Demand Management Options to Support VRE Grid Integration FP7 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demand Management Options to Support VRE Grid Integration

FP7 ADVANCE Workshop Utrecht University 21 January 2015 Michael Hogan

Senior Advisor

Phone: +32 2-894-9300 web: www.raponline.org rue de la Science 23 B - 1040 Brussels Belgium The Regulatory Assistance Project

A more flexible thermal plant mix needed

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Peak Mid-merit Baseload Peak Mid-merit Baseload

A more flexible thermal plant mix needed

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Source: G. Strbac, Imperial College London

Flexible generation is just one piece of the puzzle

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Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014

Flexible generation is just one piece of the puzzle

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Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014

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40% RES 30% CCS 30% nuclear 80% RES 10% CCS 10% nuclear 0% 20% 60% RES 20% CCS 20% nuclear 0% 20% 0% 20% Transmission & additional generation capacity requirements1 Pathways DSM Transmission Back-up and balancing RES curtailment2 % 3 2 2 1 2 2

Benefit of demand-side flexibility

Source: ECF, Roadmap 2050 (2010)

Benefit-cost ratios of different flexibility options

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Source: IEA, The Power of Transformation (2014)

8 100 300 100 300 10000 100 100 10000 10

CAES Therma l H2O heaters Metal-air Na-S Flow Lead-acid Ni-Cd EV Li-ion Zinc-air H.P. capacitors H.P. flywheels L.D. flywheels L.D. capacitors Distributed/d emand-side Battery Grid-scale Flywheel/cap acitor

Capital cost per unit energy - $/kWh output Capital cost per unit power - $/kW

Cost per Unit of Performance for Various Energy Storage Options

PSH

Sources: Electricity Storage Association, EPRI, Sandia National Laboratories, Ecofys

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Gross Load (Peak) (6 weeks) Megawatts Hours

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Net Load (Peak) (6 weeks) Megawatts Hours

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Gross Load (Off-peak) (6 weeks) Hours Megawatts

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Net Load (Off-peak) (6 weeks) Megawatts Hours

Business case: current example (PJM)

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Millions of US dollars

Balancing services markets

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Fast response mkt is lucrative…but tiny

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Source: Electric Power Research Institute, 2010

Energy markets: typical view

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baseload mid-merit peaker cap/VoLL

Suite of actual balancing options

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Source: Brattle Group report to Texas Public Utilities Commission

Energy markets: the reality

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baseload mid-merit cap/VoLL peaker action 4 action 3 action 2 action 1

VRE integration ≠ capacity

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The California ISO “Duck Curve”

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(It looks m ore like a m arbled godwit)

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Guess What: Ducks Can Fly

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A duck in the water doesn’t look all that airworthy… …until you see it in flight! Our job is to straighten this duck out.

Our Starting Point: A California Utility’s Projected “Duck”

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4,000 MW Peak Demand; 2,000 MW Minimum Demand; Currently 73% Load Factor; Max 1-hour ramp: 400 MW Forecast: 2,500 MW of wind and solar added 2012 – 2020; Predicted 63% Load Factor; Max 1-hour ramp: 550 MW

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Total Load Load Net of Wind/Solar

Ten Strategies To Align Loads to Resources (and Resources to Loads) with Illustrative Values for Each

• 1. Targeted energy

efficiency

• 2. Orient solar panels
• 3. Use CSTP with

heat storage

• 4. TES: Manage

electric water heat

• 5. TES: Require large

A/C & refrigeration to incl ice storage

• 6. Increase operational flexibility
• f conventional resources
• 7. Concentrate demand charges

into “ramping” hours

• 8. Deploy electricity storage in

targeted locations

• 9. Implement aggressive demand

response programs 10.Use inter-regional exchanges

• f power

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Not every strategy will be applicable to every utility.

Strategy 1: Targeted Energy Efficiency Focus efforts on EE measures with afternoon peak orientation.

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5% of total usage; 3:1 ratio between on- peak and off- peak savings. Kitchen lighting a good example Air conditioning may be a big

• pportunity

Strategy 2: Orient Solar Panels to the West Fixed-axis solar panels produce a more valuable output if oriented to the West.

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100 MW shift out

• f AM into PM

hours, out of ~700 total rooftop solar assumed.

Strategy 3: Use CSP with Storage in Place of Som e Solar PV Solar thermal energy is more expensive, but can be stored for a few hours at low cost.

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Substitute 100 MW

• f solar thermal for

100 MW of utility- scale PV, out of 1,500 MW of utility-scale solar total assumed.

Strategy 4: Therm al energy storage: Control Electric Water Heating Install grid control of electric water heating; Supercharge during low-cost hours.

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Illustrative utility has 9% electric water heating Gain control over 5% of the electric water heaters 300 MWh of load shifting.

Strategy 5: Therm al energy storage: Require 2-hour Storage On New AC Require new AC units over 5 tons to include at least 2 hours of storage, under grid control.

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Move 100 MWh of A/C load out of the 6 – 8 PM period into surplus production periods.

Strategy 6: Increase operational flexibility of conventional generation Older steam plants with night minimum loads and slow ramping are retrofitted to increase flexibility or are replaced/ repowered with generators with more flexibility. No graphic; assumed to be embedded in the 2020 forecast from the sample utility.

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Strategy 7: Concentrate Dem and Charges Concentrate utility demand charges into the “ramping” hours; hourly real-time rates for large-volume customers.

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5% of load moved out

• f the

ramping hours with concentrate d demand charges.

Strategy 8 : Selectively Deploy Electricity Storage

Selectively charge electric vehicle batteries; Add grid battery storage at strategic locations that help avoid T&D upgrade costs.

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Storage equal to 1%

• f total load

added. 100 MW max discharge capacity

Strategy 9: Dem and Response

Contract with customers to curtail/ defer use

• n as-needed basis when the ramp is steep.

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3% curtailment

• f peak

demand on high-ramp days. Currently ~8% at ISO-NE.

Strategy 10 : Inter-regional Power Exchanges

Geographical diversity of loads, diversity of output from renewables, and diversity of reserves.

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Exchange 600 MWh per day from early to late evening using the existing inter- regional interties (Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and the Northwest)

This duck is ready to spread its wings and fly.

Teaching the Duck to Fly

Requesting Permission for Take-Off

How Did We Do?

Pre-Strategy, without Solar/ Wind: 73% LF Pre-Strategy, with Solar/ Wind: 63% LF Post-Strategy, with Solar/ Wind: 8 3% LF

Maxim um Hourly Ram p: 34 0 MW vs. 550 MW

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About RAP

The Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP) is a global, non-profit team of experts that focuses on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the power and natural gas sectors. RAP has deep expertise in regulatory and market policies that:

• Promote economic efficiency
• Protect the environment
• Ensure system reliability
• Allocate system benefits fairly among all consumers

Learn more about RAP at www.raponline.org

Michael Hogan m hogan@raponline.org +1 (6 0 3) 738 8 6 52 (m obile)

Business case: future example (CAISO)

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