the Answers are Simple. Dr. Seuss 7 1: A LL M APS A RE W RONG 8 1: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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the Answers are Simple. Dr. Seuss 7 1: A LL M APS A RE W RONG 8 1: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 27, 2023 211 likes •514 views

T EN S TEPS TO S UCCESSFUL E XPLORATION AND D EVELOPMENT THE FUTURE OF ENERGY EXPLORATION: Essential Tools for the Next Generation Jeffrey B. Aldrich 730 17 th St, Suite 410 Denver, CO 80202 Sept. 2020 01 303 277 0270 office www.sproule.com

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1 730 17th St, Suite 410 Denver, CO 80202 01 303 277 0270 office www.sproule.com

TEN STEPS TO SUCCESSFUL EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT

THE FUTURE OF ENERGY EXPLORATION: Essential Tools for the Next Generation Jeffrey B. Aldrich

  • Sept. 2020
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A STORY OF 3 GENERATIONS IN THE OIL PATCH

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

  • $/Bbl (2020 $)
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A STORY OF 3 GENERATIONS IN THE OIL PATCH

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

  • Post WWII Generation
  • Flat Price: Big E: 2D
  • Pluses: Found 80% of worlds oil
  • Without any digital computers
  • Foundational Science
  • Negatives: Silo Management,
  • Gender And Ethnic Biases
  • Key Mentors:
  • John Amaruso
  • Arnold Bouma
  • Evertte DeGolyer
  • Marlan Downey
  • Maurice Ewing
  • Michel T. Halbouty
  • Rufus LeBlanc
  • George Mitchell
  • Bob Sneider
  • Max Steinke
  • James Lee Wilson
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A STORY OF 3 GENERATIONS IN THE OIL PATCH

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

  • My Generation
  • Uncertain Price: Little e: 3D
  • Pluses: Multidiscipline Teams,

Digital Computing, 3D/4D Seismic, Deepwater Exploration, Unconventionals

  • Negatives: Pulled back from

Big E exploration, Focus on Wall Street $$, Short Term Memory

  • Key Mentors:
  • Denise Cox
  • Vlasta Dvořáková

Michael C. Forrest

  • Robbie Gries
  • John Kaldi
  • Pete Rose
  • Scott Tinker

Dan Tearpock

  • Peter Vail
  • Post WWII Generation
  • Flat Price: Big E: 2D
  • Pluses: Found 80% of worlds oil
  • Without any digital computers
  • Foundational Science
  • Negatives: Silo Management,
  • Gender And Ethnic Biases
  • Key Mentors:
  • John Amaruso
  • Arnold Bouma
  • Evertte DeGolyer
  • Marlan Downey
  • Maurice Ewing
  • Michel T. Halbouty
  • Rufus LeBlanc
  • George Mitchell
  • Bob Sneider
  • Max Steinke
  • James Lee Wilson
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A STORY OF 3 GENERATIONS IN THE OIL PATCH

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

  • My Generation
  • Uncertain Price: Little e: 3D
  • Pluses: Multidiscipline Teams,

Digital Computing, 3D/4D Seismic, Deepwater Exploration, Unconventionals

  • Negatives: Pulled back from

Big E exploration, Focus on Wall Street $$, Short Term Memory

  • Key Mentors:
  • Denise Cox
  • Vlasta Dvořáková

Michael C. Forrest

  • Robbie Gries
  • John Kaldi
  • Pete Rose
  • Scott Tinker

Dan Tearpock

  • Peter Vail
  • Post WWII Generation
  • Flat Price: Big E: 2D
  • Pluses: Found 80% of worlds oil
  • Without any digital computers
  • Foundational Science
  • Negatives: Silo Management,
  • Gender And Ethnic Biases
  • Key Mentors:
  • John Amaruso
  • Arnold Bouma
  • Evertte DeGolyer
  • Marlan Downey
  • Maurice Ewing
  • Michel T. Halbouty
  • Rufus LeBlanc
  • George Mitchell
  • Bob Sneider
  • Max Steinke
  • James Lee Wilson
  • Your Generation
  • Volatile Price: New E:

Techno

  • Pluses: Virtual Teams,

A.I., Big Data, DNA Reservoir Testing, ????

  • Negatives:

Global Political Pressure against Carbon Fuels,

  • Key Mentors:
  • ???
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10 RULES THAT ARE NEVER TAUGHT IN SCHOOL

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Sometimes the Questions are Complicated and the Answers are Simple.

  • Dr. Seuss
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1: ALL MAPS ARE WRONG

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1: ALL MAPS ARE WRONG

a. b.. c. d. EI 330 in Gulf of Mexico Original limited 2D Development 2D 3D Seismic 4D Seismic

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  • “All Models are Wrong – some are Useful” – George Box

1976

  • Drill On The Least Incorrect Map
  • Don’t Fall in Love With Your Own Map

1: ALL MAPS ARE WRONG

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2: DRILL TO MAKE MONEY – LET OTHERS DRILL FOR SCIENCE

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2: DRILL TO MAKE MONEY – LET OTHERS DRILL FOR SCIENCE

  • All data acquired for a dry hole is infinitely

expensive.

  • Any data acquired and not used to lower the risk of

the next well is dereliction.

  • Don’t loose sight of the financial goal by being

blinded by scientific objectives

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3: IF YOU CAN’T VISUALIZE IT, DON’T RECOMMEND IT UNTIL YOU CAN.

Think and Wonder, Wonder and Think. Dr. Seuss

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There are tools to use (Seismic, Wells, Cross-Sections, Maps, Grav/Mag, Models etc.) but these are not substitutes for understanding but methods to use to come to an understanding. A 3D model is no better than both the data and the CONCEPT that created it. The 2 Things that most assist accurate visualizations are 1) Field Analogues 2) Hand Contouring

3: IF YOU CAN’T VISUALIZE IT, DON’T RECOMMEND IT UNTIL YOU CAN.

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4: IT IS BETTER TO BE 100% LUCKY IN AN OVERLOOKED ZONE THAN 50% RIGHT IN THE TARGET ZONE.

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5) YOU DON’T KNOW A LOT MORE THAN YOU THINK YOU DON’T KNOW.

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5) YOU DON’T KNOW A LOT MORE THAN YOU THINK YOU DON’T KNOW. CERTAINTY DOES

NOT EXIST IN THE FUTURE, ONLY IN THE PAST!

JEAN LAHERRERE 2007

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AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION!

  • Choose

the correct definition for the three terms

  • A) Uncertainty ___
  • B) Probability___
  • C) Risk___
  • 1. 1-Chance of Success (1-COS)
  • 2. The Chance of Success
  • 3. Variations in Individual Values
  • 4. The range of possible outcomes
  • 5. The deviation from the median
  • 6. The Most Likely outcome
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RESULTS

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6) CALCULATE PROBABILITIES, DEFINE UNCERTAINTIES IN ORDER TO REDUCE RISK.

Based on our integrated team analysis, the full stochastic evaluation of the property has a range of resources between 300 and 850 MMBls with the current price strip Can’t you do better than that? Just give me a number!

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  • Do not confuse

➢ Range of Possible Outcomes ➢ Variations of Individual Values ➢ Chance of Failure

6) CALCULATE PROBABILITIES, DEFINE UNCERTAINTIES IN ORDER TO REDUCE RISK.

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7) MOST FIELDS RESERVES GROW THROUGH TIME – DON’T SELL YOURSELF SHORT IN THE POST MORTEM.

Midway-Sunset Field, Estimated Ultimate Reserves through Time

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  • This is why the PRMS was created

➢ Value not just the PROVED RESERVES ➢ Value the CONTINGENT RESOURCES ➢ Value the PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES

  • Use the PRMS to plan the Work Program to advance

volumes up the ladder as fast as possible

7) MOST FIELDS RESERVES GROW THROUGH TIME – DON’T SELL YOURSELF SHORT IN THE POST MORTEM.

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8) MULTIDISCIPLINE TEAMWORK IS THE BEST SOLUTION.

Geology Land and Legal Economics Reservoir Engineering Petrophysics Geophysics Operations \Drilling\Completions HSE Adapted from John A. Masters

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  • To Determine What Questions Need to be Asked
  • To Look at the Problem with Fresh Perspectives
  • The Solution is Not Complete Until All Agree

8) MULTIDISCIPLINE TEAMWORK IS THE BEST SOLUTION.

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9) IF IT IS COMMON KNOWLEDGE IT WON’T FIND NEW OIL AND GAS.

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9) IF IT IS COMMON KNOWLEDGE IT WON’T FIND NEW OIL AND GAS.

  • A) “Everyone already knows it”
  • B) “Everyone knows it won’t work”
  • C) “It has already been looked at”
  • All things told to John Masters about the Falther

Formation that became the Elmsworth Field– the largest gas field in North America – after it had been penetrated by over 200 wells without being recognized as being productive.

  • “Business as Usual” attitude and processes are not

creative – question everything!

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10) HYDROCARBONS ARE FIRST FOUND IN THE MINDS OF EXPLORATIONISTS (MODIFIED FROM W. PRATT)

Think Left and Think Right and Think Low and Think High. Oh, the Things You can Think Up if You Only Try. Dr. Seuss

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author wish to thank Sproule Consultants, LLC. for the time and permission to prepare and present this talk. However – the contents, opinions and thoughts of this presentation are the authors alone and may not reflect the

  • pinions of Sproule Consultants.

The “10 Rules of Successful Exploration and Development” are available by contacting the author through Sproule Consultants.

8/30/2020