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Nov 08, 2022 163 likes •353 views

Comments Poppy Ismalina Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta Introduction O Comments on Trade and Labour Market Adjustments by Susan Stone, Clarisse Legendre and Patricia Sourdin (OECD) O Six economies:

SLIDE 1

Comments

Poppy Ismalina Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta

SLIDE 2

Introduction

O Comments on “ Trade and Labour Market

Adjustments” by Susan Stone, Clarisse Legendre and Patricia Sourdin (OECD)

O Six economies: four OECD (Canada, Israel,

the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) and two non OECD (Brazil and South Africa)

O 2003 - 2008

SLIDE 3

The existing research

O Focus on Brazil and South Africa O All of them uses a partial equilibrium model

with traditional industry measures

O Trade reforms, efficiency and growth (Hay,

2001)

O Trade liberalization and the growing wage

inequality (Muendler, 2002)

SLIDE 4

The existing research

O Returns to educated workers and trade

liberalization (Blom, Holm-Nielsen and Verner, 2001), Green, Arbache and Dickerson (2001), Behrman, Birdsall, Szekely (2000)

O Trade liberalization and wage inequality between

skilled and unskilled workers (Pavcnik, et.al. 2002)

SLIDE 5

OECD Paper: Insightful Contributions

O A partial equilibrium approach O A harmonized cross-sectional, time series

dataset at a more detailed occupation- based level:

O Examine the impact across different types of

labour

O Observe a detrimental impact on medium

skilled workers vis a vis other skill levels, from all trade variables

SLIDE 6

Insightful Contributions

O Go beyond traditional industry measures O Identify the real drivers of labour market

adjustment to increasing economic ties among countries:

SLIDE 7

The substantial problems

O The labour market adjustment can be seen

as a combination of private and social cost.

O In developed countries like Canada, US, UK,

social costs occurred from the labour market adjustment is not as high as in developing countries like Brazil and South Africa.

O Developing countries have different

problems in terms of the impact of trade reforms on labour market adjustments

SLIDE 8

The substantial problems

OSusan’s paper examines social cost in a

qualitative sense.

O One model for six economies (four OECD

countries, two non OECD (Brazil and South Africa)

OA partial equilibrium model can’t bring us to

solve those mentioned substantial problems

SLIDE 9

The Brazilian Economy

O a major agricultural exporter O a country with one of the world's most

unequal income distributions

O e.g. large-scale commercial farmers vs

country’s small holders

SLIDE 10

South Africa’s Economy

O has experienced elevated growth in an

environment of rapid credit expansion, booming asset prices, strengthening public finances, and rising international reserves financed by large capital inflows.

O unemployment is one of the biggest

challenges to economic growth in the country.

SLIDE 11

Duality Economy (Formal and Informal)

O South Africa's economy has a marked

duality, with a sophisticated financial and industrial economy having grown alongside an underdeveloped informal economy.

O While SA's financial and industrial "first

economy" has an established infrastructure and economic base, its informal "second economy" presents both untapped potential and a developmental challenge for the country.

SLIDE 12

Proposed Ideas

O Provide more additional insights for

developing a policy framework.

O Analyze the impact of trade changes on

employment of the entire economy

O Consider more a connection among output,

labour (and therefore productivity), household, income, expenditure

O Use open economy approach

SLIDE 13

Proposed Ideas

O In addition, the acceptance of quantitative

models is most likely higher when the technique is fairly simple and more related to real data

O Policy advisors have made the experience

that complicated models may not be used if the are not well understood by the targetted users.

SLIDE 14

Proposed Methods

O A combination of a National Accounting

Matrix (NAM), a dynamic labour-oriented Social Accounting Matrix(SAM) and a labour account.

O The expansions of a NAM into sub-matrices

focusing on the role of people in the economy - the transition to a dynamic ic labour ur-orient

riented

ed SAM.

SLIDE 15

Proposed Methods

O The area covered by SAMs is the link

between two often distinct worlds of statistics: economic statistics and social statistics.

O Linking labour market and income

distribution issues to macro-economic policy

bjectives.

O Exports and imports are considered

endogenous factors.

SLIDE 16

Proposed Methods

O SAMs can be even more valuable if they are

combined with detailed labour accounts. Labour income and employment can be disaggregated by industry and type of labour, and also by type

f labour and household group.

O SAMs and the labour accounts are linked by a

set of tables that expand national accounts estimates of monetary and non-monetary labour market variables. SAMs and labour accounts partly overlap.

SLIDE 17

Proposed methods

O Combining NAMs, SAMs and labour

accounts may be useful to transform liberalizing countries like Brazil and South African into “the competitive and dynamic economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion environment.

SLIDE 18

Comments

Poppy Ismalina Faculty of Economics and Business Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta

Introduction

Adjustments” by Susan Stone, Clarisse Legendre and Patricia Sourdin (OECD)

the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) and two non OECD (Brazil and South Africa)

The existing research

with traditional industry measures

The existing research

OECD Paper: Insightful Contributions

dataset at a more detailed occupation- based level:

Insightful Contributions

adjustment to increasing economic ties among countries:

The substantial problems

as a combination of private and social cost.

social costs occurred from the labour market adjustment is not as high as in developing countries like Brazil and South Africa.

problems in terms of the impact of trade reforms on labour market adjustments

The substantial problems

qualitative sense.

countries, two non OECD (Brazil and South Africa)

solve those mentioned substantial problems

The Brazilian Economy

unequal income distributions

South Africa’s Economy

environment of rapid credit expansion, booming asset prices, strengthening public finances, and rising international reserves financed by large capital inflows.

challenges to economic growth in the country.

Duality Economy (Formal and Informal)

duality, with a sophisticated financial and industrial economy having grown alongside an underdeveloped informal economy.

economy" has an established infrastructure and economic base, its informal "second economy" presents both untapped potential and a developmental challenge for the country.

Proposed Ideas

developing a policy framework.

employment of the entire economy

labour (and therefore productivity), household, income, expenditure

Proposed Ideas

models is most likely higher when the technique is fairly simple and more related to real data

that complicated models may not be used if the are not well understood by the targetted users.

Proposed Methods

Matrix (NAM), a dynamic labour-oriented Social Accounting Matrix(SAM) and a labour account.

focusing on the role of people in the economy - the transition to a dynamic ic labour ur-orient

ed SAM.

Proposed Methods

between two often distinct worlds of statistics: economic statistics and social statistics.

Proposed Methods

Proposed methods

accounts may be useful to transform liberalizing countries like Brazil and South African into “the competitive and dynamic economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion environment.

Thank you