The Development of Climate Change Impact Assessment Toolkit for Urban - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Development of Climate Change Impact Assessment Toolkit for Urban - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 21, 2022 169 likes •442 views

The Development of Climate Change Impact Assessment Toolkit for Urban Policy Makers Wei Ye School of Science and Engineering University of Waikato, New Zealand Objectives An integrated impact assessment tool for urban policy makers to OBJECTIVES

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The Development of Climate Change Impact Assessment Toolkit for Urban Policy Makers

Wei Ye School of Science and Engineering University of Waikato, New Zealand

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An integrated impact assessment tool for urban policy makers to

Objectives

GUIDE DECISION BY

  • Combining analysis of

climate and local impacts

  • Developing “what if”

scenarios to consider climate and disaster risk in macro decisions

  • Proposing and evaluating

costs and benefits of interventions by sector and across sectors OBJECTIVES & GOALS

  • Institution and capacity

development

  • Science‐based policy making
  • Regional cooperation
  • Analysis of potential future

mega projects

  • Effective linking with disaster

risk reduction

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What is proposed

  • Simple
  • Flexible & utility
  • riented
  • Easy to understand for

urban policy makers

  • Suited to evaluating the

costs and benefits for abatement, adaptation, and risk reduction

AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT TOOL WHICH IS A SYSTEMS APPROACH THAT

  • Connects the various

components of the urban system (economic, environmental, etc.)

  • Captures interactions

between components to improve environmental and human health, water security, and infrastructure

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SimCLIM structure

Biophysical Impacts on: Agriculture, Coastal, Human Health, Water Global Climate Projection Local Climate average, variability, extremes (present and future) Greenhouse gas emission scenarios USER Climate and GCM pattern import toolbox Data “Plug-in” Models Impact Model Scenario selections

  • Synthetic changes
  • GCM patterns
  • Land data
  • Other spatial data

MAGICC IPCC CMIP (GCMs)

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Community at risk

Niart Village, Talufu Island

Risk‐based approach to adaptation – mainstreaming SimCLIM demonstration

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Coastal flooding impact model: Time‐slice spatial analyses

2050

Study area

Current climate

Study area

50-YEAR EVENT Risk‐based approach to adaptation – mainstreaming SimCLIM result

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Economic tools

SIMULATE IMPACTS …

  • Over study area
  • Over distribution of flood events
  • With and without climate change
  • With and without adaptation
  • In time steps (“transient” mode)

as climate changes as land use changes

  • Aggregate and discount to present value

Risk‐based approach to adaptation – mainstreaming SimCLIM model

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Scenarios of development and land use

Fractional change (per year) of land use type Model rules and settings

Risk‐based approach to adaptation – mainstreaming SimCLIM result

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Adaptation analysis

Simulated individually or in combination Risk‐based approach to adaptation – mainstreaming SimCLIM result

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Classify and survey structures by: type (e.g. residential) age (e.g. <10 yrs) construction (e.g. woodframe)

Flood height-% damage function Indicativ e $ value x = $ Damage

Single family, new, woodframe

$20k x

4 100 Water height (m) % damage 50 2 1 3

= $10k Damage For example…

Economic tools

  • Dollar damages
  • Basic Benefit-Cost

Analysis Risk‐based approach to adaptation – mainstreaming SimCLIM model

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Economic tools

With climate change Without climate change With adaptation

Risk‐based approach to adaptation – mainstreaming SimCLIM result

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DAMAGES

Economic tools

ADAPTATION BENEFITS & COSTS Risk‐based approach to adaptation – mainstreaming SimCLIM result

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Sector Themes, Tools & Methods

Data & Information Systems Thinking

Hydrology Hydraulics Economics Insurance Social

Geophysical  DEM  hydrological network  Soils  geomorphology Climate  Observations  GCM, RCM  Projections  Temperature  Precipitation  Sea level, storms. Social & Economic  Demographic – census, projections, Housing- quality materials, condition, etc  Welfare & human development -income, distribution, poverty, education, human development, Production and investment, Metric area of housing, infrastructure, land value Geospatial  Ecology/Habitat Surveys  Road network: Condition, surface category  Water: system, type

  • f material

 Energy: Services, system, location maintenance,  Health: capacity, human resources. Policy  IPCC Guidelines  Local & National Planning Laws  National Comms.

Transport Health Meteorology Carbon Energy

Training  Technical  Adaptation Planning  Systems Approach  Decision Making Relationships  IFI’s  City Govt.  Provincial Govt.  National Govt.  NGO’s  Institutes Communication  Community of Practice  Knowledge Sharing  Media Strategy

GIS Investment

Complex System

Systems Approach  Bringing it together  Feedback Mechanisms  Project Planning and reporting

Cross-Sector Linkage Tools Optimization/DSS Ecology

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  • Build on existing concepts
  • Conceptual structure before mathematical

detail

  • Easy with computer
  • Intuitive graphical user interface
  • Support modular modeling
  • High‐efficient simulation

System Approach

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System Dynamics Concept

  • System dynamics is an approach to understanding the

behavior of complex systems over time. It deals with internal feedback loops and time delays that affect the behavior of the entire system. (MIT, System Dynamics in Education Project)

  • What makes using system dynamics different from
  • ther approaches to studying complex systems is the

use of feedback loops and stocks and flows. These elements help describe how even seemingly simple systems display baffling nonlinearity.

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Stock Flow Feedback Model Cloud Cloud Influence

System Dynamics Concept

Central concept of system dynamic s

Flow

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Urban Infrastructure Inventories Development Withdrawal

System Dynamics Concept

System dynamic s concept for urban planning

Feedback

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Infrastructure Development

Demand

Climate change impact Economic

System Dynamics Concept

System dynamic s concept for urban planning

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Climate change impact

Infrastructure Withdrawal

Cost/Benefit Analysis

System Dynamics Concept

System dynamic s concept for urban planning Adaptation Economic

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Urban Infrastructure Inventories

Development Withdrawal Infrastructure Development

Climate change impact Economic Demand

Infrastructure Withdrawal

Adaptation

System Dynamics Concept

System dynamic s concept for urban planning

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System Dynamics Concept

GOAL Urban development plan & climate change strategy CRITERIA Options Project Cost Financing Environ. impact Social impact Economic benefit Dyke system Beach nourishing Climate proof building

Multi criteria decision making support

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Damage projection ‐ road

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

without cc without ap with cc without ap without cc with ap with cc with ap Total potentialdamage (million $) Year

Damage projection ‐building Discount rate: 3% cc = climate change and ap = adaptation Cost benefit timeline Cost benefit ranking 1= with climate change without adaptation 2= without climate change with adaptation 3 = without climate change without adaptation 4 = with climate change with adaptation Economic Analysis Damage Projection Cost‐ benefit of projects Cost‐benefit ranking Cost‐benefit timeline Add new project