Taxing the (Very) Rich Public Perceptions of the Current Tax Law and - - PDF document

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Taxing the (Very) Rich

Public Perceptions of the Current Tax Law and on Taxing the Wealthy

Celinda Lake

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066

Executive Summary

• Raising taxes on the rich is overwhelmingly supported by voters.
• Raising taxes on the rich is a top priority of voters.
• Progressives are in great shape for a fight on this issue.
• Trump’s 2017 tax bill is not popular. Most voters, including

Republicans, don’t think they benefitted.

• The best message in favor of raising taxes on the rich is that the rich

should pay their fair share.

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Taxes are considered an important issue by the vast majority of Democrats, independents, and Republicans. 87 13 88 11 85 15 91 10 51 3 57 47 5 52 1

Important Not Important Important Not Important Important Not Important Important Not Important

How important are the following issues to you? - Taxes

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All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans

Source: The Economist/YouGov, N=1500 US adult citizens, March 24-26, 2019

Better on Taxes

43 41 16

Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress None/Unsure

44 47 8

Democrats in Congress Donald Trump None/Unsure

While traditionally a stronger area for Republicans, Democrats have brought this issue to a draw.

Republicans vs Democrats*

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Trump vs Democrats*

Source: LRP Battleground Survey, April 2019

*Split sampled

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Between $400,000 and $500,000 is the median annual income voters say makes someone be “rich,” although total assets are considered more important than annual income.

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Source: ALG Research, 1,000 voters nationwide, March 2019.

Most Americans think that the wealthy in this country should pay more in taxes. This includes majorities of Democrats, independents, and Republicans. 76 14 91 5 74 17 62 32 54 8 74 52 8 32 14

Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Disagree

Wealthiest Americans Should Pay Higher Taxes

Source: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, N=966 registered American voters, December 2018

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All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans

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Democrats and independents are more motivated by populist language about taxes. Republicans are more likely to say they cannot afford a tax increase no matter what it is for.

Q22s/r. Now you will read a few statements. Please indicate, overall, if you agree or disagree with each on a scale of 0-10, with 0 meaning you strongly disagree and 10 meaning you strongly agree.

74 73 73 74 34 35 35 30

Total Democrats Independents Republicans

I cannot afford a tax increase no matter what it is for.

74 89 73 58 47 57 45 22

Total Democrats Independents Republicans Agree (6-10) Strongly Agree (10)

We should raise taxes

• n

millionaires, billionaires, and wealthy corporations.

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Tax fairness will be a major issue in 2020. Democrats are in staunch opposition to the 2017 tax law, while Republicans are just as strongly in support. Expectedly, high income respondents approve of the law more than of middle and low income respondents.

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49 13 79 48 47 50 52 36 71 10 42 38 35 29 Total GOP/Lean GOP Dem/Lean Dem $100,000 or more $75,000-$99,999 $30,000-$74,999 Less than $30,000 Dissaprove Approve

% who ___ of the tax law passed by Donald Trump and Congress last year

Source: Pew Research Center, April 2019

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Source: The Economist/YouGov, N=814 (out of 1500) US adult citizens, March 24-26, 2019

Over one-third of Americans who filed their taxes believe that they paid about the same amount under the new tax law than the previous law. Overall, only a quarter of adults say they paid less. Republicans are more likely to believe they are paying less, while Democrats are more likely to believe they are paying more.

22 36 25 17

Paid more Paid about the same Paid less Not sure (If Already Filed) Do You Think You Paid More or Less Tax Under the New Tax Law Than You Would Have Paid Under the Old Law?

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Dem Ind. GOP More 35 21 10 About the same 38 34 37 Less 13 25 39 Not sure 14 20 15

While the vast majority of Democrats and a respectable majority of independents believe that the 2017 tax reforms will benefit the wealthy more, two-thirds of Republicans believe that the middle class will benefit more. 33 53 13 81 31 54 64 18

Middle Class Wealthy Middle Class Wealthy Middle Class Wealthy Middle Class Wealthy Do You Think the Tax Reforms Signed Into Law in 2017 Will Do More to Benefit the Middle Class or Do More to Benefit the Wealthy?

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All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans

Source: CNN, N=1011 adults, January 30-February 2, 2019

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A solid majority of Americans, including over 7-in-10 Democrats and 6-in-10 independents, support increasing the marginal tax rate on income over $10 million to 70 percent. 59 41 71 29 61 40 45 55 29 21 41 13 28 18 18 34

Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Proposal to Increase Marginal Tax Rate on Income over $10 Million to 70 Percent

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All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans

AB2: Currently the top tax rate is 37%. Would you favor or oppose a tax proposal that would apply a 70% rate to the 10 millionth dollar and beyond for individuals making $10 million a year or more in reportable income? Source: The Hill / HarrisX, N= 1,001 Registered Voters, January 12-13, 2019

A plan proposed by Elizabeth Warren for a 2% wealth tax is even more popular than a 70% marginal tax plan.

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Source: Morning Consult, N= 1,993 Registered Voters, February 1-2, 2019

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Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066

Celinda Lake clake@lakeresearch.com 13