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Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas

Anthony Joseph

My House Geek Chief Technology Officer YOW! Data 2019: 7 May 2019

linkedin.com/in/ anthony-joseph blog.myhousegeek .com.au info@myhousegeek .com.au

Slide 2 Slide 2 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Acknowledgement of country

We acknowledge the Traditional Owners of the country on which we meet today, the Gadigal people of the Eora nation, and recognise their continuing connection to land, waters and

• culture. We pay our respects to their Elders past, present and

emerging.

Slide 3 Slide 3 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Slide 4 Slide 4 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Catchment area introduction

“That every child is entitled to enrol in a particular school based on his or her residential address. Every public school reserves enough places within their school for students in their local enrolment area.” (NSW Education Department) School catchments (NSW, QLD, WA) Intake Area/Zones (NSW, TAS) Priority placement area (ACT) School zones (SA) Priority Enrolment Area (NT)

Slide 5 Slide 5 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Slide 6 Slide 6 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Case Studies

1. Catchment area size 2. Students per catchment area

Demographics Affordability

Longitudinal analysis on property sales

Commutability

Time to commute in a catchment area

Slide 7 Slide 7 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Data Sources

Demographics Affordability Commutability

School and catchments data Property sales data Suburb data NAPLAN data Public transport data Openstreetmap road network

Slide 8 Slide 8 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Data analysis Microsoft Excel Geoprocessing ArcGIS Pro (Win) QGIS (MacOS) Python/Pycharm Vehicle Routing OpenTripPlanner

Technology Used

Slide 9 Slide 9 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Demographics analysis

Catchment area size

• Geoprocessing with geometries

Students per catchment area

• Spatial joins
• Geoprocessing with attributes

Slide 10 Slide 10 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Catchment area size

Catchment area size

• Calculate geometry
• Shade catchments

by area

“The Surveyor General of NSW has also endorsed the use of a 'GDA Lambert' projection for state-wide GIS and mapping applications.”

Slide 11 Slide 11 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Slide 12 Slide 12 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Students per catchment area

NSW Catchments Data NSW Schools Data (number of students) Students per catchment area Catchment area Number of students per school

Slide 13 Slide 13 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Slide 14 Slide 14 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Affordability analysis

Historical sales prices vs school results Longitudinal data analysis

• Combining vector datasets
• Statistical analysis with spatial datasets

Slide 15 Slide 15 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Analysis challenges

School data

• By catchments

Sales data

• By suburb

Slide 16 Slide 16 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Combining data sets

Vector data

• Union
• Intersection

Point data

Image sources:

• https://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/tool-reference/analysis/union.htm
• https://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/tool-reference/analysis/intersect.htm
• https://pro.arcgis.com/en/pro-app/tool-reference/spatial-statistics/h-whyhexagons.htm

Slide 17 Slide 17 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Darlington Primary School and suburbs

Slide 18 Slide 18 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Combining catchments and suburbs

Slide 19 Slide 19 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Combining catchments and suburbs

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Combining catchments and suburbs

Name Proportion Newtown 15.0% Redfern 8.5% Eveleigh 24.3% Chippendale 27.2% Darlington 16.2% Haymarket 8.8%

Slide 21 Slide 21 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Sales data

$- $200,000.00 $400,000.00 $600,000.00 $800,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,200,000.00 $1,400,000.00 $1,600,000.00 $1,800,000.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Chippendale Darlington Eveleigh Haymarket Newtown Redfern

House sales Unit sales

$- $200,000.00 $400,000.00 $600,000.00 $800,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,200,000.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Chippendale Darlington Eveleigh Haymarket Newtown Redfern

Slide 22 Slide 22 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Affordability analysis

$- $200,000.00 $400,000.00 $600,000.00 $800,000.00 $1,000,000.00 $1,200,000.00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sale price ($AU) NAPLAN Score Year

Proportionate house sales Proportionate unit sales Year 3: Reading Year 3: Writing Year 3: Spelling Year 3: Grammar Year 3: Numeracy Year 5: Reading Year 5: Writing Year 5: Spelling Year 5: Grammar Year 5: Numeracy

Slide 23 Slide 23 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Commutability analysis

Time to commute in a school catchment

• Isochrones
• Intersections

Slide 24 Slide 24 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Slide 25 Slide 25 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Isochrone definition

How far can travel from a point for a particular time… Dependent on:

• Transport mode
• Time of day
• Ground elevation
• Walking speed
• Budget…

Slide 26 Slide 26 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Darlington Primary School commutability

Centre: Darlington Primary School Inputs:

• Transport mode:

walking/public transport

• Time of day: 8am 29 April 2019
• Walking speed: 4km/hr

Slide 27 Slide 27 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Key learnings

• Basic geoproessing
• Spatial joins
• Intersect/unions
• Isochrones
• Combining datasets
• Beware of map projections
• Automate the boring bits

Slide 28 Slide 28 Techniques Used to Analyse the Affordability, Commutability and Demographics of Real Estate in School Catchment Areas Anthony Joseph – My House Geek YOW! Data 2019

Geoprocessing with:

• Geometries
• Attributes

Analysis Techniques

Demographics Affordability Commutability

• Combining vector

datasets

• Statistical analysis

Isochrones (merging vector and raster datasets)