system modelling Workshop on Addressing Flexibility in Energy S - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Holistic approaches in addressing flexibility in energy system modelling

Workshop on “Addressing Flexibility in Energy System Models”, 4th Dec. 2014, Petten Tiina Koljonen VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Place for a photo (no lines around photo)

Smart Energy and System Integration (SMART)

Research Teams, Tuula Mäkinen

• Efficient buildings, 20 persons, Riikka Holopainen
• Ecoefficient districts, 20 persons, Jari Shemeikka
• Wind power, 20 persons, Geert-Jan Bluemink
• Intelligent built environment, 16 persons, Isabel Pinto Seppä
• Energy systems, 25 persons, Tiina Koljonen

Research Focus

• Solutions and services for the smart energy value chain

Most Important Customers

• Cities: Smart and sustainable cities
• Energy companies: Smart energy networks, energy

system optimisation

• Wind power technology providers: Solutions for wind turbines

in cold climates

• Ministries and authorities: Policy analysis, energy

and emission scenarios, and impact assessment

• Ministries as funding bodies: EcoCities for emerging economies

and developing countries

Flexibility is the key

• Integrating wind power and PV is less costly if one can:
• Balance large areas – wind power variability and uncertainty

decrease with increasing spatial scale

• Act few hours ahead – forecast errors decrease considerably
• Increase flexibility:
• Transmission capacity – also for balancing
• Reservoir hydro power is flexible – within the reservoir limits
• Thermal power plants are flexible – part-load operation

somewhat less efficient

• District heating systems can offer serious flexibility (electric

boilers, heat pumps, large heat storages)

• Markets in the future: demand side flexibility, more liquid intra

day markets, shorter gate closures

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Development of future energy system calls for holistic approaches

• New technical solutions, including new (hybrid) energy concepts,

and increasingly integrated concepts are entering in the markets.

• Modelling should include complex combination of centralized and

decentralized energy production with a wide variety of energy resources and new energy technologies.

• Not only new technical solutions but also new market based

solutions are required at all levels of the energy system to economically integrate the increasing variability and uncertainty.

• Electricity consumers are becoming more important but harnessing

the flexibility in the demand side is a complicated and multidisciplinary issue.

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• Improved and/or new analysis methodologies are required to

describe the decision making

• CAPEX and OPEX do not work well especially with private and/or

small scale consumers, who invest in ”own” energy production or do not invest in energy efficiency and/or saving

• Companies are looking for new business models

several products are sold, not just heat and power Impacts on DSM

• Need for improvement of integrated analysis methodologies at

all the levels of the system:

• frequency and voltage stability studies
• unit commitment and economic dispatch tools
• regional planning
• global integrated assessment modelling

… and modelling of future energy systems calls for holistic approaches

Example: A sustainable district

... is attained by a combination of existing technologies that can be used in the specific local context to achieve the required level of energy consumption.

Wind

Solar energy

Biomass Optimised transportation Geothermal heat pumps Combined heat and power Energy storage Hydropower Fuel cells Waste heat High efficient central plants

Energy efficient buildings

Economic efficiency by integrated system

• ptimisation

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What is the value of flexibility?

• A central question to be modelled and analysed is the value of

flexibility in the current and future systems:

• What is the value of flexible generation?
• What is the value of flexible demand?
• What is the value of energy storage?
• What is the value of combination of these options.
• Challenge: The value of flexibility should be considered on

different levels:

• Different operational time scales, in different geographic regions,

and in different market regions.

• The distribution of the value of flexibility to the different participants

in energy systems is also an important question.

Conceptual sketch of options to integrate variable generation

• The order is system specific and cost increases are not

parallel and linear as depicted in the figure

• Especially DSM and interconnections have multiple price

levels

Hydro Pumped Hydro Gas Storage Batteries Flywheels SMES CAES Capacitors PHEV

Low Cost High Cost Increasing share of variable generation

Solutions with energy storages

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Storage capacity kW

Milli- seconds Seconds Minutes Hours

Supercapacitor SMES Flywheel Lead-acid Ni-Cad Li-Ion NAS Pumped hydro Vanadium redox

Customer power quality improvement Large-scale island

• peration

Small-scale island

• peration

Network power quality improvement Customer energy

• ptimization

Gusty wind

• utput

power smoothing PV output smoothing

VTT resources

Fully capable, but regional:

VTT EMM Electricity market model

Global scale:

TIAM/TIMES Integrated model

Nordic scale Soft link

ANALYSIS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND CONCEPTS AT VTT

Methane economy (P2G)

• 1. Creation of the transformative scenarios for Finland and
• ther market areas with maximum shares of renewables.
• 2. Creation of new modelling environment (VTT, LUT)

i. Long-term impacts on energy economy ii. Effects on the power system in an operational time scale

• iii. Effects on power system stability

3. Business cases, value chains 4. Dynamic simulation and modelling 5. Experimental work

Storages in operational time scale and effects on power system

• Answers which kind of energy storages are needed and how

many in transition towards 100% renewable

• Answers what the economic benefits (for P2G and the whole

system) will be for various scenarios

• Hourly energy balance, power plants ramping, annual full-load

hours, reserve allocation, etc.

• Provides input for the frequency response
• Ability to allow variable generation to

participate in the various reserve types

Frequency Response and Reserves

• Hourly calculation of the frequency

excursions and frequency rate of change, which affect the need of reserves

• Comparison of hourly inertia for different

scenarios

• How the energy storage (such as P2G) can

provide services to the system and increase its income

• by combining several different income

sources, such as reducing the operators

• wn imbalance costs, providing capacity to

the balancing market and providing different types of system reserves

• we hope to see this result also for other

countries of interest where different market models prevail

Balancing market Services to the grid FCR, FRR Energy markets Balance management

Robust Decision Making (RDM) process

• Define strategies (e.g. existing

investment plans)

• Test the proposed strategies against

all possible futures

• Identify futures in which the

startegies fail (are vulnerabile)

• Combine the vulnerabilities into a

handful of future descriptions, scenarios (scenario discovery)

• Update the strategies (make them

e.g. adaptive) to cope with the vulnerabilities

• Test (and update if necessary) until

robustness is achieved.

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Long-term impacts on energy economy

• Modelling and analysis of the transformative scenarios assessed

with the VTT TIMES global energy system model and LUT energy model with an hourly resolved annual and 50 km spatially base for cost optimised investment.

• Effects of further integrating energy markets are analysed.

Interaction of energy sectors is researched in much detail.

• Technical solutions applicable globally and in in Finland are

evaluated for their world market potential.

What is the “optimal” share of PV and wind in Finland and in

• ther market regions taken into account new technological
• ptions

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• 10

10 30 50 70 90 110

2050 2030 2020 2010

Electricity supply, TWh

Baseline Base-80% Growth Save Stagnate Change Baseline Base-80% Growth Save Stagnate Change Baseline Base-80% Growth Save Stagnate Change Electricity imports Solar etc. District CHP Industrial CHP Gas/oil condensing Coal/peat condensing Wind power Hydro power Nuclear

www.lowcarbonplatform.fi

• The change scenario

included app. 45% solar & wind from total electricity demand

• Modelling of storages

in TIMES

• No new nuclear
• Structural changes of

the industrial and residential sectors

• Optimistic scenarios

for cost development

• f solar and wind

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Global constraints for clean energy technologies

Example: Critical metallic elements considered in the TIMES- VTT model. Collaboration with the Geological Survey of Finland

• The availability &

price of silver may limit the investments in solar. Silver is also used in electronics and large shares of EVs may hamper the situation even more.

• Other critical element

might be Indium (used in led lightning and solar)

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%

Ag Nd Pr Dy Tb Y La Ce Eu Co Pt Ru In Te Proportion to total resources, %

Substitute Mining Consumption

• Fig. 1. Cumulative consumption, mining and substitute supply of critical metals.

Source: Grandell et al 2014

VTT’s local microgrid test site

• VTT’s microgrid lab for customer

level application development

• Some features of the test site
• Wind mill 5,5 kW
• PV panels 3,6 kW.
• Inverter 400V ~3 phase

15 kW

• Energy storage 58 kWh
• EV and charging post
• Controllable domestic loads
• Specific focus areas
• User interfaces
• Local energy management
• Dual AC/DC networks

User Interface Home Electric mobile Local energy production Electric distribution network

VTT research alignments

• Joint research platforms integrating

power system and communication simulations

• Smart meter data processing

techniques

• Applications for enhanced user

involvement

• Electric mobility and storage

integration

• Facilities based on standard

interfaces such as IEC61850

Conclusions

• The energy system is becoming more complex and dynamic than ever before. At

the same, new business opportunities and roles will arise.

• Increased use of renewable energy sources will reduce environmental impacts

but also challenge the optimization of the systems.

• As always, matching energy production and demand in a secured and cost-

effective way has to be assured. Totally new energy concepts and systems can be used for this.

• Future needs:
• Holistic understanding of energy systems and their interdependencies
• Competence in modelling and simulation of complex energy systems integrating

various technologies on different system levels.

• Solutions for applying new technologies for clean and smart energy systems
• Technologies for managing and processing big energy data masses
• Solutions for finding the essentials from data and analysis available

TECHNOLOGY FOR BUSINESS Contact: tiina.koljonen@vtt.fi

• tel. +358 50 3599549