ce te study co ce about escape about escape as as negatively related to acceptance (MI, MO, FL, CA) negatively related to acceptance (MI, MO, FL, CA) � But part of issue may be views based on a limited But part of issue may be views based on a limited But part of issue may be views based on a limited But part of issue may be views based on a limited sample sample – – only hear about escapes only hear about escapes – – not successes not successes � The only time you hear it is always the bad fires. I think that � The only time you hear it is always the bad fires. I think that The only time you hear it is always the bad fires. I think that The only time you hear it is always the bad fires. I think that they they (prescribed burns) (prescribed burns) are helping us a lot. I would say are helping us a lot. I would say approximately 5% goes out of hand. (San Bernardino) approximately 5% goes out of hand. (San Bernardino) � I think we need to know more. Just like John said, if 90% of I think we need to know more. Just like John said, if 90% of them are successful, we need to know about it. But we just them are successful, we need to know about it. But we just hear about the ones that aren’t hear about the ones that aren’t hear about the ones that aren t. (Reno) hear about the ones that aren t. (Reno) (Reno) (Reno) CRC CRC- -DSE DSE- - McCaffrey McCaffrey March 17, 2009 March 17, 2009
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