term unemployment recover? Marloes de Graaf-Zijl Joint work with: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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term unemployment recover? Marloes de Graaf-Zijl Joint work with: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 22, 2023 239 likes •373 views

How will Dutch long- term unemployment recover? Marloes de Graaf-Zijl Joint work with: Albert van der Horst Daniel van Vuuren CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis Long-term unemployment is a problem: Unhappiness

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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

How will Dutch long- term unemployment recover?

Marloes de Graaf-Zijl

Joint work with: Albert van der Horst Daniel van Vuuren

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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Long-term unemployment is a problem:

  • Unhappiness
  • Permanent income losses
  • Loss of skills and human capital
  • Lower tax incomes
  • Higher social security expenditures
  • Potentially lower economic growth due to discouragement
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Current heap of long-term unemployment: a cyclical or structural problem?

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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Not all labour institutions have sufficiently adapted to this higher participation rate:

  • 1. Unemployment benefits
  • 2. Employment protection
  • 3. Wage costs higher for older workers
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

  • 1. Unemployment benefits
  • Older workers have longer benefit rights
  • Many unemployed do not lower desired wages

with unemployment duration

  • WWZ shortens maximum benefit duration, but
  • lder still have longer rights
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

WWZ abolishes age based rights, but not tenure based rights

  • 2. Employment protection

Disincentive to change jobs due to tenure based rights Employability of

  • lder workers

Stuck in shrinking

  • ccupations
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

  • Dutch wage profiles increase with age
  • Collective labour agreements include extra

days off for older workers, fewer shift work, etc.

  • 3. Wage costs higher for older

workers

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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Conclusion

  • Good news: to a large extent long-term unemployment will recover

automatically

  • But structural reforms necessary in labour market for older workers
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CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Thank you!