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Thai Oil Public Company Limited Thai Oil Public Company Limited - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Thai Oil Public Company Limited Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presented to Investors Presented to Investors Thai Corporate Day arranged by CIMB-GK Thai Corporate Day arranged by CIMB-GK 4 May 2006 4 May 2006 1 Disclaimer Disclaimer The


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Thai Corporate Day arranged by CIMB-GK

4 May 2006

Thai Corporate Day arranged by CIMB-GK

4 May 2006

Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presented to Investors Thai Oil Public Company Limited Presented to Investors

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Disclaimer Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. Please do not circulate this material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.

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Vision and Mission for 2006-2010 Vision and Mission for 2006 Vision and Mission for 2006-

  • 2010

2010

Vision

Thaioil seeks to be one of the leading fully integrated refining and petrochemical companies in the region recognized for our sustainable growth, optimum stakeholder value, and commitment to environmental and social well-being.

Mission

To be PTT’s flagship refinery through optimized management of the group’s refining

portfolio

To expand facilities to better meet domestic demand growth To enhance the competitive advantage of our power generation operations to further

solidify the core refining business

To create a high-performance organization that promotes teamwork, innovation and trust

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Presentation Outline Presentation Outline

I) I) Thaioil Thaioil’ ’s s Overview Overview II) II) Business Environment & Industry Update Business Environment & Industry Update III) III) Financial Performance Financial Performance

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I) Thaioil Overview I) Thaioil Overview

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One of Thailand’s premier companies One of Thailand One of Thailand’ ’s premier companies s premier companies

2nd largest in Thailand in terms of total revenue (2005) ~ US$ 6.3 bn. (after PTT ~ US$ 24 bn). Ranked No. 8 on SET in terms of market capitalization ~ US$ 3.5 bn. (3% of SET). One of 13 Thai companies named by “Forbes” in its global survey for 2,000 biggest

  • companies. TOP ranked # 1,330 in 2005, improving from # 1,595 from the previous year.

Thaioil’s IPO (US$ 830 mn) is the largest (and arguably most successful) listing on The Stock

Exchange of Thailand since PTT’s in 2001 (US$ 637 mn).

Thaioil is the largest and most complex refinery in Thailand, the Flagship refinery of the PTT

group and of strategic importance to PTT and the Country’s energy security.

Free Float (Thai) 19.81%

Note: As of 30 March 2006

PTT 49.54% Free Float (Foreign) 23.47% Others 7.18%

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Key Strengths Key Strengths Key Strengths

More diversified earnings through significant increase in subsidiary contributions Solid growths through de-bottlenecking & expansion Thailand’s largest and

  • ne of the region’s

most advanced and competitive refineries Technological superiority & logistical advantages Highly capable & experienced management team Continuously strengthening financial profile Continued favorable industry outlook with high barrier to entry PTT’s flagship refinery

  • high degree of
  • perational & financial

cooperation

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Mutually Beneficial Relationship with PTT Mutually Beneficial Relationship with PTT Mutually Beneficial Relationship with PTT

LT strategic shareholder & joint-investment Flagship refinery

LT Strategic Partnership

Product offtake Crude procurement Processing arrangement Knowledge transfer & shared services Close management collaboration & secondment Significant contributions to PTT’s bottom line (11% in 2005) Strong business/financial support (undertaking & obligations)

Business Partnership Operational Synergies Mutually Financial Benefits/Supports

Relationship with PTT enhances the level of integration without passing on the downside risks. All transactions take place at arm’s length and observe strong corporate governance principles.

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Accomplishment in 2005

Business/Operational

Maintained high utilization at 104% for 2nd consecutive year. This high utilization to be achieved in 2006. Turnaround of performance of all subsidiaries post-acquisition resulted in significant contributions to the Group. Thaioil’s management capability was evident by an improvement in overall performance of the Group, through

  • perational integration & synergies.

Acquired 24% of IPT in Mar’05 from Unocal for US$ 12.75 mn.(equivalent to US$ 76,000/MW). All approved investment projects, e.g., CDU-3 revamp, SBM, etc., have progressed as planned. TOP

  • Prepayment of US$ 100 mn. in Mar’05, thereby reducing interest cost
  • Tremendous success in debt refinancing in Jun’05.

IPT & TPX - Successful negotiation with creditors for better terms and conditions

Finance

Best Newly Listed Company in Asia and Most Improved Companies in Asia for the Year 2005 Best achievement in Energy Conservation (Refineries & Chemical) for the Year 2005 from the

Ministry of Energy

Best Newly Listed Company in Thailand for the Year 2004 Reliability Award from SGSI for CDU-3 and CCR-2 performance for the Year 2004

Leading position when benchmarked with peers (Solomon/SGSI)

Recognitions

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Thaioil Corporate Structure Thaioil Corporate Structure Thaioil Corporate Structure

9% 55%

Thaioil (TOP) Petrochem/ Lube Base Oil Power

PTT 26% JPOWER 19%

Transportation Refinery

Independent Power (Thailand) (IPT)

IPP program 2-on-1 Gas-fired, Combined cycle Electricity 700 MW

Related Business & Income Stability

Utility Supply to Group

Thaioil Power (TP)

SPP program 3-on-1 Combined cycle Electricity 118 MW Steam 168 T/hr

PTT 20% Thaioil 24% 100%

Thai Paraxylene (TPX) Thai Lube Base (TLB)

Capacity: Current:348 Kt/y (PX) 72 Kt/y (MX) Mid 07: 853 Kt/y total 408 Kt/y (PX) 160 Kt/y (Bz) 136 Kt/y (To) 149 Kt/y (MX)

Value Enhancement

Capacity: Lube Base oil: 270 Kt/y

100% 100%

Thaioil Marine (TM) Thappline

Capacity: Current: 220 Kbd Mid 07: 275 Kbd A fleet of 5 oil & petrochemical vessels with int’l classifications Total capacity: approx 30,000 DWT Multi-product Pipeline Capacity: 26,000 mn Litres/Y.

56%

Core Refining Operations Product Marketing Support

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II) Business Environment & Industry Update II) Business Environment & Industry Update

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Regional Oil Demand, Refinery Utilization and GRM Regional Oil Demand, Refinery Utilization and GRM

90% 91% 86% 81% 82% 83% 82% 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95%

China

  • S. Korea

Japan India Others Utilization

2 4 6 8 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

TOP’s GRM included MX margin

US$/bbl

Source: *Singapore Complex GRM from Bloomberg

Oil Demand (Kbd) Refinery Utilization

19,813 20,369 20,429 20,676 21,478 22,604 23,048

Source: FACTS, Spring 2006 Preliminary *Exclude feeds to petrochemical plants

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Continued Tight Domestic Oil Demand/Supply in 2005

764 765 712 717 738 731 83 92 82 88 90% 87% 84% 90% 85% 89%

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 2005 2004 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Oil Demand Feed for Petrochem Net Export % Utilization rate (RHS)

Oil Production by Refinery 1) Domestic Oil Demand/Refinery Intake

Kbd 862 925 (Intake) 903 911 867 920

Intake (kbd) 914 230* 153 139 139 178 63 12 Utilizaton 87% 104% 90% 92% 92% 83% 53% 60%

215 145 120 120 101 59 10

TOP Esso R R C SPR TPI B C P R PC

Kbd

  • Oil demand for 2005 was approx. 738 kbd, higher than last

year by 1%.

  • Domestic demand in H2/05 was reduced, compared with

H1/05 due to rainy season, flooding and the impact of diesel subsidy removal in Jun’05.

  • While supply remained tight, local refineries’ utilization rate

was 87% in 2005 down from 89% in 2004, reflecting major turnaround of RRC/SPRC in Oct 05.

Total Country Remark: 1)Exclude feedstock for petrochemical plant Source: Ministry of Energy and Company 108 412 337 75 125 93 2005 105 412 337 75 132 83 2004 +4% Fuel Oil (5%) Gasoline +12% LPG

  • Middle Distillate
  • Diesel
  • Jet Fuel

+/(-)

Oil Demand by Products Volume (Kbd)

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Operational Accomplishment in 2005 Operational Accomplishment in 2005

TOP

  • Interim maintenance shutdown of CDU-3 in Q1 enhanced plant efficiency,

thereby allowed sustainability of high utilization rate at 104%.

TOP

  • Hydrocarbon Management Review activities helped contribute US$ 0.29/bbl intake.

TPX

  • Change of catalyst in Jan’05 increased PX production by 20% (+60,000 TPA).

TLB

  • Co-operation between TOP/TLB in productions management improved TLB plant reliability & profits.

IPT

  • Completion of CT-2 replacement allowed a full 700 MW run as from Jun’05.

Utilities - No impact in production following regional-wide water shortage crisis.

77% 77% 91% 41% 82% 79% 104% 97% 92% 92% 71% 104%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Refinery Utilization TPX Prod. Rate TLB Prod. Rate IPT A vailability TP Utilization TM Utilization

2004 2005

% YoY Increased utilization/production rates were seen throughout the group leading to increased profitability.

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One of the Most Complex Refineries in Asia Pacific One of the Most Complex Refineries in Asia Pacific

  • Oil & Gas Journal

Oil & Gas Journal

73% 67% 49% 40% 32% 34% 27% 24% 24% 23% Thaioil Caltex Australia Zhenhai Refining Singapore Petroleum BPCL S-Oil Indian Oil GS Caltex Sinopec Hindustan

Upgrading-to-Refining Ratio (1)

Higher conversion ratios yield higher refining margins

  • Add. 50 kbd

by Mid 07

59%

*

(%)

Hydrotreating-to-Refining Ratio (2)

96% 63% 63% 64% 52% 44% 42% 42% 30% 28%

Thaioil S-Oil Zhenhai Refining BCP GS Caltex Singapore Petroleum SK Corp ESSO Malaysia Petron BPCL

Thaioil can meet more stringent product specifications at lower cost

78%

  • Add. 50 kbd

by Mid 07

Source: 2004 Oil and Gas Journal and *Company (1) Hydrocracking, catalytic cracking, thermal cracking, catalytic reforming and isomerization capacities divided by total crude distillation capacity (2) Hydrocracking, hydrotreating and hydrodesulfurization capacities divided by total crude distillation capacity

*

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30 40 50 60

J 2 4 M M J S N J ' 5 M M J S N

With multiple cracking and treating facilities,

Thaioil has flexibility to select most economical crude capitalizing

  • n

the favorable sweet and sour differential to

  • ptimize refinery operation.

2005 Average Oil Prices-MOPS (US$/bbl) Up to 80% of crude from Middle East (whose

price is the most attractive) is normally

  • processed. This is especially advantageous

in a persistently high oil price environment.

US$/bbl

Tapis Dubai

64.03 Diesel 0.5% 8.57 TP-DB 40.31 67.63 62.09 49.32 57.89 Fuel Oil Jet ULG 95 Dubai Tapis

Thaioil’s Crude Mix and Oil Product Yield

Flexible Configuration Allows for Flexible Configuration Allows for Complex Margin Optimization Complex Margin Optimization

80% 75% 6% 6% 14% 19% 16% 11% 60% 55% 56% 30% 10% 33% 29%

Middle East Far East Heavy Light Distillate Middle

2005

Others

2004

Crude Product Domestic Demand

2005

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Excellent Relationships with Customers Excellent Relationships with Customers

Customer satisfaction was evident in robust sales figures to major oil companies in 2005. In response to weak domestic demand in H2/05 following oil subsidy removal, Thaioil switched to focus on exporting more jet fuel at the expense of diesel to capitalize on more favorable price. Flexibility and complexity of the refinery enables Thaioil to switch among refining products to take advantage of price differentials and to maximize margins.

Export, 12% PTT, 46% Shell/Caltex, 13% TPX 3% BCP 6% BCP 4% TPX 11% Shell/Caltex, 14% PTT, 49% Export, 14% Domestic Independent, 15%

2005

Domestic Independent, 21%

Total Sales 14,351 Mn. L/year (+ 9%) 2004

Including 7% export of PTT Including 1% export of PTT

Total Sales 13,182 Mn. L/year

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III) III) Financial Performance

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Financial Highlights Financial Highlights -

  • Consolidated

Consolidated

Transportation 1% Lube Base2) 11%

Refinery 60%

Power 4% Transportation

  • 1%

Lube Base 1%/

Refinery 96%

Power 2% +24%

Net Profit1)

2005 2004

Transportation 0%

Refinery 70%

Power 9% Transportation 0%

Refinery 92%

Power 6% +14%

2005 2004

EBITDA1)

EBITDA for 2005 rose by 14% to Bt 29,003 mn., thanks

to tight demand/supply, strong GRM and significant contributions from subsidiaries.

Contributions from subsidiaries represent 30% of

Group’s EBITDA. Higher contributions from subs, particularly TPX & TLB., were due to:

Full year consolidation in 2005 Turnaround of their business & operations as a result

  • f industry cycle & Thaioil’s integration/synergies

Higher plant utilizations Change in catalyst in TPX in Q1/05, coupled with

higher PX price driven by demand from China

Increase in earning from TLB due to stronger lube

base price and tight supply

Net profit for 2005 rose by 24% to Bt 18,753 mn.

Contributions from subsidiaries account for 40%. These was due to:

Full year consolidation of TPX and TLB Higher contribution from power business. IPT turned

from loss of Bt 301 mn to profit of Bt 443 mn.

TLB’s impairment reversal ( - Bt 2.9 bn)

29,003 Bt Mn. 29,003 Bt Mn. 25,454 Bt Mn. 25,454 Bt Mn. 18,753 Bt Mn. 18,753 Bt Mn. 15,073 Bt Mn. 15,073 Bt Mn. Petrochem 15% Lube Base 6% Petrochem/ 24% Petrochem 2%/ Petrochem 1% Lube Base 1%

Remark: 1)Percentage was based on total amount before deducting inter-company transaction. 2)Percentage excluded TLB’s impairment reversal of Bt 2,894 mn.

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Turnaround of All Group Companies Turnaround of All Group Companies Turnaround of All Group Companies

TLB*

Revenue: 14,206 / 8,558 Net Profit: 1,752 / 1,201 (+49%) EBITDA: 1,767 / 1,365 Revenue: 3,107 / 2,942 Net Profit: 472 / 454 (+4%) EBITDA: 790 / 890

100% 100%

Revenue: 8,042 / 4,349 Net Profit: 443 / (301) (+247%) EBITDA: 1,638 / 649

56%

Revenue: 32,127 / 8,390 Net Profit: 3,670 / (427) (+959%) EBITDA: 4,376 / 210 EBITDA adj. MX: 1,400 / 210 Revenue: 691 / 906 Net Profit: 84 / (112) (+175%) EBITDA: 82 / 49

2) 1)

TP TM IPT

55% 100%

Revenue: 246,213 / 176,993 Net Profit: 9,596 / 14,641 (-34%) EBITDA: 20,356 / 23,623 EBITDA adj. MX : 23,332 / 23,623

1)

TOP

FY 2005 / FY 2004 (Bt. Mn.)

TPX*

TOP’s corp. income tax rate = 25%. Group’s effective tax rate in 2005 was 18%.

24%

*TPX and TLB-Resulted from FY/04 operating results

1)Reflected sale of MX unit to TPX as from April 2005 2)Excluded special item of Bt 2,894 million

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Oil Price Movement and GRM

2 4 6 8 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Jan'04 M M J S N Jan'05 M M J S N

Oil Price Movement

  • Strong demand and tight supply supported high oil prices

during the first 9M/05.

  • Hurricanes in US and slow recoveries of US refineries fueled

gasoline, diesel and other oil prices in Q3/05.

  • Regional GRM was pressured in Q4/05, due to warmer winter

in US, high inventory level, high VLCC freight in the region as well as lackluster demand resulting from high oil price after subsidy reduction/removal in certain countries.

US$/bbl

Diesel Gasoline Tapis Oman Fuel Oil

US$/bbl

Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 FY/04 FY/05

8.75 6.55 8.52 7.50 6.62

Q4/05

3.00

~7.50

(5,045) (402) +153 (1,071) +192 (3,267) +69,220 +/(-) 337 (734) FX 14,641 9,596 Net Profit (2,979) (3,381) Tax (5,099) (4,946) Depreciation (1,619) (1,427) Interest 23,623 20,356 EBITDA 176,993 246,213 Sales 2004 2005 Company (Bt. mn.)

Prepayment/ Refinance FX End 05/04 = 41.17/39.20 Bt/US$ Sold MX unit to TPX

Thaioil’s Financial Highlights/Refinery

Loss carried forward in 2004

Thaioil’s Integrated GRM

Remark: MX unit sold to TPX since 1 April 2005

MX, FX, Tax

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Regional Oil Demand/Supply Regional Oil Demand/Supply

Regional Oil Demand Asia Pacific Refining Capacity Additions

China 6,459 60 512 576 1,256 India 2,651 88 390 40 890 Indonesia 1,106 – 100 – 150 Thailand 1,049 – 35 50 – Taiw an 1,237 42 56 – – Pakistan 272 – – 100 – Vietnam 5 – – – 121 Others 10,185

  • 12

108 166 Total 22,964 178 1,093 874 2,462 2008-2010F Kbd 2005A 2006F 2005 Existing 2007F

Asia-Pacific Demand/Supply Growth

445 1,132 1,890 4,162 178 1,271 2,145 4,607

2005A 2006F 2007F 2008-10F

Accum Demand Growth Accum Supply Growth

  • China’s 2004 demand growth (15%) decelerated in 2005 (to

4.7%), while its GDP grew by 9%.

  • Decoupling of GDP growth & oil consumption (in China &
  • ther countries) could not sustain.
  • Although AP refining capacity addition is forecasted to be
  • versupply growth by 445 kbd by 2010, refining utilization

rate will continue to be high level.

  • Regional oil demand/supply is, therefore, believed to

continue tight. Kbd

Source: FACTS, Spring 2006 Preliminary China 6,145 6,431 4.70% 6,866 8,548 +5.7% Japan 5,077 5,066

  • 0.20%

5,035 4,961 (0.4%) India 2,337 2,384 2.00% 2,475 2,848 +3.4% South Korea 2,218 2,237 0.90% 2,283 2,431 +1.5% Thailand 948 970 2.30% 994 1,093 +2.4% Others 5,879 5,960 1.40% 6,084 6,885 +2.7% Total Demand 22,604 23,048 2.00% 23,737 26,766 +2.9% Total Supply 22,786 22,964 0.80% 24,057 27,393 +3.2% 2006F 2010F % Annual Growth (2005-2010F) Kbd 2004A 2005A % Growth

*

* Including Reliance Refinery 540 kbd

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Paraxylene Paraxylene Business Business

50 0 1,0 0 0 1,50 0 2 ,0 0 0 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 10 A TC Exxon TPX D emand

  • Mn. MT

Operating Rate %

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Global & Regional PX demand is expected to grow continuously, led by China where demand growth of 6% is forecasted.

Domestic PX demand will increase to 1,756 KTA in 2006 after completion of the new Indorama (429kta) & Siam Mitsui (251 kta) PTA plants

Global Demand Outpaced Capacity Expansion Domestic Paraxylene Supply and Demand

KTA

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Demand Total PX Capacity Source: CMAI

PX, MX and Platformate Spot Prices TPX’s Financial Highlights

+18% 79% 97% Utilization Rate +4,097 (427) 3,670 Net Profit +4,166 210 4,376 EBITDA +/(-) 2004 2005 (Bt. mn.)

Plat PX MX

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 J a n 4 M M J S N J a n ' 5 M M J S N

US$/Ton

PX-MX PX-Plat

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TLB

Base Oil Market Outlook TLB’s Financial Highlights Lube Base Market

Source: Shell Trading Source: AP Base Oil Conference

(11%) 82% 71%

  • MPU

Utilization Rate +3,445 1,201 4,646 Net Profit +402 1,365 1,767 EBITDA +/(-) 2004 2005 (Bt. mn.)

200 400 600 800

J a n / 4 M M J S N J a n ' 5 M M J S N

HSFO 500SN

Lube Base - HSFO

US$/Ton

2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015

Higher growth for Group II

Shutdown in Q1/05

  • Global & regional base oil demand will continue

to grow especially Group II / III.

  • Although demand for Group 1 base oil declined,

base oil supply of Group 1 is still tight due to permanent shut-down of some base oil plants in Australia, Phillipines.

  • The spread between Lube Base and HSFO prices

has widen since 2004. It is forecasted to be peaked in 2006 and gradually come down due to new capacity addition.

  • 15 synergy projects are under study and

implementation which will enhance profitability for TLB and Thaioil.

Global Base Demand by Tiers Global Base Demand by Region

  • W. Europe

Group II Rest of World Group III Group I Asia Pacific

  • N. America
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Financial Strength

2,486

3,028

Dec’02 Dec’04 Current Assets Non- current Assets Other Liabilities Total Equities

US$ mn.

2,816

Dec’05

2,462

Dec’03 Long-term Debts

1,564 1,279 982

874

3.0 4.8 11.2 13.6 6.5 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.5 3.5 1.3 0.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

ICR LT Debt/Equity Debt/EBITDA

Interest Coverage LT Debt/Equity Net Debt/EBITDA

Remark: Convert by 41 Baht/US$

Total LT Loan is 83% in US$ to match with US$-linked revenue. Total fixed interest is approx. 50% of total borrowing. Average cost of debt is approx. 6% p.a. (before corporate tax)

Dividend Policy

At least 25% of net profit after specified reserve

  • Bt. 1.80/share paid in 2005 (25% dividend payout)
  • Bt. 3.50/share paid in 2006 (40% dividend payout)

Balance Sheet Key Financial Ratios

Since 2002

  • Total Assets:

up ~Bt 23 bn (+23%)

  • Total LT Debt:

down ~Bt 28 bn (-44%)

  • Total Equities:

up ~Bt 26 bn (+70%)

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Investment & Expansion Projects

US$ mn. Total In 2005-07 CDU-3 Debottlenecking 218 Mercury Removal Units 6 SBM Expansion 150 Power Projects 43 Maintenance Projects 55 TPX (Expansion) 115 TLB (Synergy Projects) 10 Thaioil Marine 8 Total 605*

Size: 50 kbd (additional 23%) EPC: ABB PMC: Foster Wheeler Investment Cost: US$ 4,000/bbl Expected C.O.D : 1H07 Size: 52”diameter * 14.5 km long pipeline EPC: SAIPEM PMC: Bechtel Expected C.O.D: 1H07 Benefit: Freight saving Size: 433,000 tons/yr (additional) Expected C.O.D: 1H07 Benefit: Margin based on aromatics (BTX) over ULG95 For example, TLB/TOP Hot Oil Exchange Cost: US$ 3 mn Benefit: Enhance CDU-1 feed by 5 kbd Expected C.O.D: Mid 2006 * Excluded Ethanol and IPT project

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Investment Projects under Study Investment Projects under Study Ethanol Plant Ethanol Plant

Background TOP Ethanol Project

Government plans to phase out MTBE by early

2007 and Ethanol will be used as oxygenated component.

Insufficient domestic Ethanol supply due to high

production cost and insufficient Ethanol plant capacity

Abundant feedstock (Tapioca Chips)

Ethanol Capacity: 1 mn. L/day Feedstock-Tapioca Chips: 850 KTA

  • Est. Investment Cost:

US$ 200 mn.

  • Est. Project IRR:

> 20% Project Development Period: 2 yrs. Location: Central Part

Rationales

Government promotion Supply of raw material is abundant because Thailand is the world largest tapioca chips exporter

  • Thailand exports more than 3 mn. tons/yr, which can be used for Ethanol production of ~ 3.5 mn. L/day

Tapioca chips’ price and availability is less volatile, compared with other feedstock (e.g. molasses) Low cost production due to economy of scale

Under Detail Study and Risk Assessment Decision to Invest within Q2/06

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Conclusion Conclusion

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Conclusion

  • The year 2005 marks another record year for Thaioil, driven mainly by
  • high oil prices, fuelled by geopolitical tensions & harsh weather
  • tight demand/supply of regional refining capacity
  • successful refinancing, and
  • significant turnaround/contributions from subsidiaries, resulting from business restructuring &

synergy within the group

  • Outlook for 2006 remains favorable, notwithstanding recent volatility of GRM’s, due to: –
  • inability of regional refining capacity amidst growing demand, fuelled by continuing

economic expansions in the region

  • TOP’s highly complex and integrated facilities will allow it to continue to capitalize on sweet-sour

crude price differential.

  • MRU completion will allow it to increase local crude to capture higher margin
  • synergy projects amongst group companies, which will further enhance yields of TOP (+5kpd) and
  • subsidiaries (e.g., TLB catalyst change), ahead of the completion of debottlenecking in 2007, and
  • continuous robust contributions from subsidiaries
  • Further interest cost reduction e.g. prepayment of long-term loan 120 US$ million in Q1/06
  • All approved and developing investment projects are going forward to lay down a foundation for sustainable and

strategic growth

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Appendix Appendix

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Aerial View of Facilities Aerial View of Facilities Aerial View of Facilities

Taken 9 September 2004

TPX TPX IPT IPT TLB TLB TP TP

Thaioil Thaioil Land area ~ 777 acres (1,963 rais)

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Strategic Location

  • The site is in the Eastern region, 124 km from Bangkok
  • Has 2 mooring facilities for crude receiving and product

export

  • Close to market by connecting to multi-product pipeline
  • Has space available for future expansion

Source: Ministry of Energy 2003

9% 10% 59%

11% 11%

SARABURI LUMLUKKA DONMUANG SUVARNABHUMI Esso

GULF OF THAILAND

Shell (RRC) Caltex (SPRC) MAP TA PHUT SRIRACHA

Ø24”, 134 km Ø18”, 38 km Ø10”, 29 km Ø18”, 92 km

Main Line Expansion Pipeline SBM Facility

Domestic demand distribution THAIOIL

Bangchak TPI

SBM

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Thaioil Refinery Simplified Process Diagram

CDU-1 CDU-2 CDU-3 TCU 19,300 HCU-1 FCCU 10,300 CCR-1 HDT-1 KMT 2,400 HDS-1 LPG ULG 95 JET KEROSENE GAS OIL ULG 91 HCU-2 47,600 CCR-2 50,000 HVU-1 HVU-2 HVU-3 95,000 HDT-2 HDT-3 74,900 205,000 FUEL OIL HDS-2 HDS-3 74,000 MX MX* 34,300 Crude

Distillation/Separation Conversion/Upgrading Treating

Long Residue LVGO Gas Oil Kerosene CDU Overhead Short Residue TC Residue TC Waxy Heavy Cycle Oil HC Gas Oil Heavy Naphtha Platformate LPG Light Plat Light Cycle Oil H C K e r

  • Waxy

CC Gasoline ADIP Isomerate NGL 72 RON Mixed Xylene 50 RON 70 RON ISOM 21,500 Waxy IN-LINE BLEND BATCH BLEND Light Naphtha Imported LR TC Kero/GO 95 RON 103 RON 89 RON 91 RON

*Sold to TPX in Apr’05

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34

Excellent Position With Respect Excellent Position With Respect to Domestic Competition to Domestic Competition

Major Refineries in Thailand with Respect to Capacity and Configuration

10% 16% 21% 21% 16% 23% 60% 50% 56% 56% 40% 58% 34% 23% 23% 14% 19% 30% 30% 220 kbd (21%) 170 kbd (16%) 150 kbd (15%) 150 kbd (15%) 215 kbd (21%) 120 kbd (12%)

Middle Heavy Light Thaioil Esso RRC SPRC TPI* BCP

MX ISOM 2 CCR 2 HCU 2 HDS FCC TCU 3 CDU CCR HCU HDS TCU CDU PU CCR HDS FCC 2 CDU CCR RFCC CDU ISOM DCC Cond. Splitter CDU PENEX PU HDS 2 CDU

*

Petrochemical Feed

1) 12%

Source: Ministry of Energy and The Company. 1) BCP long residue sent for upgrading at TOP

  • Thaioil has the largest capacity and most sophisticated refinery in Thailand.
  • Various conversion units enable Thaioil to maximize middle distillate production, which represents the majority of Thai

market demand and provides significant flexibility in the use of feedstocks.

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Consistently Outstanding Performance Consistently Outstanding Performance -

  • SGSI

SGSI

Operating Cost Index Annualized Maintenance Costs Maintenance Effort (Based on Headcounts)

  • Avg. Personnel Cost

Shell Personnel Index (Based on Headcounts) CEL Corrected Energy Loss Utilization Operational Availability

2003 2004

Shell Worldwide Annual Benchmarking

Peer group comparisions 1st Tercile 2nd Tercile 3rd Tercile Centre: Less opportunities Outside: More opportunities

  • Thaioil performs very strongly when benchmarked against the global peers.
  • The company ranks in the first tercile for six out of the eight benchmarks, evidence of its highly efficient operations.
  • High maintenance effort and Personal Index are offset by low labor costs.
  • Performance in 2004 generally improved when compared to 2003.

28

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36

TPX Expansion

  • Catalyst change in Feb’05 increased

PX yield from 82% to 91% and capacity level from 289 Kt/y to 348 Kt/y.

  • BOI extended income tax holiday to

cover PX capacity expansion to 348 Kt/y and MX production by TPX.

  • TPX’s loss carried forward of Bt 2,267

mn to be used as tax shield after 2009.

  • Thaioil sold MX and PU to TPX in

Apr’05 at Bt 1,070 mn.

  • Under TPX expansion plan, PU will be

modified to a Tatoray Unit whose duty is to convert C9+ into MX.

  • Recycling of by-product (C9+) will

result in lower feedstock cost for TPX.

MX MX

1.7 mn T/y Platformate

CCR CCR

MX 295 Kt/y

MX Exp 149 Kt/y

PX PX

PX 408 Kt/y

PU

Tatoray

PU

Tatoray

MX 221 Kt/y

By-products Lt Platformate C9+ C9+

Fuel Oil pool (6,000 T/d) 6,300 T/d (4,500 T/d) 5,200 T/d Gasoline pool Gasoline pool

ED* ED*

Benzene 160 Kt/y Toluene 136 Kt/y

Toluene

By-products Total aromatics 853 Kt/y By-products *ED: Extractive Distillation Naphtha

MX MX

Platformate

PX PX

MX 380 Kt/y

PX 348 Kt/y (289 Kt/y)

CCR CCR

C9+ MX Export 70,000 By-Products Lt Platformate

Existing Future

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Cash Flow : January - December 2005

(8,542)

Change in assets & liabilities

28,946

Net income & non-cash adj.

20,404 Operating Cash Flow

  • Bt. mn

(4,377)

CAPEX (PP&E)

670

Other investment

(3,707) CAPEX & Investment

+

(3,799)

Dividend payment

25,597

Refinancing (Loan & Bond)

(2,112)

Interest

(31,799)

Repayment

(12,113) Financing

Free Cash Flow 16,679

+

Beginning Cash

6,667

Net Increase in Cash

4,584

Ending Cash

11,251*

+ =

*Used for Thaioil’s loan prepayment of US$ 100 mn. in Q1/06

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Updated CAPEX Requirements

US$ Mn 2005 2006F 2007F Total In 2005-07 CDU-3 Debottlenecking 1) 35 120 63 218 Mercury Removal Units 1 5 6 SBM Expansion 2 100 48 150 Maintenance Projects 22 17 16 55 TPX (Expansion) 10 50 55 115 TLB (Synergy Project) 5 5 10 Power Projects 2) 6 27 10 43 Thaioil Marine 8 8 Total 76 324 205 6053)

Remark: 1) Increase due to the scope expansion to meet high oil demand and feedstock to TLB/TPX

2) Investing in SPP power generation capacity of 38 MW to support CDU-3 and TPX expansion 3) Excluding Ethanol project and new IPP bidding

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Progress of Investment Projects Progress of Investment Projects

Size : + 50 kbd (CDU Capacity) Cost : US$ 218 mn. (US$ 4,360 / bbl) IRR : ~ 28% based on US$ 4.5/bbl GRM EPC Contractor : ABB PMC Contractor : Foster Wheeler Expected C.O.D. : Mid 07 Benefits :

To meet domestic demand and high return on

investment

CDU-3 De-bottlenecking

Size : 38 MW Cost : US$ 43 mn. IRR : ~ 15% EPC Contractor : CTCI PMC Contractor : Foster Wheeler Expected C.O.D. : Mid 07 Benefits :

To fulfill additional electricity requirement, arising

from the expansion projects of TOP and subsidiaries

Gas Turbine Generator Project

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40

Progress of Investment Projects Progress of Investment Projects

Size : +433 KTA Aromatics (additional)

+PX 60 KTA +MX 77 KTA +BZ 160 KTA +Tol 136 KTA

Budget : US$ 115 mn. IRR : ~ 15% EPC Contractor : Bechtel PMC Contractor : Foster Wheeler Expected C.O.D. : Mid 07 Benefits :

Margin based on aromatics (BTX) over ULG 95 Able to supply gasoline products with low

Benzene content, meeting Euro IV spec. Size : 52” diameter * 14.5 km long pipeline (to receive crude fr. VLCC @ 2 million barrels) Cost : US$ 150 mn. IRR : ~ 16% EPC Contractor : SAIPEM PMC Contractor : Bechtel Expected C.O.D. : Mid 07 Benefits :

Freight saving ~ US$ 0.30/bbl of crude

imported from Middle East.

Single Buoy Mooring Project (SBM) TPX Expansion Project

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41

Investment Project under study Investment Project under study -

  • Opportunity for New IPP Bidding

Opportunity for New IPP Bidding

‘000 MW

Thailand Electricity Power Generating Capacity

MWh 50 2013 2014 2015

A v g . g e n e r a t i n g g r

  • w

t h r a t e = 6 . 7 % p . a .

45 250 40 200 35 30 150 25 20 100 15 10 50 5 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EGAT. Private EGCO+RATCH Import New Private Supply

New Power Capacity Allocation

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

'000 MW

  • Invitation to bid for new IPP project is postponed to 2007 due to

trimmed demand from high oil prices which force the government to adjust the demand projection and structure of fuel sources.

  • TOP is in advantageous position given infrastructure available

for additional 2x700MW power plants:

  • Land of 100 Rais (40 acres)
  • 28” natural gas / raw water pipeline
  • 230 KV transmission line and available diesel oil storage

facilities for back up

Private Players EGAT

4 3 3 4 4 Total #

  • f blocks
  • TOP is expected to have an opportunity in bidding

for the new IPP concessions from 2011-2015.

18*700 MW new plants

Source: EGAT’s PDP (August 2004) and EGAT’s Prospectus

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42

THANK YOU

Any further questions, please contact Investor Relations Dept. Tel: (662) 299-0124 Fax: (662) 617-8295 Email: ir@thaioil.co.th Website: www.thaioil.co.th