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Climate Change Implications for Coastal Communities More - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Climate Change Implications for Coastal Communities More - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Climate Change Implications for Coastal Communities More Inconvenient Truths Marcia Berman Center for Coastal Resources Management May, 2007 Implications for Coastal Communities Sea level rise Increased risk of coastal flooding
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Implications for Coastal Communities
- Sea level rise
- Increased risk of coastal flooding
- Increase severity of storm conditions
– bigger – stronger – more frequent
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Effective coastal planning is essential Know your risks and plan for them
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Chesapeake Bay Sea Level (1900-2000)
NOAA/NOS
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Lands Vulnerable to Sea-Level Rise in the Mid-Atlantic Region
(From EPA, Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment)
Sea Level Rise U.S. coast : 2.5 - 3.0mm/yr (10-12 in/century) Chesapeake: 3.0 - 4.0mm/yr (12-15 in/century)
1.5 meters 3.5 meters Over 3.5 meters No Data
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Erosion of our first line of defense → reduction in shoreline protection
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Salt water intrusion into shallow water aquifers → water supply issues
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Higher water level base → increased flooding
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The severity of flood events is exacerbated by ….
- Low lying topography of the coastal plain
- Presence of highly erodible soils
- Storm surge and tidal surges
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FEMA FIRM MAPS
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Future Storm Predictions
- bigger
- stronger
- more frequent
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Deconstructing a storm
what makes a storm really bad?
- Drop in atmospheric pressure → rise in water level (surge)
- Wind blowing over the water → onshore pile-up of water
- Storm path → which side of the storm are you on
- Astronomical tide → where in the monthly tide cycle
- Forward speed of the storm → how long will it last
- Sea level rise → long term changes in base water levels
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Deconstructing a storm
what makes a storm really bad?
- Drop in atmospheric pressure → rise in water level (surge)
- Wind blowing over the water → onshore pile-up of water
- Storm path → which side of the storm are you on
- Astronomical tide → where in the monthly tide cycle
- Forward speed of the storm → how long will it last
- Sea level rise → long term changes in base water levels
….. STORM TIDE
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What is Storm Tide?
Storm Tide = Storm Surge + Astronomical tide
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HURRICANE ISABEL
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Walking a Fine Line
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Coastal Planning Know your risks and plan for them
- Storm Surge Modeling
- Shoreline Change Analysis
- Erosion Vulnerability Assessment
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Storm Surge Modeling
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Long term records of shoreline change illustrate shoreline response to BOTH normal and catastrophic events
JAMESTOWN ISLAND
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Erosion rate of 1 ft/yr or 50 ft/50yr.
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Erosion rate of 1 ft/yr or 50 ft/50yr. Erosion rate of 3 ft/yr or 150 ft/50yr.
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Erosion rate of 1 ft/yr or 50 ft/50yr. Erosion rate of 6 ft/yr or 300 ft/50yr.
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Coastal communities are a unique ecosystem
- f individuals who choose to live with great
risk to personal safety and private property Will damages from severe weather become worse in coastal regions?
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From Pew Center on Global Climate Change