The Burning Question Global CO 2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Burning Question Global CO 2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Burning Question Global CO 2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 What would it take to 8,000 leave fuel worth trillions in the ground and is 6,000 humanity up to it? 4,000 2,000 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 About me

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2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2000 1950 1900 1850

Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon)

The Burning Question

What would it take to leave fuel worth trillions in the ground – and is humanity up to it?

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SLIDE 2

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

About me

  • Author

Journalist (Guardian/Kiln) UCL

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SLIDE 3

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

The book – and the talk

  • 1 – Where are we at with

climate change?

  • 2 – What solutions do and

don’t work?

  • 3 – What are the barriers

to action?

  • 4 – What should we do?
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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

How are we doing solving climate change?

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SLIDE 7

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Exponential curve

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Total CO2 emissions since 1850

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2000 1950 1900 1850

Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon)

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SLIDE 9

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Total CO2 emissions since 1850

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2000 1950 1900 1850

Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon)

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SLIDE 10

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Total CO2 emissions since 2000

8,000 10,000 12,000 2010 2005 2000

Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon)

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SLIDE 11

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

What if we stay on that curve?

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

4

degrees Celsius

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

= temperature increase since the 
 Last Glacial Maximum

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

So instead we’re aiming for

2

degrees Celsius

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SLIDE 15

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Risks to Many Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Risks to Some Risk of Extreme Weather Events Large Increase Distribution

  • f Impacts

Negative for Most Regions Negative for Some Regions; Positive for Others Net Negative in All Metrics Aggregate Impacts Positive or Negative Market Impacts; Majority

  • f People

Adversely Affected Risks of Large Scale Discontinuities High Low Updated Reasons For Concern 5 4 3 2 1

  • 0.6

Future Past Increase in Global Mean Temperature above circa 1990 (°C) Risks to Many Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Risks to Some Risk of Extreme Weather Events Large Increase Increase Distribution

  • f Impacts

Negative for Most Regions Negative for Some Regions; Positive for Others Net Negative in All Metrics Aggregate Impacts Positive or Negative Market Impacts; Majority

  • f People

Adversely Affected Risks of Large Scale Discontinuities Higher Very Low TAR (2001) Reasons For Concern 5 4 3 2 1

  • 0.6

Increase

…which is better but not “safe”

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SLIDE 16

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

The remaining budget

Double coin-fmip scenario (75% chance of success) Coin-fmip scenario (50% chance of success)

Emissions so far Future emissions

2000

billion tonnes of CO2

1600

billion tonnes of CO2

700

billion tonnes

  • f CO2
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SLIDE 17

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Total CO2 emissions since 1850

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SLIDE 18

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

The remaining budget

10000 2100 Today 1850 40 Billion tonnes of CO2

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SLIDE 19

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

The remaining budget

10000 2100 Today 1850 45 Billion tonnes of CO2

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SLIDE 20

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Might we run out of fuel?

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Coal Gas Oil Remaining carbon budgets Proven reserves

Oil 630 Gas 430 Coal 2000 Coin-fmip 1600 Double coin-fmip 700

Billion tonnes of CO2

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SLIDE 21

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Might we run out of fuel?

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Billion tonnes of CO2

Oil Gas Oil

Gas

Coal (Coal) Fuel resources Coin-fmip budget Double coin-fmip Oil & gas resources Coin-fmip budget Double coin-fmip

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SLIDE 22

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Are the global talks on track?

20 40 60 80 2050 2040 2030 2020 2010 2000 1990 Current pledges Needed for 2ºC Business as usual

Global greenhouse gas emissions (gigatonnes CO2e)

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SLIDE 23

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

What solutions do and don’t work?

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

What drives the curve?

1 2 3 4 5 6 CO2 CO2 /Energy Energy / GDP GDP/Person Population 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950

I n d e x e d

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SLIDE 25

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Population

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Population

2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Annual % increase

A n n u a l % c h a n g e G l

  • b

a l p

  • p

u l a t i

  • n

( m i l l i

  • n

s )

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Affluence (economic growth)

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Affmuence

  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6

Annual change

2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950

A n n u a l % c h a n g e A v e r a g e a ffm u e n c e (GDP / h e a d )

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SLIDE 27

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Energy intensity (efficiency)

100 200 300 400 500

Energy intensity

2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950

  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3

Annual change

Annual % change Energy intensity (Tonnes oil equivalent /GDP)

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SLIDE 28

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Rebounds and ripples

Get a more effjcient car Bigger economy, more investment in effjciency Drive more Use less fuel More demand for roads; suburbia more viable; bigger houses, etc. Spend it on

  • ther things

Invested via bank or fund Save money Lower global

  • il price

Carbon footprint Economic activity and/or and More oil use elsewhere Rebound type 1 Rebound type 2 Rebound type 4 Rebound type 3

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SLIDE 29

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Carbon intensity (clean energy)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Carbon intensity

2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1950

  • 6
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Annual change

1960

Annual % change Carbon intensity (tonnes carbon / tonne oil equivalent)

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

New energy capacity 2000–2011

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Renewables Fossil fuels Oil Natural gas Coal Million tonnes

  • f oil equivalent
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SLIDE 31

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

An age-old feedback

1850 1900 1950 20002008 1875 1925 1975 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Microchip Nuclear energy Television Commercial aviation Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric motor Steam engine Internet

WWW

Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Solar & wind

Global energy use in exajoules

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Text

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Text

x

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Who’s responsible for fossil fuel use?

End consumers? Industry? Fossil fuel sector?

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SLIDE 35

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Who’s responsible for fossil fuel use?

We can’t minimise the consumption of fossil fuel while also maximising supply!

Infrastructure Lifestyles Fuel industry

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SLIDE 36

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

  • US carbon emission are falling. But its

carbon extraction is still rising

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2010 1950

Gas Coal Oil

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SLIDE 37

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

What are the barriers to action?

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SLIDE 38

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

  • 1. Value of reserves and infrastructure
  • 2. Prioritization of economic growth 


above ecological health

  • 3. Psychological and social barriers
  • 4. How to sharing the remaining pie?
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SLIDE 39

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Value of reserves and infrastructure

$10–100 trillion

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All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Value of reserves and infrastructure

$764 billion each year on developing NEW reserves!

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SLIDE 41

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Value of reserves and infrastructure

Potential CO2 in proven reserves (billion tonnes)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Coal Gas Oil Rest of world EU, Africa, AoSIS & Cartagena EU, Africa & AoSIS

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SLIDE 42

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Economic growth – can it be done?

20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 50% chance of 2°C Effjciency, 44% Renewables, 21% Biofuels, 4% Nuclear, 9%

CCS, 22%

Existing and planned policies CO2 emissions (gigatonnes)

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SLIDE 43

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

David Cameron’s effort 
 to introduce alternative metrics

  • “Every department a growth department”
  • Calls on OPEC to increase oil output – for growth
  • New place for Heathrow – for growth
  • Commissions report on increasing oil and gas

extraction – for growth

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SLIDE 44

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Social and psychological barriers to action

  • Optimism bias
  • Now bias
  • Confirmation bias
  • Social inertia bias
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SLIDE 45

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

Sharing the pie

Lots of options…

  • National pledges
  • Global cap and trade
  • Global carbon tax
  • SAFE Carbon
  • … but none is a silver bullet for

burden sharing. We need to find ways to encourage others to participate – such as trade.

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SLIDE 46

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

What should we do?

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SLIDE 47

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

What should we do?

  • Waking up!
  • Capping the carbon
  • Pushing the right technologies – hard
  • Sorting out food, land and smoke
  • Prepare a plan B
  • Leadership …
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SLIDE 48

All charts and facts from The Burning Question by 
 Duncan Clark and Mike Berners-Lee (Profile Books,2013)

  • Is a tipping point coming?
  • 1.1% increase in reported fossil 


fuel carbon emissions in 2012