Demand Management Options to Support VRE Grid Integration FP7 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demand Management Options to Support VRE Grid Integration FP7 ADVANCE Workshop Utrecht University 21 January 2015 Michael Hogan Senior Advisor Phone: +32 2-894-9300 rue de la Science 23 The Regulatory Assistance Project web: www.raponline.org B - 1040 Brussels Belgium

A more flexible thermal plant mix needed Peak Mid-merit Baseload Peak Mid-merit Baseload 2

A more flexible thermal plant mix needed Source: G. Strbac, Imperial College London 3

Flexible generation is just one piece of the puzzle Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 4

Flexible generation is just one piece of the puzzle Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014 5

Benefit of demand-side flexibility RES Transmission & additional generation capacity curtailment 2 requirements 1 Pathways DSM Transmission Back-up and balancing % 3 80% RES 0% 10% CCS 10% nuclear 20% 2 2 60% RES 0% 20% CCS 20% nuclear 20% 1 40% RES 2 0% 30% CCS 30% nuclear 20% 2 Source: ECF, Roadmap 2050 (2010) 6

Benefit-cost ratios of different flexibility options Source: IEA, The Power of Transformation (2014) 7

Cost per Unit of Performance for Various Energy Storage Options 10000 H.P. capacitors H.P. flywheels Capital cost per unit energy - $/kWh output Distributed/d Li-ion L.D. flywheels Ni-Cd emand-side EV 100 0 Battery Na-S Zinc-air Lead-acid Grid-scale Flow Flywheel/cap L.D. capacitors acitor 100 PSH Therma CAES l Metal-air H 2 O heaters 10 300 100 300 10000 100 0 0 Capital cost per unit power - $/kW Sources: Electricity Storage Association, EPRI, Sandia National Laboratories, Ecofys 8

Gross Load (Peak) (6 weeks) Megawatts Hours 9

Net Load (Peak) (6 weeks) Megawatts Hours 10

Gross Load (Off-peak) (6 weeks) Megawatts Hours 11

Net Load (Off-peak) (6 weeks) Megawatts Hours 12

Business case: current example (PJM) Millions of US dollars 13

Balancing services markets 14

Fast response mkt is lucrative…but tiny Source: Electric Power Research Institute, 2010 15

Energy markets: typical view cap/VoLL peaker mid-merit baseload 16

Suite of actual balancing options Source: Brattle Group report to Texas Public Utilities Commission 17

Energy markets: the reality cap/VoLL action 4 action 3 action 2 action 1 peaker mid-merit baseload 18

VRE integration ≠ capacity 19

The California ISO “Duck Curve” 20

(It looks m ore like a m arbled godwit) 21

Guess What: Ducks Can Fly A duck in the water doesn’t look all that airworthy… …until you see it in flight! Our job is to straighten this duck out. 22

Our Starting Point: A California Utility’s Projected “Duck” 4,000 MW Peak Demand; 2,000 MW Minimum Demand; Currently 73% Load Factor; Max 1-hour ramp: 400 MW Forecast: 2,500 MW of wind and solar added 2012 – 2020; Predicted 63% Load Factor; Max 1-hour ramp: 550 MW 4000 3500 3000 2500 Total Load 2000 1500 Load Net of 1000 Wind/Solar 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 23

Ten Strategies To Align Loads to Resources (and Resources to Loads) with Illustrative Values for Each 1. Targeted energy 6. Increase operational flexibility efficiency of conventional resources 2. Orient solar panels 7. Concentrate demand charges into “ramping” hours 3. Use CSTP with heat storage 8. Deploy electricity storage in 4. TES: Manage targeted locations electric water heat 9. Implement aggressive demand 5. TES: Require large response programs A/C & refrigeration 10.Use inter-regional exchanges to incl ice storage of power Not every strategy will be applicable to every utility. 24

Strategy 1: Targeted Energy Efficiency Focus efforts on EE measures with afternoon peak orientation. 5% of total usage; 3:1 ratio between on- peak and off- peak savings. Kitchen lighting a good example Air conditioning may be a big opportunity 25

Strategy 2: Orient Solar Panels to the West Fixed-axis solar panels produce a more valuable output if oriented to the West. 100 MW shift out of AM into PM hours, out of ~700 total rooftop solar assumed . 26

Strategy 3: Use CSP with Storage in Place of Som e Solar PV Solar thermal energy is more expensive, but can be stored for a few hours at low cost. Substitute 100 MW of solar thermal for 100 MW of utility- scale PV, out of 1,500 MW of utility-scale solar total assumed. 27

Strategy 4: Therm al energy storage: Control Electric Water Heating Install grid control of electric water heating; Supercharge during low-cost hours. Illustrative utility has 9% electric water heating Gain control over 5% of the electric water heaters 300 MWh of load shifting. 28

Strategy 5: Therm al energy storage: Require 2-hour Storage On New AC Require new AC units over 5 tons to include at least 2 hours of storage, under grid control. Move 100 MWh of A/C load out of the 6 – 8 PM period into surplus production periods. 29

Strategy 6: Increase operational flexibility of conventional generation Older steam plants with night minimum loads and slow ramping are retrofitted to increase flexibility or are replaced/ repowered with generators with more flexibility. No graphic; assumed to be embedded in the 2020 forecast from the sample utility. 30

Strategy 7: Concentrate Dem and Charges Concentrate utility demand charges into the “ramping” hours; hourly real-time rates for large-volume customers. 5% of load moved out of the ramping hours with concentrate d demand charges. 31

Strategy 8 : Selectively Deploy Electricity Storage Selectively charge electric vehicle batteries; Add grid battery storage at strategic locations that help avoid T&D upgrade costs. Storage equal to 1% of total load added. 100 MW max discharge capacity 32

Strategy 9: Dem and Response Contract with customers to curtail/ defer use on as-needed basis when the ramp is steep. 3% curtailment of peak demand on high-ramp days. Currently ~8% at ISO-NE. 33

Strategy 10 : Inter-regional Power Exchanges Geographical diversity of loads, diversity of output from renewables, and diversity of reserves. Exchange 600 MWh per day from early to late evening using the existing inter- regional interties (Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and the Northwest) This duck is ready to spread its wings and fly. 34

Teaching the Duck to Fly Requesting Permission for Take-Off

How Did We Do? Pre-Strategy, without Solar/ Wind: 73% LF Pre-Strategy, with Solar/ Wind: 63% LF Post-Strategy, with Solar/ Wind: 8 3% LF Maxim um Hourly Ram p: 34 0 MW vs. 550 MW 36

About RAP The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) is a global, non-profit team of experts that focuses on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the power and natural gas sectors. RAP has deep expertise in regulatory and market policies that:  Promote economic efficiency  Protect the environment  Ensure system reliability  Allocate system benefits fairly among all consumers Learn more about RAP at www.raponline.org Michael Hogan m hogan@raponline.org +1 (6 0 3) 738 8 6 52 (m obile)

Business case: future example (CAISO) 38