Th The Gr e Grea eat t In Indi dian n El Elec ectric - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Th The Gr e Grea eat t In Indi dian n El Elec ectric tricity ity Tra rans nsitio ition Ajay ay Mat athur hur Inaug ugural ural Prof f O D Thapar ar Endowe wed Lect ctur ure, e, IIT IIT-Ro Roorkee orkee, , 22 nd nd April il 2019

India’s Electricity Generation Capacity and Consumption Has Grown by A Factor 240-255 Since Independence • At independence in 1947, India had a per Level and Structure of Electricity Consumption, capita electricity generation of just 17 kWh 1947 - 2017 and only 3061 villages had electricity 1200000 connections. 1000000 800000 Factor 255 GWh • The level of installed capacity in 1947 was 600000 400000 only 1.36 GW, dominated by hydro and coal. 200000 Total electricity consumption was only 4182 0 GWh, and was dominated by industry and 1947 2017 traction (71% and 7% respectively). Residential Services Industry Transport Agriculture • By 2017, generation capacity had grown by a Structure of Installed Capacity, 1947 versus factor of 240 to 326 GW and consumption 2017 by a factor of 255, to 1066 TWh. 400000 300000 • The structure of supply had substantially MW diversified (increase in coal and RES, 200000 Factor 240 decrease in hydro share), as had the 100000 structure of consumption (increase in the 0 share of residential, services and 1947 2017 agriculture) Hydro Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear RES 2 Source: TERI, based on CEA, 2017 Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

India has achieved almost 100% Electricity Access: Under the Right Conditions This Can Be A Game Changer for Rural Productivity • India has been one of the global success stories in India, % of Population With Access to Electricity terms of increasing the access to electricity 100% 80% • As of 2018, 100% village electrification had been 60% achieved, and 100% household is said to have been completed (see Saubhagya dashboard). 40% 20% • Access to electricity is potentially a game changer 0% for rural productivity, but this also depends on the 2000 2005 2010 2017 reliability of supply (see chart) • However, unless access is combined with reliability and eventually cost recovery, there may not be a virtuous circle between access-> reliability -> productivity -> cost recovery. • Previous examples show that increasing access has led to deteriorations in quality, as cost recovery has not improved (WB, 2019) Source: TERI based on data from IEA, 2018, 3 Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained ) Slide No. ( 3 of 7) Saubhagya Dashboard, and WB, 2019

With the Recent Increase in Capacity, A Situation of Energy Deficit Has Transformed to Surplus Energy Deficit, % • The rapid capacity addition of the last 14 10-15 years, combined with the 12 10 slowdown in demand growth since 8 2012 has shifted a structural situation % 6 of deficit, to one of small 4 deficit/surplus. 2 0 • The peak deficit averaged almost 15% in the period 1984-2009, and has now fallen to 0.8% Peak Deficit, % 25 • The energy deficit averaged 8.4% in 20 the same period, and has fallen to 15 0.6% % 10 • Whatever deficits remain are due to 5 logistical issues, rather than absolute 0 deficiencies in generation capacities. 4 Source: TERI, based on CEA & MoP data Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

India’s Huge Synchronous Grid Is A Major Achievement and Asset • India is the largest synchronous grid in the world. • There is a fairly high degree of power transfer between regions and states (see figure). Inter-regional trade intensity is about 11%. This is the same as Germany’s electricity trade intensity (12% of gross generation) • This is facilitated by the central government owned Interstate Transmission System. • Integration and power transfer will have to increase between states. Source: WB, 2018 5 Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

India’s electricity supply is now becoming adequate and universal A 1% increase in GDP now requires 0.8% increase in electricity demand

Elect lectricit ity con onsumption will ill nee eed to o quadruple le to o support t goo ood qualit lity of of lif life • Countries have required annual supply of at least 4,000 kWh per capita to achieve HDI of 0.9 • Countries which developed earlier required greater electricity supply to achieve this goal; countries which developed later were able to use more energy efficient infrastructure • India could well achieve a high HDI with annual electricity supply of less than 3,000 kWh per capita 7 Source: TERI based on CEA data Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

Elect lectricit ity dem emand gr growth will ill be e les less th than exp xpected TERI Scenario is a high-end scenario: • • All households are connected by 2022 • Past growth trends are maintained • New 2-W, 3-W, taxis and buses are fully electric; and cars are 50% electric by 2030 • Only current end-use efficiency programmes are considered • T&D loss reduction flattens out at 15% 8 Source: TERI based on CEA data Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

Cu Current and under er-construction capacit ity is is adeq equate to o mee eet dem emand till till 2025-26 26 • Current and under-construction generation capacity based on coal and other sources will: • reach ~350 GW by 2022 • PLF of coal capacity will be 55% in 2022 & % in 78% in 2026 • In High-Renewables scenario, wind & solar capacity will reach 175 GW in 2022, and 470 GW in 2027 9 Source: TERI based on CEA data Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

The Services and Residential Sectors Have Been Increasing Their Share of Total Demand • In the period 2001 to 2015, the services and residential sectors have experienced the fastest demand growth • These sectors increased their share in total demand by about 6 percentage points over this period. • The residential sector grew faster than GDP (elasticity >1), while the services sector grew slightly lower than service sector VA (elasticity <1). • The agricultural sector grew much faster than agricultural GVA (elasticity substantially >1), but this may be due to losses being classified as agricultural consumption. 10 Source: TERI based on CEA data Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

A Continued Transition on the Demand Side: This May Raise the Variability of the Load Profile Demand Growth, yoy, Total Demand and Demand Growth, yoy, Total Demand and Different Sectors & End-Uses, 2017-2030 Different Sectors & End-Uses, 2017-2030 • By 2030, TERI projects grid based demand to 30% 30% be around 2040 TWh, ex captive power. 26% 26% • 25% The structure of demand will continue to 25% change, with the residential & commercial sectors rising from ca. 43% of grid based 20% 20% % growth yoy % growth yoy demand to ca. 50%. 15% 15% • By 2030, about 10% of total grid based 10% 10% demand will come just from air conditioning. 10% 10% About 2% may come from EVs. 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% • These shifts may induce significant changes in the load profile, which may in turn create 0% 0% challenges for the grid integration of RE Total Commercial Air Electric Total Commercial Air Electric (increased night-time load from EVs) demand and conditioning vehicles demand and conditioning vehicles residential residential sectors sectors Source: GIZ, 2017 11 Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

India is a hot and populous country – the potential air conditioning demand is high Davis and Gertler, PNAS, 2015 12 Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )

Delhi (NCT) Average Summer Demand Profile Seems to Have Shifted to a Two Peak Structure, This May be Indicative of Commercial/Residential Air Conditioning Load • Delhi (NCT) load is dominated by the Delhi (NCT) Average Summer Load residential and commercial sectors. 25000 • To this extent it may be indicative of the future “urbanised” load of India, 20000 with some regional/climatic differences. 15000 • In the period 2008 to 2017, the MW average summer load has become 10000 much more variable across the day. • And shifted to a two peak structure 5000 • “Commercial” load peak slightly after midday. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 • “Residential” night -time cooling 2008 2017 peak, after 21hrs. 13 Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained ) Source: TERI based on data from CEA, MoP and POSOCO

The peak demand - in summer and monsoon - is now longer and late at night • In 2008-09, the peak demand during summer and monsoon largely occurred at 7 and 8 PM, reflecting air conditioning use in office and retail sectors • In 2017-18, the peak demand occurred after 8 PM on 25% of the days in the summer and monsoon season, reflecting the growing significance of home air conditioning 14 Energy (Sector’s name i.e. Energy/Agriculture; colour should be maintained )