Swedbank June 2013 Table of contents 1. Financial performance 3 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Swedbank June 2013 Table of contents 1. Financial performance 3 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Swedbank June 2013 Table of contents 1. Financial performance 3 2. Liquidity and funding 15 3. Cover pool data 27 4. Swedish economy 33 5. Swedish housing and mortgage market 39 6. Appendix 47 2 1. Financial performance 3


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SLIDE 1

Swedbank

June 2013

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SLIDE 2

2

Table of contents

1. Financial performance 3 2. Liquidity and funding 15 3. Cover pool data 27 4. Swedish economy 33 5. Swedish housing and mortgage market 39 6. Appendix 47

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SLIDE 3
  • 1. Financial performance

3

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SLIDE 4
  • Stable NII

– Repricing – Funding costs – Lower deposit margins

  • Net gains and losses
  • ne-off gain in Q4 12
  • Lower costs
  • Continued good asset quality
  • Ukraine and Russia discontinued
  • perations

Robust earnings

4

Financial performance - Group results

SEKm Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 ▲Q/Q ▲Y/Y Net interest income 4 895 5 346 5 353 7 458 Net commission income 2 398 2 502 2 388

  • 114
  • 10

Net gains and losses 979 830 557

  • 273
  • 422

Total income 9 072 9 437 9 082

  • 355

10 Total expenses 4 327 4 142 4 043

  • 99
  • 284

Profit before impairments 4 745 5 295 5 039

  • 256

294 Impairment of tangible assets 40 141 85

  • 56

45 Credit impairments

  • 96
  • 76

60 136

  • 156

Tax 1 108 786 976 190

  • 132

Profit from continued ops. 3 693 4 427 3 918

  • 509

225 Profit from discontinued ops.

  • 279
  • 174
  • 390
  • 216
  • 111

Profit for the period 3 410 4 252 3 525

  • 727

115 Return on equity, % 14.1 16.9 13.8 ROE continuing operations, % 15.3 17.5 15.3 Cost/income ratio 0.48 0.44 0.45

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

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SLIDE 5

Stable results

  • Stable NII
  • Solid asset quality
  • New organisation

5

Financial performance - Retail

SEKm Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 ▲ Q/Q ▲ Y/Y Net interest income 3 371 3 353 3 332

  • 21
  • 39

Net commissions 1 538 1 554 1 589 35 51 Total income 5 346 5 255 5 377 122 31 Total expenses 2 429 2 474 2 406

  • 68
  • 23

Profit before impairments 2 917 2 781 2 971 190 54 Credit impairments 21 91 55

  • 36

34 ROE, % 28.4 28.0 27.9 C/I ratio 0.45 0.47 0.45

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

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SLIDE 6

Good return

  • Stable NII
  • Low activity in Corporate Finance
  • Structural challenges in Equities
  • Solid credit quality

6

Financial performance - Large Corporates & Institutions

SEKm Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 ▲ Q/Q ▲ Y/Y Net interest income 728 795 783

  • 12

55 Net commissions 485 536 419

  • 117
  • 66

Total income 2 071 1 857 1 814

  • 43
  • 257

Expenses excl variable staff costs 661 668 646

  • 22
  • 15

Variable staff costs 105 75 88 13

  • 17

Profit before impairments 1 305 1 114 1 080

  • 34
  • 225

Credit impairments 17 162 74

  • 88

57 ROE, % 18.9 18.3 16.7 C/I ratio 0.37 0.40 0.40

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

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SLIDE 7

Focus on costs

  • Stable NII in local currency
  • Increased customer activity
  • Recoveries
  • Increased efficiency in focus

7

Financial performance - Baltic Banking

SEKm Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 ▲ Q/Q ▲ Y/Y Net interest income 910 760 742

  • 18
  • 168

Net commissions 386 366 388 22 2 Total income 1 468 1 289 1 281

  • 8
  • 187

Total expenses 629 633 586

  • 47
  • 43

Profit before impairments 839 656 695 39

  • 144

Credit impairments

  • 134
  • 329
  • 70
  • 259
  • 64

ROE, % 14.6 13.3 12.6 C/I ratio 0.43 0.49 0.46

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

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SLIDE 8

Income distribution Q1 2013

8

Financial performance – Income

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

Lending and deposits 64% Treasury, Trading and Capital Markets 6% Asset Management 11% Payment, Cards 8% Insurance 3% Share of P&L

  • f associates

2% Other 6% Sweden 79% Estonia 5% Latvia 4% Lithuania 4% Other 8%

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SLIDE 9

Continued strengthening capital position

  • 13-15% CET1
  • CRD/CRR IV – less impact
  • IRB Advanced
  • Waiting for regulatory clarity

9

Financial performance - Capital situation

* As of 2012 incl. IAS 19 16.7 17.3 15.4 16.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 13

Common Tier 1 capital ratio

Basel 2* Basel 3

15.45% 0.14% 0.14% 0.24% 0.55%

  • 0.13

16.38% Q4 2012 Profit Q1 IAS 19 RWA change Q1 SME & CVA (Basel 3) Other Basel 3 changes Q1 2013

Changes in B3 CET1 ratio Q4-Q1

Increase Decrease

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SLIDE 10

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Proposed 2013 Proposed 2015 Supplemental capital (Equity, AT1 and/or T2), 1.5% + 2.0% Countercyclical buffer (Equity), 0-2.5% Capital conservation buffer (Equity can be used in stressed scenario), 2.5% Swedish SiFi buffer (Equity), 3% (2013), 5% (2015)

  • Min. requirement (Equity), 4.5%

Swedish capital requirement proposal

  • Delayed, earliest implementation end of 2013

10

Source: The Ministry of Finance, the Riksbank and the Swedish FSA

13.5-16% 12% 10% 15.5-18% Proposal 2013 Proposal 2015

Financial performance - Capital situation

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SLIDE 11

Risk weights – do they matter?

  • Transparency
  • Regulatory requirement
  • Tool for ranking risk
  • No steering tool – emphasis on stress tests instead

─ Internal capital allocation process

11

0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 2009 2010 2011 2012

Loan loss ratio corporate portfolio

Swedbank, Sweden Handelsbanken 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Swedbank Sweden total IRB Handelsbanken total IRB Swedbank Sweden corporate IRB Handelsbanken corporate IRB

Average risk weight corporate exposure class

2009 2010 2011 2012

,Sweden

s

Financial performance - Capital situation

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SLIDE 12

Strong credit quality

  • Continued high credit quality in Sweden
  • Slower net recoveries in

Baltic Banking

  • Exiting Russia and Ukraine

12

Financial performance – Asset quality

Credit impairments, SEKm Q1 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Retail 21 91 55 Large Corporates & Institutions 17 162 74 Baltic Banking

  • 134
  • 329
  • 70

Estonia

  • 78
  • 242
  • 54

Latvia

  • 21

86 4 Lithuania

  • 35
  • 173
  • 20

Swedbank Group

  • 96
  • 76

60

31.7 10.3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13* SEKbn

Impaired loans

* Russia and Ukraine reported as discontinued operations.

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SLIDE 13

Swedish household loans (90% mortgages) Shipping and offshore, Transportation Manufacturing Other corporate lending Latvian lending Other property management Residential properties Agriculture and forestry Hotels and restaurants, Retail 64% 12% 4% 3% 8% Lithuanian lending 2% 6% Estonian

Asset portfolios – low risk

13

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31 2013

Financial performance – Asset quality

Tenant owner associations

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SLIDE 14

Rating strategy – same level as the best rated Nordic banks

14

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

Short Long Short Long BFSR* Short Long Swedbank A-1 A+ P-1 A2 C- F1 A+ Swedbank Mortgage A-1 A+ P-1 A2 Covered bonds AAA Aaa

* Bank Financial Strength Rating

S&P Fitch Moody's

Financial performance – Credit ratings

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SLIDE 15
  • 2. Liquidity and funding

15

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SLIDE 16

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400

Q1 2013

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400

Q1 2013

Core balance sheet* structure

16

Liquidity and funding

CEE lending Estonia Other corporate lending, Sweden &

  • ther Nordic countries

Other private, Sweden Swedish mortgage loans Senior Covered bonds Deposits CET1

  • Suppl. cap

Government guaranteed debt

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013

Assets Liabilities

SEKbn SEKbn * Simplified balance sheet

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SLIDE 17

Wholesale funding strategy

  • Main internal liquidity measure is survival horizon (accumulated cash-flows)
  • Covered bonds less volatile than senior unsecured debt
  • Secure presence in senior unsecured debt markets

– OC level – Liquidity reserve – Structural subordination

17

Liquidity and funding

Source: Swedbank, Dec 31, 2012

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SLIDE 18

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012

Deposits and retail bonds (LHS) Equities (LHS) Pension savings and mutual funds (LHS) Other financial assets (LHS) Total financial assets (RHS) 18

Covered bond strategy

Swedish households’ financial assets

Source: Statistics Sweden “Hushållens ställning“, Mar 2013

Liquidity and funding

Maturity, years

EUR/USD SEK 150-200bn Other* SEK 50-85bn Sweden SEK 300-375bn <5Y 3-7Y >7Y

SEKbn

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SLIDE 19
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0%

  • 5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% -50%

OC, Q113 20 40 60 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019- Senior unsecured debt

Senior unsecured debt strategy

19

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013, nominal amounts

  • Limited need given Swedbank’s balance sheet structure
  • Secure OC
  • Fund liquidity reserves

Senior unsecured debt maturity profile

SEKbn Over-collateralisation House price drop

House price sensitivity of the cover pool Liquidity and funding

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SLIDE 20

20 40 60 80 100 120 Covered bonds Senior unsecured

Lower funding needs

  • LCR 139% (Swedish FSA definition FFFS 2012:6)
  • NSFR 93%
  • SEK 120bn in funding plan 2013 to meet total maturing debt FY 2013 of SEK 86bn of

which SEK 46bn for the remainder of 2013

20

Liquidity and funding Term funding issuance – completed and planned

SEKbn Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013, nominal amounts

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SLIDE 21

10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000

Domestic CP ECP/CD USCP Yankee CD French CD Q4 12 Q1 13

10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000

Domestic CB Euro CB USD CB (144A) Other CB Senior unsecured FY 2012 Q1 13

Conservative funding plan

21

Long-term debt issued

  • Issued SEK 40bn of term-funding in Q1
  • Term funding plan in 2013 of SEK 120bn, full-year maturities of SEK 86bn

Liquidity and funding

Outstanding short-term debt

SEKm SEKm Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013, nominal amounts

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SLIDE 22

Liquidity reserve

22

1 95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q3 2013 are rated AAA

According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association

2 84% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers’ Association except

from that they are held outside the Treasury department.

3 82% of the additional assets are rated AAA

Liquidity and funding

Source: Swedbank Fact book, Mar 31, 2013

Additional liquid assets, Group2, 3 56 472

SEKm

Cash and holdings in central banks 210 251 Deposits in other banks available overnight 1 290 Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks 27 751 Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or public sector entities 378 Covered bonds 58 284

  • Issued by other institutions

58 284

  • Own issued

Securities issued by non-financial corporates Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds) 2 532 Other Total1 300 486

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SLIDE 23

SEKbn Days forw ard

50 100 150 200 250 300 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 365

Prolonged survival horizon

23

Liquidity and funding

SEKbn

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

Days forward

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SLIDE 24

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Next 12-month term funding maturities CP / CDs and net interbank funding, SEKm

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Additional pledgeable and/or liquid assets Liquidity reserve, securities Liquidity reserve, central bank deposits, SEKm

Conservative liquidity levels

  • Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management
  • More than 12 months pre-funded

24

SEKbn

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

Liquidity and funding

1 As defined by the Swedish Bankers’ Association

1 1

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SLIDE 25

Asset encumbrance

25

Liquidity and funding

Source: Swedbank Facts Q1 2013

1) Repoed securities on balance sheet. 2) Collateral posted under CSA agreements, gross (3-year, SEKm, High: 21 572, Low : 10 945, Average: 13 975). 3) Of w hich accrued interest of assets in the cover pool, SEK 2 389m as of Q1 2013 4) Collateral pledged in securities lending activities and w ith exchanges 5) Reversed repos are included. 6) All type of securities, including securities non pledgeable at central banks, of w hich 80% are rated AAA, 2% are rated below A- and 8% are not rated. 7) Of w hich accrued interest of assets in the cover pool

  • vercollateralisation, SEK 831m as of Q1 2013

8) Type of loans; Residential 84.3%, Forestry & Agriculture 15.4%, Commercial 0.3%. Encumbered assets - distribution by type of liability (row) and asset (column) SEKm Government debt instruments Central banks and supranational debt instruments Covered bonds Debt instruments issued by credit institutions Securities issued by corporate and

  • ther issuers

ABS Mortgage loans Cash Total Central bank funding Intraday settlement 1 028 10 772 11 800 Repurchase agreements 1) 18 448 12 765 31 213 Derivatives 2) 74 1 949 13 125 15 148 Covered bonds 3) 514 795 514 795 Other 4) 736 284 1 020 Total 19 550 25 486 736 514 795 13 409 573 976 Financial assets pledged for insurance policy holders 109 813 Unencumbered assets - additional assets available for secured funding SEKm Government debt instruments Central banks and supranational debt instruments Covered bonds Debt instruments issued by credit institutions Securities issued by corporate and

  • ther issuers

ABS Mortgage loans Cash Total Securities 5, 6) 30 948 11 213 73 812 12 671 8 238 984 137 866 Cover pool over- collateralisation 7) 192 782 192 782 Cover pool eligible assets 8) 12 031 12 031 Total 30 948 11 213 73 812 12 671 8 238 984 204 813 342 679 Total assets 1 917 227

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SLIDE 26

26

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SLIDE 27
  • 3. Cover pool data

27

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SLIDE 28

28

Rating, S&P / Moody’s AAA / Aaa Total pool size SEK 704.3bn Geographic distribution Sweden 100% Current OC-level 37.0% Weighted average seasoning 2 63 months Average LTV 3, 4 – WA LTV on property level (Max LTV) 58% Non-performing loans 5 None Fixed /Floating interest loans 6 – Fixed 44% – Floating 56% Repayment structure 7 – Amortising 44% – Interest only 56% Average loan size SEK 447 280 Number of loans outstanding 1 574 581 Number of borrowers 1 132 671 Number of properties 745 558 Dynamic pool Yes

1 As per Mar 31, 2013 2 Public sector loans not included

3 Index valuation as per Mar 31, 2013 4 Maximum LTV: Residential 75%, Commercial 60%, Forest and Agriculture 70% 5 Past due loans > 60 days are not eligible for the cover pool 6 Floating interest loans < 365 days 7 Property level of cover pool

Cover pool data1

Source: Swedbank Fact book, Mar 31, 2013

Swedbank’s cover pool

Swedbank is a labeled issuer of the ECBC Covered Bond Label Foundation (www.coveredbondlabel.com )

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SLIDE 29

Cover pool data

29

Swedbank’s cover pool

Source: Swedbank, Facts, Mar 31, 2013 Geographical distribution - Sweden 100%

Q1 % 2013 North 6.7 Norrbotten county (BD) 1.5 Västerbotten county (AC) 2.4 Västernorrland county (Y) 1.6 Jämtland county (Z) 1.3 Middle (including Stockholm) 43.9 Dalarna county (W) 2.3 Gävleborg county (X) 2.2 Värmland county (S) 2.2 Örebro county (T) 2.6 Västmanland county (U) 2.7 Uppsala county ( C) 4.0 Södermanland county (D) 2.7 Stockholm county (including Stockholm) (AB) 25.2 South (including Göteborg and Malmö) 49.4 Västra götaland county (Including Göteborg) (O) 17.4 Östergötland county (E) 4.1 Jönköping county (F) 3.7 Halland county (N) 3.7 Kronoberg county (G) 2.3 Kalmar county (H) 3.4 Skåne county (including Malmö) (M) 12.5 Blekinge county (K) 1.8 Gotland county (I) 0.6 100.0

Type of loans %

Residentials 91.0

  • f w hich Single-family housing

60.6

  • f w hich Tenant ow ner rights

16.2

  • f w hich Tenant ow ner association

9.8

  • f w hich Multi-family housing

4.5 Public 1.4 Commercial 0.3 Forest & Agricultural 7.3 100.0

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SLIDE 30

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 00-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-75 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 00-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-75

Cover pool loan-to-value distribution

30

Swedbank’s cover pool

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013

  • Weighted average LTV 58%

LTV distribution per property1 LTV distribution by volume1, 2

1 Public loans of 1.4% of the cover pool are excluded as they are either guaranteed by a Swedish municipality or the

government and have therefore no LTV assigned to them. 2 LTV distribution as defined by the Association of Swedish Covered Bond Issuers (www.ascb.se)

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SLIDE 31
  • 0.10%

0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% Residential Forest & Agriculture

31

Source: Swedbank Mar 31 2013

  • Total accumulated Swedish mortgage loan losses since 1982 of SEK 7.4bn (size of

total loan book SEK 746bn)

– Main part incurred during the years of 1992 and 1993 – Around 20% in the private segment

Insignificant credit loan losses in Swedbank Mortgage

Financial performance – asset quality Credit impairments, Swedbank Mortgage

%

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SLIDE 32

32

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SLIDE 33
  • 4. Swedish economy

33

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SLIDE 34

A balance sheet in favourable condition

  • Sweden’s financial assets continue to exceed its liabilities

34

Swedish economy

Source: OECD Economic outlook 92 (table 33), Dec 18, 2012

  • 40
  • 20

20 40 60 80 100 120 2011 2012F 2013F

General government net financial liabilities

% of nominal GDP

slide-35
SLIDE 35

35

A budget in balance

Swedish economy

Source: OECD Economic outlook 92 table 27, Dec 18, 2012

Budget balance as a percentage of GDP

  • Budget framework since early 1990’s – to stabilize and achieve long-term sustainability

in the public finances

– Mandatory public sector excess savings target of 1% of GDP on average over a business cycle – Mandatory ceiling for the state and pension system expenses (3 years ahead) Swedish historic budget balance as a percentage

  • f GDP
  • 12
  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 2010 2011 2012F 2013F

  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F

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SLIDE 36

36

Savings

Swedish economy

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 92, table 23, Dec 18 2012

Household saving rates % of disposable income

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F Sweden Germany Norway US Finland Denmark

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SLIDE 37

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 13

20 40 60 80 100 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013F Euro area France United Kingdom Germany Denmark Sweden

  • Kingdom of Sweden rated Aaa/AAA/AAA
  • GDP growth 1.7% (Q1 13 Y/Y)
  • CPI/CPIF -0.5% / 0.5% (Apr 13 Y/Y)

37

Continued strong fiscal position

Source: OECD Economic outlook 92 table 61, Dec 18, 2012

Swedish government debt

Swedish economy

SEKbn

Maastricht definition* of general government gross public debt

as a percentage of nominal GDP

Source: Statistics Sweden and National Debt Office Source: Swedish National Debt Office, Apr 2013

*General government gross debt according to the convergence criteria set out in the Maastricht Treaty comprises currency, bills and short- term bonds, other short- term loans and other medium- and long- term loans and bonds, defined according to ESA 95.

  • Unemployment 8.7% (Apr 13 Y/Y)
  • Debt to GDP 32% (Dec 12)
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SLIDE 38

20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Import Export

Exports – key factor for growth

38

Swedish economy

Source: Statistics Sweden, Mar, 2013

Top 10 export countries, Feb 2013, % Exports and imports trend per month, SEKm

Current prices

Data up to and including Feb 2013

Current account balance as % of GDP

Source: OECD – Economic outlook 92, table 51, Dec 18, 2012

  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 12 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F

Sweden Germany Denmark Italy Finland France United States United Kingdom Canada

2 4 6 8 10 12

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SLIDE 39
  • 5. Swedish housing and mortgage market

39

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SLIDE 40

Swedish mortgage market

  • No securitisation (on balance sheet), no sub-prime market, no 3rd party origination, restricted buy-

to-let market

  • 70% home ownership1
  • Rental market is regulated
  • Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se)

– Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc

  • Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest

rate

  • Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse)
  • Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system

40

Swedish housing and mortgage market

1 Source: Boverket, 2011

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SLIDE 41

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Annual percentage change

Pace of household borrowing declines

  • House prices stabilize
  • Credit growth abates
  • LTV development impacted by changed origination standards

41

House-price development (2007=100) Household borrowing growth

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 HOXSWE HOXFLATSWE HOXHOUSESWE

Source: Swedbank, Statistics Sweden and Valueguard (HOXSWE= Total, HOXFLATSWE= Tenant owner rights, HOUXHOUSESWE= Single family houses)

%

Swedish housing and mortgage market

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Real estate prices – Sweden 12 months development

42

Swedish housing and mortgage market

Single-family homes1 Tenant-owner rights2 Combined3 12M Δ 12M Δ 12M Δ

Apr/12

  • 2%

2%

  • 1%

May/12

  • 2%

3%

  • 1%

Jun/12

  • 1%

4% 0% Jul/12 0% 4% 1% Aug/12 2% 4% 3% Sep/12 2% 5% 3% Oct/12 1% 6% 3% Nov/12 3% 7% 4% Dec/12 4% 7% 6% Jan/13 3% 7% 5% Feb/13 4% 7% 5% Mar/13 3% 7% 5%

Source: Valuegard www.valuegard.se (Based on data from Mäklarstatistik), 1 HOXHOUSESWE, 2 HOXFLATSWE, 3 HOXSWE

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SLIDE 43

Debt servicing ability of the households will remain good

43

Swedish housing and mortgage market Swedish household financial assets and liabilities to disposable income

Source: Riksbanks’ financial stability report 12:2. Nov 2012, chart 3:10.

%

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 71 74 77 90 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 Total wealth Real wealth Liquid wealth Debts

  • Note. Liquid wealth refers mainly to cash, bank deposits, bonds and shares. Own financial saving is total saving excluding collective and real saving.
slide-44
SLIDE 44

10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Apartment buildings Single-family dwellings 44

Housing investments at a conservative level

Housing completions, apartments in Multi-family dwellings and Single-family houses in Sweden Housing investments as a percentage of GDP

(4Q moving average)

Swedish housing and mortgage market

Number of apartments

Source: Statistics Sweden, Mar 2013 (data as per FY 2012) Source: Reuters Ecowin, Oct 20, 2012 (data as per Q2 2012)

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Spain Eurozone Denmark UK USA Sweden

As per 31 Dec 2012, 24,524 apartments were completed during 2012

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SLIDE 45

200 000 400 000 600 000 800 000 1 000 000 1 200 000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Acc increase in population Acc increase in housing starts

Population growth far exceeds housing unit growth

45

Source: Statistics Sweden, Mar 2012, 1 Boverket

Population- and housing growth

Number of homes / persons

Swedish housing and mortgage market

  • 60%1 of the Swedish population live in Municipalities with housing shortage
slide-46
SLIDE 46

Population growth far exceeds housing unit growth

46

  • Trend more pronounced in the three largest cities, (index 1990=100)

Source: Statistics Sweden

Swedish housing and mortgage market

128 115 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Stockholm Population Stockholm Housing stock 120 114 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Gothenburg Population Gothenburg Housing Stock 129 113 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Malmoe Population Malmoe Housing Stock 126 114 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Top three cities population Top three cities housing stock

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Appendix

47

slide-48
SLIDE 48

This is Swedbank

48

slide-49
SLIDE 49

The Bank for the many people, households and businesses

49

Latvia Population 2.0m Private customers 0.9m Corporate customers 84 000 Branches 54 ATMs 417 Cards 1.0m Employees 1 738 Lithuania Population 3.0m Private customers 2.0m Corporate customers 87 000 Branches 81 ATMs 503 Cards 1.9m Employees 1 948 Estonia Population 1.3m Private customers 1.0m Corporate customers 118 000 Branches 57 ATMs 496 Cards 1.1m Employees 2 408 Sweden Population 9.5m Private customers 4.0m Corporate customers 263 000 Organisations 67 000 Branches 308 ATMs 444 Cards 3.8m Employees 7 920

This is Swedbank

Source: Swedbank Fact book Q1, 2013

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SLIDE 50

10 20 30 40 50 60 Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Mortgage lending Corporate lending

10 20 30 40 50 60 Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Deposits Private Deposits Corporate

Market leading retail franchise in all home markets

50

% %

Source: Source Sweden: Statistics Sweden (SCB) Source Estonia: Estonian Central Bank Sources Latvia: Association of Commercial Banks of Latvia (ACBL) & The Financial and Capital Market Commission (FCMC) Source Lithuania: Association of Lithuanian Banks (LBA)

This is Swedbank Market shares, Deposits

February 2013

  • Largest retail bank and fund manager in Sweden

Market shares, Lending

February 2013

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SLIDE 51

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Other* 3.3% Lithuania 2.9% Latvia 2.4% Estonia 4.3% Sweden 87.1% Swedish Mortgage loans (private+corp) Other corporate (incl. LC&I, Sweden) Other

Sweden – the dominating home market

  • Total lending to the public amounts to SEK 1,183bn (as per Q1 2013), out of which

around 87% is originated in Sweden

  • Estonia makes up 45% of total lending in the Baltics

51

Source: Swedbank Fact book Q1 2013, page 37

This is Swedbank

* Russia & Ukraine, Denmark, Norway, Finland and NY Branch

Lending distributed by countries (Q1 2013)

SEK 1 030bn

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SLIDE 52

Baltic market fundamentals

  • Legal and institutional framework
  • Fiscal position
  • Market concentration
  • Absence of “irrational” players
  • Sophisticated product penetration
  • Swedbank retail and deposit incumbent
  • GDP / capita less than half of Sweden’s
  • Risk mitigators

– Loan-to-deposit restriction – Group governance model

52

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

This is Swedbank – Baltic banking

Source: Swedbank

slide-53
SLIDE 53

Customer requirements drive new ways of banking

  • Focus on functionality and ease of use

53

This is Swedbank - Retail banking

5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 million

Monthly logins Swedbank and Savings Banks

Mobile bank Internet bank

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

slide-54
SLIDE 54

Fast increase of digital usage

  • Internet Bank, private and corporate (since March 1997)

– Number of users: >3.5 million

  • Mobile Bank, private (since Dec 2009)

– Number of users: >1.3 million

  • Mobile Bank Youth (since March 2013)

– Number of users: 6 700

  • Mobile Bank Corporate (since March 2013)

– Number of users: >8 000

  • Ipad (since Oct 2012)

– Number of users: >200 000

  • Swish (since Dec 2012)

– Number of users: ~100 000

54

This is Swedbank - Swedbank and Savings Banks

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

slide-55
SLIDE 55

Financial performance

55

slide-56
SLIDE 56

Peer comparison – Swedbank top 1 or 2 in all key metrics

56

Business position

  • Peer group definition - jurisdiction matters

Reported YE 2012 figures Swedbank SHB SEB Nordea Danske DnB Rating, long-term (S&P/Moody's/Fitch) A+/A2/A+ AA-/Aa3/AA- A+/A1/A+ AA-/Aa3/AA- A-/Baa1/A A+/A1/A+ Rating, short-term (S&P/Moody's/Fitch) A-1/P-1/F1 A-1+/P-1/F1+ A-1/P-1/F1 A-1+/P-1/F1+ A-2/P-2/F1 A1/P-1/F1 RoE, %* 14.1 14.4 10.8 11.5 3.6 10.9 RoCET1, % 19.2 17.6 13.6 15.2 4.4 11.5 Pre-provision RoCET1, % 26.2 22.8 17.8 24.6 19.6 18.0 CET1 Basel 2, % 17.4 18.4 16.4 13.1 14.5 12.1 CET1 Basel 3, % 16.1 16.5 14.3 11.8 12.5 12.1 CET1 IAS 19, % 15.4 16.4 13.1 11.6 12.5 12.1 C/I ratio, % 46.3 46.3 60.5 50.7 55.8 50.2 Credit impairment ratio, % 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.27 0.74 0.25 Impairment (gross) as % of total gross loans 1.11 0.45 1.07 1.94 6.54 2.05 LCR, % 130 136 113 127 121 n/d NSFR, % 91 n/d n/d n/d n/d n/d

*ROE calculated as average of equity for Q1 and Q4 for comparable reasons (otherwise communicated 14.4% calculated as an average for all quarters 2012) n/d = not disclosed

slide-57
SLIDE 57

Strategic focus areas

  • ROE target of 15%

– Efficiency – Repricing – Increase share of wallet – Capital efficiency

  • Lowest risk – lowest funding costs

– Buffers

  • Customer offering

– Internet banking own profit center – further investments – Improved advisory capability – further investments

  • Continue de-centralisation

57

Financial performance - business position

slide-58
SLIDE 58

Asset quality

58

slide-59
SLIDE 59

Provisions – well provided for

59

Asset quality

Provision ratios, % Q1 13 Retail 70 LC&I 76 Baltic Banking 52 Group 57

* Russia and Ukraine reported as discontinued operations.

11 915 10 951 9 934 7 077 4 429 2 478 2 040 1 774 1 545 1 420 65.0% 63.7% 65.2% 61.9% 57.0% 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13* SEKm

Individual provisions Portfolio provisions Provision ratio

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

slide-60
SLIDE 60

Corporate portfolio drives capital efficiency

60

Asset quality - Retail

94 24 104

Total portfolio SEK 222bn

Swedbank Mortgage AB Swedbank Finans AB Other

Segments excl. Swedbank Mortgage and Swedbank Finance

Volume (SEKbn) Secured (%)

Agriculture 5.9 81 Manufacturing 9.7 74 Public sector and utilities 5.1 92 Construction 4.7 82 Retail 9.0 88 Transportation 1.9 85 Shipping 0.1 95 Hotels and restaurants 3.1 91 Information & communication 0.9 46 Finance and insurance 2.0 66 Property management 49.4 97 Professional service 6.7 65 Other 6.0 72 Total 104.4 87

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

slide-61
SLIDE 61

15 5 4 24 26 25 24 23 10 20 30 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 SEKbn

Shipping and Offshore Offshore Tanker Other

61

  • Exposure to Shipping & Offshore sector

was SEK 23.5bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK 7.7bn

– Portfolio duration 4-5y – Average fleet age 7y – Strong employment profiles Asset quality – Large Corporates & Institutions

5 10 15 20 SEK EUR USD NOK JPY

Shipping and Offshore portfolio by currency

Q1-13 Q4-12 0,5 6,8 1,6 3,5 1,2 1,9 0,2 2,3 0,7 1,4 0,7 0,9 1,6 2 4 6 8 Cruise Drilling & exploration Oil service Supply Accommodation Floating production Chemical Product Crude oil Gas (LNG/LPG) Dry bulk Container RORO

Shipping and Offshore Portfolio by subsegment

Q1-13 Q4-12

Shipping and Offshore

SEKbn bn

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

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SLIDE 62

Agriculture

  • Segmentation definitions

– Corporate Agriculture: Businesses that derive their main income from agricultural activities – Private Investments: Private individuals who

  • wn agricultural properties for residential or

investment purposes

  • Lending to the agricultural sector SEK

63.3bn

– Corporate Agriculture: (58%)

  • Agriculture 45%
  • Forestry 13%

– Private Investments (42%)

  • Residential: 20%
  • Forestry: 22%

62

Asset quality

Agriculture 45% Forestry 13% Private: Forestry 22% Private: Residential 20%

slide-63
SLIDE 63

Liquidity and funding

63

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SLIDE 64

Structure of the Swedish domestic covered bond market

  • Benchmark system established in early 1990s
  • Tap issuance enhances liquidity and reduces execution risk

– Continuous daily issuance – Buy-backs against issuance of longer tenors – Total issue size often peak at SEK 40-60bn

  • Market making at pre-set bid/offer spreads

64

Source: Swedbank

Liquidity and funding

slide-65
SLIDE 65

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 13

SEKbn

Swedbank Mortgage Total excl. Swedbank Mortgage

1 062 1 149 1 113 1 075 1 128 1 134 1 103 1 015 883 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Government debt % of GDP

The Swedish covered bond market

65

Swedish Domestic Covered Bonds, in SEKbn Public debt projections 2012-2016

Source: Actual and forecast from government budget statement, Sep 20, 2012

  • Domestic covered bonds represent approximately 1/3 of GDP and 1/2 of the total

Swedish bond market

Source: www.ascb.se , Mar 31, 2013

Liquidity and funding

% SEKbn

slide-66
SLIDE 66

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jun 13 May 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Jun 16 Mar 17 Dec 17 May 20 SPI 177 SPI 166 SPI 182 SPI 183 SPI 184 SPI 185 SPI 186 SPI 180 2009-12-31 2010-12-31 2011-12-31 2012-03-31 2012-06-30 2012-09-30 2012-12-31 2013-03-31

Swedbank’s domestic covered bonds

66

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013

Liquidity and funding SEKbn

slide-67
SLIDE 67

29% 18% 35% 10% 34% 66% 2% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2007 Q1 2013 5 years + 1-5 years 3-12 months 0-3 months

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Total capital market funding Covered bond funding

Fundamental change of maturity profile

67

Average maturity profile of outstanding market funding

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013

Months

SEK 673bn SEK 767bn

  • 2007 – 64% of wholesale funding < 12 months, SEK 13bn in central bank deposits
  • Q1 2013 – 28% of wholesale funding < 12 months, SEK 210bn in central bank deposits

Liquidity and funding

slide-68
SLIDE 68

50 100 150 200 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-

Government guaranteed debt Senior unsecured debt Covered bonds

68

Long-term funding maturity profile

  • FY 2013 maturities amount to nominal SEK 86bn, of which SEK 46bn remains

68

Long-term funding maturity profile

Source: Swedbank Mar 31, 2013

Liquidity and funding

SEKbn

slide-69
SLIDE 69

50 100 150 200 250 300 Assets Liabilities Assets held for sale Interest-bearing securities Lending to the public Loans to credit institutions Cash and balances with central banks Deposits and borrowings from the public Amounts owed to credit institutions Debt securities in issue

Limited need for USD-funding

69

SEKbn

  • USD-funding need covered for more than 12 months
  • Issued USD 1bn of covered bonds (144a) and USD 1bn of senior (144a) YTD 2013

Source: Swedbank Fact book, Mar 31, 2013

Liquidity and funding

slide-70
SLIDE 70

Cover pool loan-to-value distribution

70

Swedbank’s cover pool

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013 (1excluding public sector loans)

WA LTV per property type1

1

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Single-family homes Tenant owner rights Tenant owner associations Multi-family housing Commercial Forestry & Agricultural Total all types

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SLIDE 71

 The Covered Bond Act entered into force on July 1, 2004 and is over-sighted by the Swedish FSA. Its main characteristics are:

Dual recourse to the issuer and cover pool

Dynamic, regulated pool of assets, frequently monitored by the Swedish FSA via appointment of an independent inspector

Regulated valuation of cover pool assets which remain on the balance sheet  The cover pool may consist of certain mortgage credits, public credits and supplemental assets. There is no requirement to segregate mortgage and public credits.  Maximum LTVs: Residential 75%, Agricultural 70%, Commercial 60%  Maximum 10% commercial loans and 20% supplemental assets in cover pool  Regular monitoring of the property values, revaluation of property prices in case of significant drop (generally interpreted as 15% drop)  No mandatory over-collateralisation (OC)  Regional constraint on collateral assets (Mortgage - EEA, Public - OECD)  The cover pool value shall always exceed the aggregate value of claims (including derivatives)  A sound balance in terms of FX, interest rates and maturities must be achieved. It is deemed to exist when the present value of the cover pool at all times exceed the present value of liabilities (including derivatives), even on a stressed basis. Present value cover must hold even after 1% upward and downward shift in the yield curve and a 10% change in the currency  Non-performing assets in the cover pool which are more than 60 days overdue must be disregarded for the purposes of the matching tests  Holders of covered bonds and relevant derivative counterparties benefit from a priority claim over the cover pool should the institution be declared bankrupt and rank pari passu ahead of unsecured creditors and all

  • ther creditors of the institution in respect of assets in the cover pool

 The registered assets in the cover pool, the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts are required to be maintained as a unit and kept segregated from other assets and liabilities of the bankruptcy estate of the institution. The administrators-in-bankruptcy are then required to procure the continued timely service of payments due under the covered bonds and any relevant derivative contracts

Overview of the Swedish covered bond legislation

71

Swedish covered bond legislation

Loan-to-value ratios and

  • ther limitations

Matching requirements Benefit of a priority right

  • ver the cover pool

Administration in event of bankruptcy The Covered Bond Act

Source: www.ascb.se

slide-72
SLIDE 72

Funding sources

72

Swedbank AB Swedbank Mortgage AB*

* 100% guaranteed by parent company

  • Irrevocable
  • Unconditional
  • Timely

** Limited by cover pool size 100% owned

Liquidity and funding

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013

Program Limit Long Term Global MTN USD 40bn Domestic MTN SEK 60bn USD Senior (144a / Reg.S) USD 15bn NSV (stand alone doc.) Short Term Domestic CP SEK 80bn European CP/CD EUR 6bn US CP USD 15bn Yankee CD USD 10bn French CD EUR 4bn Finnish CD EUR 4bn Program Limit Long Term Domestic Benchmark CB Unlimited** EMTN CB EUR 25bn USD Covered bonds (144a / Reg.S) USD 15bn Domestic MTN CB SEK 150bn Norwegian Benchmark CB Unlimited** Registered CB (stand alone doc.) Short Term Domestic CP SEK 50bn

slide-73
SLIDE 73

Swedish economy

73

slide-74
SLIDE 74

74

Swedish economy

  • Real economic growth declined to 1.2% in 2012 from 3.7% the

year before. Despite the slowdown, economic activity held up surprisingly well in the last two quarters of the year, and labour market developments were supported by a stronger-than- expected employment growth

  • We expect GDP growth to remain weak in the first half of 2013

before picking up steam. Overall, for 2013 and 2014, we forecast real growth at 1.6% and 2.7%, respectively. In particular, household consumption will drive growth, and economic policy will remain expansionary.

  • In 2012, economic growth decelerated to 3.2%, primarily due

to weakened foreign demand and the contraction of export-

  • riented manufacturing. Growth was primarily driven by public

investments in buildings and infrastructure, financed by EU transfers and CO2 quota sales.

  • Boosted mainly by domestic demand, GDP growth is expected

to reach 3.3% in 2013 and accelerate to 4.2% next year, with additional support from exports. Investment growth will decelerate as government investments will decrease. Private consumption will contribute the most to economic growth.

  • The economy expanded by 5.6% in 2012, driven by exports

and stronger domestic demand. Inflation has slowed sharply as domestic price pressures are weak and global price dynamics benign. Latvia has applied for euro area membership and is expected to join it on January 1, 2014

  • The GDP growth forecast for 2013 is raised to 4.3% (4.1%

before) as lower inflation will support private spending. Inflation is revised down to 1.1% this year but will pick up to 3.5% in 2014. GDP growth will speed up to 5% in 2014, as the global outlook improves and the personal income tax rate is cut.

  • Growth remained strong at the end of last year, mainly due to

booming exports. Companies postponed some of their investments and slashed inventories, but we do not expect this trend to continue. Last year, for the first time, foreign trade was in surplus.

  • We keep our GDP growth forecast at 4.0% for both 2013 and
  • 2014. Real net wages are expected to grow faster this year

and the next, due to lower inflation and likely lower labour tax

  • rates. We have cut the inflation forecast for 2013 to 2.5%, but

euro accession is far from certain. Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Source: Swedbank Economic outlook, Apr 10, 2013

slide-75
SLIDE 75

Government debt

  • Around 15% in foreign currencies

Swedish economy

SEKbn 2011 2012F 2013F Government debt in the beginning of the year 1188 1158 1167 Primary financing need excluding sell-off's

  • 79

6

  • 4

Sale of government assets

  • 23

Interest cost on government debt 34 26 19 Net financing need

  • 68

32 15 Corrections of debt 22

  • 6

4 Money-market assets (annual change) 16

  • 17

Government debt change

  • 30

10 19 Government debt at year end 1158 1167 1186 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F

Debt to GDP ratio, % – historic distribution Government net financing need

Source: Swedish National Debt Office, Jul 2012

slide-76
SLIDE 76
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

1 000 000 2 000 000 3 000 000 4 000 000 5 000 000 6 000 000 Resources Expenditures Import GDP Gross investments Public consumption Privat consumption Export

Swedish GDP breakdown

76

Swedish economy

Source: Statistics Sweden, Mar, 2013

GDP growth

From corresponding quarter previous year , %, fixed prices

Data up to and including Q4 2012

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Subsidies on products Agriculture,forestry, fishing Education, health and social work Electricity, gas, steam and air … One and two family houses, secondary … Financial services and insurance activities Transport and storage Management of real estate Information and communication Construction Real estate activities Scientific, technical and admin. Act Wholesale and retail trade Other value added Taxes on products Manufacturing industry

GDP production approach at market price The output of the Swedish economy

SEKm

slide-77
SLIDE 77

Housing and mortgage market

77

slide-78
SLIDE 78

Mortgage loans – risk-adjusted returns before volume

  • Risk reduction – a long-term necessity

─ Price ─ Loan-to-value ─ Amortization

  • Market shares

─ Risk-adjusted returns before volume ─ Defend business position

78

Swedish housing and mortgage market

Mortgage margins

10 20 30 40 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Swedban k's share

  • f monthly

growth Share of housing lending balance (Sweden statistics)

0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Private, back-book

  • f which floating
  • f which fixed

Private net mortgage lending market share Jan 2008 – Dec 2012, %

Source: Swedbank, Mar 31, 2013

slide-79
SLIDE 79

Price development

79

Swedish housing and mortgage market

Source: SCB and Swedbank

Real estate price to disposable income, index 1993= 100

50 100 150 200 250

slide-80
SLIDE 80

Structural interest rate decline key to affordability

80

Household indebtedness and interest expenditures after tax as percentage of disposable income

Source: Riksbanken, Financial Stability Report 2012:2, Nov, 2012, chart 3.5

Swedish housing and mortgage market

% % 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Debt ratio (left scale) Interest ratio (right scale)

slide-81
SLIDE 81

200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

Vilnius

Nr.of deals EUR/m2 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

Riga

Nr.of deals EUR/m2

Baltic countries

81

Real estate prices

Source: Land book database 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

Tallinn

Nr.of deals EUR/m2 Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board Source: Swedbank, State Enterprise Centre of Registers

LTV-distribution, %

Q1 2013 Q4 2011 Q4 2010 Estonia 67 75 86 Latvia 133 149 161 Lithuania 91 96 97

slide-82
SLIDE 82

Swedish Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report

82

slide-83
SLIDE 83

Transparency index for liquidity reporting, European banks

83

Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report

20 40 60 80 100 Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank

  • Note. The transparency index specifies the quality and scope of the banks' public reporting of liquidity risks. The higher the higher the level, the higher the quality and scope. The grey bars

represent global banks. The chart shows the Swedish banks and a sample of European banks (grey bars).

Source: The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2013:1, chart 1:4

Report NSFR at least once a quarter Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank Financial Stability Report 2013:1 Minimum level observed Partly observed Not observed

Table 1:3 Public reporting of NSFR

slide-84
SLIDE 84

Core Tier 1 capital ratio according to Basel II

84

Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report

5 10 15 20 Crédit Agricole RBS Banco Santander Raiffeisen Société Générale Barclays BBVA UniCredit Intesa Sanpaolo DNB Deutsche Bank BNP Paribas Lloyds Commerzbank HSBC Nordea Danske Bank SEB Credit Suisse Swedbank Handelsbanken UBS

Source: The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2013:1, chart 1:6

slide-85
SLIDE 85

Equity in relation to total assets

85

Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report

2 4 6 8 10 12 Handelsbanken SEB Nordea Swedbank %

Source: The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2013:1, chart 1:7

  • Note. The measure specifies the capital of the Swedish banks and of a sample of European banks (grey bars) in relation to their total assets, with reductions for reverse repos, derivatives and

insurance assets. The measure should not be confused with the Basel Committee's leverage ratio.

slide-86
SLIDE 86

CET1 ratios according to Basel III

86

Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report

  • Note. The CET 1 ratios are stated according to the Riksbank's own calculations in accordance with the Basel III Accord. On 1 January 2013, the revised accounting standard IAS 19 "Compensation

to employees" were implemented. The revision primarily refers to defined pension plans and entails the reporting of accumulated actuarial gains and losses directly against equity, which may have effects on reported CET 1 ratios.

Source: The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2013:1, chart 1:12 % 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Handels- banken Nordea SEB Swedbank March 2012 June 2012 September 2012 December 2012 March 2013

slide-87
SLIDE 87

The major Swedish banks’ liquidity coverage ratio (LCR)

87

Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Handels- banken Nordea SEB Swedbank % Source: The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2013:1, chart 4:16

  • Note. LCR according to the Swedish FSA:s regulations FFFS 2012:6. Does not correspond to the Basel Committee's revised LCR from 2013.
slide-88
SLIDE 88

The Riksbank’s structural liquidity measure

88

Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report

20 40 60 80 100 120 Handels- banken Nordea SEB Swedbank December 2010 December 2011 December 2012 % Source: The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2013:1, chart 4:17

  • Note. For a detailed description of the Riksbank’s structural liquidity measure, see Method for stress tests of the banks liquidity risks. Article in Financial Stability Report 2010:2. Sveriges

Riksbank.

slide-89
SLIDE 89

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

The Riksbank’s short-term and structural liquidity measures

89

Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report

Swedbank Handelsbanken Nordea SEB

Source: The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2013:1, chart 4.19 Short-term liquidity measure (days) Structural liquidity measure (per cent)

  • Note. The dashed lines show the mean value, the grey dots illustrate a group of European banks.
slide-90
SLIDE 90

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Q1 13 13 14 15 Q1 13 13 14 15 Q1 13 13 14 15 Q1 13 13 14 15 Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank

CET1 ratios according to Basel III, initially and in the stress test

90

Swedish Riksbank’s financial stability report

Source: The Riksbank’s Financial Stability Report 2013:1, Table A:5 and chart A.3 % 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Profit before impairments 14.6 14.6 14.6 34.3 34.3 34.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 16.0 16.0 16.0 Impairments

  • 17.3
  • 18.3
  • 17.9
  • 39.2
  • 41.0
  • 39.1
  • 16.0
  • 17.1
  • 16.2
  • 13.2
  • 14.1
  • 13.5

Operating profit

  • 2.7
  • 3.7
  • 3.3
  • 4.9
  • 6.7
  • 4.8
  • 3.8
  • 4.9
  • 4.0

2.8 1.9 2.5 CT1 capital, end of year (Basel II) 84 80 76 181 174 169 85 80 75 81 82 83 RWA end of year (Basel II) 502 501 503 1 488 1 495 1 519 616 619 627 482 484 490 CT1 capital ratio, Basel II 16.6% 15.9% 15.1% 12.1% 11.6% 11.1% 13.8% 12.9% 12.0% 16.8% 16.9% 16.9% CT1 capital ratio, Basel III 16.1% 15.4% 14.6% 11.0% 10.5% 10.0% 12.1% 11.2% 10.3% 15.9% 16.0% 16.0% SHB Nordea SEB Swedbank Stress test

2015 regulatory cap 2013 regulatory cap