The Changing Cold Regions Network: Sub-theme B3 Diagnosis of Local Past Changes www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
Detection and diagnosis of change • Attribution of the causes of Earth system change, and understanding the interaction and feedbacks associated with such changes, requires integration of data analysis, assimilation and modelling. • E.g. changes in streamflow may reflect changes in climate, ecology, hydrology, land or water management, or measurement practices, often in combination, in what are complex, spatially heterogeneous systems. • Modelling can play a key role, but uncertainty must be recognised www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
• Enhanced process models developed in this theme will be utilized to understand the interactions and feedbacks between various components of the Earth system over the past 20 years. • Models provide a tool that can be used to detect change and to diagnose change. However models suffer from uncertainty in parameterisations and input data. • Advanced methods of model analysis will be used to test for parameter and process non-stationarity within a statistical framework of uncertainty analysis www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
Milestones : • B3.1 Methodology and modelling toolkit development complete (Y2), B3.2 Application of existing models to diagnose • change complete (Y3); • B3.3 Application of improved models to diagnose change complete (Y4). www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
B3.1 Methodology and modelling toolkit development • Wheater - 1 PDRF Jose-Luis Guerrero from Oct 21 2013 • The objective is to provide strategic advice on methodologies and to develop modelling tools: a) for the representation of uncertainty in cold region hydrological and hydro-ecological process models to support model development, including identifiability and uncertainty analysis, and b) for application to the diagnosis of change. • This will include interaction with international collaborators, including Hoshin Gupta (University of Arizona), Thorsten Wagener (University of Bristol) and Neil McIntyre (University of Queensland). An international workshop will be convened in 2014/15 to engage this broader team. www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
Study area Location of the South Tobacco Creek (STC) Watershed
CRHM Model • Modules used for representing cold region processes: – Prairie Blow ing Snow Module ( PBSM) : Blowing snow transport and sublimation. – Energy Balance Snow Module ( EBSM) : Energy-budget snowmelt model applicable to the Canadian Prairies. . – Evap_ resist m acro: Evapotranspiration estimated using Penman-Monteith method. – Prairie-infiltration m odule: Unfrozen infiltration (Ayers method) and frozen soil infiltration (i.e. Restricted, Limited and Unlimited infiltration). – Netroute: Muskingum routing to transport water from HRU to basin outlet. – Canopy-clearing m odule: Interception of snow and rainfall.
Results (Snow simulations) Snow simulations at the Twin Watershed Simulated snow depths are in good agreement with observed snow depths. Low Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) led to hydrological drought during 2002-03
Results (Outflow simulations) Comparing cumulative modeled outflow with observations Comparing cumulative modeled outflow with observations Comparing cumulative modeled outflow with observations at the Steppler reservoirs at the hwy240 station at the Miami station
Preliminary results • Manning coefficient: Uniform across the basin. • Stubble height: Varies spatially in agricultural field (19 hrus) based tillage practices of prior year.
Preliminary results Parameter uncertainties in outflow by varying only two parameters.
e.g. Impacts of peatland drainage What are the effects of peatland management (drainage and drain blocking) Physics-based model with estimated range of parameter uncertainty Conceptualisation of drained peatland hillslope Ballard, C.E., McIntyre, N. and Wheater, H.S. 2012. Effects of peatland drainage management on peak flows. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 16 (7): 2299-2310
Distribution of the mean % difference Difference in EVENT Peak flows – Drained minus Intact Peak flows in peak flows (Drained minus intact) INCREASE following drainage Peak flows DECREASE following drainage Largest Smallest Events Events in peak flows (Drained minus Blocked) Difference in EVENT Peak flows – Drained minus Blocked Distribution of the mean % difference Peak flows DECREASE following blocking Peak flows INCREASE following blocking
B3.2 Application of existing models to diagnose change • Black: B3.1–3 Identification of case study events (e.g drought) within the flux/climate record of the BERMS flux tower sites and recommendation to modelers that they be used in evaluating existing and improved model performance (2014-2015). • Hayashi: B3.2 Application of CRHM with new groundwater parameterization to diagnose changes in the baseflow regime of mountain rivers (2015); • Johnstone: B3.2 Application of coupled hydro-ecological model to represent coupled system behaviour in southern boreal forest: exploring scenarios of change in climate and disturbance (2015-2016). • Marsh: B3.2–3 Application of GEOtop and CHRM to diagnose hydrologic change; Enhanced models will be used to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between climate and hydrology at Trail Valley and Havikpak Creeks (2017). • Pomeroy: B3.2–3 Use CRHM to diagnose basin scale change (2016); Use basin models created with CRHM to conduct step-wise sensitivity analyses at small to medium basin scales on a) impact of warming and changing precipitation, b) transient impact of glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, surface/subsurface storage change, forest cover change, shrub cover change on basin responses to a) (2013-2018). • Quinton: B3.2–3 Use revised CRHM to diagnose local and basin scale change at Scotty Creek Research Basin (14 years), Havikpak (23 years) and Trail Valley (23 years); diagnostic modelling of runoff pathways and runoff generation in Arctic tundra (2017). • Stewart and Thériault: B3.2 Special winter precipitation and associated atmospheric measurements, new model development, applications to larger scale models • Wheater: B3.2–3 This project will provide tools and case study applications to support this deliverable (see B3.1 activities description) (2015). www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
Sensitivity of Alpine Processes to Changing T and P – Marmot Creek www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
Sensitivity of Alpine Runoff to T and P Change – Marmot Creek www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
B3.3 Application of improved models to diagnose change • Black: B3.1–3 Identification of case study events (e.g drought) within the flux/climate record of the BERMS flux tower sites and recommendation to modelers that they be used in evaluating existing and improved model performance (2014-2015). • Hayashi: B3.3 Coupling of new groundwater recharge model with three-dimensional groundwater flow model to diagnose changes in aquifer storage and stream baseflow. Using permafrost-groundwater model to assess the effects of climate warming on water resources in sub-arctic lowlands (2016). • Marsh: B3.2–3 Application of GEOtop and CHRM to diagnose hydrologic change; Enhanced models will be used to better understand the interactions and feedbacks between climate and hydrology at Trail Valley and Havikpak Creeks (2017). Pomeroy: B3.2–3 Use CRHM to diagnose basin scale change (2016); Use basin models created with • CRHM to conduct step-wise sensitivity analyses at small to medium basin scales on a) impact of warming and changing precipitation, b) transient impact of glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, surface/subsurface storage change, forest cover change, shrub cover change on basin responses to a) (2013-2018). Quinton: B3.2–3 Use revised CRHM to diagnose local and basin scale change at Scotty Creek Research • Basin (14 years), Havikpak (23 years) and Trail Valley (23 years); diagnostic modelling of runoff pathways and runoff generation in Arctic tundra (2017). • Stewart and Thériault: B3.3 Improved numerical modelling capabilities of precipitation near 0°C; a special focus will be on the boundaries of separation between extremes of dryness and wetness (2013- 2017). • Wheater: B3.2–3 This project will provide tools and case study applications to support this deliverable (see B3.1 activities description) (2016). www.usask.ca/water www.ccrnetwork.ca |
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