Taxing the (Very) Rich Public Perceptions of the Current Tax Law and - PDF document

7/2/2019 Taxing the (Very) Rich Public Perceptions of the Current Tax Law and on Taxing the Wealthy Celinda Lake Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066 1 Executive Summary • Raising taxes on the rich is overwhelmingly supported by voters. • Raising taxes on the rich is a top priority of voters. • Progressives are in great shape for a fight on this issue. • Trump’s 2017 tax bill is not popular. Most voters, including Republicans, don’t think they benefitted. • The best message in favor of raising taxes on the rich is that the rich should pay their fair share. 2 2 1

7/2/2019 Taxes are considered an important issue by the vast majority of Democrats, independents, and Republicans. How important are the following issues to you? - Taxes All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans 91 88 87 85 57 52 51 47 15 13 11 10 3 5 1 Important Not Important Important Not Important Important Not Important Important Not Important 3 Source: The Economist/YouGov, N=1500 US adult citizens, March 24-26, 2019 3 While traditionally a stronger area for Republicans, Democrats have brought this issue to a draw. Better on Taxes Trump vs Democrats* Republicans vs Democrats* -3 47 44 43 +2 41 16 8 Democrats in Congress Donald Trump None/Unsure Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress None/Unsure 4 *Split sampled Source: LRP Battleground Survey, April 2019 4 2

7/2/2019 Between $400,000 and $500,000 is the median annual income voters say makes someone be “rich,” although total assets are considered more important than annual income. 5 Source: ALG Research, 1,000 voters nationwide, March 2019. 5 Most Americans think that the wealthy in this country should pay more in taxes. This includes majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans. Wealthiest Americans Should Pay Higher Taxes All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans 91 76 74 62 74 54 52 32 17 14 32 5 8 8 14 Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Source: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, N=966 registered American voters, December 2018 6 6 3

7/2/2019 Democrats and independents are more motivated by populist language about taxes. Republicans are more likely to say they cannot afford a tax increase no matter what it is for. We should raise taxes on millionaires, I cannot afford a tax increase no matter billionaires, and wealthy corporations. what it is for. 47 74 34 74 Total Total 57 89 35 73 Democrats Democrats 45 73 35 73 Independents Independents 22 58 30 74 Republicans Republicans Agree (6-10) Strongly Agree (10) 7 Q22s/r. Now you will read a few statements. Please indicate, overall, if you agree or disagree with each on a scale of 0-10, with 0 meaning you strongly disagree and 10 meaning you strongly agree. 7 % who ___ of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress last year Tax fairness will be a Dissaprove Approve major issue in 2020. Total 49 36 Democrats are in staunch opposition to the 2017 tax law, while GOP/Lean GOP 13 71 Republicans are just as strongly in support. Dem/Lean Dem 79 10 Expectedly, high income respondents approve of $100,000 or more the law more than of 48 42 middle and low income $75,000-$99,999 47 38 respondents. $30,000-$74,999 50 35 Less than $30,000 52 29 8 Source: Pew Research Center, April 2019 8 4

7/2/2019 Over one-third of Americans who filed their taxes believe that they paid about the same amount under the new tax law than the previous law. Overall, only a quarter of adults say they paid less. Republicans are more likely to believe they are paying less, while Democrats are more likely to believe they are paying more. (If Already Filed) Do You Think You Paid More or Less Tax Under the New Tax Law Than You Would Have Paid Under the Old Law? Dem Ind. GOP More 35 21 10 About the 38 34 37 same Less 13 25 39 36 Not sure 14 20 15 25 22 17 Paid more Paid about the same Paid less Not sure 9 Source: The Economist/YouGov, N=814 (out of 1500) US adult citizens, March 24-26, 2019 9 While the vast majority of Democrats and a respectable majority of independents believe that the 2017 tax reforms will benefit the wealthy more, two-thirds of Republicans believe that the middle class will benefit more. Do You Think the Tax Reforms Signed Into Law in 2017 Will Do More to Benefit the Middle Class or Do More to Benefit the Wealthy? All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans 81 64 54 53 33 31 18 13 Middle Class Wealthy Middle Class Wealthy Middle Class Wealthy Middle Class Wealthy 10 Source: CNN, N=1011 adults, January 30-February 2, 2019 10 5

7/2/2019 A solid majority of Americans, including over 7-in-10 Democrats and 6-in-10 independents, support increasing the marginal tax rate on income over $10 million to 70 percent. Proposal to Increase Marginal Tax Rate on Income over $10 Million to 70 Percent All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans 71 61 59 55 45 41 40 29 41 34 29 28 21 13 18 18 Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose AB2: Currently the top tax rate is 37%. Would you favor or oppose a tax proposal that would apply a 70% rate to the 10 millionth dollar and beyond for individuals making $10 million a year or more in reportable income? 11 Source: The Hill / HarrisX, N= 1,001 Registered Voters, January 12-13, 2019 11 A plan proposed by Elizabeth Warren for a 2% wealth tax is even more popular than a 70% marginal tax plan. 12 Source: Morning Consult, N= 1,993 Registered Voters, February 1-2, 2019 12 6

7/2/2019 Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066 Celinda Lake clake@lakeresearch.com 13 7