Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
technology options for emission mitigation in indian
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 09, 2022 533 likes •850 views

Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and Transport Sectors Manmohan Kapshe, Satish Yawale Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India Aashish Deshpande National Institute of Technical Teachers'

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Technology Options for Emission Mitigation in Indian Residential and Transport Sectors

Manmohan Kapshe, Satish Yawale

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Aashish Deshpande

National Institute of Technical Teachers' Training and Research, Bhopal, India

21th AIM International Workshop, NIES, Tsukuba Japan

13-14 November 2015

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Presentation Sequence

Background Residential and Transport Sectors Modelling the Select Sectors Scenario Definitions Results and Findings

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Mega UAs/Cities

  • Three megacities in India as per Census 2011

with 10 million or more population

  • These are:
  • Greater Mumbai UA

18.4 million

  • Delhi UA

16.3 million

  • Kolkata UA

14.1 million

53 Million Plus UAs/Cities in India with population of one million or more. In Census 2001 the number was 35.

Million Plus UAs/Cities India: 2011

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Age/Gender Profile

Popul

  • pulat

ation P

  • n Proj
  • jec

ection f

  • n for
  • r 2030

2030 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 0- 0-4 5- 5-9 10- 10-14 14 15- 15-19 19 20- 20-24 24 25- 25-29 29 30- 30-34 34 35- 35-39 39 40- 40-44 44 45- 45-49 49 50- 50-54 54 55- 55-59 59 60- 60-64 64 65- 65-69 69 70- 70-74 74 75- 75-79 79 80- 80-84 84 85- 85-89 89 90- 90-95 95 95- 95-99 99 100+ 100+ Age gr ge group

  • up

Popul

  • pulat

ation (

  • n (million)
  • n)

Fem emal ale e Mal ale e Popul

  • pulat

ation P

  • n Proj
  • jec

ection f

  • n for
  • r 2010

2010 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 0- 0-4 5- 5-9 10- 10-14 14 15- 15-19 19 20- 20-24 24 25- 25-29 29 30- 30-34 34 35- 35-39 39 40- 40-44 44 45- 45-49 49 50- 50-54 54 55- 55-59 59 60- 60-64 64 65- 65-69 69 70- 70-74 74 75- 75-79 79 80- 80-84 84 85- 85-89 89 90- 90-95 95 95- 95-99 99 100+ 100+ Age gr ge group

  • up

Popul

  • pulat

ation (

  • n (million)
  • n)

Fem emal ale e Mal ale e Popul

  • pulat

ation P

  • n Proj
  • jec

ection f

  • n for
  • r 2050

2050 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 70 70 0- 0-4 5- 5-9 10- 10-14 14 15- 15-19 19 20- 20-24 24 25- 25-29 29 30- 30-34 34 35- 35-39 39 40- 40-44 44 45- 45-49 49 50- 50-54 54 55- 55-59 59 60- 60-64 64 65- 65-69 69 70- 70-74 74 75- 75-79 79 80- 80-84 84 85- 85-89 89 90- 90-95 95 95- 95-99 99 100+ 100+ Age gr ge group

  • up

Popul

  • pulat

ation (

  • n (million)
  • n)

Fem emal ale e Mal ale e Popul

  • pulat

ation i

  • n in 1970

n 1970 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 0- 0-4 5- 5-9 10- 10-14 14 15- 15-19 19 20- 20-24 24 25- 25-29 29 30- 30-34 34 35- 35-39 39 40- 40-44 44 45- 45-49 49 50- 50-54 54 55- 55-59 59 60- 60-64 64 65- 65-69 69 70- 70-74 74 75- 75-79 79 80- 80-84 84 85- 85-89 89 90- 90-95 95 95- 95-99 99 100+ 100+ Age gr ge group

  • up

Popul

  • pulat

ation (

  • n (million)
  • n)

Fem emal ale e Mal ale e

1970 2010 2030 2050

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Demographic trends and projections

Share of Urban population

Source: Mckinsey 2010

Growth of large cities in India

Source: Census 2001

Million-plus Cities and Urban Agglomerations

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Source: 1. IEA Statistics

  • 2. Energy statistics 2013

India’s commercial energy consumption

slide-7
SLIDE 7

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Source: MoEF 2010

GHG Emissions

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Since 1981, the population of Bhopal has multiplied about 2.5 times and number

  • f

registered vehicles has increased 85 times. Of the 0.79 million registered vehicles in 2011, 92% are cars and two wheelers which accounts for 28% of modal share. Population growth (lakh nos) Vehicular growth(lakh nos)

Population v/s Vehicle Growth

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

1. Rapid Growth of Travel Demand 2. Insufficient Transport Infrastructure

Consequences……

  • Congestion
  • Growth in number of

vehicles

  • Limitation to road

expansion

  • Pollution
  • Accidents
  • Public Transport

Deterioration

  • Declining reliance on

NMT Travel Demand

  • Trip rate (per capita trip)
  • Size of the population
  • Per capita income
  • Trip length
  • City size and urban sprawl

Transport Sector Issues

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Income and energy in Residential Sector

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Residential and Transport Characteristics

1. T e c hnology shift is swift 2. Population inc r e ase 3. E ne r gy de mand inc r e asing 4. E mission r e duc tion pote ntial 5. Co be ne fits

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 POPULATION IN million

POPULATION OF INDIA ACTUAL AND PROJECTED

Census(1952- 2011) Census projection (2011-2026) UNPD HIGH(2000-2036) PFI(2000-2036) UN population

UNPD: United nations population Division PFI: Population foundation of India

Short Life span of technology Rapid advancement of new technology Introduction of efficient technology Multiple fuel options Passenger and freight kilometer Household Family size Income level Household Appliance …..

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Some Important Questions

  • 1. What drives energy demand and technology

choices in Indian residential and transport sector? 2. What has been the technology profile and resulting energy and emission in these sectors?

  • 3. How energy and emission trajectory is likely to

change in future under different scenarios?

  • 4. What is the role of clean/renewable energy

technology in bringing out this change?

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Residential and Transport Energy Scenario

  • India has experienced many changes in energy

consumption pattern in both residential and transport

  • sector. This is because of following factors:

– Population growth – Increase in economy and development

  • Electricity demand in the Indian household sector has also

been growing at a very rapid rate over the last decades

  • There is a large variation in energy consumption across

different sections of households like urban/rural, low/high income group

  • As the income of the people increases demand for

personalized modes of transport is expected to increase more rapidly

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Associated Problems and Co-benefits

  • Local pollution is one of the serious problems faced by the

people in the country.

  • Rapid population growth, industrialization and

urbanization in country are adversely affecting the environment as

  • India’s two third of the population resides in rural areas

and fuelwood and kerosene is the main fuel for cooking and lighting, both cause harm to the women cooking food in houses.

  • Due to increase in the number of vehicle, traffic

congestion is a serious problem in most of the cities in India.

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Technology Climate change & Emissions Local & Global Environment Concerns Technology

  • ptions

Energy Type Energy Mix Emission mitigation Outcomes

Socio-economic Development

Sectoral Development Energy Emission Mitigation efforts

ENERGY ENVIRONMENT ECONOMY SOCIETY Population Life style change Urbanization Income Analytical Tool Model

Drivers

Analysis Framework

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Modeling Framework

Energy System Optimization (AIM/ENDUSE)

End use services

Industry Transport Agriculture Residential Commercial Passenger travel Freight Travel Cooking Lighting Demand projection Outcomes Technology mix Emission Sectoral energy consumption Cooling Heating Other Electric end use Technology Share

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Diesel train Electric Train Air craft Ship Animal Cart Battery operated two wheeler Battery operated four wheeler Two Wheeler Three Wheeler Four Wheeler Bus HCV LCV Gasoline Heavy Oil Diesel CNG Electricity Coal ATF Animal power Solar Bio-Diesel Steam Train

Road Passenger kms Road Tons kms Rail Passenger kms Rail Tons kms Air Passenger kms Water Tons kms Water Passenger kms

Satish Yawale 093113201

Reference Energy Systems

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Electricity

Water Heating

Petromax lantern Hurricane lantern Wick lantern Solar Lantern LED Lighting CFL Light Tube light Incandescent Lamp

Lighting

LPG Coal Fuel wood Dung Crop residue Charcoal Solar LPG Stove Charcoal stove Coal Stove Fuel wood Stove Crop residue stove Kerosene Stove Electric stove Microwave oven OTG Stove Gas Oven Solar Cooker Solar Concentrator

Cooking

Solar Water heater Immersion heater

Appliances

Fan, Cooler, A/C Refrigerator TV Computer/Laptops Music players Washing Machine Hot Iron Other electrical appliance

Space Cooling/Heating Refrigeration Entertainment Washing Other end use

Kerosene

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Scenario Description

  • Business as Usual:

– BaU scenario for future emission projections assumes continuation with present trend.

  • Constraint on Carbon:

– Different level of CO2 emission reduction.

  • Taxes on Carbon:

– Energy and emission taxes are applied with assumption to shift towards efficient and cleaner technology

  • Renewable Energy Technology:

– Energy and emission taxes along with subsidy on renewable energy technology.

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Primary Energy and CO2 Emission

Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Energy and Emission Residential Sector

Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Energy and Emission in Transport Sector

Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Technology options in Residential Cooking Technology options in Residential Lighting

Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Technology options in Passenger Transportation Technology options in Freight Transportation

Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Scenario wise Energy Consumption

Future Energy Consumption in Transport Sector Future Energy Consumption in Residential sector

0.0 2.8 5.6 8.4 11.2 14.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transport Sector Energy Consumption Years

BaU_Transport CoC_Transport TCoC_Transport RET_Transport

Index Year 2000 = 1

0.0 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 3.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Residential Sector Energy Consumption Years BaU_Residential CoC_Residential TCoC_Residential RET_Residential

Index Year 2000 = 1

Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Scenario wise CO2 Emission

Future Emission in Transport Sector Future Emission in Residential Sector

0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Transport Sector CO2 Emission Years BaU_Transport CoC_Transport TCoC_Transport RET_Transport

Index Year 2000 = 1

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Residential Sector CO2 Emission Years BaU_Residential CoC_Residential TCoC_Residential RET_Residential

Index Year 2000 = 1

Results from ongoing study. Please do not quote.

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Energy:

  • Conventional fuels: bio-mass, wood, charcoal, cow dung reduce
  • Commercial fuels : electricity, natural gas, renewables, etc. increase
  • Residential Sector: LPG and Electricity - Main source of energy, Kerosene &

Coal - Decline its share by 2030 & 2020. Solar Energy - increases with subsidy

  • Transport Sector: Diesel and gasoline - increase in BaU, Decline slightly in
  • RET. Decrease in these fuels is possible with the use of bio-diesel and

promotion of cycling and walking.

Emission:

  • Over the analysis period the CO2 emission from residential and transport

sector of India increases by 2.5 fold and 8 fold respectively in BaU..

  • Advances in technologies and upcoming renewable options can bring down

the CO2 emission by 40% in year 2050.

  • In constraint scenarios, transport sector has higher potential to mitigate

emission whereas in RET scenario, residential sector takes the prominent position.

Technology choices:

Residential Sector: CFL, LED, Solar water heater, 3-5 star rating appliances Transport sector: Walking, cycling, bio-diesel, public transport

Major Findings

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Workshop on “Climate Change Scenario Development for Policy Analysis” Under TCS Colombo Plan, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India at NITTTR, Bhopal January 05-16, 2015 Participants from Myanmar, Lao PDR, Sri Lanka presenting regional analysis.

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal, India

Forthcoming Training Workshops on Climate Change Issues and Challenges

January 04-08, 2016 Modeling for Energy & Emission Policy Design (Using AIM EndUse & ExSS) February 15-19, 2016 Sustainable Development Practices for Technical Institutions (LCS Concepts) December 06-18, 2015 Climate Change, Scenario Development for Policy Analysis (Using AIM ExSS for LCS)

For details contact:

  • Prof. Aashish Deshpande, Department of Management,

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNICAL TEACHERS’ TRAINING & RESEARCH,

BHOPAL, INDIA

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Thank You….

mkapshe@gmail.com kapshem@manit.ac.in