Technology Preparedness in achieving NDC targets Conserving Now, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Technology Preparedness in achieving NDC targets Conserving Now, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 09, 2024 370 likes •702 views

Technology Preparedness in achieving NDC targets Conserving Now, Preserving Future Indias Nationally Determined Contributions Reduce emissions intensity per unit GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030 Achieve 40% share of

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Technology Preparedness in achieving NDC targets

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

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SLIDE 2

India’s Nationally Determined Contributions

  • Reduce emissions intensity per unit GDP by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030
  • Achieve 40% share of fossil-free capacity in electricity mix
  • Create an additional carbon sink equivalent to 2.5-3 Gt of carbon dioxide

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

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Decoding NDC

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

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Decoding NDC

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Emission Intensity of Energy Supply Side Energy Intensity of GDP Demand Side

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SLIDE 5
  • Cooking -
  • Shift from Biomass to LPG, CNG and Electricity
  • Transport –
  • Shift from hydrocarbons to electricity and biofuels
  • Power -
  • Renewable Energy, More efficient thermal power plants

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

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Conserving Now, Preserving Future

0.21 0.18 0.22 0.28 0.10 0.16 0.22 0.28 0.34 0.40 2005 2007 2010 2020 2030 kgCO2e/kWh(Primary)

Historic IESS aggressive IESS max clean & RE NDC BAU EV/IC

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SLIDE 7

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

0.1851 0.1639 0.1579 0.153 0.1496 0.1469

0.04 0.08 0.12 0.15 0.19 0.23

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

kWh(Primary)/INR

CO2/GDP @-33% CO2/GDP @-35% Historic trend

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SLIDE 8

Objective to achieve NDC

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

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NDC Framework – Technology Needs

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

NDC Emission Intensity of Energy

  • Coal
  • Natural Gas
  • Solar
  • Wind
  • Hydro
  • Nuclear

SUPPLY Energy Intensity of GDP

  • Agriculture
  • Buildings
  • Industries
  • Transport

DEMAND

  • Energy Storage
  • Grid Infrastructure

Supporting Infrastructure

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SLIDE 10

Technology Needs – Supply Side

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Solar

Conserving Now, Preserving Future ~3.4 GW cell & ~8.4 GW module manufacturing No Manufacturing

  • Solar installed capacity - ~14 GW
  • PV modules mainly imported ( ~85% from China)
  • Domestic modules not cost competitive
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Solar PV – Indigenous Manufacturing

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

  • Option 1: Import wafer
  • Option 2 : Import cell
  • Option 3: Vertically integrated plant
  • Rs 10,000 Crore for 2 GW plant,

0.0 7.5 15.0 22.5 30.0 DCR SA VI Chinese

INR/Wp

Depreciation Interest Working c Interest Term Loa S&G, Overheads, O&M, Insurance Labour Energy Raw Material

Cost comparison for domestic vs Imported module

DCR - Wafer imported for cell SA - Cell imported for module VI - Only MG-Si imported DCR = Domestic Content Requirement ; SA= Stand-alone; VI= Vertically integrated Source: Feasibility analysis for c-Si PV manufacturing in India. CSTEP Policy Brief, 2017.

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Wind

Conserving Now, Preserving Future Installed Capacity: 32.7 GW Target by 2022 60 GW Target by 2030 (NDC) 100 GW Technology Needs Material Needs

Blades Mostly available;

  • Raw Material

Imported

  • Supply chain

constraints Tower Completely available

  • Available;

Gear Box Casting and Forging facilities for Higher capacities

  • High-grade Carburised

steel

  • Moderately available

Bearings Currently Imported

  • Generator

Available, but energy intensive;

  • Rare earth metals Nd

and Dy alloys for permanent magnets

  • Annealed copper

strips for conductors

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SLIDE 14

Technology Needs – Supporting Infrastructure

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Supporting Infrastructure (Energy Storage)

Conserving Now, Preserving Future Storage type Challenges Suitable Applications Status of Manufacturing (India) Pumped hydro High gestation period; high capex; environmental concerns Grid-scale balancing Available (Installed capacity = 4.8 GW) Flow battery Low power density; high cost Mini-grids Absent Advanced Pb acid Medium power density; toxicity issues with Pb Rooftop, Telecom, Mini-grids Mostly present , apart from separator in VRLA batteries Li ion High cost; no Li reserves in India Grid-scale intermittency, EV Absent in large scale

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LIB : Economics of Indigenization

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

  • 50 GWh LIB plant
  • Capital Cost: $ 4.6 Billion
  • Battery Cost: $ 148 per kWh
  • Present global cost: $ 230 per kWh

Source: CSTEP Policy Brief

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Supporting Infrastructure (Grid)

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Technology Sub components Application Technology availability and deployment availability in India Power Electronic Devices Converters for HVDC Convert RE power to grid-compatible power Form critical component of HVDC lines Commercially available FACTS and D-FACTS Enhance grid stability/controllability Technology not available but deployment available Transmission network Different types of conductors like ACSR, AAAC, Zebra, Moose, Bersimis and transformers To transmit power Commercially available Protection Relays, Switchgear To maintain grid stability Commercially available Power quality Harmonic filters, Dynamic voltage restorer (DVR), Unified power quality conditioner(UPQC) To maintain power quality in the grid Technology not available but deployment available Smart meters Monitoring demand/consumption Automate metering & billing Improve demand estimation Commercially available Reactive power management Capacitors & Reactors Maintain voltage limits of the grid Commercially available Monitoring Systems SCADA/EMS Steady state view of the power System Commercially available WAMS /Phasor Measurement Units Dynamic real time measurements and visualization of power system Technology not available but deployment available

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Technology Needs – Demand Side

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Industry

  • Cement & Steel : India compares with the best
  • Recyclability and Reusability
  • Solar based process heating
  • Waste Heat Recovery Systems

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Source: GNR, WBCSD 2014

3066 3513

975 1,950 2,925 3,900 4,875 India USA Germany EU28 Brazil China + Korea + Japan WORLD

SEC (MJ/t clinker) SEC (MJ/t clinker)

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Buildings ( AC and HVAC)

  • Space cooling demand - ~10% in 2030
  • Improve SEER of AC in India
  • Compressor Efficiency
  • Variable Speed Drives in compressor
  • Heat exchanger efficiency
  • Shift to Low GWP Refrigerants
  • Vapour absorption refrigeration systems

Conserving Now, Preserving Future ODP (tR 11/t) GWP (tCO2/t) Market Share (%) R-22 0.055 1810 90% R-410A 2088 8.5% R-32 677 1% R-290 3.3 0.5%

Source: LBNL and CSTEP

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Transport

  • Electric Vehicles
  • Battery is imported!
  • Need to consider indigenous manufacturing
  • Biofuels
  • Next generation ethanol Technologies

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Source: GGGI & CSTEP “Electric Buses in India: Technology, Policy and Benefits”

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Thank You

Conserving Now, Preserving Future ORGANIZATION LOGO

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Back Up Stuff

Conserving Now, Preserving Future ORGANIZATION LOGO

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Energy Supply 2030

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Commercial Biomass 4% Non- commercial Biomass 2% Coal 56% Nuclear 5% Solar 2% Wind 1% Hydro 2% Natural Gas 8% Oil 20%

Total Primary Energy Supply 13195 TWh

Biomass 3% Coal 51% Diesel 2% Gas 3% Hydro 10% Nuclear 4% Solar 15% Wind 12%

Electricity Generation Capacity: 795 GW

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Nuclear

  • Important source of clean baseload power
  • Current Capacity ~ 7,000 MW
  • But, possibility to increase to 30,000 MW
  • Technology Requirement

Indigenous pressurized heavy water reactors Imported Light Water reactors

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

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Coal

  • Shift to Super-critical and Ultra

Super Critical boilers

  • Coal Beneficiation

Improve Station Heat Rate Improvements in Steam Cycle; Turbine Efficiency

  • Installation of Pollution Control

Technologies

Scrubbers, ESP & SCR

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Subcritical, 0.7662 Supercritical, 0.233 Ultra supercritical, 0.0007

Total Capacity (2016) 188GW

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Supporting Infrastructure (Grid)

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Intervention Status Market Stage Roof top solar PV

  • Installed/target ~ 0.8/40 GWp (target by 2022)

Mature Electric Vehicles

  • Target ~ 6 – 7 million vehicle sales by 2020
  • Aims to sell only electric vehicles by 2030

Emerging Electricity based cooking

  • 40% of population 

depends on solid bio mass for fuel

  • 50% of LPG needs imported
  • MoP plans to reduce oil imports by 10% from 2014 -

15 levels by 2022 Nascent

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Solar PV – Emerging Technologies

Conserving Now, Preserving Future Process Ingot Wafer Cell Technology

Diamond Wire Saw PERC Gas to Wafer Shingling Bifacial

Disruptive Potential

High Medium High Medium High

Maturity Level

Medium Infancy Infancy

Source: SERIIUS, CSTEP

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Agriculture

  • Technology – not a bottleneck
  • Precision FARMING for optimising water use
  • Use of Artificial Intelligence
  • Drip Irrigation

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Scenario 2030

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Energy Demand 2030

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Residential 15% Industry 46% Transport 22% Agriculture 6% Commercial 11%

Final Energy Demand – 8296 TWh

Source: QoL for All (CSTEP) and IESS 2047

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Lighting and Cooking

  • Technology is not a

bottleneck

  • Need enabling POLICY

framework

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

8% 50% 25% 8% 9% 35% 10% 55% 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Rural Urban Penetration Levels

Cooking Fuel Share - 2030

Source: QoL for All (CSTEP) and IESS 2047

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LIB plants Worldwide

Conserving Now, Preserving Future

Manufacturers Capacity (GWh) LG Chem 1.2 Loitech 1.5 Nissan AESC 5 BYD 6 Tesla (Planned) 50 India (CSTEP Study) 50

75 150 225 300 375 LG Chem Loitech Nissan AESC BYD Tesla (Planned) CSTEP Study

$ Milloin per Gwh