Balancing returns and growth Torgrim Reitan, Executive Vice - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Balancing returns and growth Torgrim Reitan, Executive Vice - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Balancing returns and growth Torgrim Reitan, Executive Vice President and CFO Swedbank Nordic Energy Summit Forward-looking statements This presentation material contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and These


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Balancing returns and growth

Torgrim Reitan, Executive Vice President and CFO Swedbank Nordic Energy Summit

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Forward-looking statements

This presentation material contains certain forward-looking statements that involve risks and

  • uncertainties. In some cases, we use words such as "aim", "ambition", "believe", "continue", "could",

"estimate", "expect", "focus", "intend", "likely", "may", "outlook", "plan", "potential", "strategy", "will", "guidance" and similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact, including, among others, statements regarding future financial position, results of operations and cash flows; changes in the fair value of derivatives; future financial ratios and information; future financial or operational portfolio or performance; future market position and conditions; business strategy; growth strategy; future impact of accounting policy judgments; sales, trading and market strategies; research and development initiatives and strategy; market outlook and future economic projections and assumptions; competitive position; projected regularity and performance levels; expectations related to our recent transactions, projects and discoveries, such as discoveries in the Bay du Nord prospect in the Flemish Pass Basin offshore Newfoundland as well as on the NCS; the termination of the full-scale carbon capture project at Mongstad; Statoil's interest in the OMV-operated Wisting Central oil discovery in the Hoop area; completion and results of acquisitions, disposals and

  • ther contractual arrangements; reserve information; future margins; projected returns; future levels,

timing or development of capacity, reserves or resources; future decline of mature fields; planned maintenance (and the effects thereof); oil and gas production forecasts and reporting; domestic and international growth, expectations and development of production, projects, pipelines or resources; estimates related to production and development levels and dates; operational expectations, estimates, schedules and costs; exploration and development activities, plans and expectations; projections and expectations for upstream and downstream activities; oil, gas, alternative fuel and energy prices; oil, gas, alternative fuel and energy supply and demand; natural gas contract prices; timing of gas off-take; technological innovation, implementation, position and expectations; projected operational costs or savings; projected unit of production cost; our ability to create or improve value; future sources of financing; exploration and project development expenditure; effectiveness of our internal policies and plans; our ability to manage our risk exposure; our liquidity levels and management; estimated or future liabilities, obligations or expenses and how such liabilities, obligations and expenses are structured; expected impact of currency and interest rate fluctuations; expectations related to contractual or financial counterparties; capital expenditure estimates and expectations; projected outcome, objectives of management for future operations; impact of PSA effects; projected impact or timing of administrative or governmental rules, standards, decisions, standards or laws (including taxation laws); estimated costs of removal and abandonment; estimated lease payments and gas transport commitments are forward- looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements for many reasons, including the risks described above in "Financial Risk update". These forward-looking statements reflect current views about future events and are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, including levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing; price and availability of alternative fuels; currency exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations; the political and economic policies of Norway and

  • ther oil-producing countries; EU directives; general economic conditions; political and social stability

and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; Euro-zone uncertainty; global political events and actions, including war, terrorism and sanctions; security breaches, including breaches of our digital infrastructure (cybersecurity); changes or uncertainty in or non-compliance with laws and governmental regulations; the timing of bringing new fields on stream; an inability to exploit growth or investment

  • pportunities; material differences from reserves estimates; unsuccessful drilling; an inability to find and

develop reserves; ineffectiveness of crisis management systems; adverse changes in tax regimes; the development and use of new technology; geological or technical difficulties; operational problems;

  • perator error; inadequate insurance coverage; the lack of necessary transportation infrastructure when

a field is in a remote location and other transportation problems; the actions of competitors; the actions

  • f field partners; the actions of governments (including the Norwegian state as majority shareholder);

counterparty defaults; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions, climate change, and other changes to business conditions; failure to meet our ethical and social standards; an inability to attract and retain personnel; relevant governmental approvals (including in relation to the agreement with Wintershall); industrial actions by workers and other factors discussed elsewhere in this report. Additional information, including information on factors that may affect Statoil's business, is contained in Statoil's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2012, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found on Statoil's website at www.statoil.com. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that our future results, level of activity, performance or achievements will meet these

  • expectations. Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and

completeness of the forward-looking statements. Unless we are required by law to update these statements, we will not necessarily update any of these statements after the date of this report, either to make them conform to actual results or changes in our expectations.

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A consistent strategic roadmap

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Technology focused upstream company

Exploration

  • Continue to

prioritise high value exploration

  • Firm strategy
  • Deepen core areas
  • Drill high impact

wells

  • Early access at

scale

Portfolio management

  • Realise value
  • Sharpen our

upstream profile

  • Strengthen

execution and financial resilience

Development & Production

  • Safe and secure operations
  • Drive cost and capital efficiency
  • Capitalise on technology and
  • perating experience to
  • Take out the full NCS value

potential

  • Strengthen global offshore

positions

  • Maximise value of onshore portfolio
  • Execute projects on time and cost

Midstream & marketing

  • Leverage European

gas position

  • Onshore access to

premium markets

  • Exploit global trading

competence

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Adjusting to strengthened competitiveness

  • World class performance last 3

years − 3.9 bn barrels − 11 high impact discoveries

  • Strong portfolio with optionality
  • In a position to prioritise
  • Cost increase
  • Capital intensity
  • Falling returns
  • Macro uncertainty and risks
  • Cyclical industry
  • Prepared for price fluctuations

4

Leverage exploration success Respond to industry challenges Strengthen our resilience

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Start-ups pre-2020 Optimising/future 1) Divested/reduced 1)

  • High profitability
  • Strategic fit
  • Improvement potential
  • Return on capital
  • Low strategic fit
  • Return on capital
  • Market attractiveness

Non-sanctioned

  • Johan Sverdrup
  • IOR projects

Sanctioned

  • CLOV
  • Jack
  • Gudrun
  • St.Malo
  • Valemon
  • Hebron
  • Ivar Aasen
  • Aasta Hansteen
  • Mariner
  • Gina Krog
  • Shah Deniz II
  • US onshore

Non-sanctioned

  • Snorre 2040
  • Johan Castberg
  • Corner
  • Bressay
  • Peregrino II
  • Eirin
  • Peon
  • Lavrans
  • Snøhvit II
  • Corvus
  • Sigrid

Future

  • Bay du Nord
  • Tanzania LNG
  • Pão de Açúcar
  • King Lear

Non-sanctioned

  • Rosebank
  • Shtokman
  • West Qurna II

Sanctioned

  • Gudrun
  • Gjøa/Vega
  • Valemon
  • Shah Deniz
  • Schiehallion

In operation

  • Gassled stake
  • Statoil Fuel & Retail
  • Gullfaks
  • Brage
  • Kvitebjørn
  • Heimdal

High value growth

High grading the portfolio

5 Johan Sverdrup, Norway

One of the world’s largest undeveloped discoveries

Bay du Nord, Canada

The world’s largest oil discovery in 2013

1) Since Capital Markets Day 2011. Not exhaustive.

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High value growth

Directing our capital to priority projects

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Strengthening profitability

IRR 1) (USD 100/bbl / capex-weighted) Profitability index 2) (NPV/total capex) 16% 24% 0,19 0,37 Ongoing project developments Non-sanctioned pre-2020 start-ups Capex vs. IRR Sum production 3) vs. break-even

  • Capital directed to high

value projects

  • Next wave of investments

even more profitable

  • Competitive project portfolio

executed at cost and schedule Investing in high value growth

5 10 15 20 >20% >15% >10% <10% USD bn 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 <45 45-60 60-75 75+ Bn boe

1) From time of sanction 2) NPV per USD capex (USD 100/bbl / aggregated) 3) Sum of production over field life

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High value growth

Growth projects to deliver higher returns

7 Projects under development Probable development projects

Moving from good profitability… … to performance well ahead of peers

10 15 20 25

Peer average Statoil

Average IRR %

10 15 20 25

Peer average Statoil

Average IRR %

Analysis based on Wood Mackenzie data (Dec 2013). Capex-weighted average nominal IRR of projects under development (ie post sanctioning) and probable (ie pre sanctioning). Excludes US onshore projects. Price assumption is Wood Mackenzie base prices. Assumes full fiscal consolidation of companies in concession regimes. Peers include: Anadarko, BG Group, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, Petrobras, Repsol, Shell and Total

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Increase efficiency

Reducing cost and improving efficiency

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5 10 15 20

Delivering capex improvements

  • Reduce modification capex by 20%
  • Potential for 10% lower facility cost

from leaner concepts

  • Reduce rig committments
  • Potential to cut well construction

time by 25% Reducing opex & SG&A

  • Maintain upstream cost level despite

production growth

  • Further reduce downstream cost
  • Increase organisational efficiency

1,0 0,3 1,3

0,5 1 1,5

Capex Opex / SG&A 2016 total

bn USD

Statoil

Strong starting point with low relative Unit Production Cost 1) Launching improvement initiatives with expected annual savings of USD 1.3 bn from 2016

1) Peer group: Anadarko, BG, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, Petrobras, Repsol Shell, Total, Company reported figures sourced from IHS Herold Financial Database. The benchmark is based on average UPC for the years 2010-2012.

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SLIDE 9

Prioritise capital distribution

Strong commitment to capital distribution

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Firm financial framework

  • Strong balance sheet will be

maintained

− A-category rating on stand-alone basis − Net debt/capital employed 15-30%

  • Firm dividend policy1)

− 2013 dividend at NOK 7.00 per share to be paid in 2014

  • Quarterly dividend from 20141)

− Two quarterly dividends to be paid in 2014

  • Share buy-back more actively

used

− Will depend on proceeds, cash flow and balance sheet

Net debt reduced from 27% to 15% Firm dividend policy with quarterly payouts

27% 25% 21% 12% 15%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

~20%

Net debt to Capital

Underpins growth and robustness Grow with long term underlying earnings 6,00 6,25 6,50 6,75 7,00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

NOK per share

1) Proposal to the Annual General Meeting 2014

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SLIDE 10

Prioritise capital distribution

Organic FCF covers dividend from 2016

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5 10 15 20 25

Stable capital expenditure outlook

  • 2014: USD ~20 bn organic capex
  • 2014-16: USD ~20 bn organic capex
  • Investing for profitable growth

− ~45% NCS − ~60% liquids − ~80% OECD − ~30% non-sanctioned

  • Portfolio management to be continued

− Proceeds not included in outlook

USD bn

~22 ~20

Cash flow to (gross) investments

Strong expected average cash flow 2014-2016 1)

Cash flow from

  • perations 1)

1) Brent Blend assumption 100 USD/bbl real

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Balancing returns and growth

Delivering ~3% organic production CAGR 2013-16

  • 2% increase in production

from 2013 (rebased) to 2014

  • 3% production CAGR

from 2013-16

  • Strong line-up of projects

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1940 1850

1500 1700 1900 2100

2013 2013 rebased 2014 2016

Equity production 1) 2)

(mmboed) New Existing New Existing3)

Divestments/ redeterminations

1)

1) Rebased 2013 is adjusted with 90 000 mboepd for full year impact of transactions with OMV, Wintershall and BP/SOCAR, and redetermination Ormen Lange 2) According to current projections, 2.5 mill boed production to be reached 3-4 years after the previous 2020 estimate. 3) 2014 start-ups included in 2016 existing total.

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Summary – Balancing returns and growth

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2014 2014-2016

Key message Capex USD ~20 bn USD ~20 bn  USD 5 bn reduction 2014-16  Free cash flow positive from 2016 Exploration USD ~3.5 bn ~50 wells ~20 high impact wells  Continuing significant exploration ROACE ~2013 level ~2013 level  Maintaining returns Production growth ~2 % from 2013 (rebased) ~3 % CAGR from 2013  High graded production growth

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