The African Development Bank in North Africa Before and After the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The African Development Bank in North Africa Before and After the Arab Spring Jacob Kolster Director, North Africa Region African Development Bank April 24, 2012 Outline A Brief Introduction to North Africa I. AfDB in North Africa II.
Jacob Kolster Director, North Africa Region African Development Bank April 24, 2012
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Largest consumer market in Africa
Wealthiest Region in Africa
billion (36 months for import)
– expected to rebound
Tunisia Libya Egypt Algeria Morocco Mauritania
Political Economy is changing
Resource rich – Diversified
Bottom – Up (East) Top-Down (West)
T
need to be sustained)
up
Trade Zones
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Ongoing Operations
Total Lending Accum:
Algeria
Ongoing: $1,4 mill in TA Total Accum: $ 2.94 bill
Ongoing operations: $7.65 bill of which $1.1 bill for Private Sector Operations Total Accumulated (1967-2011): $ 26 billion
Ongoing Operations
Total Lending Accum:
Ongoing Operations
Total Lending Accum:
Mauritania
Ongoing: $226 mill, $120 mill in Private Total Accum: : $775 mil
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diagnostic in 2011
economic surveillance
Governments
private sector
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Libya Morocco Mauritania Tunisia Egypt Algeria
Egypt Country Office
Algeria Country Office
Morocco Country Office
Regional Dept II
HQ in Tunis 2000 staff
Regional Dept I
Immediate Impact: Rising Borrowing Cost and Fall in FDI
Adverse Reactions of Financial Markets
Since January 2011, downgrades of Tunisia
(once) & Egypt (four times)
Egypt & Tunisia stock markets major negative corrections
CDS rates triple for Egypt
Portfolio outflows and FDIs decline
Access to finance a major issue
S&P MOODY'S FITCH Maximum Number of Downgrades In 2011 EGYPT B B2 BB- 4 times 4 notches negative negative negative MOROCCO BBB- Ba1 BBB- stable stable stable TUNISIA BBB- Baa3 BBB- 1 time 1 notch negative negative negative
Ratings as of March 2012
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Egypt Morocco France Germany
CDS trends in 2011 Stock markets in 2010 - 2012
Revolution in Tunisia
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Underlying Drivers & Challenges
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Lack of Jobs & Economic Transformation
growth < ½ %
limit
transformation
integration Exclusion & Growing Disparities
1975 2005 Egypt Tunisia Indonesia Malaysia
Production Sophistication Compared
Macroeconomic stability Attract Investors Ensure a business-friendly agenda Agenda for greater competitiveness & diversification of exports T
Ensure social justice Set for inclusive growth Adhere to democracy Ensure voice, transparency & accountability Root out corruption and level the playing field
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Political Transition: Continuity and Change
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From a private sector perspective
with doing business
environment
participation in business-related policies and regulations
New Players & Partners
Civil society and media Academic institutions and think tanks Labor unions & organizations Strong partnerships – IFI coordination
platform and beyond New Instruments and Sources New Ways and Ideas
Guarantees and risk alleviation Mobilise private funding Mobilise grants for analysis and capacity
building
Souk at-Tanmiya Consultations outside government, focus on
voice & accountability
Stronger knowledge work T
echnical assistance for nation re- engineering & building
New Strategies & New Approaches
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New Strategies for Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia Tunisia Interim Strategy approved 02/15/12 Morocco Strategy launched 04/03/12 Egypt Interim Strategy under preparation Being Strategic in times of Change: Key Elements
Uncertainty calls for flexibility
Based on constant dialogue & regular review
Scarce resources call for selectivity and leverage
Appropriate balance between immediate and long term goals
Diagnostic analysis & TA support critical Transparency, Dialogue & Communication
Preparation of NA Regional Integration Strategy Paper (2013-2017)
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Platform objectives
Information sharing
Dialogue with partner countries
joint projects, policy and analytical work
Coordinate monitoring and reporting
Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Turkey 9 IFIs support countries under the economic pillar
US chair in 2012
Morocco, Tunisia full members
G8 countries Associated countries
IFIs
Partnership countries
Platform Secretariat:
Oucomes
activity platform
(job creation and SMEs)
Deauville Partnership
Strengthen governance
Develop economic & social inclusion
Create jobs
Support private sector led growth
Advance regional/global integration
IFI Coordination Platform, Deauville Partnership
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Pillar I: Growth and economic transition Pillar II: Inclusion and reduction of regional disparities
Selectivity Leverage effect Creativity Transparency Advisory services Visibility
Maintain dialogue: Monthly meeting with the ministry Adaptability : Discussions throughout political calendar Following procedures: Mid-term review after one year
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Pillar I Reinforcing governance and social inclusion Under preparation T
Improving the competitiveness of the economy Creating the foundations for an inclusive and sustainable growth Pillar II Support green infrastructure development
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Status of dialogue:
Key Short T erm Strategic Considerations:
Early Decisions:
Constraint/Considerations:
instrument
Enhancing SLL:
Next Steps:
Strategic Focus: