#ArabYouthSurvey 1
#ArabYouthSurvey ABOUT THE 2016 SURVEY ABOUT THE 2016 SURVEY 3,500 face-to-face interviews conducted by PSB Arab youth in the age group of 18-24 years Country nationals only Sample split 50:50 male/female 16 countries: GCC: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE Levant & Yemen: Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and Yemen North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia 2
#ArabYouthSurvey METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY The study was commissioned in January 2016. The interviews were conducted from January 11 to February 22 by professional interviewers. The interviews were completed in Arabic and English. Margin of error is +/-1.65% for the total sample and larger for sub-groups. Sample details: UAE Oman Qatar Bahrain KSA Kuwait Egypt Jordan Lebanon N=300 N=200 N=200 N=200 N=300 N=200 N=300 N=200 N=200 Abu Dhabi Muscat Doha Manama Riyadh Kuwait City Cairo Amman Beirut 40% 50% 55% 100% 40% 20% 50% 50% 60% Dubai Batinah Al Rayyan Jeddah Al Hawalli Alexandria Irbid Saida 40% 50% 45% 40% 30% 25% 25% 20% Sharjah Dammam Al Ahmadi Mansoura Zarqa Tripoli 20% 20% 20% 25% 25% 20% Farwaniya 30% ORIGINAL COUNTRIES IN 2008-10 3
#ArabYouthSurvey METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY Sample details: Iraq Tunisia Libya Algeria Morocco Yemen Palestine N=250 N=200 N=200 N=200 N=200 N=200 N=150 Baghdad Tunis Tripoli Algiers Casablanca Sanaa West Bank 50% 50% 50% 50% 25% 50% 50% Irbil Sfax Benghazi Oran Fes Al Hudaydah Gaza 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 50% Basrah Soussa Misrata Constantine Rabat Ta’izz 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% Marrakech 25% NEW COUNTRY IN 2011 NEW COUNTRIES IN 2012 NEW COUNTRIES IN 2013 NEW COUNTRY IN 2014 4
arabyouthsurvey.com #ArabYouthSurvey 5
1 1 AN O AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF VERWHELMING MAJORITY OF YOUNG ARABS REJECT YOUNG ARABS REJECT DAESH AESH (ISIS) (ISIS) AND BELIEVE THE GROUP WILL FAIL AND BELIEVE THE GROUP WILL F AIL TO EST O ESTABLISH AN ISLAMIC ST ABLISH AN ISLAMIC STATE. TE. 6
#ArabYouthSurvey FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A RO FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW, ARAB YOUTH VIEW THE RISE OF D , ARAB YOUTH VIEW THE RISE OF DAESH AS THE T AESH AS THE TOP OBST OP OBSTACLE F ACLE FACING ACING THE MIDDLE EAST AND NEARL THE MIDDLE EAST AND NEARLY 4 IN 5 EXPRESS CONCERN ABOUT THE TERRORIST GROUP’S RISE. Y 4 IN 5 EXPRESS CONCERN ABOUT THE TERRORIST GROUP’S RISE. How concerned would you say you are What do you believe is the biggest obstacle about the rise of Daesh? facing the Middle East? Rise of Daesh 50 Ti reat of terrorism 38 1 Unemployment 36 22 Civil unrest 34 Rising cost of living 30 Concerned Lack of strong political leadership 25 Not Concerned Don't Know Palestinian-Israel con fm ict 23 Lack of Arab unity 22 77 Lack of democracy 22 Loss of traditional values 17 Ti e threat of a nuclear Iran 17 50% are very concerned Slow economic growth 16 Lack of opportunities for women 13 Other 1 Don't Know 1 7
#ArabYouthSurvey NEARL NEARLY 4 IN 5 YOUNG ARABS RULE OUT ANY SUPPOR Y 4 IN 5 YOUNG ARABS RULE OUT ANY SUPPORT FOR THE GROUP EVEN IF D T FOR THE GROUP EVEN IF DAESH ST AESH STOPPED USING OPPED USING SO MUCH VIOLENCE AND MOST BELIEVE IT WILL UL SO MUCH VIOLENCE AND MOST BELIEVE IT WILL ULTIMA TIMATEL TELY F Y FAIL T AIL TO EST O ESTABLISH AN ISLAMIC ST ABLISH AN ISLAMIC STATE. TE. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the statement? “If Daesh did not use so much violence, “Daesh will ultimately establish an Islamic I could see myself supporting it” State in the Arab world” 15 13 9 Agree 9 Agree Disagree Disagree Unsure/ Unsure/ Don't Know Don't Know 78 76 1 9 9 GCC 7 2 71 19 10 G C C Levant L e v a n t 87 7 6 8 9 7 4 & Yemen & Y e m e n N. Africa 71 17 12 1 1 1 3 N . A f r i c a 7 6 8
2 2 LACK OF JOBS AND OPPOR LACK OF JOBS AND OPPORTUNITIES TUNITIES IS SEEN AS THE NUMBER ONE IS SEEN AS THE NUMBER ONE RECRUITMENT DRIVER FOR RECRUITMENT DRIVER FOR DAESH AESH. . 9
#ArabYouthSurvey LACK OF JOBS IS SEEN AS THE T LACK OF JOBS IS SEEN AS THE TOP REASON YOUNG ARABS BELIEVE PEOPLE JOIN D OP REASON YOUNG ARABS BELIEVE PEOPLE JOIN DAESH, AESH, AL ALTHOUGH 1 IN 4 DO NO THOUGH 1 IN 4 DO NOT UNDERST T UNDERSTAND WHY ANYBOD AND WHY ANYBODY W Y WOULD JOIN THE GROUP OULD JOIN THE GROUP. . Which of the following, if any, do you think are the primary reasons why some young people are attracted to Daesh? Please choose up to three reasons. Lack of jobs and opportunities for young people 24 Ti e belief that their interpretation of Islam is superior to others 18 In 8 of 16 Religious tensions between Sunni, Shia and other religions in the region 17 countries, lack of jobs Ti e rise of secular Western values in the region 15 is considered to be A desire to establish a caliphate, ruled by religious values 13 the top reason Ti e Palestinian-Israel con fm ict 13 Ti e American invasion of Iraq 12 Perceived corruption of national Arab governments 12 Ti e chance for glory and to be recognised as a hero 9 Perceived supression of religious values by Arab governments 8 Western governments trying to impose democracy and their secular values in the region 7 Ti e chance to be on the winning side of a fj ght 6 Ti e presence of Western troops in the region 5 Other 3 I can't explain it – I don't understand why anybody would want to join Daesh 25 10
#ArabYouthSurvey FEWER THAN HALF OF ARAB YOUTH BELIEVE THERE ARE GOOD JOB OPPOR FEWER THAN HALF OF ARAB YOUTH BELIEVE THERE ARE GOOD JOB OPPORTUNITIES A TUNITIES AVAILABLE T AILABLE TO THEM, O THEM, AND THE ISSUE IS P AND THE ISSUE IS PAR ARTICULARL TICULARLY ACUTE IN THE COUNTRIES WHERE D Y ACUTE IN THE COUNTRIES WHERE DAESH HAS ACTIVEL AESH HAS ACTIVELY RECRUITED YOUNG PEOPLE. Y RECRUITED YOUNG PEOPLE. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the statement? “There are good job opportunities in the area I live in” All Countries Most Sceptical Countries Yemen 82 2 16 Libya 71 7 22 19 Palestine 20 56 24 Tunisia 28 56 16 Agree 44 Disagree Lebanon 47 21 32 Unsure/ Iraq 49 39 12 Don't Know Disagree Agree Unsure/Don't Know 37 11
3 3 MANY YOUNG ARABS BELIEVE SUNNI- MANY YOUNG ARABS BELIEVE SUNNI- SHIA RELA SHIA RELATIONS ARE DETERIORA TIONS ARE DETERIORATING TING AND THA AND THAT RELIGION PLA T RELIGION PLAYS T YS TOO BIG OO BIG OF A ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST OF A ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. . 12
#ArabYouthSurvey NEARL NEARLY HALF OF YOUNG ARABS THINK SUNNI-SHIA RELA Y HALF OF YOUNG ARABS THINK SUNNI-SHIA RELATIONS HA TIONS HAVE DETERIORA VE DETERIORATED O TED OVER VER THE P THE PAST FIVE YEARS, A PERCEPTION THA AST FIVE YEARS, A PERCEPTION THAT EXISTS ACROSS THE ARAB W T EXISTS ACROSS THE ARAB WORLD. ORLD. Compared to five years ago, would you say the Sunni-Shia relations have…? Countries Most Likely to Say Worsened 11 (Showing % Worsened) 18 Yemen 88 Jordan 84 Libya 75 47 24 62 Iraq Worsened Stayed about the same Improved Don't know 13
#ArabYouthSurvey A COMPELLING MAJORITY OF ARAB YOUTH BELIEVE THE SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE A COMPELLING MAJORITY OF ARAB YOUTH BELIEVE THE SUNNI-SHIA DIVIDE IS A SIGNIFICANT DRIVER OF UNREST IN THE REGION IS A SIGNIFICANT DRIVER OF UNREST IN THE REGION Which of the following is closest to your view about the Sunni-Shia divide and the ongoing unrest in the region? The Sunni-Shia divide… 17% do not think the divide has a signi fj cant negative impact Is the primary reason for the ongoing unrest in the region 14 3 Is one of the major reasons for the ongoing unrest 11 Does not have a signi fj cant impact on the ongoing unrest Has no impact at all on the ongoing unrest in the region 20 Don't know 52 72% think the divide has a signi fj cant negative impact 14
#ArabYouthSurvey OVERALL, MORE THAN HALF BELIEVE THA VERALL, MORE THAN HALF BELIEVE THAT RELIGION PLA T RELIGION PLAYS YS TOO BIG OF A ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST OO BIG OF A ROLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. . How strongly do you agree or disagree with the statement? “Religion plays too big of a role in the Middle East” 19 GCC 61 25 14 Levant Agree 44 37 19 & Yemen Disagree N. Africa 47 25 28 Unsure/ 29 Don't Know Agree Disagree Unsure/Don't Know 52 15
4 4 SAUDI ARABIA, U SAUDI ARABIA, UAE AND THE UNITED AE AND THE UNITED ST STATES ARE SEEN AS T TES ARE SEEN AS TOP ALLIES IN OP ALLIES IN THE REGION WHILE IRAN’S INFLUENCE THE REGION WHILE IRAN’S INFLUENCE IS ON THE RISE. IS ON THE RISE. 16
#ArabYouthSurvey FOR THE FIFTH YEAR RUNNING, SAUDI ARABIA IS SEEN AS THE TOP ALL FOR THE FIFTH YEAR RUNNING, SAUDI ARABIA IS SEEN AS THE T OP ALLY IN THE REGION Y IN THE REGION WHILE IRAN’S INFLUENCE IS ON THE RISE. WHILE IRAN’S INFLUENCE IS ON THE RISE. Who would you say is your country’s biggest ally? 2015 2014 2013 2012 KSA KSA 1 KSA KSA UAE UAE 2 US UAE 31 Qatar Qatar 3 UAE Qatar 28 Kuwait Kuwait 4 Qatar Kuwait 25 US US 5 France US 15 14 13 12 12 10 10 KSA UAE US Egypt UK Iran Qatar Kuwait France Turkey 17
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