The Changing Cold Regions Network: Sub-theme B3 Diagnosis of Local - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Changing Cold Regions Network: Sub-theme B3 Diagnosis of Local - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Changing Cold Regions Network: Sub-theme B3 Diagnosis of Local Past Changes www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca | Detection and diagnosis of change Attribution of the causes of Earth system change, and understanding the interaction

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The Changing Cold Regions Network:

Sub-theme B3 Diagnosis of Local Past Changes

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Detection and diagnosis of change

  • Attribution of the causes of Earth system change, and

understanding the interaction and feedbacks associated with such changes, requires integration of data analysis, assimilation and modelling.

  • E.g. changes in streamflow may reflect changes in

climate, ecology, hydrology, land or water management, or measurement practices, often in combination, in what are complex, spatially heterogeneous systems.

  • Modelling can play a key role, but uncertainty must be

recognised

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  • Enhanced process models developed in this theme will

be utilized to understand the interactions and feedbacks between various components of the Earth system over the past 20 years.

  • Models provide a tool that can be used to detect

change and to diagnose change. However models suffer from uncertainty in parameterisations and input data.

  • Advanced methods of model analysis will be used to

test for parameter and process non-stationarity within a statistical framework of uncertainty analysis

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Milestones:

  • B3.1 Methodology and modelling toolkit

development complete (Y2),

  • B3.2 Application of existing models to diagnose

change complete (Y3);

  • B3.3 Application of improved models to diagnose

change complete (Y4).

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B3.1 Methodology and modelling toolkit development

  • Wheater - 1 PDRF Jose-Luis Guerrero from Oct 21 2013
  • The objective is to provide strategic advice on

methodologies and to develop modelling tools: a) for the representation of uncertainty in cold region hydrological and hydro-ecological process models to support model development, including identifiability and uncertainty analysis, and b) for application to the diagnosis of change.

  • This will include interaction with international

collaborators, including Hoshin Gupta (University of Arizona), Thorsten Wagener (University of Bristol) and Neil McIntyre (University of Queensland). An international workshop will be convened in 2014/15 to engage this broader team.

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Study area

Location of the South Tobacco Creek (STC) Watershed

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CRHM Model

  • Modules used for representing cold region processes:

– Prairie Blow ing Snow Module ( PBSM) : Blowing snow transport and sublimation. – Energy Balance Snow Module ( EBSM) : Energy-budget snowmelt model applicable to the Canadian Prairies. . – Evap_ resist m acro: Evapotranspiration estimated using Penman-Monteith method. – Prairie-infiltration m odule: Unfrozen infiltration (Ayers method) and frozen soil infiltration (i.e. Restricted, Limited and Unlimited infiltration). – Netroute: Muskingum routing to transport water from HRU to basin outlet. – Canopy-clearing m odule: Interception of snow and rainfall.

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Results (Snow simulations)

Snow simulations at the Twin Watershed

Simulated snow depths are in good agreement with observed snow depths. Low Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) led to hydrological drought during 2002-03

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Results (Outflow simulations)

Comparing cumulative modeled outflow with observations at the Steppler reservoirs Comparing cumulative modeled outflow with observations at the hwy240 station Comparing cumulative modeled outflow with observations at the Miami station

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Preliminary results

  • Manning coefficient: Uniform across the basin.
  • Stubble height: Varies spatially in agricultural field (19 hrus)

based tillage practices of prior year.

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Preliminary results

Parameter uncertainties in outflow by varying only two parameters.

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e.g. Impacts of peatland drainage

  • What are the effects of peatland management (drainage

and drain blocking)

  • Physics-based model with estimated range of

parameter uncertainty Conceptualisation of drained peatland hillslope

Ballard, C.E., McIntyre, N. and Wheater, H.S. 2012. Effects of peatland drainage management

  • n peak flows. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 16(7): 2299-2310
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Difference in EVENT Peak flows – Drained minus Blocked

Distribution of the mean % difference in peak flows (Drained minus Blocked)

Difference in EVENT Peak flows – Drained minus Intact

Distribution of the mean % difference in peak flows (Drained minus intact) Largest Events Smallest Events Peak flows

INCREASE

following drainage Peak flows

DECREASE

following drainage Peak flows

DECREASE

following blocking Peak flows

INCREASE

following blocking

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B3.2 Application of existing models to diagnose change

  • Black: B3.1–3 Identification of case study events (e.g drought) within the flux/climate record of the

BERMS flux tower sites and recommendation to modelers that they be used in evaluating existing and improved model performance (2014-2015).

  • Hayashi: B3.2 Application of CRHM with new groundwater parameterization to diagnose changes in the

baseflow regime of mountain rivers (2015);

  • Johnstone: B3.2 Application of coupled hydro-ecological model to represent coupled system behaviour

in southern boreal forest: exploring scenarios of change in climate and disturbance (2015-2016).

  • Marsh: B3.2–3 Application of GEOtop and CHRM to diagnose hydrologic change; Enhanced models will

be used to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between climate and hydrology at Trail Valley and Havikpak Creeks (2017).

  • Pomeroy: B3.2–3 Use CRHM to diagnose basin scale change (2016); Use basin models created with

CRHM to conduct step-wise sensitivity analyses at small to medium basin scales on a) impact of warming and changing precipitation, b) transient impact of glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, surface/subsurface storage change, forest cover change, shrub cover change on basin responses to a) (2013-2018).

  • Quinton: B3.2–3 Use revised CRHM to diagnose local and basin scale change at Scotty Creek Research

Basin (14 years), Havikpak (23 years) and Trail Valley (23 years); diagnostic modelling of runoff pathways and runoff generation in Arctic tundra (2017).

  • Stewart and Thériault: B3.2 Special winter precipitation and associated atmospheric measurements,

new model development, applications to larger scale models

  • Wheater: B3.2–3 This project will provide tools and case study applications to support this deliverable

(see B3.1 activities description) (2015).

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Sensitivity of Alpine Processes to Changing T and P – Marmot Creek

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Sensitivity of Alpine Runoff to T and P Change – Marmot Creek

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B3.3 Application of improved models to diagnose change

  • Black: B3.1–3 Identification of case study events (e.g drought) within the flux/climate record of the

BERMS flux tower sites and recommendation to modelers that they be used in evaluating existing and improved model performance (2014-2015).

  • Hayashi: B3.3 Coupling of new groundwater recharge model with three-dimensional groundwater flow

model to diagnose changes in aquifer storage and stream baseflow. Using permafrost-groundwater model to assess the effects of climate warming on water resources in sub-arctic lowlands (2016).

  • Marsh: B3.2–3 Application of GEOtop and CHRM to diagnose hydrologic change; Enhanced models will

be used to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between climate and hydrology at Trail Valley and Havikpak Creeks (2017).

  • Pomeroy: B3.2–3 Use CRHM to diagnose basin scale change (2016); Use basin models created with

CRHM to conduct step-wise sensitivity analyses at small to medium basin scales on a) impact of warming and changing precipitation, b) transient impact of glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, surface/subsurface storage change, forest cover change, shrub cover change on basin responses to a) (2013-2018).

  • Quinton: B3.2–3 Use revised CRHM to diagnose local and basin scale change at Scotty Creek Research

Basin (14 years), Havikpak (23 years) and Trail Valley (23 years); diagnostic modelling of runoff pathways and runoff generation in Arctic tundra (2017).

  • Stewart and Thériault: B3.3 Improved numerical modelling capabilities of precipitation near 0°C; a

special focus will be on the boundaries of separation between extremes of dryness and wetness (2013- 2017).

  • Wheater: B3.2–3 This project will provide tools and case study applications to support this deliverable

(see B3.1 activities description) (2016).