system modelling Workshop on Addressing Flexibility in Energy S - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Holistic approaches in Place for a photo addressing flexibility in energy (no lines around photo) system modelling Workshop on “Addressing Flexibility in Energy S ystem Models”, 4 th Dec. 2014, Petten Tiina Koljonen VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Smart Energy and System Integration (SMART) Research Teams, Tuula Mäkinen  Efficient buildings, 20 persons, Riikka Holopainen  Ecoefficient districts, 20 persons, Jari Shemeikka  Wind power, 20 persons, Geert-Jan Bluemink  Intelligent built environment, 16 persons, Isabel Pinto Seppä  Energy systems, 25 persons, Tiina Koljonen Research Focus  Solutions and services for the smart energy value chain Most Important Customers  Cities: Smart and sustainable cities  Energy companies: Smart energy networks, energy system optimisation  Wind power technology providers: Solutions for wind turbines in cold climates  Ministries and authorities: Policy analysis, energy and emission scenarios, and impact assessment  Ministries as funding bodies: EcoCities for emerging economies and developing countries

Flexibility is the key  Integrating wind power and PV is less costly if one can:  Balance large areas – wind power variability and uncertainty decrease with increasing spatial scale  Act few hours ahead – forecast errors decrease considerably  Increase flexibility:  Transmission capacity – also for balancing  Reservoir hydro power is flexible – within the reservoir limits  Thermal power plants are flexible – part-load operation somewhat less efficient  District heating systems can offer serious flexibility (electric boilers, heat pumps, large heat storages)  Markets in the future: demand side flexibility, more liquid intra day markets, shorter gate closures

Development of future energy system calls for holistic approaches  New technical solutions, including new (hybrid) energy concepts, and increasingly integrated concepts are entering in the markets.  Modelling should include complex combination of centralized and decentralized energy production with a wide variety of energy resources and new energy technologies.  Not only new technical solutions but also new market based solutions are required at all levels of the energy system to economically integrate the increasing variability and uncertainty.  Electricity consumers are becoming more important but harnessing the flexibility in the demand side is a complicated and multidisciplinary issue. 12/12/2014 4 4

… and modelling of future energy systems calls for holistic approaches  Improved and/or new analysis methodologies are required to describe the decision making  CAPEX and OPEX do not work well especially with private and/or small scale consumers, who invest in ”own” energy production or do not invest in energy efficiency and/or saving  Companies are looking for new business models  several products are sold, not just heat and power  Impacts on DSM  Need for improvement of integrated analysis methodologies at all the levels of the system:  frequency and voltage stability studies  unit commitment and economic dispatch tools  regional planning  global integrated assessment modelling 12/12/2014 5 5

Example: A sustainable district ... is attained by a combination of existing technologies that can be used in the specific local context to achieve the required level of energy consumption. Energy Solar efficient energy buildings High efficient Fuel cells central plants Geothermal Wind heat pumps Combined Hydropower heat and power Energy Biomass storage Optimised Waste heat transportation Economic efficiency by integrated system optimisation

What is the value of flexibility?  A central question to be modelled and analysed is the value of flexibility in the current and future systems:  What is the value of flexible generation?  What is the value of flexible demand?  What is the value of energy storage?  What is the value of combination of these options.  Challenge: The value of flexibility should be considered on different levels:  Different operational time scales, in different geographic regions, and in different market regions.  The distribution of the value of flexibility to the different participants in energy systems is also an important question. 12/12/2014 7 7

Conceptual sketch of options to integrate variable generation Batteries Flywheels SMES High CAES Capacitors Cost PHEV Hydro Pumped Hydro Gas Storage Low Cost Increasing share of variable generation  The order is system specific and cost increases are not parallel and linear as depicted in the figure  Especially DSM and interconnections have multiple price levels

Solutions with energy storages Vanadium redox Pumped Large-scale Small-scale island hydro NAS Hours island operation Customer operation energy optimization Li-Ion Ni-Cad PV output Lead-acid Minutes smoothing Flywheel Gusty wind Customer Seconds output power Network power quality power smoothing SMES improvement quality improvement Supercapacitor Milli- seconds 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 Storage capacity kW

Fully capable, VTT resources but regional: Nordic scale VTT EMM Electricity market model Soft link Global scale: TIAM/TIMES Integrated model

ANALYSIS OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND CONCEPTS AT VTT

Methane economy (P2G)

1. Creation of the transformative scenarios for Finland and other market areas with maximum shares of renewables. 2. Creation of new modelling environment (VTT, LUT) i. Long-term impacts on energy economy ii. Effects on the power system in an operational time scale iii. Effects on power system stability 3. Business cases, value chains 4. Dynamic simulation and modelling 5. Experimental work

Storages in operational time scale and effects on power system  Answers which kind of energy storages are needed and how many in transition towards 100% renewable  Answers what the economic benefits (for P2G and the whole system) will be for various scenarios  Hourly energy balance, power plants ramping, annual full-load hours, reserve allocation, etc.  Provides input for the frequency response  Ability to allow variable generation to participate in the various reserve types

Frequency Response and Reserves  Hourly calculation of the frequency excursions and frequency rate of change, which affect the need of reserves  Comparison of hourly inertia for different scenarios  How the energy storage (such as P2G) can provide services to the system and increase its income  by combining several different income sources, such as reducing the operators own imbalance costs, providing capacity to the balancing market and providing Energy markets Services to the grid different types of system reserves Balance Balancing  we hope to see this result also for other FCR, FRR management market countries of interest where different market models prevail

Robust Decision Making (RDM) process  Define strategies (e.g. existing investment plans)  Test the proposed strategies against all possible futures  Identify futures in which the startegies fail (are vulnerabile)  Combine the vulnerabilities into a handful of future descriptions, scenarios (scenario discovery)  Update the strategies (make them e.g. adaptive) to cope with the vulnerabilities  Test (and update if necessary) until robustness is achieved.

Long-term impacts on energy economy  Modelling and analysis of the transformative scenarios assessed with the VTT TIMES global energy system model and LUT energy model with an hourly resolved annual and 50 km spatially base for cost optimised investment.  Effects of further integrating energy markets are analysed. Interaction of energy sectors is researched in much detail.  Technical solutions applicable globally and in in Finland are evaluated for their world market potential.  What is the “optimal” share of PV and wind in Finland and in other market regions taken into account new technological options 12/12/2014 17 17

www.lowcarbonplatform.fi  The change scenario included app. 45% 2010 2020 2030 2050 solar & wind from total 110 Electricity electricity demand imports Solar etc. 90  Modelling of storages Electricity supply, TWh District in TIMES CHP 70 Industrial CHP  No new nuclear Gas/oil 50 condensing  Structural changes of Coal/peat condensing 30 the industrial and Wind power residential sectors Hydro 10 power  Optimistic scenarios Nuclear -10 for cost development Growth Save Growth Save Growth Save Baseline Base-80% Stagnate Change Baseline Base-80% Stagnate Change Baseline Base-80% Stagnate Change of solar and wind 12/12/2014 18 18

Global constraints for clean energy technologies Example: Critical metallic elements considered in the TIMES- VTT model. Collaboration with the Geological Survey of Finland  The availability & 350% Proportion to total resources, % price of silver may Substitute 300% Mining limit the investments Consumption 250% in solar. Silver is also used in electronics 200% and large shares of 150% EVs may hamper the 100% situation even more. 50%  Other critical element 0% might be Indium Ag Nd Pr Dy Tb Y La Ce Eu Co Pt Ru In Te (used in led lightning Fig. 1. Cumulative consumption, mining and substitute supply of critical metals. and solar) Source: Grandell et al 2014 12/12/2014 19 19