Systems David Downing / Kenneth Green WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff / - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Systems David Downing / Kenneth Green WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff / - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 30, 2022 273 likes •551 views

Nuclear Power Plant & Systems David Downing / Kenneth Green WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sargent & Lundy TUESDAY, 6 OCTOBER 2015 The Brief To develop whole-of-life cost estimates for the development of nuclear power generation

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SLIDE 1

Nuclear Power Plant & Systems

David Downing / Kenneth Green

WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff / Sargent & Lundy TUESDAY, 6 OCTOBER 2015

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SLIDE 2

The Brief

  • To develop whole-of-life cost estimates for the development of

nuclear power generation facilities in South Australia

  • Generation III or later
  • Commercially available by 2030
  • Large-scale or small modular reactors
  • Infrastructure requirements: road; rail; water supply; electricity transmission
  • South Australian context
  • To develop business cases
  • Cost and revenue streams
  • Levelised cost of electricity
  • Required commercial returns
  • Developmental risk assessment
  • Requirements for project investment
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SLIDE 3

Evolutionary Generation III Designs

  • Net capacities 700–1,600MWe
  • General Electric-Hitachi ABWR
  • KEPCO APR-1400
  • AREVA EPR
  • Enhanced CANDU 6 (EC6)
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SLIDE 4

Advanced Generation III+ Designs

  • Net capacities 1,100-1,600MWe
  • Westinghouse AP1000
  • General Electric-Hitachi ESBWR
  • Advanced CANDU (ACR-1000)
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SLIDE 5
  • Net capacities - 50-200MWe per reactor
  • NuScale
  • SMART
  • SMR-160
  • mPower

Small Modular Reactors

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SLIDE 6

The Brief - Modelling

  • To develop whole-of-life cost estimates for the development
  • f nuclear power generation facilities in South Australia
  • Generation III or later
  • Commercially available by 2030
  • Large-scale or small modular reactors
  • Infrastructure requirements: road; rail; water supply; electricity

transmission

  • South Australian context
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SLIDE 7

Economic Modelling

  • Inputs
  • Economic assumptions
  • Capital cost
  • Operating costs
  • Technical assumptions
  • Schedules
  • Outputs
  • Levelised cost of electricity, LCOE
  • Levelised price of electricity, LPOE
  • Inputs to CGE modelling by others
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SLIDE 8

Economic Assumptions

  • Macro-economic assumptions
  • Escalation = 0.95% real (AETA, 2012)
  • Foreign exchange rates
  • AU$1.00 = US$0.73 (interim assumption)
  • Economic assumptions specific to NPP
  • Weighted average cost of capital, WACC
  • Assumed NPP business model
  • Revenue assumptions - wholesale electricity pricing
  • forecast using EY electricity market model
  • considers changes to mix of generation technologies
  • considers international and Australian climate change obligations
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SLIDE 9

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

  • Basis of estimation
  • Experience of recent energy/infrastructure

financing in Australia

  • Review of recent international NPP financing
  • Not market-tested
  • Long-term revenue certainty required
  • Governmental support required (e.g.)
  • Loan guarantees
  • Tariff guarantees
  • Real pre-tax WACC = 10.47%
  • Consistent with other nuclear power study real

pre-tax WACC assumptions

  • Imperial College study “Cost estimates for

nuclear power in the UK” - 11%

  • AREVA: liberalised markets would require 11%

WACC Assumptions Long term capital structure: Debt 50% Equity 50% Cost of equity Risk free rate (Rf) 4.9% Market risk premium (Rm-Rf) 6.0% Asset beta (ß) 0.5 Alpha factor () 3.0% Cost of debt Risk free rate 4.9% Swap margin 0.5% Margin above swap 2.5% Other assumptions Tax rate 30% Franking credit utilisation 0.0% Inflation rate 2.5% Weighted average cost of capital Nominal post-tax 9.27% Nominal pre-tax 13.24% Real post-tax 6.60% Real pre-tax 10.47%

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SLIDE 10

Existing NPP Capital Cost Data

  • Westinghouse PWR AP1000
  • Representative PWR design
  • Two US projects under construction
  • Vogtle in service June 2019 & June 2020
  • VC Summer in service Sept 2019 & June 2020
  • Headline cost information is available and reliable
  • Total project costs are publically reported
  • Contract and delay costs are reported separately
  • US construction costs more indicative of Australian costs than those
  • f other projects (China, UAE, Korea)
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SLIDE 11

Existing NPP Capital Cost Data

  • BWR
  • Comparisons of historical BWR vs. PWR capital costs show no

material differences

  • PHWR
  • Historical CANDU experience is higher cost than US LWRs
  • Reports of proposed Cernavodă EC6 cost > AP1000
  • CANDU (EC6 or ACR-1000) costs estimated to be > AP1000
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SLIDE 12

SMR Cost Assumptions

  • SMR
  • No commercially available SMRs have yet been built
  • SMR developers projecting LW SMR technologies ~ US$5,000/kWe
  • Poorly defined scopes of supply and cost dates
  • Design and regulatory/licensing processes underway
  • SMART estimates US$9,000-US$10,000/kWe
  • UK Small Modular Reactors Feasibility Study, 2014
  • Estimates between US$6,400-US$8,900/kWe
  • Costs need to compete with large-scale reactors
  • Cost projections are expected to be slightly greater than PWR
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SLIDE 13

Assumptions – NPP Capital Cost

  • NPP Capital Costs
  • PWR/BWR – based on Vogtle/Summer costs with adjustments
  • HWR – higher than PWR/BWR – historical CANDU experience
  • SMRs – slightly higher to be competitive with PWR/BWR
  • Sensitivity to lower and higher costs to be studied

PWR BWR Large PHWR Small PHWR Large SMR Small SMR Project Development AU$m 200 US$m 150 Regulatory / Licensing US$m 67 Construction

(to be distributed across categories)

US$/kW 5,700 6,300 6,000 6.600 US$m 6,413 8,978 7,560 4,662 2,160 1,881 Mid-Life Refit

(in years 29 & 30)

US$m 1,450

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SLIDE 14

Infrastructure Requirements

  • Generic “brownfield” and “greenfield” locations
  • Brownfield
  • Location supported by nearby existing infrastructure
  • Short local connections
  • Greenfield
  • No nearby existing infrastructure
  • 50km connection assets to existing infrastructure
  • Road, rail, water supply, electricity transmission
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SLIDE 15

Infrastructure – Road & Rail

  • Road & rail
  • Independent of capacity of nuclear power plant
  • Greenfield - 50km spur road/rail to NPP, connections/junctions to existing

infrastructure, refurbishment of existing infrastructure

  • Brownfield - 1-2km spur to NPP, connections/junctions to existing

infrastructure, Refurbishment of existing infrastructure

  • Road
  • Two-lane highway to SA/national standards
  • Rail
  • Single line access and 2km loop to SA/national standards

Greenfield Brownfield Roads

AU$m 42 4

Rail

AU$m 112 6

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SLIDE 16

Infrastructure - Water

  • Large-scale plant (1,200 MW)
  • Cooling water
  • Once-through cooling - 200,000 tonnes/hour (4,800 megalitres/day)
  • Cooling tower make-up - 8,600 tonnes/hour (206 megalitres/day)
  • Steam cycle make-up – 60 tonnes/hour (1.4 megalitres/day)
  • Small modular reactor (300 MW)
  • Cooling
  • Once-through cooling - 50,000 tonnes/hour (1,200 megalitres/day)
  • Cooling tower make-up - 2,150 tonnes/hour (52 megalitres/day)
  • Steam cycle make-up – 15 tonnes/hour (0.4 megalitres/day)
  • Low-volume raw water requirements:
  • Service water
  • Potable water
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SLIDE 17

Infrastructure - Water

  • Greenfield
  • Intake structure and pumping station
  • 50km pipeline to NPP
  • Brownfield
  • 2km spur connection to existing raw water supply infrastructure
  • All water treatment plant included in cost of NPP

PWR BWR Large PHWR Small PHWR Large SMR Small SMR Greenfield

AU$m Once-through system included in NPP capital cost 146 144

Brownfield

AU$m 10 10

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SLIDE 18

Electricity Transmission

  • Electranet information
  • Network 2035 Vision
  • Transmission Annual Planning Report
  • AEMO building block costs
  • 100 Per Cent Renewables Study - Electricity Transmission Cost Assumptions, 2012
  • Small Modular Reactors (~300 MW total)
  • Greenfield – 50km 275kV line & substations
  • Brownfield – 275kV substation
  • Large-scale reactors
  • Greenfield – 50km 500kV line & substations
  • Brownfield – 500kV substation

PWR BWR Large PHWR Small PHWR Large SMR Small SMR Greenfield

AU$m 344 344 344 265 92 92

Brownfield

AU$m 167 167 167 112 22 22

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SLIDE 19

Electricity Transmission – additional costs

  • 500kV AC
  • New 800km backbone including series compensation
  • Building block costs for 1600MW, 1200MW, 700MW lines &

substations

  • 275kV AC
  • Building block costs for 400MW lines & substations
  • 500kV/275kV substations
  • Building block costs for 1600MW, 1200MW, 700MW substations
  • HVDC
  • Building block costs for 1600MW, 1200MW, 700MW, 400MW HVDC

links including bipolar lines & converter stations

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SLIDE 20

Operating Costs – Fixed O&M

  • Fixed O&M as $/MW net/yr
  • US Nuclear Energy Institute reference data
  • US¢/kWhe – adjusted to S/MW/yr
  • Mix of onshore and offshore costs
  • Insurance as $/MW net/annum
  • Historically 2.5%-3% of capex per annum
  • Decommissioning
  • Funding of decommissioning reserve account as fixed O&M cost

PWR BWR Large PHWR Small PHWR Large SMR Small SMR Fixed O&M

US$m/yr 29 41 31 19 9 7 AU$m/yr 158 221 168 104 50 40

Insurance

US$m/yr 19 27 23 14 6 6

Decomm’g fund target

US$m 500 575 500 500 250 250

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SLIDE 21

Operating Costs – Fuel & non-fuel variable

  • Fuel cost as $/MWh net
  • US Nuclear Energy Institute reference data – enriched fuel US$7.6/MWh, 2014
  • HWR fuel unenriched, higher volume/fabrication costs
  • SMRs – enriched fuel, but lower efficiency – higher cost
  • Fuel has limited life - effectively fixed cost
  • Spent fuel cost as $/MWh net
  • “Wet” storage included in NPP Fixed O&M
  • “Dry” storage levy to fund off-site long-term waste storage facility
  • Non-fuel variable O&M as $/MWh net
  • Non-material in relation to capital, fixed O&M and fuel cost elements
  • Infrastructure cost as $/yr
  • Transmission connection and use of system (TUoS)

PWR BWR Large PHWR Small PHWR Large SMR Small SMR Fuel

US$/MWh 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.6 9.2 9.2 US$m/yr 69 97 73 45 27 21

Spent Fuel

US$/MWh 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 US$m/yr 14 19 14 9 4 3

Transmission

AU$m/yr 4.7 6.1 4.7 2.8 0.7 0.7

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SLIDE 22

Technical assumptions

  • Net Power Output
  • Representative examples of technologies
  • PWR, BWR, Large PHWR, Small PHWR, Large SMR, Small SMR
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SLIDE 23

Assumptions – Capacity Factor

  • Baseload operation with allowance for forced & planned
  • utages, refits/life extension
  • Mature well-known technologies by 2030
  • Baseload capacity factors - 95-96% without refueling
  • Base case lifetime average capacity factor ~ 90%
  • Sensitivity range from 85% to 95% lifetime average
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SLIDE 24

Assumptions - Schedule

  • Commencement of operation in 2030
  • Sensitivity to variation in pre-construction and construction

durations to be studied

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SLIDE 25

Modelling – Outputs

  • Levelised cost of electricity, LCOE
  • Ratio of NPV of whole-of-life NPP costs to NPV of whole-of-life

electricity production

  • Breakdown of LCOE constituents
  • Levelised price of electricity, LPOE
  • Ratio of NPV of whole-of-life NPP electricity sales to NPV of whole-of-

life electricity production

  • Determination of return on investment
  • NPV costs of infrastructure building blocks
  • Inputs to CGE modelling by others
  • Aggregated categorised real costs over life of NPP
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SLIDE 26

Detailed business case

  • Modelling outputs to inform detailed business case
  • Cost and revenue streams
  • Levelised cost of electricity
  • Sensitivity to variables including:
  • Pre-construction and construction duration and costs
  • Decommissioning reserve requirement
  • Infrastructure costs
  • Operating costs
  • Fuel and spent fuel costs
  • Generation average capacity factors
  • Economic assumptions
  • Assessment of IRR vs required commercial expectations
  • Identification of funding “gaps”
  • Developmental risk assessment
  • Requirements for project investment
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SLIDE 27