Th The Gr e Grea eat t In Indi dian n El Elec ectric - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Th The Gr e Grea eat t In Indi dian n El Elec ectric tricity ity Tra rans nsitio ition Ajay ay Mat athur hur Inaug ugural ural Prof f O D Thapar ar Endowe wed Lect ctur ure, e, IIT IIT-Ro Roorkee orkee, , 22 nd nd
, 22nd
nd April
il 2019
India’s Electricity Generation Capacity and Consumption Has Grown by A Factor 240-255 Since Independence
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI, based on CEA, 2017 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1947 2017 GWh
Level and Structure of Electricity Consumption, 1947 - 2017
Residential Services Industry Transport Agriculture 100000 200000 300000 400000 1947 2017 MW
Structure of Installed Capacity, 1947 versus 2017
Hydro Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear RES
capita electricity generation of just 17 kWh and only 3061 villages had electricity connections.
Total electricity consumption was only 4182 GWh, and was dominated by industry and traction (71% and 7% respectively).
factor of 240 to 326 GW and consumption by a factor of 255, to 1066 TWh.
diversified (increase in coal and RES, decrease in hydro share), as had the structure of consumption (increase in the share of residential, services and agriculture)
Factor 255 Factor 240
2
India has achieved almost 100% Electricity Access: Under the Right Conditions This Can Be A Game Changer for Rural Productivity
Slide No. ( 3 of 7)
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI based on data from IEA, 2018, Saubhagya Dashboard, and WB, 2019
terms of increasing the access to electricity
achieved, and 100% household is said to have been completed (see Saubhagya dashboard).
for rural productivity, but this also depends on the reliability of supply (see chart)
reliability and eventually cost recovery, there may not be a virtuous circle between access-> reliability -> productivity -> cost recovery.
has led to deteriorations in quality, as cost recovery has not improved (WB, 2019)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2000 2005 2010 2017
India, % of Population With Access to Electricity
3
With the Recent Increase in Capacity, A Situation of Energy Deficit Has Transformed to Surplus
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI, based on CEA & MoP data
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 %
Energy Deficit, %
5 10 15 20 25 %
Peak Deficit, %
10-15 years, combined with the slowdown in demand growth since 2012 has shifted a structural situation
deficit/surplus.
in the period 1984-2009, and has now fallen to 0.8%
the same period, and has fallen to 0.6%
logistical issues, rather than absolute deficiencies in generation capacities.
4
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
India’s Huge Synchronous Grid Is A Major Achievement and Asset
the world.
transfer between regions and states (see figure). Inter-regional trade intensity is about 11%. This is the same as Germany’s electricity trade intensity (12% of gross generation)
government owned Interstate Transmission System.
have to increase between states. Source: WB, 2018
5
Elect lectricit ity con
ill nee eed to
le to
t goo
lity of
life
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
supply of at least 4,000 kWh per capita to achieve HDI of 0.9
required greater electricity supply to achieve this goal; countries which developed later were able to use more energy efficient infrastructure
with annual electricity supply of less than 3,000 kWh per capita
Source: TERI based on CEA data 7
Elect lectricit ity dem emand gr growth will ill be e les less th than exp xpected
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
2022
fully electric; and cars are 50% electric by 2030
programmes are considered
15%
Source: TERI based on CEA data 8
Cu Current and under er-construction capacit ity is is adeq equate to
eet dem emand till till 2025-26 26
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
generation capacity based on coal and other sources will:
2022 & % in 78% in 2026
solar capacity will reach 175 GW in 2022, and 470 GW in 2027
Source: TERI based on CEA data 9
The Services and Residential Sectors Have Been Increasing Their Share of Total Demand
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
and residential sectors have experienced the fastest demand growth
total demand by about 6 percentage points over this period.
GDP (elasticity >1), while the services sector grew slightly lower than service sector VA (elasticity <1).
than agricultural GVA (elasticity substantially >1), but this may be due to losses being classified as agricultural consumption.
Source: TERI based on CEA data 10
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: GIZ, 2017
A Continued Transition on the Demand Side: This May Raise the Variability
6% 7% 10% 26% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Total demand Commercial and residential sectors Air conditioning Electric vehicles % growth yoy
Demand Growth, yoy, Total Demand and Different Sectors & End-Uses, 2017-2030
be around 2040 TWh, ex captive power.
change, with the residential & commercial sectors rising from ca. 43% of grid based demand to ca. 50%.
demand will come just from air conditioning. About 2% may come from EVs.
the load profile, which may in turn create challenges for the grid integration of RE (increased night-time load from EVs)
11 6% 7% 10% 26% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Total demand Commercial and residential sectors Air conditioning Electric vehicles % growth yoy
Demand Growth, yoy, Total Demand and Different Sectors & End-Uses, 2017-2030
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
India is a hot and populous country – the potential air conditioning demand is high
Davis and Gertler, PNAS, 2015
12
Delhi (NCT) Average Summer Demand Profile Seems to Have Shifted to a Two Peak Structure, This May be Indicative of Commercial/Residential Air Conditioning Load
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI based on data from CEA, MoP and POSOCO
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Delhi (NCT) Average Summer Load
2008 2017
residential and commercial sectors.
the future “urbanised” load of India, with some regional/climatic differences.
average summer load has become much more variable across the day.
after midday.
peak, after 21hrs.
13
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
The peak demand - in summer and monsoon - is now longer and late at night
conditioning use in office and retail sectors
reflecting the growing significance of home air conditioning
14
The Current Capacity Mix is Dominated by Coal
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI, based on CEA data
including grid and large-scale captive capacity.
was 350 GW, of which:
coal sector was 39%, it was 95% in the RES sector
197 25 1 7 45 74 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Grid Captive GW
India Installed Capacities, Grid and Captive, GW
Coal & Lignite Gas Diesel Nuclear Hydro RES 16
There Has Been a Boom in Investment in Coal-Fired Capacity, Followed by a Recent Switch to Wind and Solar
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained ) Source: TERI, based on GlobalData data
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Billion USD2015/year Solar Investment Wind Investment Coal Investment
investment pattern in recent years.
new coal-fired capacity additions, led largely by the private sector.
generation introduced by the Electricity Act (2003), as well as the general boom in productive investment that occurred 2005-
period are currently stressed/stranded assets
investment, and a rise in the monetary value
decline in capital costs for wind and solar projects (increasing MW, for decreasing Rs)
17
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI modelling
The Relative Costs of Generation Technology Have Transformed and Will Continue to Transform
around 1/3 of the variable costs (short-run marginal costs) of the existing coal fleet (variable cost >2.75 R/kWh)
PV to be between 1.9 – 2.3 R/kWh (lower value depends on tracking technology increasing CUF)
between 2.3-2.6 R/kWh (band represents different CUF depending on wind resource, hub height, etc).
grow:
notably by real transport cost increases.
and lower pollution
cost escalation, lower learning rates for wind & solar) don’t fundamentally change this picture
5.0 2.8 2.9 7.0 2.6 2.3 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 Non-Pithead Coal Onshore Wind Ground Mounted Solar PV R/kWh
Levelized Costs of Electricity
2018 2030 18
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI modelling
The Declining Cost of Storage Is a Game Changer for Renewables Integration
ion battery prices has been 21% per year, leading to a 6.6 fold drop in costs in eight years.
projected to decline by about 50% between now and 2030, and could be higher in India if cheaper EPC holds for storage as it has for solar PV.
decline by almost 70% by 2030
projected to be 6.3 Rs/kWh.
13.6 29.0 6.3 11.9 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Solar Plus Three Hours Storage Li-ion Stationary Storage R/kWh
Levelized Costs of Storage
2018 2030 19
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI analysis, based on IEA & WB data
India’s Policy Push on Renewables Is One of the Most Ambitious in the World and Unprecedented for a Country of India’s Low Income Per Capita
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Share of wind and solar GDP/capita, kUSD2015 PPP
India’s RE Growth is Projected to be Among the Fastest Among the G20 Economies … And the Fastest Ever For A Country of India’s GDP/Capita
Note: the size of the bubble represents the total size of the economy in PPP, whereas the horizontal axis represents the GDP/capita at PPP. All G20 countries are represented for 2017, with Great Britain represented for 2010 and 2017, and India 2017 and projected level for 2022, if the 175 GW target is met.
21
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI modelling
By 2030, Solar Plus Storage Will be Competitive With Fossil Fuels in A Number of Applications
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 Non-Pit Head Super Critical Coal Combined Cycle Natural Gas Open Cycle Natural Gas Solar Plus Three Hours Storage R/kWh
Cost of Evening Peaking Services, 2030
fossil fuels in a number of applications:
hours of night-time production) the levelized cost of solar plus storage is 6.34 R/kWh.
R/kWh (calculated at 30% capacity factor consistent with peaker plants)
coal it is 8.26 R/kWh (calculated at 50% capacity factor consistent with load-following plant)
22
Slide No. ( 24 of 16)
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI modelling
By Itself, Storage Is Not Cheap Enough to Provide Bulk Energy Provision at Night, and Hence a Portfolio of Flexibility Options Is Required
expensive to provide bulk energy at for the full duration of the night.
system services:
strengthening
24
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
India’s Power Markets Currently Provide Relatively Little Temporal Price Signals For Flexible Generation
currently provide relatively weak temporal signals to incentivize flexible operation
difference is only about 1 R/kWh, although higher occurrences are seen
distortions
shedding
would provide inadequate price signals for e.g. storage
Source: TERI based on IEX data
2 4 6 8 10 12 10 20 R/KWh Hour of the Day
Hourly Price Structure in the Wholesale Market, 2017
All Occurances Through The Year Average Hourly Occurance
25
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
India’s Power Markets Are Dominated By Long-Term Bilateral Contracts, With Power Markets Being Relatively Small, Illiquid and Immature
markets with the 2003 Electricity Act.
under long-term bilateral contracts between generators and DISCOMS. These contracts are structured around a 2 part tariff, consisting of availability based fixed costs, and generation based variable costs.
contracts, with little transparency regarding price discovery
balancing are still done on the basis of regulatory, not market mechanisms
transition to full market based supply system
Source: GIZ, 2017
26
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
The Technical Challenge of Grid Integration of Renewables Will be The Constraining Factor in Renewables Growth, Not The Cost of Renewable kWhs
factor for RE growth.
particular challenges:
insufficient, compared to stagnant demand growth and adequate dispatchable capacities in developed markets
in output (see top chart).
bottom chart, green).
regulatory architecture, which does not yet create incentives for sufficient flexible investment and operation
expansion of traditional supply-side balancing options, namely gas and hydro Source: TERI and CPI analysis & modelling
27
Slide No. ( 28 of 16)
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: CPI and TERI modelling
A Portfolio of Flexibility Options Across Supply, Demand and Storage Will be Required
dispatchable plants
profile; demand response to activate load as a flexibility option on the short-term
excessively on one flexibility option
28
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
The Technical Challenge of Grid Integration of Renewables Will be The Constraining Factor in Renewables Growth, Not The Cost of Renewable kWhs
factor for RE growth.
particular challenges:
insufficient, compared to stagnant demand growth and adequate dispatchable capacities in developed markets
in output (see top chart).
bottom chart, green).
regulatory architecture, which does not yet create incentives for sufficient flexible investment and operation
expansion of traditional supply-side balancing options, namely gas and hydro Source: TERI and CPI analysis & modelling
29
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Demand Reduction Events at TPDDL resulted in 20% Savings in an hour
pilot with 161 industrial and commercial consumers, who draw about 30 MW demand
financial incentive was provided
by 15 to 25% one hour after DR event
commercial and industrial tariff for ADR events with more than 2 hour intimation
less than 2-hour intimation Source: TPDDL Presentation
30
Event Start Event End
System Load Relief
7.2 MVA
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
TPDDL Introduces 10 MW Battery Storage Facility
Mitsubishi, set up a 10-MW battery storage facility in Rohini, West Delhi, in January 2019
when frequency starts falling
manage frequency within narrow band
summer, would show response at high peak load times Source: AES Communication
31
Slide No. ( 33 of 16)
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: CPI and TERI modelling
India Has a Large Potential for Cheap Demand Response, But Tapping It Will be A Challenge
is low-to-negative cost flexibility option.
uncertainties exist (40-180 GW)
which it can currently be tapped, due to the lack of incentives & markets (e.g. time of use pricing), and lack of technical interfaces
largest source of demand flexibility and tapping it could bring net benefits in terms of farmer productivity & water conservation
33
Estimated Potential for Demand Side Management and Demand Response
Slide No. ( 34 of 16)
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: CPI and TERI modelling
Thermal Flexibility Will Be Required At Scale, A Preparing Coal Plant to Play This Role May Reduce the Risks of Financial Stress
current levels.
with low wind and hydro output (see left panel).
required to balance daily output of solar (see right panel)
and demand response could substantially reduce the daily cycling requirements.
role; providing adequate remuneration for this system service would reduce the risk of financial stress/stranding
34
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
If A Cost-Effective Portfolio of Flexibility Options is Deployed, A High Renewables Scenario Can Be Competitive on a System Cost Basis
Source: TERI analysis and modelling
5.4 5.5 5.5 0.2 0.3 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 2022 2027 2030 R/kWh
CTS - Moderate Renewables Scenario
Energy Cost Grid Integration Cost 5.5 5.5 5.4 0.2 0.4 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 2022 2027 2030 R/kWh
HRES - High Renewables Scenario
Energy Cost Grid Integration Cost
far the cheapest source of incremental kWh, their non-dispatchability imposes additional costs on the system.
penetration, but can be mitigated by actions to flexibilize the grid as well as technology innovation (e.g. storage)
system can be comparable in system costs to a moderate RE system by 2030, provided that a cost-effective portfolio of
“dispatchable renewables” = cost of coal based generation)
35
Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )
Source: TERI modelling
By 2030, In A High Renewables Scenario, The Share of Renewables Could be 32%, and the Share of Zero Carbon Generation 45%
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2019 2022 2027 2030 gCO2/kWh Generation Share
CTS, Generation Shares and Grid Emissions Factor
Renewables, ex large hydro Hydro Nuclear Gas & Diesel Coal Grid Emissions Factor (Right Axis)
would require 420 GW of renewables by 2030,
wind, the rest being biomass and small hydro
reaching 555 gCO2/kWh, a level comparable with Japan today.
substantial at 15% per year across the period. In linear terms, this equates to 27 GW per year, faster than has been achieved at any time up to now
grow the share of renewables, necessitating very rapid capacity expansions
36