SLIDE 1
The future is now: How climate change has altered coastal ecosystem function and what can be done to make these systems more resilient
Christopher J. Gobler
The future is now : How climate change has altered coastal - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The future is now : How climate change has altered coastal - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The future is now : How climate change has altered coastal ecosystem function and what can be done to make these systems more resilient Christopher J. Gobler Projected 21 st century temperature trends Ocean acidification Addition of acid Loss
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Ocean acidification
Addition of acid Loss of carbonate
SLIDE 4
Ocean acidification
Caldeira and Wickett 2003
SLIDE 5
, Stanford University
SLIDE 6
The future
Stippling highlights watersheds with a robust change in total nitrogen flux (2030) (2070)
SLIDE 7
The future is now…
SLIDE 8
Calcifying organisms vulnerable to ocean acidification
(Orr et al 2005; Doney et al 2009; Reise et al 2009; Talmage and Gobler 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012)
SLIDE 9
Top 10 fisheries in NYS, 2017, NMFS data
The success of NY’s fisheries depends on bivalve shellfish. As filter feeders, bivalves rely directly on phytoplankton for food.
2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 Dollars
SLIDE 10
Abraham and Dillon 1986
Early life stage bivalves
SLIDE 11
20 40 60 80 250 390 750 1500 Percent survival CO2 (ppm) Bay scallop Hard clam
SLIDE 12
Hard clam Bay scallops
Low CO2 High CO2
Talmage and Gobler, 2010
SLIDE 13
SLIDE 14
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Hard Clam landings from Great South Bay in bushels
NY bay scallop landings
Landings of bivalves in NY
SLIDE 15
The future is now…
SLIDE 16
Chan anges i in global al ocean an t temperatures, , 1982-20 2012 12
Baumann and Doherty, 2013, PLoS One
SLIDE 17
35-year tr trend, s , summer w water temperature a aroun und Long I Island nd
19 19.5 20 20.5 21 21.5 22 22.5 23 23.5 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 June, July, August mean temperature
SLIDE 18
Samples for eelgrass genetic analyses
Harmful algal blooms across Long Island
Brown tide Rust Tide PSP DSP Toxic blue green algae Seaweeds
SLIDE 19
Global expansion of HABs
In the past 40 years, the public health, recreational, tourism, fishery, aquaculture, and ecosystem impacts of HABs have increased.
PSP PSP
SLIDE 20
PSP PSP
Why have HABs expanded?
- More comprehensive
monitoring and assessment
- Anthropogenic transport
- Anthropogenic nutrient
loading
- Climate change
SLIDE 21
SLIDE 22
Dinoph physis a acumina nata and diarr rrhetic sh shellf llfis ish poisoning ( g (DSP)
Okadaic acid
SLIDE 23
Global distribution of DSP, ~2010
SLIDE 24
Dinophysis a acumi minata, N , Nort
- rth Atla
tlantic t ic trend, 1 , 1982 - 2016 16
Trend in bloom season, days per year Trend in mean growth rate Gobler et al., 2017, PNAS
SLIDE 25
Dinophysis a acumi minata, N Northeast U US trend, 1 1982 82 - 2016 16
2011 2015 2000 Gobler et al., 2017, PNAS
SLIDE 26
Dinophysis acuminata, North Pacific, trend in bloom season
Days per yr Gobler et al., 2017, PNAS
SLIDE 27
Global DSP, recent North American expansion
Post-2011 Post- 1982 Post- 2000
SLIDE 28
Alexandrium red tides and paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) on Long Island
Alexandrium Saxitoxin
SLIDE 29
Alexandrium trend i nd in n bl bloom sea eason a n and nd growth rate, N , Nor
- rth
th Atlanti tic, 198 , 1982 - 2016 016
Trend in bloom season, days per year Trend in mean growth rate Gobler et al., 2017, PNAS
SLIDE 30
Alexandr ndrium um trend i in b bloom season N North P Pacific
Days per yr Gobler et al., 2017, PNAS
SLIDE 31
Glob
- bal
al P PSP e even ents
Gobler et al., 2017, PNAS
SLIDE 32
SLIDE 33
, Stanford University
SLIDE 34
SLIDE 35
Nutrient discharge into coastal zone Nutrients stimulate algal blooms Decay of algae = ↑CO2, ↓ pH, ↓ DO
SLIDE 36
Long Island Sound, August 2012
Western half:
- Dissolved oxygen < 4 mg L-1
- pH < 7.4 (total scale)
- pCO2> 2,000 ppm
- Ωaragonite < 1
- What are the seasonal patterns of
dissolved oxygen and pH?
- CTDEP record 2010-2012
NYC Wallace et al, 2014, ECCS
SLIDE 37
Excessive nutrient loading exacerbates acidification and many HABs.
Mitigating excessive nutrient loading to coastal zones will make them more resilient to impending climate change.
SLIDE 38
Conclusions:
- Ocean acidification since the Industrial Revolution has contributed to
the declines in the populations of calcifying bivalves.
- For multiple regions of the North Atlantic and some regions of the
North Pacific ocean warming has expanded the potential niche of PSP and DSP causing HABs since 1982.
- Excessive nutrient loading can and will synergistically intensify ocean
acidification and HABs.
- Mitigating nutrient loading can promote resilence against climate
change
SLIDE 39