Sustainable prosperity is possible, but not predestined. Australia - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sustainable prosperity is possible, but not predestined. Australia is free to choose. JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

IMPLICATIONS OF EXTREME EVENTS FOR FARM PROFITABILITY (INDEX 2017=100) 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 * Compared to pre-industrial temperatures 100 AUSTRALIAN AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE FOR 1910 TO 2100 80 RELATIVE TO PRE-INDUSTRIAL (1850-1900 AVG) CONDITIONS 2017 2027 2037 2047 2057 JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

The greatest opportunity for boosting farm yield lies in the hastening of yield gap closing (Fischer et al. 2014) JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

breakthrough traits? SHO Capturing Nitrogen Modified Improved Insect safflower Heterosis photosynthesis fixing crops oils control and genetic tools and targeted flexibility? Crop ML/AI Large-scale Field-based genomics Biopredicton data tools phenomics JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

Below the red line = an extra $97 million for Australian canola growers Resemblance: D7 Manhattan distance 0.2 Country Taiwan Auz 0.1 Unknown Vietnam 0 CAP2 -0.1 -0.2 Homi Kharas, Bookings Institute, 2017 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 CAP1 JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

Soil carbon Acidification Water Nutrients Air Energy Pest and disease Financing and insurance . . . 7 JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

Number of Herbicide Applications per Paddock per Year What the Return Per Aggregation Machine Usage (Ha) ($ per Ha) Ha farm can $ tell me Canola Yield Vs Rainfall (Statistical Modelling) Yield (T/Ha) Modelled Canola Yield Modelled Canola Yield 400mm Rain 450mm Rain Scenario Yield Differences (T/Ha) Difference between Modelled Predicting Future Yields Yields 450 - 400mm Rain JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

This can add up to a ‘knowledge and capacity’ revolution Unprecedented knowledge of the status of the farm – and new capacity to do something about it JISEA Annual Meeting 2019 Grundy CSIRO

Thank you Agriculture & Food Mike Grundy t +61 7 3214 2245 e mike.grundy@csiro.au w www.csiro.au