The Dutch Ticket Tax, lessons for Germany ? Infraday Berlin 8-9 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Dutch Ticket Tax, lessons for Germany ? Infraday Berlin 8-9 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Dutch Ticket Tax, lessons for Germany ? Infraday Berlin 8-9 october 2010 Hugo Gordijn Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis History New Government, Christian-democrats/socialist, New ambitions, environment, sustainable

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SLIDE 1

The Dutch Ticket Tax, lessons for Germany ?

Infraday Berlin 8-9 october 2010 Hugo Gordijn Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis

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SLIDE 2

History

  • New Government, Christian-democrats/socialist,
  • New ambitions, environment, sustainable
  • Financed by yet untaxed Polluters: Aviation
  • Financial target fixed : 350 M-Euro
  • Details : to be fixed
  • Additional research showed : no tax on Freight,

Nor on Transfer, otherwise killing your hub.

  • Euro 11,25 European trips, ICA 45 Euro.
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SLIDE 3

History

  • Introduction 1 july 2008
  • Summer 2008 : Credit-crunch
  • Tourist industry : big losses, empty hotels
  • KLM : 1 million travellers gone
  • Weeze : Number of dutch travellers doubled
  • April : Recovery package : tax will be nullified
  • Abolished 1 july 2009
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SLIDE 4

Evaluation ex-ante

  • SEO/Significance made a series of calculations

Variant 1E-B (Euro 12,50 resp 47,50) after full implementation in 2011, mean effect of 4 WLO-scenario’s :

  • Schiphol

– passengers –8 % OD –10 % transfer –5 % – Business OD – 6 % transfer –4 % – Non business OD –13 % transfer –5 % – movements –8 % – Regional airports –12 %

  • What did lost passenger do ?

– More Train/Car : 10% – No journey : 40% – Other Airports : 50%

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SLIDE 5

Data

Traffic Development Amsterdam Airport

  • 0,4
  • 0,3
  • 0,2
  • 0,1

0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 j an-07 j ul-07 j an-08 j ul-08 j an-09 j ul-09 j an-10 j ul-10 Year on year grow th rate O&D Transfer Cargo Source Schiphol <- Ticket t ax- >

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SLIDE 6

Regional airports

Flights from W eeze ( NRN) and Eindhoven

50 100 150 200 250 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 Num ber of Flights per w eek EIN NRN Source : OAG < - Ticket tax ->

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SLIDE 7

Credit crisis effect on aviation

Fig 3 I ATA airtraffic development year- on- year grow th 2007- 2010 Europe and W orld; Passengers & Freight

  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10

EurPass WPass EurFr WFreight <- Ticket t ax- >

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SLIDE 8

Airport Choice

Fig 4 Decisive factors for airport choice Source: KiM Airport Choice Survey 2010

Other 14% Flight- scheme and time- schedule 37% Ticket-Price 24% Distance/ travel costs 25%

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SLIDE 9

Consumer behavior

Source : Steverink, 2010

9

The cognitive Decision Sequence: Information Requirements:

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SLIDE 10

(Im)perfect information:Awareness

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SLIDE 11

Effect Ticket Tax

Fig 6 Did the tax influence your choice? Total YES : 14%

No I have not chosen differently 32% No, I did not know there was a Ticket Tax 21% No, I did not fly 33% Yes, otherwise 2% Yes I took an

  • ther airport

7% Yes, I did not Fly 3% Yes I used another modality 2%

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SLIDE 12

Alternative choice

Other Airport Chosen

Weeze 22% Other and Combinations 18% CRL 6% FMO 4% Brussels 14% Düsseldorf 36%

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Accessibility of Dutch airports for German citizens

  • 2 – 2,5 million Germans live

closer to NL-airport

  • Embden to Bentheim, but

GRQ and ENS very small / no operations

  • EIN to far for 8 Euro, but NL-

citizens will come back

  • MAA (30 km from Aachen)

serious chances

  • AMS – DUS: ICA passengers

will partly shift back

  • See Grimme / Veldhuis
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SLIDE 14

Other countries

  • UK 1994: Air Passenger

Duty (now 1-55 Pound)

  • France 2006: Solidarity

tax (1 – 40 Euro)

  • Malta tax (12 / 23 Euro)

abolished in 2008

  • Denmark repealed 2007
  • Sweden 2006: shelved
  • Belgium 2008: shelved
  • Ireland 2009 : (2 – 10

Euro) Ryanair withdrew planes

  • Germany 2010 (8- 45

Euro) decided ?

  • EU (2012) ETS,

international opposition

  • ICAO in discussion
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Effects of Ticket Tax : Preliminary Conclusions

  • A unilateral tax has effects on airport choice and

propensity to fly. In the dutch case both about 7%.

  • The effects are strongly related to the location of

alternative airports.

  • Awareness of the tax and of alternative airports is an

important aspect explaining the speed of adaptation.

  • The effects of Introduction and Abolishment of the

tax are not symmetrical due to structural effects on awareness, experience and habit-formation.

  • Reactions of airlines (new routes or lost destinations)

can have a structural effect.

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Overall Conclusion

  • Strong permanent pressure to subject aviation to the

‘normal’ taxes : excise duty on fuel and VAT.

  • Do not do this on your own unless you are an Island

and not dependent on incoming tourism.

  • Is there a case for EU-wide Ticket Tax in anticipation

(or as a substitute) of the inclusion of air traffic in the Emission Trading Scheme ?

  • It would be a sensible solution !