System and evolution System and evolution analysis of environment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
System and evolution System and evolution analysis of environment analysis of environment and climate forming and climate forming processes in Siberia processes in Siberia V. .I I . . Shishlov Shishlov, , Yu Yu. .I I . . Preis
V V. .I I . . Shishlov Shishlov, , Yu Yu. .I I . . Preis Preis, , V V. .A A. . Krutikov Krutikov Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RA Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS S
(turbulent exchanges, wave exchanges, a storm)
convektion in Northern Atlantic and outflow of cold waters)
etc.)
Cycles organization of a climate formation processes
An increase atmospheric humidity under influence of tidal forces. .
The expansion of a zone of a high pressure, aggravation of high-
altitude zone circulation and circulation and cyclogenesis cyclogenesis. .
The mechanism of change of atmospheric circulation under influence of nce of external forces, redistributions of the moment of a pulse betwee external forces, redistributions of the moment of a pulse between space n space bodies during orbital movements in a gravitation field of CGM. bodies during orbital movements in a gravitation field of CGM.
The planetary mechanism of redistribution of energy and direction of n of movement of air weights at interactions AAC and the connected movement of air weights at interactions AAC and the connected transformations thermal and baric fields. transformations thermal and baric fields.
n n
A mechanism of dynamic changes of a A mechanism of dynamic changes of a multiregime multiregime process of the weather process of the weather formation based on the reorganization of energy conversion proce formation based on the reorganization of energy conversion processes in sses in the surface ECS at change of a media properties and conditionall the surface ECS at change of a media properties and conditionally y reversible transformation of relations between elements. reversible transformation of relations between elements.
n n
A mechanism of change of energy conversion and energy A mechanism of change of energy conversion and energy-
mass transfer cycles at transformations of relations in the ocean cycles at transformations of relations in the ocean-
cryosphere-
atmosphere-
land system. Relations between Atmospheric Action Centers (AAC) have signific Relations between Atmospheric Action Centers (AAC) have significant ant influence on energy influence on energy-
mass transfer through the circulation mechanism.
n n
Global factors Global factors: : Intensive Intensive zone zone carry carry ВМ ВМ with with the the high high maintenance maintenance water water pair pair, , hotbed gases hotbed gases, , s strengthening trengthening of
cyclogenesis ( ( c cyclones yclones from from northwest northwest sector sector of
Atlantic, c , cyclones yclones from from Caspian Caspian sea sea, , Cyclones Cyclones from from Aral Aral sea sea) ) and and g growth rowth
cloudy formations formations during during the the cold cold period period of
year year. .
n n
Regional factors Regional factors: : change change the the surface surface albedo albedo ( ( pollution pollution of
snow cover cover), ), evaporation evaporation with with wetted wetted surfaces surfaces in in the the oil
area and and residential residential zones zones, , h heat eat i island sland ( ( tehnosfera tehnosfera), ), changing changing the the timing timing of
hydrological ice ice phenomena phenomena on
rivers, , Influence Influence of
river valleys valleys ( ( Tobol Tobol, , Irtysh Irtysh, , Ob Ob), ), water water basins basins ( ( hydrological and thermal hydrological and thermal power power station station) ) and and bogs bogs on
increase in in warming warming. .
Estimation of a regional climate changes on the basis Estimation of a regional climate changes on the basis
in phase space of estimated characteristics in phase space of estimated characteristics
n n
General feature for all General feature for all regions regions -
displacement
ensemble of last ensemble of last stages since 1978. stages since 1978.
n n
Feature of Feature of Tobolsk Tobolsk, , Khanty Khanty-
Mansiysk, , Kolpashevo Kolpashevo – – area area expansion of expansion of conditions ensemble. conditions ensemble.
Estimation Estimation of characteristics and limits of temperature
variability for variability for Tobolsk Tobolsk
Estimation of variability limits of average annual Estimation of variability limits of average annual temperature for Siberia regions temperature for Siberia regions
Changes trajectories and areas of the forest-climate states ensembles zone of Siberia
Oscillation of regional climates of Siberia Oscillation of regional climates of Siberia
Figure 7. Mapping of an ensemble of CS states single directed changes were in all
CS of all regions made a cycle of transition and return to the initial state (1963-1966 yrs). The profile (Π) of space distribution of estimation functions was conserved during all
characteristic change was 56 % per year in Tomsk, 68% in Hanty-Mansiysk. Amplitude of oscillation was 154% . A single cycle of climatic mesoscale processes in the single CS of West Siberia.
Estimation of regional climatic changes tendencies in Estimation of regional climatic changes tendencies in Western Siberia Western Siberia
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
10 20
Tw, oC Ts, oC
з з з з з з од од з з з з з рк рк к к к г рк г к рк г г г г г
Identification results of temperature changes for conditions ens Identification results of temperature changes for conditions ensemble of Omsk climate. ( emble of Omsk climate. (Т Тs s -
average temperature for the V temperature for the V-
IX months. Т Тw w -
average temperature for the X-
IV months)
n n
Variability of conditions has increased; Variability of conditions has increased;
n n
Continentality Continentality ( (К К) has decreased at preservation of sharply continental ) has decreased at preservation of sharply continental conditions conditions ( (РК РК) ) with frosty winter and droughty ( with frosty winter and droughty (З З) in the summer; ) in the summer;
n n
The tendency of growth of number of warm conditions of the cold The tendency of growth of number of warm conditions of the cold period of period of year with plentiful deposits ( year with plentiful deposits (cyclogenesis cyclogenesis, advection of heat) is established; , advection of heat) is established;
n n
The number of humid The number of humid ( (Г Г) annual conditions and intensive hydrological cycle ) annual conditions and intensive hydrological cycle has increased. has increased.
n n
Estimations of limits of variability of temperatures and numbers Estimations of limits of variability of temperatures and numbers of typical
seasonal conditions are determined in view of the established te seasonal conditions are determined in view of the established tendencies of ndencies of changes of a rhythm and frequency of repeatability of conditions changes of a rhythm and frequency of repeatability of conditions КС КС
n n
Tendencies of decrease Tendencies of decrease in frequency of repeatability of extreme frosty in frequency of repeatability of extreme frosty conditions (in Barnaul with 0,3 up to 0,05 year conditions (in Barnaul with 0,3 up to 0,05 year -
1, I n Tobolsk Tobolsk 0,6 up to 0,6 up to 0,16 year 0,16 year -
1), increases and stabilization of frequency of repeatability poorly frosty (with thawing weather) conditions ((in Barnaul wit poorly frosty (with thawing weather) conditions ((in Barnaul with 0,4 up to h 0,4 up to 0,65 year 0,65 year -
1, I n Tobolsk Tobolsk 0,21 up to 0,4 year 0,21 up to 0,4 year -
1) and warm conditions (t> + 5C) since October, and also the tendency of fluctuation of cond + 5C) since October, and also the tendency of fluctuation of conditions of itions of May in May in Tobolsk Tobolsk and conditions of November in Barnaul are established. and conditions of November in Barnaul are established.
n n
Average duration of the vegetative period last decade for 8 Average duration of the vegetative period last decade for 8 days is higher, and the sum of active temperatures on 8 % days is higher, and the sum of active temperatures on 8 % is more, in comparison with the last decade. is more, in comparison with the last decade.
n n
Terms of transition of daily average temperature through Terms of transition of daily average temperature through + 10 + 10 оС оС were displaced for 7 days. were displaced for 7 days.
n n
Reduction of warm deficit is caused by rise of air Reduction of warm deficit is caused by rise of air temperature temperature, , by by reduction reduction of
the cold cold period period duration duration of
year year in in a a forest forest -
steppe zone zone ( ( Om sk Om sk) ) for for 15 15-
22 days days, , in a in a subzone subzone of
a southern southern taiga taiga ( ( Tomsk Tomsk) ) for for 13 13-
17 days days, , in a in a subzone subzone of northern taiga
( Khanty Khanty-
Mansiysk) ) for for 8 8-
12 days days and and by by increase increase in in duration duration of
the without without frost frost y period y period. .
1. 1.
Transformations of weather forming regimes are Transformations of weather forming regimes are conjugate with pressure system transformations. conjugate with pressure system transformations.
2. 2.
Set of atmosphere weather forming factors in Set of atmosphere weather forming factors in conjunction with factors of the active layer of the conjunction with factors of the active layer of the Earth Earth’ ’s surface determines a weather forming regime s surface determines a weather forming regime and a weather processes interaction in the near and a weather processes interaction in the near-
surface atmosphere.
3. 3.
Intensification of the zonal air mass transfer Intensification of the zonal air mass transfer increases cyclones activity. I t changes variability and increases cyclones activity. I t changes variability and duration of transitional processes. All this changes duration of transitional processes. All this changes cause decrease winter length and alter year cause decrease winter length and alter year estimation characteristics of CS. estimation characteristics of CS.
4. 4.
At some relations between Atmospheric Centers At some relations between Atmospheric Centers enlarged zonal circulation and cyclones activity form enlarged zonal circulation and cyclones activity form
returns to thaws. It increases year temperature also. returns to thaws. It increases year temperature also.
Intensive cyclone activity is typical for moderate Intensive cyclone activity is typical for moderate and high latitudes at intensive zonal air mass and high latitudes at intensive zonal air mass transfer and circulation transformation. Features transfer and circulation transformation. Features
and dynamics of synoptic vortexes are defined and dynamics of synoptic vortexes are defined by the whole system of relations of baric by the whole system of relations of baric
pressure ridges shifts the polar front to South and constrict the area of cyclones activity. and constrict the area of cyclones activity. Cyclones movement, air mass flows and clouds Cyclones movement, air mass flows and clouds migration generates weather forming factors, migration generates weather forming factors, which cause conjugate transformations of which cause conjugate transformations of weather forming regimes. weather forming regimes.
Mean day air temperature in some cities of West Siberia, Mean day air temperature in some cities of West Siberia, average temperature within 68 average temperature within 68º º E, 53 E, 53º º N, 90 N, 90º º E, 62 E, 62º º N N rectangle rectangle
13.41 7.1 5.9 13.6 11.4 14.2 14.1 15.2 ∆T
0.8 T 01.01.2002
T 27.12.2001 2.22
0.3
4.2
10.2 6.2 ∆T 5.95
6.6 2.7 13.4 11.6 T 26.04.1999 3.73 0.3
5.1 2.4 5.2 3.2 5.4 T 05.04.1999 14.96 5.6 5.8 10.1 12.3 13.5 12.9 15.8 ∆T
1.7 2.9 2.4 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.2 T 23.03.1995
T 15.03.1995 7.27
11.4 3.7 10.9 5.2 8.7 ∆T 2.23
1.8 1.6 2.7 3.8 5.7 T 15.11.2001
T 10.11.2001 4.28 4.2 4.2 4.9 4.9 8.1 2.6 2.1 ∆T 3.66 1.4 2.3 3.3 4 3.2 5 3.8 T 5.11.1999
2.4 1.7 T 28.10.1999 Parameter (oC) Area average Surgut Hanty-Mansijsk Kolpashevo Tara Tomsk Omsk Barnaul Weather station
air temperature.
Evolutionary trajectories are pass through singular points, which corresponds to change from winter to summer. All three trajectories have jogs at warming in the 40s-50s, oscillation at cooling in the 60s, and directional temperature rise with variations, which corresponds to regional warming features in the 80s-90s. Regional changes of the temperature regime in Krasnoyarsk at irreversible changes of intersystem relations in ECS after flooding of Krasnoyarsk hydroelectric power station reservoir were reflected in the evolutional trajectories. Trajectories of Omsk and Krasnoyarsk branched off.
Regional changes of the tem perature regim e in Krasnoyarsk
Epicentre of the earthquake in the region of Altai republic Kosh-Agach (49.8 N.L., 88.3 E.L.). Magnitude earthquake in the epicenter ML = 7.5 (ML= lg(Amax)) intensive Io = 9-10
sides
Mars
gravitational effects of Mars
Altai-Sayan compression zone in the south of the Eurasian lithosphere plates Features of the situation
The impact of the earthquake
2003,6 2003,7 2003,8
0,000000 0,000002 0,000004 0,000006
Y Axis Title X Axis Title E
2003,6 2003,7 2003,8Y Axis Title X Axis Title
Concurrence of a sign on the Moon tidal force acceleration to acceleration of the Mars gravitation force at 27.09.2003. Stretching changed the crush
Time Fa Time Fп
Features of the planets interaction dynam ics
n n
Distribution Distribution of
annual ( ( seasonal seasonal) ) meteo meteo characteristics characteristics on
territory of
Siberia in in the the allocated allocated area area with with geographical geographical coordinates coordinates 60 60° ° -
120° ° E.L. E.L. 52 52° ° -
67° ° N.L N.L. . is is described described by by a a matrix matrix in in corresponding corresponding squares squares of
a geographical geographical grid grid. .
n n
Stage Stage 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 8 – – 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 4 yy yy. .
М45-Bratsk М53-Barnaul 55 М55 М53 М37-Aldan М42-Omsk 58° М45
М42 >0 М33-Kolpashevo М34-Eniseisk 60° М37
М34 М33 М31 МР = М21-Khanty-Mansiysk М31-Tobolsk 65° М21 М11-Salekhard М13-Turukhansk 67° N.L. М13
М11 E.L. 120° 100° 80° 60°
Stage Stage 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 – – 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 6 yy yy. .
М45-Bratsk М53-Barnaul 55 М55 М53 М37-Aldan М42-Omsk 58° М45
М42 >0 М33-Kolpashevo М34-Eniseisk 60° М37
М34 М33 М31 МР = М21-Khanty-Mansiysk М31-Tobolsk 65° М21 М11-Salekhard М13-Turukhansk 67° N.L. М13
М11 E.L. 120° 100° 80° 60° 0,3 1,1
1,3
М2006 =
Annual temperatures matrix for Siberian regions for 2006
An increase atmospheric humidity under influence of tidal forces. forces.
The expansion of a zone of a high pressure, aggravation of high high-
altitude zone circulation and cyclogenesis cyclogenesis. .
The mechanism of change of atmospheric circulation under influence of external forces. influence of external forces.
A mechanism of change of energy conversion and energy-
mass transfer cycles at transformations of relations in the
cryosphere-
atmosphere-
land system.
n n
The The warming warming climate climate Siberia Siberia hamper hamper regional regional special special factors factors: :
sea ea ice ice extent extent sector sector Siberian Siberian Arctic Arctic; ;
permafrost;
topography ( (plateau plateau, , Altai Altai, , Sayan Sayan) ), ,
Features circulation circulation of
the atmosphere atmosphere: : the the winter winter season season AAC AAC ( (anticyclone anticyclone), ), baric ridges baric ridges of
high pressure pressure, , hollows hollows, , mobile mobile vortices vortices, , advection advection cold cold air air masses masses from from the the Arctic Arctic and from and from north north-
eastern region region of
Siberia. .
n n
Two mechanisms, which define dynamic properties of the Two mechanisms, which define dynamic properties of the continental climate system, were discovered. continental climate system, were discovered.
n n
A mechanism of dynamic changes of a A mechanism of dynamic changes of a multiregime multiregime process of the process of the weather formation based on the reorganization of energy weather formation based on the reorganization of energy conversion processes in the surface ECS at change of a media conversion processes in the surface ECS at change of a media properties and conditionally reversible transformation of relati properties and conditionally reversible transformation of relations
between elements. between elements.
n n
A mechanism of change of energy conversion and energy A mechanism of change of energy conversion and energy-
mass transfer cycles at transformations of relations in the ocean transfer cycles at transformations of relations in the ocean-
cryosphere-
atm osphere-
land system. Relations between Atmospheric Action Centers (AAC) have signific Relations between Atmospheric Action Centers (AAC) have significant ant influence on energy influence on energy-
mass transfer through the circulation mechanism. mechanism. At conjugate work of two mechanisms, during transformation of At conjugate work of two mechanisms, during transformation of relations in the ocean relations in the ocean-
cryosphere-
atm osphere-
land system , the course of evolution of ECS, energy mass transfer and climate course of evolution of ECS, energy mass transfer and climate change depend on type of conditionally reversible and on course change depend on type of conditionally reversible and on course of
natural changes of AAC relations. Changes of AAC relations affec natural changes of AAC relations. Changes of AAC relations affect t the zonal air mass transfer activity and cyclone activity. the zonal air mass transfer activity and cyclone activity.
Variability of conditions of summ er seasons is in details Variability of conditions of summ er seasons is in details
number of summer seasons with high potential of climatic number of summer seasons with high potential of climatic resources resources ( ( PCR PCR) ) and the tendency of growth of number of and the tendency of growth of number of conditions with deficiency of deposits (droughts) in southern conditions with deficiency of deposits (droughts) in southern regions of Siberia. regions of Siberia.
Вековой ход http://hpiers.obspm.fr/eop-pc/index.html
Under the influence of gravitational forces Sun and planets orbit and inclination of the axis of rotation of the Earth and its position in orbit [ 1] regarding barycenter experiencing different short periodic
Shifts in latitudes pole nutation cause variations illuminated surface area and number of solar energy absorbed by various parts of the Earth's surface
1900
Features of interseason movements of the poles (in winter in the American sector, in the summer - in Greenland) at the present stage of reinforcing water between the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. The increase of energy mass exchange between the ocean and atmosphere, cyclogenesis in temperate latitudes and zonal circulation of air masses intensifies energy mass exchange between the ocean and the mainland
In the development of a bog send on a stage of oligotrophenization and remain at a stage of active formation of bogs (by the estimations showing excess of deposition CO2 above its issue) for last centuries.