THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE REVOLUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON PEAK OIL DEMAND - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

the electric vehicle revolution and its impact on peak
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THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE REVOLUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON PEAK OIL DEMAND - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE REVOLUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON PEAK OIL DEMAND INDONESIAN GAS SOCIETY JAKARTA 20 TH NOVEMBER JUNE 2016 - SELECTED SLIDES JON FREDRIK MLLER PARTNER HEAD OF CONSULTING ASIA-PACIFIC When will we see peak oil demand?


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SLIDE 1

JUNE 2016

INDONESIAN GAS SOCIETY – JAKARTA 20TH NOVEMBER

  • SELECTED SLIDES

JON FREDRIK MÜLLER PARTNER – HEAD OF CONSULTING ASIA-PACIFIC

THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE REVOLUTION AND ITS IMPACT ON PEAK OIL DEMAND

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SLIDE 2

When will we see peak oil demand?

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis

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26% 18% 6% 6% 12% 6% 8% 6% 12%

95 mmbbl/d

Light duty vehicles (23%) and buses (2%) 1 billion (99.6% cars, 0.4% buses) Efficiency gains of 2-3% and substitution of cars by electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles Growth 2015-2040: ? Light and Heavy Trucks Global fleet of 340 million (80% Light). Few ready substitutes as of today Growth 2015-2040: 0.8% Aviation High underlying growth in aviation, especially in Asia, driven my middle class growth Growth 2015-2040: 1.9% Maritime Global trade growing. Slow substitution by LNG and Hydrogen. Growth 2015-2040: 0.9% Petrochemicals Plastic material and composites gaining market shares, strong demand from emerging markets Growth 2015-2040: 1.5% Steam and Process Still growing, driven by economic growth, but less growth due to efficiency gains. Growth 2015-2040: 0.5% Buildings Efficiency and better insolation Growth 2015-2040: -1.0% Power generation Gas and solar as main substitutes Growth 2015-2040: -2.4% Other (Agriculture, lubricants, etc.) Growth 2015-2040: 0.2%

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SLIDE 3

Norway – The world’s leading pilot market for EVs...

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2017:

  • 100,000 EVs in Norway
  • 175,000 New cars sold of which

40,000 EVs or Plug in hybrids

  • 135,000 scrapped per year
  • Growth ~ 40,000
  • Total of 3,070,000 cars in Norway;
  • f which, 3.1% are EVs
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SLIDE 4

…However, fuel consumption is still growing

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 jan/ 95 jul/ 95 jan/ 96 jul/ 96 jan/ 97 jul/ 97 jan/ 98 jul/ 98 jan/ 99 jul/ 99 jan/ 00 jul/ 00 jan/ 01 jul/ 01 jan/ 02 jul/ 02 jan/ 03 jul/ 03 jan/ 04 jul/ 04 jan/ 05 jul/ 05 jan/ 06 jul/ 06 jan/ 07 jul/ 07 jan/ 08 jul/ 08 jan/ 09 jul/ 09 jan/ 10 jul/ 10 jan/ 11 jul/ 11 jan/ 12 jul/ 12 jan/ 13 jul/ 13 jan/ 14 jul/ 14 jan/ 15 jul/ 15 jan/ 16 jul/ 16

Monthly fuel consumption in Norway

Diesel Gasoline 2016: +2.4% 2015: +1.3%

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SLIDE 5

Car manufacturer Total vehicle sales volume 2016 [million cars] BEV+PHEV share of 2016 sales [%] (cars) Target annual sales BEV+PHEV [million cars/ % of sale] Comments

2025: 3 million BEVs/PHEVs 10 BEV and PHEV models combined announced in year 2018 alone. 2025: 30 different BEV models and an unspecified number of additional PHEV models. Aiming at being the world’s leader in electric cars Sell 2-3 million BEVs equivalent to around 20–25% of the Group’s expected total unit sales. 2030: 3 million PHEV Toyota currently has 33 traditional hybrid passenger car models (HEV) and 1 plug-in hybrid (PHEV). Toyota claims conventional engines will have disappeared by 2050. Group recently made a U-turn in favor of Plug in hybrids, traditionally discriminating this power train in favor for simple (non-plug in ) hybrids 2020: 1.5 million BEV/PHEV The company expects 5% of all the cars will be electric by 2020 and 10% soon after. Intends to launch the first autonomous car by 2020. 20% of its sales in Europe in 2020 to be EVs. Before 2020, Nissan states to be able to reach a range of about 300 miles on a single battery charge 2020: 0.3 BEV/PHEV H-K plans to launch 31 eco-friendly cars: hybrids 21 (12), plug-ins (6), EVs 8 (2) and fuel- cells 2 (2) vehicles by 2020. Aim to become 2nd largest manufacturer of eco-friendly cars with annual sales of 300 000 (incl. PHEVs and Fuel Cell Vehicles) No stated estimate

  • r target

Company missed the target of having 500 000 electric cars on US roads by 2017. The company has high electric car ambitions for the future. Through 2020 GM will announce more than 10 new EV models. To launch 10 electric and hybrid vehicles by 2020 in the Chinese market alone 2025: ~1 million BEV/PHEV Ford plans USD 4.5 billion investment in 13 New EV models by 2020. Ford estimates that 40% of Ford models will be electrified by 2020. 2030: BEV/PHEV at 75% of sales Honda wants partially or fully electric vehicles to account for two-thirds of global sales by

  • 2030. Plug-ins and hybrids would likely account for about half of sales in 2030, and BEVs

will account for 25%. Plans to introduce BEV model in China in 2018 0.6 % 0.1 % 1.0 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.0 % 10.1 10.0 8.5 8.2 8.0 6.3 4.9

Global car manufacturers’ electric car production targets 1/3

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*Hydrogen cars (fuel-cells), HEVs (combines a conventional internal combustion system (ICE and an electric propulsion system); ** Assumed increased in sale for Renault Nissan similar to expected increase in global vehicle fleet; *** FCV=Fuel cell vehicle Source: Company reporting

Top ICE vehicle manufacturers 2016

1

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Extrapolating ambitious growth cases could give 35-40 million EVs by 2030

  • However, infrastructure, cost parity to combustion engines & availability of minerals for batteries could constrain growth…

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2015 2017 2020 2025 2030

Stated target Rystad Energy optimistic estimate

VW

Toyota GM

Renault-N Hyundai-Kia

Ford FCA Honda BMW Volvo Tesla BYD

Based on 2020- 2025 CAGR

Targeted/ estimated annual sales of BEVs and PHEVs from the top car manufacturers

Million vehicles

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SLIDE 7
  • 20

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060

Global car sales towards 2060

If constraints are handled and production targets met  global car sales could be revolutionized by a shift to EVs...

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis

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Fuel cars Electric cars and hydrogen cars Peak Fossil Vehicles 2026: 83 million

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SLIDE 8

Based on in-house RE fleet model, future fleet growth will happen primarily in India, China and the developing world. In order for EV disruption to occur, we should see significant electric vehicle sales growth in those same regions (China, India and developing countries). Electric vehicle risk in OECD countries remains quite probably on the country level, but insignificant on a global scale. Rapid electric vehicle penetration in OECD cannot alone cause peak demand in private light duty vehicle consumption

In order for EV disruption to occur – it needs to happen in India, China & developing world

Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis

Private light duty vehicle fleet forecast in selected countries Million vehicles

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 France Germany UK Netherlands Norway US Japan India China Other World

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SLIDE 9

On the other hand, global vehicle manufacturers start seeing EVs as a core technology

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  • Daimler mentions “electric” 238 times

in 321-page 2016 annual report

  • Diesel is mentioned 59 times
  • Gasoline 10 times
  • Combustion engine 20 times
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SLIDE 10

10

20 40 60 80 100 120 jul/ 15 jul/ 17 jul/ 19 jul/ 21 jul/ 23 jul/ 25 jul/ 27 jul/ 29 jul/ 31 jul/ 33 jul/ 35 jul/ 37 jul/ 39

Cars and buses Light and Heavy Trucks Aviation Maritime

This scenario gives peak oil demand in the early 2030’s

Potential oil demand development towards 2040 Million bbls/d excluding biofuel

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SLIDE 11

JUNE 2016

QUESTIONS?

your oil & gas knowledge house

Jon Fredrik Müller

Partner – Head of Consulting Asia-Pacific Jon.Fredrik.Muller@rystadenergy.com +65 8305 6684