The Flexible Prosumer: Measuring the Willingness to Co-Create - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Flexible Prosumer: Measuring the Willingness to Co-Create - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 21, 2022 138 likes •316 views

The Prosumer The Flexible Prosumer: Measuring the Willingness to Co-Create Distributed Ancillary Services Merla Kubli, Moritz Loock, Rolf Wstenhagen* Good Energies Chair for Management of Renewable Energies Institute for Economy and the

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The Flexible Prosumer:

Measuring the Willingness to Co-Create Distributed Ancillary Services

Merla Kubli, Moritz Loock, Rolf Wüstenhagen* Good Energies Chair for Management of Renewable Energies Institute for Economy and the Environment (IWÖ-HSG) University of St. Gallen Vienna, 5 September 2017

merla.kubli@unisg.ch, moritz.loock@unisg.ch, rolf.wuestenhagen@unisg.ch http://goodenergies.iwoe.unisg.ch The Prosumer

* presenter

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Outline

1. Background and Problem 2. Research Questions 3. Data and Methods 4. Results 5. Discussion

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Strong growth in fluctuating renewables leads to search for new forms of flexibility

0.1%* 10% 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Installed PV Capacity in Bavaria [MW]

http://www.energieatlas.bayern.de/thema_sonne/photovoltaik/daten.html *) Per cent of Bavarian power supply

Solar 17 GW (22%) Wind 25 GW (33%)

http://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/topics/-agothem-/Produkt/produkt/76/Agorameter/

Germany, August 2015: >50% of electricity from PV & wind in certain hours

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Providing Flexibility in the Electricity Market

Old style New style

The Prosumer Flexibility?

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Our Research Approach: Investigating prosumers’ willingness to provide flexibility in three technology areas

1) Electric Vehicles 2) Heat Pumps 3) PV + Battery SCCER Mobility HeatReserves EMPOWER

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Research Questions

1. To what extent are prosumers willing to co-create flexibility?* 2. Are there differences between the three technology domains?

*) Would owners of electric cars, heat pumps or PV+battery systems be willing give up some of their autonomy to use electricity whenever they want in exchange for a more favorable electricity contract?

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Data and sample

– N=902 people in Switzerland – Parallel survey in three technology areas (N= ca. 300 each) – Target population: People owning electric car/heat pump/PV+battery or interested in purchasing in the next 3 years – Recruiting via B2C online panel (including nearly 70’000 consumers) of a leading Swiss market research agency – Data collection January 2017

Owner 19% Interested 81%

EV

Owner 85% Interested 15%

Heat Pump

Owner 59% Interested 41%

PV+Battery

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Methodological Approach: Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis

Attribute Levels Monthly electricity cost 50 CHF 70 CHF 90 CHF 110 CHF Use of flexibility Super Flex Flex Medium Flex Light No Flex Electricty Mix (for remaining demand) 100% Unknown Origin 100% Nuclear 100% Hydro 100% Solar Contract duration 4 Years 2 Years 1 Year Can be cancelled anytime Technology specific attribute levels for “use of flexibility“

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PV+Battery

Super Flex 30% PV Self- Consumption; consumption data transmitted and used for forecasting Flex Medium 45% PV Self- Consumption; consumption data transmitted Flex Light 60% PV Self- Consumption;

  • nly data on

battery charging level transmitted No Flex 75% PV Self- Consumption; no data transmitted

Heat Pump

Super Flex Guaranteed room temperature 16°; 5 min. hot shower per day Flex Medium Guaranteed room temperature 18°; 10 min. hot shower per day Flex Light Guaranteed room temperature 20°; 15 min. hot shower per day No Flex Guaranteed room temperature 22°; Unlimited hot shower per day

Electric Cars

Super Flex Guaranteed charging level 40%; Unlimited amount

  • f discharging

cycles per 24 h Flex Medium Guaranteed charging level 60%;

  • max. 3 discharging

cycles per 24 h Flex Light Guaranteed charging level 80%;

  • max. 1 discharging

cycle per 24 h No Flex No access of utility

  • n battery
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Super Flex No Flex Flex Light Flex Medium Degrees of freedom for prosumer Degrees of freedom for supplier

Business models for distributed flexibility need to strike a balance between interests

  • f suppliers and prosumers
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Results: Comparison of part-worth utilities for attribute „Use of flexibility“

SuperFlex MediumFlex LightFlex NoFlex PV and Battery (N=301)

  • 14.9
  • 7.5

6.8 15.6 Heat Pumps (N=301)

  • 129.7
  • 32.6

49.8 112.6 Electric Vehicles (N=300)

  • 44.0
  • 4.8

21.4 27.5

  • 150.0
  • 100.0
  • 50.0

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 Zero centered part-worth utilities

Implicit Discomfort Cost (WTA): 3.85-20.40 CHF/month

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Conclusions

– To our knowledge, this is the first study systematically investigating prosumers’ willingness to co-create flexibility across three technology areas (N=902) – There is some willingness to co-create flexibility in exchange for more favorable electricity tariffs – Some forms of flexibility provision imply a higher cost of discomfort than others (e.g. heat vs. EV battery) – For utilities looking to mobilize distributed flexibility resources, electric car drivers and owners of PV+battery systems are lower hanging fruit than heat pump owners. – For energy policy, distributed flexibility can be seen as an alternative (or complement) to centralized flexibility options.

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Limitations and further research

– While we have carefully chosen attribute levels to make each of the three choice experiments as close to realistic decisions as possible, there is a trade-off between comparability and specificity of design. Further research can try to replicate our comparison across technology areas with different

  • perationalization of flexibility.

– We have yet to look into explanations for differences in willingness to co-create flexibility (e.g. sociodemographic, psychographic factors). – Replication in other countries would be interesting. 

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Thank you!

www.iwoe.unisg.ch

Gianluca Stricker (RollBrettClub Chur) @ Haldenstein, 05.05.2016, Photo: Daniel Ammann

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Backup Slides

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Results (1): Comparison of Importances

30.03% 7.62% 49.62% 12.74% 9.82% 60.57% 24.34% 5.27% 23.75% 17.89% 44.79% 13.56%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Monthly electricity costs Use of flexibility Electricity mix Contract duration Relative importance of attributes PV and Battery (N=301) Heat Pumps (N=301) Electric Vehicles (N=300)

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Results (2): Part-worth utilities of attribute levels in the three subsamples

Electric Vehicles (N=300) PV + Battery (n=301) Heat Pumps (N=301) Monthly power costs 110 CHF

  • 57.8
  • 72.5
  • 25.8

90 CHF

  • 5.4
  • 5.0

4.5 70 CHF 26.0 30.0 7.9 50 CHF 37.2 47.6 13.5 Use of flexibility SuperFlex

  • 44.0
  • 14.9
  • 129.7

FlexMedium

  • 4.8
  • 7.5
  • 32.6

FlexLight 21.4 6.8 49.8 NoFlex 27.5 15.6 112.6 Power mix Unknown origin

  • 89.1
  • 97.8
  • 49.1

Nuclear

  • 74.8
  • 74.6
  • 42.3

Hydro 73.8 71.8 43.1 Solar 90.1 100.6 48.3 Contract duration 4 years

  • 28.8
  • 25.9
  • 12.5

2 years

  • 1.4
  • 1.5

1.2 1 year 4.8 2.5 2.7 Cancel anytime 25.4 25.0 8.6