Nuclear Power Plant & Systems David Downing / Kenneth Green WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sargent & Lundy TUESDAY, 6 OCTOBER 2015
The Brief • To develop whole-of-life cost estimates for the development of nuclear power generation facilities in South Australia • Generation III or later • Commercially available by 2030 • Large-scale or small modular reactors • Infrastructure requirements: road; rail; water supply; electricity transmission • South Australian context • To develop business cases • Cost and revenue streams • Levelised cost of electricity • Required commercial returns • Developmental risk assessment • Requirements for project investment
Evolutionary Generation III Designs • Net capacities 700 – 1,600MWe • General Electric-Hitachi ABWR • KEPCO APR-1400 • AREVA EPR • Enhanced CANDU 6 (EC6)
Advanced Generation III+ Designs • Net capacities 1,100-1,600MWe • Westinghouse AP1000 • General Electric-Hitachi ESBWR • Advanced CANDU (ACR-1000)
Small Modular Reactors • Net capacities - 50-200MWe per reactor • NuScale • SMART • SMR-160 • mPower
The Brief - Modelling • To develop whole-of-life cost estimates for the development of nuclear power generation facilities in South Australia • Generation III or later • Commercially available by 2030 • Large-scale or small modular reactors • Infrastructure requirements: road; rail; water supply; electricity transmission • South Australian context
Economic Modelling • Inputs • Economic assumptions • Capital cost • Operating costs • Technical assumptions • Schedules • Outputs • Levelised cost of electricity, LCOE • Levelised price of electricity, LPOE • Inputs to CGE modelling by others
Economic Assumptions • Macro-economic assumptions • Escalation = 0.95% real (AETA, 2012) • Foreign exchange rates • AU$1.00 = US$0.73 (interim assumption) • Economic assumptions specific to NPP • Weighted average cost of capital, WACC • Assumed NPP business model • Revenue assumptions - wholesale electricity pricing • forecast using EY electricity market model • considers changes to mix of generation technologies • considers international and Australian climate change obligations
Weighted Average Cost of Capital • Basis of estimation WACC Assumptions • Long term capital structure: Experience of recent energy/infrastructure Debt 50% financing in Australia Equity 50% • Review of recent international NPP financing Cost of equity • Not market-tested Risk free rate (Rf) 4.9% • Market risk premium (Rm-Rf) 6.0% Long-term revenue certainty required Asset beta (ß) 0.5 • Governmental support required (e.g.) Alpha factor ( ) 3.0% • Loan guarantees Cost of debt • Tariff guarantees Risk free rate 4.9% Swap margin 0.5% Margin above swap 2.5% • Real pre-tax WACC = 10.47% Other assumptions • Consistent with other nuclear power study real Tax rate 30% pre-tax WACC assumptions Franking credit utilisation 0.0% Inflation rate 2.5% • Imperial College study “Cost estimates for Weighted average cost of capital nuclear power in the UK” - 11% Nominal post-tax 9.27% • AREVA: liberalised markets would require 11% Nominal pre-tax 13.24% Real post-tax 6.60% Real pre-tax 10.47%
Existing NPP Capital Cost Data • Westinghouse PWR AP1000 • Representative PWR design • Two US projects under construction • Vogtle in service June 2019 & June 2020 • VC Summer in service Sept 2019 & June 2020 • Headline cost information is available and reliable • Total project costs are publically reported • Contract and delay costs are reported separately • US construction costs more indicative of Australian costs than those of other projects (China, UAE, Korea)
Existing NPP Capital Cost Data • BWR • Comparisons of historical BWR vs. PWR capital costs show no material differences • PHWR • Historical CANDU experience is higher cost than US LWRs • Reports of proposed Cernavodă EC6 cost > AP1000 • CANDU (EC6 or ACR-1000) costs estimated to be > AP1000
SMR Cost Assumptions • SMR • No commercially available SMRs have yet been built • SMR developers projecting LW SMR technologies ~ US$5,000/kWe • Poorly defined scopes of supply and cost dates • Design and regulatory/licensing processes underway • SMART estimates US$9,000-US$10,000/kWe • UK Small Modular Reactors Feasibility Study, 2014 • Estimates between US$6,400-US$8,900/kWe • Costs need to compete with large-scale reactors • Cost projections are expected to be slightly greater than PWR
Assumptions – NPP Capital Cost • NPP Capital Costs • PWR/BWR – based on Vogtle/Summer costs with adjustments • HWR – higher than PWR/BWR – historical CANDU experience • SMRs – slightly higher to be competitive with PWR/BWR • Sensitivity to lower and higher costs to be studied Large Small Large Small PWR BWR PHWR PHWR SMR SMR AU$m 200 Project Development US$m 150 Regulatory / US$m 67 Licensing US$/kW 5,700 6,300 6,000 6.600 Construction (to be distributed across categories) US$m 6,413 8,978 7,560 4,662 2,160 1,881 Mid-Life Refit US$m 0 1,450 0 (in years 29 & 30)
Infrastructure Requirements • Generic “brownfield” and “greenfield” locations • Brownfield • Location supported by nearby existing infrastructure • Short local connections • Greenfield • No nearby existing infrastructure • 50km connection assets to existing infrastructure • Road, rail, water supply, electricity transmission
Infrastructure – Road & Rail • Road & rail • Independent of capacity of nuclear power plant • Greenfield - 50km spur road/rail to NPP, connections/junctions to existing infrastructure, refurbishment of existing infrastructure • Brownfield - 1-2km spur to NPP, connections/junctions to existing infrastructure, Refurbishment of existing infrastructure • Road • Two-lane highway to SA/national standards • Rail • Single line access and 2km loop to SA/national standards Greenfield Brownfield Roads AU$m 42 4 Rail AU$m 112 6
Infrastructure - Water • Large-scale plant (1,200 MW) • Cooling water • Once-through cooling - 200,000 tonnes/hour (4,800 megalitres/day) • Cooling tower make-up - 8,600 tonnes/hour (206 megalitres/day) • Steam cycle make-up – 60 tonnes/hour (1.4 megalitres/day) • Small modular reactor (300 MW) • Cooling • Once-through cooling - 50,000 tonnes/hour (1,200 megalitres/day) • Cooling tower make-up - 2,150 tonnes/hour (52 megalitres/day) • Steam cycle make-up – 15 tonnes/hour (0.4 megalitres/day) • Low-volume raw water requirements: • Service water • Potable water
Infrastructure - Water • Greenfield • Intake structure and pumping station • 50km pipeline to NPP • Brownfield • 2km spur connection to existing raw water supply infrastructure • All water treatment plant included in cost of NPP Large Small Large Small PWR BWR PHWR PHWR SMR SMR Greenfield AU$m 146 144 Once-through system included in NPP capital cost Brownfield AU$m 10 10
Electricity Transmission • Electranet information • Network 2035 Vision • Transmission Annual Planning Report • AEMO building block costs • 100 Per Cent Renewables Study - Electricity Transmission Cost Assumptions, 2012 • Small Modular Reactors (~300 MW total) • Greenfield – 50km 275kV line & substations • Brownfield – 275kV substation • Large-scale reactors • Greenfield – 50km 500kV line & substations • Brownfield – 500kV substation Large Small Large Small PWR BWR PHWR PHWR SMR SMR Greenfield AU$m 344 344 344 265 92 92 Brownfield AU$m 167 167 167 112 22 22
Electricity Transmission – additional costs • 500kV AC • New 800km backbone including series compensation • Building block costs for 1600MW, 1200MW, 700MW lines & substations • 275kV AC • Building block costs for 400MW lines & substations • 500kV/275kV substations • Building block costs for 1600MW, 1200MW, 700MW substations • HVDC • Building block costs for 1600MW, 1200MW, 700MW, 400MW HVDC links including bipolar lines & converter stations
Operating Costs – Fixed O&M • Fixed O&M as $/MW net/yr • US Nuclear Energy Institute reference data • US¢/kWhe – adjusted to S/MW/yr • Mix of onshore and offshore costs • Insurance as $/MW net/annum • Historically 2.5%-3% of capex per annum • Decommissioning • Funding of decommissioning reserve account as fixed O&M cost Large Small Large Small PWR BWR PHWR PHWR SMR SMR US$m/yr 29 41 31 19 9 7 Fixed O&M AU$m/yr 158 221 168 104 50 40 Insurance US$m/yr 19 27 23 14 6 6 Decomm’g US$m 500 575 500 500 250 250 fund target
Recommend
More recommend
