Status of the Unemployment Trust Fund and Related Issues Commission - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Status of the Unemployment Trust Fund and Related Issues Commission - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 23, 2023 29 likes •260 views

Status of the Unemployment Trust Fund and Related Issues Commission on Unemployment Compensation Ellen Marie Hess, Commissioner December 9, 2015 Trust Fund DataStandard Forecast (Millions of Dollars) 2 2014 2015 January 1 Balance $186.9

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SLIDE 1

Commission on Unemployment Compensation

Ellen Marie Hess, Commissioner

Status of the Unemployment Trust Fund and Related Issues

December 9, 2015

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SLIDE 2

Trust Fund Data—Standard Forecast

(Millions of Dollars)

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2014 2015

January 1 Balance $186.9 $448.3 Tax Revenue $749.9 $671.3 Interest Revenue $9.4 $15.1 Benefits $498.4 $397.8 December 31 Balance $448.3 $736.9 Solvency Level (6/30) 40.3% 57.0%

December 31, 2014, balance includes $0.5 million from FUTA Credit Reduction paid to IRS.

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SLIDE 3

June 30 Trust Fund Balances and Solvency

$757 $291 ($104) ($80) $135 $335 $564 $825 $1,011 $1,122 $1,171 $1,182 $1,198 64% 24%

  • 8%
  • 6%

9% 24% 40% 57% 64% 70% 70% 67% 65%

  • $200

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3 Millions

Trust Fund Solvency shown as a percent (%)

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SLIDE 4

Average Total State Tax

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$97.40 $96.60 $127.60 $161.40 $177.60 $187.60 $187.40 $158.80 $145.40 $130.60 $115.40 $106.20 $110.00 $1.60 $6.40 $22.40 $37.60 $42.40 $30.40 $17.60 $11.20 $5.60 $2.40 $1.60 $4.80 $8.00

$16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00

$99 $103 $166 $215 $236 $234 $221 $186 $151 $133 $117 $111 $118 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 base tax pool tax fund builder tax Calendar Year

Cost per Employee

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SLIDE 5

Pool Taxes

$1.60 $6.40 $22.40 $37.60 $42.40 $30.40 $17.60 $11.20 $5.60 $2.40 $1.60 $4.80 $8.00

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5

Cost per Employee

Calendar Year

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SLIDE 6

Distribution of 2015 and 2016 Base Tax Rates (excluding 2015 0.20% fund builder tax)

Computed and Assigned Rates

6 Tax Rates Number of Employers Percent of Total Computed 2015* 2016** 2015* 2016** 0.10% 118,381 125,561 59.3% 60.4% 0.14%-0.90% 9,703 10,044 4.9% 5.5% 1.01%-1.95% 8,541 8,569 4.3% 4.1% 2.03%-2.90% 5,449 5,981 2.7% 2.9% 3.00%-3.91% 4,943 4,426 2.5% 2.1% 4.05%-4.95% 3,590 3,228 1.8% 1.6% 5.07%-5.94% 2,569 2,465 1.3% 1.2% 6.00%-6.15% 692 304 0.3% 0.1% 6.20% 14,594 12,521 7.3% 6.0% Assigned New, 2.50% 24,809 26,878 12.4% 12.9% Delinquent, 6.20% 639 640 0.3% 0.3% Foreign Contractor, 6.20% 222 260 0.1% 0.1% Other, 6.20% 5,480 7,135 2.7% 3.4% Total 199,612 208,012 100.0% 100.0% Taxable wage base is $8,000. *excluding 0.14% pool tax. **excluding 0.07% pool tax.

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SLIDE 7

Claims Filed

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Calendar Year Initial Claims 2010 380,830 2011 330,057 2012 301,211 2013 276,807 2014 224,882 2015 (Jan. – Oct.) 149,271* * Annual claims projected to be 184,000.

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SLIDE 8

Virginia’s Unemployment Rates 2013 - 2015 (year to date)

8 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2014 2015

(not ¡seasonally ¡adjusted) ¡

Percent ¡of ¡Labor ¡Force ¡

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SLIDE 9

UI Initial Claims 2013 - 2015 (year to date)

9 12,500 17,500 22,500 27,500 32,500 37,500 42,500 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 2014 2015

¨ Total initial claims

through October this year are down 18.4% because of fewer layoffs in construction and manufacturing.

¨ October 2013 increase

includes initial claims from partial federal government shutdown.

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SLIDE 10

UI Final Payments 2013 - 2015 (year to date)

10 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2013 2014 2015

¨

For the first ten months of 2015, final payments are down 23.5% from 2014 and 38.0% from 2013.

¨

The exhaustion rate in October was 41.2%, down from last October’s 44.6%.

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SLIDE 11

Exhaustion Rates 2013 - 2015 (year to date)

11 41.0% 42.0% 43.0% 44.0% 45.0% 46.0% 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2013 2014 2015 Exhaus3on ¡Rate ¡

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SLIDE 12

Fourth Circuit States

12 Trust Fund Balance (10/31/15) (Millions) Average Tax per Employee (year ending 12/31/14) Average Tax Rate (year ending 12/31/14) 2015 Taxable Wage Base 2015 Maximum Weekly Benefit 2015 Maximum Weekly Benefit Replacement Rate 2015 State Potential Duration (Weeks)

DC

$354 $251 2.79% $9,000 $359 24% 19 – 26

MD

$984 $233 2.74% $8,500 $430 43% 26

NC

$996 $477 2.20% $21,700 $350 41% 5 – 12

SC

$272 $340 2.43% $14,000 $326 42% 13 – 20

VA

$765 $210 2.62% $8,000 $378 39% 12 – 26

WV

$104 $362 3.02% $12,000 $424 55% 26

US Avg.

$396 2.95% $13,408 $431 45%

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SLIDE 13

Short-Time Compensation and Military Trailing Spouse Updates

¨ Short-Time Compensation (STC): U.S. Department of Labor has

written that Virginia’s STC law precludes Virginia from qualifying for the STC grant due to sunset provisions in 60.2-710(5) and 60.2-710(6).

¤ Since the January 1, 2015, implementation of the law, there have

been no participating employers.

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SLIDE 14

Short-Time Compensation and Military Trailing Spouse Updates—Impact of Military Trailing Spouse Benefits

¨ Military Trailing Spouse: For July 1 – October 31, 2015,

$282,072.60 in benefits were paid to 130 claimants.

¤ Benefits paid in FY 2015 were $658,597, which reduced the

balance by the same amount.

¤ Solvency was 0.1 percentage point lower. ¤ The 2016 base tax rates were not affected. ¤ The 2016 pool tax rate was not affected.

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SLIDE 15

Total Nonfarm Employment

Over-the-year Growth (seasonally adjusted data)

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  • ­‑6.0 ¡
  • ­‑5.0 ¡
  • ­‑4.0 ¡
  • ­‑3.0 ¡
  • ­‑2.0 ¡
  • ­‑1.0 ¡

0.0 ¡ 1.0 ¡ 2.0 ¡ 3.0 ¡ 4.0 ¡ Jan-­‑03 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑04 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑05 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑06 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑07 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑08 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑09 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑10 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑11 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑12 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑13 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑14 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Jan-­‑15 ¡ May ¡ September ¡ Percent ¡

Virginia ¡

  • U. ¡S. ¡ ¡

Source: VEC Current Employment Statistics and Bureau of Labor Statistics

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SLIDE 16

Virginia Nonfarm Employment by Industry 2004 and 2014

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706,300 195,600 371,400 496,400 677,600 193,200 71,300 643,300 231,600 177,900 9,500 3,774,000 650,900 179,400 320,100 385,000 578,500 189,000 98,300 646,400 298,700 230,900 10,300 3,587,400

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 Government Other services Leisure and hospitality Education and health services Professional and business services Financial activities Information Trade, transportation, and utilities Manufacturing Construction Mining and logging Total nonfarm 2004 2014

Source: VEC Current Employment Statistics

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SLIDE 17

Virginia Nonfarm Employment by Industry Employment Change 2004-2014

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55,400 (8.5%) 16,200 (9.0%) 51,300 (16.0%) 111,400 (28.9%) 99,100 (17.1%) 4,200 (2.2%)

  • 27,000

(-27.5%)

  • 3,100

(-0.5%)

  • 67,100

(-22.5%)

  • 53,000

(-23.0%)

  • 800

(-7.8%) 186,600 (5.2%)

  • 100,000
  • 50,000

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 Government Other services Leisure and hospitality Education and health services Professional and business services Financial activities Information Trade, transportation, and utilities Manufacturing Construction Mining and logging Total nonfarm

Source: VEC Current Employment Statistics

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SLIDE 18

Virginia Nonfarm Establishments 2004 and 2014

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Source: 2004 -2014 QCEW 201,875 1,983 24,401 6,015 44,267 3,728 18,895 39,334 16,319 15,593 22,817 3,629 234,145 1,929 19,891 5,849 41,738 3,678 19,791 50,370 38,141 18,487 23,623 4,038

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Total nonfarm Mining and logging Construction Manufacturing Trade, transportation, and utilities Information Financial activities Professional and business services Education and health services Leisure and hospitality Other services Public Administration (Government) Establishments 2004 Establishments 2014

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SLIDE 19

Nonfarm Employment by Metropolitan Area 2004 and 2014

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76,100 109,400 63,900 102,800 1,379,600 631,100 160,200 48,500 753,300 59,800 73,200 96,400 60,800 102,700 1,233,800 593,900 156,800 49,300 749,900 54,300 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford MSA Charlottesville MSA Harrisonburg MSA Lynchburg MSA Northern Virginia MSA Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Staunton MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA Winchester MSA 2004 2014

Source: VEC Current Employment Statistics

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SLIDE 20

Nonfarm Employment by Metropolitan Area Employment Change 2004-2014

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2,900 (4.0%) 13,000 (13.5%) 3,100 (5.1%) 100 (0.1%) 145,800 (11.8%) 37,200 (6.3%) 3,400 (2.2%)

  • 800

(-1.6%) 3,400 (0.5%) 5,500 (10.1%)

  • 20,000

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford MSA Charlottesville MSA Harrisonburg MSA Lynchburg MSA Northern Virginia MSA Richmond MSA Roanoke MSA Staunton MSA Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA Winchester MSA

Source: VEC Current Employment Statistics

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SLIDE 21

Labor Force Participation Rates

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SLIDE 22

2015 October Labor Force Participation Rates and Unemployment Rates (Fourth Circuit States)

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State ¡ Participation Rate ¡ Unemployment Rate ¡ District ¡of ¡Columbia ¡ 65.7 ¡ 6.7 ¡ Maryland ¡ 63.7 ¡ 5.2 ¡ North ¡Carolina ¡ 57.9 ¡ 5.5 ¡ South ¡Carolina ¡ 55.7 ¡ 5.8 ¡ Virginia ¡ 61.7 ¡ 4.1 ¡ West ¡Virginia ¡ 50.3 ¡ 5.6 ¡

(not ¡seasonally ¡adjusted) ¡

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SLIDE 23

U.S. Multiple Job Holders – November 2005 – 2015 (numbers in thousands)

November Multiple Job Holders (Total) Percent of Total Employed (Total) 2005 7,586 5.3 2006 7,863 5.4 2007 7,791 5.3 2008 7,539 5.2 2009 7,222 5.2 2010 6,816 4.9 2011 7,083 5.0 2012 7,235 5.0 2013 6,973 4.8 2014 7,549 5.1 2015 7,596 5.1

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(not ¡seasonally ¡adjusted) ¡

Source: BLS