Sustainability Be effective, not nice Keith Clarke 2 This is - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sustainability Be effective, not nice Keith Clarke 2 This is - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 24, 2024 263 likes •631 views

Sustainability Be effective, not nice Keith Clarke 2 This is about...... YOU as a professional, i.e. designer of built environment 3 NOT ABOUT YOUR LIFESTYLE 4 You may choose 1. Cycle 2. Eat meat once a week 3. Wash clothes at 30 c

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Sustainability

Be effective, not nice Keith Clarke

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This is about...... YOU as a professional,

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i.e. designer of built environment

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NOT ABOUT YOUR LIFESTYLE

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You may choose

  • 1. Cycle
  • 2. Eat meat once a week
  • 3. Wash clothes at 30°c
  • 4. Recycle
  • 5. Invest in green funds
  • 6. Limit flying...

....and...and....

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THIS IS ABOUT WHAT YOU WILL DESIGN

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Sustainability

  • Basic – WWF ‘One World’
  • Triple bottom line
  • CSR – Corporate Social Responsibility

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Sustainability

  • Leftish
  • Fairness
  • Simpler lives ?
  • Vaguely anti-International Corporation
  • Widely used to improve ‘image’

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Sustainability

  • Fundamentally correct
  • Has not succeeded as a movement

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Two game-changers

  • 1. Population
  • 2. Climate change

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Climate change is real

  • Stern Report
  • Inconvenient Truth
  • IPCC Reports
  • Royal Society

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Copenhagen Accord

below 2 degrees Celsius a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support.

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2 300 4 6 8 10 400 500 600 800 700 1000

GHG concentration stabilisation level (ppm CO2 (e)) Equilibrium global average temperature increase above pre-industrial (°C)

PPM 95 percentile Median 5 percentile

IPCC Temperature Rise

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Decarbonising the World

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Global Emissions (GtCO2e) 450ppm CO2e 500ppm CO2e 550ppm CO2e Business as Usual

(falling to 450ppm CO2e in 2150) 50GtCO2e 65GtCO2e 70GtCO2e

  • Stabilising below 450ppm CO2e would

require emissions to peak by 2010 with 6-10% p.a. decline thereafter

  • If emissions peak in 2020, we can stabilise

below 550ppm CO2e if we achieve annual declines of 1 – 2.5% afterward

  • A 10 year delay almost doubles

the annual rate of decline required

Delaying Mitigation is Dangerous and Costly

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80% UK Carbon Reduction Commitment

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 100% Reduction

21% 34% 80% 46% 65%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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2008 2013 2018

21% cut already achieved Projected trajectory to UK emissions targets

Jan 2010 2020 400 450 500 550 600

Source: Department for Energy & Climate Change

Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e)

34% CUT REQUIRED

BUDGET 1 (2008-2012) 3018 Mt CO2e BUDGET 2 (2013-2017) 2782 Mt CO2e BUDGET 3 (2018-2022) 2544 Mt CO2e Budgets Projections including Transition Plan policies

5 yr UK Carbon Budgets

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UNCERTAINTY CONSEQUENCES

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2°c ± appears inevitable

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Can we create economic growth not fuelled by fossil fuel ?

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40 years changed the world

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10 years introduce CO2E significant design constraint

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10 years introduce CO2E significant design constraint

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Ignore bankers

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it’s engineering that matters

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How do you become effective ? (you can still be nice)

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Don’t boil the ocean

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Do comparators

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Be prepared to be wrong

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Thank you

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