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Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Local perspectives on mitigation technologies in Shanghai and Bali COP23 Side Event, November 6 th , Presentation by Jenny Lieu, Sussex University,

SLIDE 1

Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

COP23 Side Event, November 6th, Presentation by Jenny Lieu, Sussex University, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) Stefan Bößner, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

Local perspectives on mitigation technologies in Shanghai and Bali

SLIDE 2

AGENDA

Introduction to TRANSrisk
Shanghai buildings case study
Bali biogas case study
Final thoughts

SLIDE 3

C ASE S TUDY C OUNTRIES: A REAS STUDIED

Overarching Research Question: What are the costs, benefits and risks & uncertainties associated with transitions pathways for climate change mitigation policies? Americas

1. Canada

(SPRU)

2. Chile

(CLAPESU C)

Europe

3. Sweden (SEI)
4. Netherlands (JIN)
5. UK (SPRU)
6. Poland (IBS)
7. Austria (Uni Graz)
8. Switzerland (ETHZ)
9. Spain (BC3)
10. Greece (NTUA/ UPRC)

Africa

11. Kenya (SEI)

Asia

12. China

(SPRU)

13. India

(SPRU)

14. Indonesia

(SEI)

SLIDE 4

The growth of economy and

rising income improves indoor comfort

Urbanization and population

growth air pollution (smog) is a serious problem in mega cites

Increasing extreme climate

events such as heat waves cold trigger more energy consumption

CITIES & A IR P OLLUTION IN C HINA

Source: http://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/

Shanghai population: 25,202,000

SLIDE 5

A IR QUALITY: CITY COMPARISONS

Social persepctive: public concern for air pollution in Chinese cities

Source:‘Green Power Purchasing Intention of Chinese Consumers’ CREIA, 2016

SLIDE 6

Figure 1: Residential sector energy consumption in selected non-OECD regions by energy source, 2012 and 2040 (percent of total)

E NERGY MIX IN RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/buildings.cfm

SLIDE 7

National policy perspective

Five Year Plan (FYP) (2016-2020)
Retrofits of existing building: target of 5% per year
Energy efficiency for new buildings: target of 20% per year
Renewable energy mix: target of 6% in 2020 (4% in 2015)
National Determined Contribution (NDC)
Increase share of green building to 50% for new buildings by 2020
Promoting the application of renewable energy in buildings

P OLICY M IX: TARGET SETTING

SLIDE 8

Local policy perspective

In Shanghai subsidies for: retrofitting building, green

buildings, greening roof projects, and renewable energy L OCAL L EVEL P OLICIES

SLIDE 9

C ITIZEN’ S SOLAR POWER: G REEN-L IGHT Y EAR EXAMPLE

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/F_vCbPCxt4vlux69yXAYZw

‘Teacher’ Li's home was the

first to install solar PV in Minhang District, Shanghai in 2014

Technology perspective: total

installed capacity 1995 watts (19,800 RMB/~2560 EUR) 9.92RBM = watt

‘4 in 1 application’: power

generation, shade, clothes and rainwater collecting (30,000 RMB/~3880 EUR)

SLIDE 10

Economic perspective:

Benefits of household PV power

generation

1. Subsidies: the state subsidies

0.42 yuan/kWh + local government subsidies

2. Power generation for own use:

Shanghai electricity peak price: 0.617 RMB/ kWh.

3. Selling electricity: Shanghai

floating price in 0.41 RMB/kWh.

G REEN-L IGHT Y EAR E XAMPLE

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jEu52OESUOlhezgKsH8fMA

SLIDE 11

C ITIZEN’ S SOLAR POWER: G REEN-L IGHT Y EAR EXAMPLE

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/aq8fwRCOzUv4h2Pe-HyxPw

Social perspective: learning and education
Green Light Years initiative with the Minhang District authority and

the Minhang District Science and Technology Association planned and funded a low-carbon education field visit for children

SLIDE 12

Implementation barriers

Dependent on government investment for urban

building retrofit

Affordability
Education and initiative from individuals

Negative outcomes

Scaling up issues and grid imbalance
Impact on urban landscape
End of life waste

P OTENTIAL R ISKS OF S CALING OUT

SLIDE 13

Learning from China

Air pollution and urban development links
Local social needs vs. and national needs
Citizen participation

LEARNING FROM CHINA & STEPS FORWARD

China’s NDC: Promoting a ‘Low-Carbon Way of Life’

Education for all citizens on consumption
Public institutes to lead on:
government buildings and other public buildings
moderate consumption, curb extravagance and waste

SLIDE 14

J e n n y L i e u

T R A N S r i s k C o - Pr i n c i p a l I n v e s t i g a t o r

j . l i e u @ s u s s e x . a c . u k

Thank-you!

RISK & UNCERTAINTIES: POTENTIAL FUTURES

SLIDE 15

+250 million inhabitants, 491

regions, 77,000 government units

Prominent fossil fuel regime

(largest coal exporter, 7th largest gas exporter) makes it 7th largest GHG emitter

Policy objectives: energy security

(boost indigenous energy resources) & tackling climate change

Signatory to Paris Agreement
Biogas can help to meet targets

and to help rural populations

B IOGAS ADOPTION IN B ALI, I NDONESIA

SLIDE 16

Bali quite well developed, but pockets
f (energy) poverty exist
Although tourism is most important

revenue factors, agriculture is largest employer (and tourist attraction)

Biogas benefits include
Waste treatment (plant & animal)
Alleviate energy poverty
Reduce emaissions
Provide by-products such as bio

slurry

Reduce household tasks

B IOGAS ADOPTION IN B ALI, I NDONESIA

All subsequent photos by SEI and Su-re.co research

SLIDE 17

Formulating theoretical frameworks & research

questions

Two multi-stakeholder workshops carried out in

2015 and 2016

Extensive field work in October 2016 (interviews,

focus group discussions)

Literature review & contextual analysis

B IOGAS ADOPTION IN B ALI, I NDONESIA

SLIDE 18

Policy perspective:

Right policies and
bjectives should be in

place (lending, concrete targets etc.)

B IOGAS IN B ALI, ALIGNING THE STARS

Photo: REUTERS, Christian Hartmann

SLIDE 19

Policy perspective:

Right policies and objectives

should be in place (lending, concrete targets etc.) Technology perspective:

Technology should be

adapted to locality, climate and user needs

Functioning value chain

B IOGAS IN B ALI, ALIGNING THE STARS

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Policy perspective:

Right policies and objectives

should be in place (lending, concrete targets etc.) Technology perspective:

Technology should be adapted

to locality, climate and user needs

Functioning value chain

User perspective:

Education, information &

capacity

B IOGAS IN B ALI, ALIGNING THE STARS

SLIDE 21

Policy perspective:

Right policies and objectives should

be in place (lending, concrete targets etc.) Technology perspective:

Technology should be adapted to

locality, climate and user needs

Functioning value chain

User perspective:

Education, information & capacity

Economic perspective:

Co-benefits, maintenance services &

participation

B IOGAS IN B ALI, ALIGNING THE STARS

SLIDE 22

Local culture and context matter but is often
verlooked
Challenges are manifold and need to be addressed to

avoid reverting back

That needs both comprehensive (star alignment) but

also differentiated approaches (adapted to local needs)

Once all these and other risks challenges are
vercome, local-bottom-up action can play vital role

in tackling climate change

L ESSONS LEARNT FROM TWO CASES

SLIDE 23

Thank you very much for your attention!

Contacts: Jenny Lieu

Email: j.lieu@sussex.ac.uk Twitter:@transrisk_EU

Stefan Bößner

Email: Stefan.boessner@sei-international.org Twitter: @sboessner

L O C AL PERSPEC T I VES

O N MI T I GAT I O N T EC H NO LO GI ES I N S H ANGH AI A ND B ALI