Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan ∗ Masayuki Inui Nao Sudo Tomoaki Yamada 10 November, 2017@Gerzensee ∗ The views expressed are those of authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the BOJ/BIS. The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 1 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Table of contents Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 2 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Motivation: growing interest on inequality Impacts of monetary easing on inequality have attracted increasing attention recently • Cohan (2014): “Mr. Bernanke’s extraordinary QE program, started in the wake of the financial crisis, has only widened the gulf between haves and have-nots.” • Krugman (2014): “The belief that QE systematically favors the kinds of assets the wealthy own is wrong or at least overstated.” • Bernanke (2015): “Monetary policy is a blunt tool which certainly affects the distribution of income and wealth, although whether the net effect is to increase or reduce inequality is not clear.” The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 3 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Existing empirical studies Empirical observations are mixed • Coibion et al. (2017): Income and consumption inequality across U.S. households respond counter-cyclically to monetary policy shocks • Saiki and Frost (2014): The opposite is true when using Japanese data • Domanski et al. (2016): Unconventional monetary policy may have widened wealth inequality, in particular through an upsurge in stock prices • Mummtaz and Theophipoulou (2016): The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 4 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Questions raised Question 1: • Does a monetary policy affects inequalities? ⇒ YES Question 2: • What transmission mechanism works? The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 5 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion What we do This paper • Study the distributional effects of monetary policy, using the micro-level data on Japanese households. • Draw the broad picture of the effects: ◦ focusing on inequality measures of income, consumption, and wealth based on the micro-level data ◦ using both the theoretical model and the data ◦ using a fairly long-span data sample: periods of conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 6 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Potential transmission channels 1. Earnings heterogeneity channel: Japan ◦ the response of earnings to a monetary policy shock differs 2. Job creation channel ◦ job creation/destruction following a MP shock 3. Income composition channel: US ◦ the income composition of different income types differs 4. Portfolio channel ◦ the size and composite of asset portfolio differs 5. Saving redistribution channel: Doepke and Schneider (2006) ◦ a transfer from lenders to borrowers by a subsequent rise in inflation caused by monetary easing The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 7 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion I. Data & Estimation The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 8 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion FIES Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) • Monthly survey on household income and expenditures ◦ January 1981 – December 2008 ◦ The number of observations: 8,000 ◦ Panel data: 6 months ◦ Two-or-more household members only • Focus on full-time employees (household head): 25–59 ◦ Self-employed, retirees and unemployed are excluded • Construct quarterly series of variables on economic inequality The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 9 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion FIES (cont.) Definition of Variables 1. Earnings y L ◦ Sum of labor income of all household members 2. Total income y : y L + capital income + private transfer 3. Disposable income y D : y + public transfers - taxes/premiums 4. Nondurable expenditures c ND ◦ Housing, purchasing cars and other durables are excluded 5. Total expenditure c T : c ND + durables (housing excluded) • Equivalized by OECD equivalent scale DETAILS The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 10 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Time path of inequality measures Variance of log Gini coefficient P90-P10 ratio 0.35 0.30 4.50 0.30 0.28 4.00 0.25 0.26 3.50 0.20 0.24 3.00 0.15 0.22 0.10 0.20 2.50 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Recession yL y yD cT cND Recession yL y yD cT cND Recession yL y yD cT cND The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 11 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Estimation methodology Estimate the impulse responses of inequality measures to a monetary policy shock, using the LLP by Jord` a (2005): − Y t = α h + Π h ( L ) M t + Y t + h ε t + h ���� ���� inequality at t + h innovation ∆ TFP t M t = Factor t ∆ R t ⇐ Monetary policy variable • Advantages of LLP: ◦ Robustness to model misspecifications: ⇒ choice of explanatory variables and the number of lags ◦ Flexibility of model specifications The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 12 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Monetary policy instrument 12 10 8 6 Annualized, % 4 2 0 -2 -4 Ueno (2017) -6 Krippner (2015) JGB-2Y -8 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 • Baseline: 1981Q1-1998Q4, Shadow rate: after 1999Q1 The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 13 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Monetary policy instrument 12 10 8 6 Annualized, % 4 2 0 -2 -4 Ueno (2017) -6 Krippner (2015) JGB-2Y -8 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 • Baseline: 1981Q1-1998Q4, Shadow rate: after 1999Q1 The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 14 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Responses of inequality measures: Baseline Earnings Pre-tax income Disposable income Expenditure Consumption Variance of log 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 Gini 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 P90-P10 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 15 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion U.S. Economy • Figure 4 in Coibion et al. (2017) The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 16 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Channel through job creation (1) # of unemployed HH heads (2) The adjusted Gini of earnings 0.002 0 0.001 -5 0.000 -0.001 -10 -0.002 -15 -0.003 0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20 Quarter Quarter Adjusted Gini The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 17 / 45
Motivation Data & Estimation Model Results Conclusion Responses of inequality: 1981-2008 Earnings Pre-tax income Disposable income Expenditure Consumption Variance of log 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Gini 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 0.050 P90-P10 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 -0.050 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 0 10 20 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inequality in Japan M. Inui, N. Sudo and T. Yamada 18 / 45
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