Sustainability Transition CREATIVE APOCALYPSE NOW CREATIVE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sustainability Transition

• The

The “ “End End” ” of History, Science, Art, Religion, etc.: exhaustion

• f History, Science, Art, Religion, etc.: exhaustion
• Maximum

Maximum “ “ennui ennui” ” point is just behind us: beginning point is just behind us: beginning “ “agitation agitation” ”

• Transition maximum is still (qualitatively) far ahead of us

Transition maximum is still (qualitatively) far ahead of us http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0509234 http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0509234

GREAT SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION BEGINS TODAY GREAT SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION BEGINS TODAY GREAT SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION BEGINS TODAY OPPOSITION TO TRANSITION CHANGES: LOSSES OPPOSITION TO TRANSITION CHANGES: LOSSES OPPOSITION TO TRANSITION CHANGES: LOSSES

• Discreteness: Transition

Discreteness: Transition is is a result of a result of all all system interactions system interactions

• One cannot overcome the (dynamic) entropy growth

One cannot overcome the (dynamic) entropy growth

• Unsuccessful transition is replaced by a

Unsuccessful transition is replaced by a death branch death branch

UNDERSTANDING OF TRANSITION DETAILS: GAINS UNDERSTANDING OF TRANSITION DETAILS: GAINS UNDERSTANDING OF TRANSITION DETAILS: GAINS

• Universal science of complexity

Universal science of complexity →

→ rigorous

rigorous, reliable futurology , reliable futurology CREATIVE APOCALYPSE NOW CREATIVE APOCALYPSE NOW

“progress” vs “decline”

time, t t dynamic entropy change, ∆ ∆S S, Hamiltonian (energy), ∆ ∆S/ S/∆ ∆t = H, E t = H, E ∆ ∆S S H H period of period of progress progress period of period of decline decline moments of happiness moments of ennui For For both both “ “progress progress” ” and and “ “decline decline” ”: : H H = = ∂ ∂S S/ /∂ ∂t t > 0 > 0 Progressive development (creation) Progressive development (creation): : W W = = ∂ ∂H H/ /∂ ∂t t = = ∂ ∂2

2S

S/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 > 0

> 0 Decline (decay, degradation) Decline (decay, degradation): : W W = = ∂ ∂H H/ /∂ ∂t t = = ∂ ∂2

2S

S/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 < 0

< 0 Max Max progress results ( progress results (“ “happiness happiness” ”): ): ∂ ∂H H/ /∂ ∂t t = = ∂ ∂2

2S

S/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 = 0,

= 0, ∂ ∂2

2H

H/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 < 0

< 0 Max Max decay results ( decay results (“ “ennui ennui” ”): ): ∂ ∂H H/ /∂ ∂t t = = ∂ ∂2

2S

S/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 = 0,

= 0, ∂ ∂2

2H

H/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 > 0

> 0 Transition Transition max max ( (“ “moment of truth moment of truth” ”): ): ∂ ∂2

2H

H/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 = 0,

= 0, ∂ ∂3

3H

H/ /∂ ∂t t3

3 < 0

< 0 Decline crisis ( Decline crisis (“ “moment of sin moment of sin” ”): ): ∂ ∂2

2H

H/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 = 0,

= 0, ∂ ∂3

3H

H/ /∂ ∂t t3

3 > 0

> 0 death branch

New kind of knowledge

http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/9806002 http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/9806002 BLIND (EMPIRICALLY BASED), BUT OMNIPOTENT R&D: REAL DANGER BLIND (EMPIRICALLY BASED), BUT OMNIPOTENT R&D: REAL DANGER

• Today

Today’ ’s empirical technology modifies the s empirical technology modifies the whole depth whole depth of complexity:

• f complexity:

high energies, genomics, biochemistry, ecosystem, society, high energies, genomics, biochemistry, ecosystem, society, psyche psyche Without equally complete knowledge Without equally complete knowledge only destruction

• nly destruction can result

can result CAUSALLY COMPLETE UNDERSTANDING OF REALITY: NO CAUSALLY COMPLETE UNDERSTANDING OF REALITY: NO “ “MODELS MODELS” ”

• Scholar science is an ultimately rough,

Scholar science is an ultimately rough, dynamically single dynamically single-

• valued

valued “ “model model” ” of the

• f the dynamically multivalued reality

dynamically multivalued reality: : anti anti-

• completeness,

completeness, including single including single-

• valued imitations of empirically defined

valued imitations of empirically defined “ “complexity complexity” ” Transition to the unreduced, complex dynamics is Transition to the unreduced, complex dynamics is vitally vitally important: important: One cannot fool Nature (contrary to funding bodies and taxp One cannot fool Nature (contrary to funding bodies and taxpayers) ayers) ONLY UNREDUCED KNOWLEDGE FOR SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION ONLY UNREDUCED KNOWLEDGE FOR SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION

• Universal science of complexity for the

Universal science of complexity for the “ “knowledge knowledge-

• based society

based society” ” Only unreduced science can guide the transition to sustainable l Only unreduced science can guide the transition to sustainable life ife SCIENCE REVOLUTION: UNREDUCED COMPLEXITY SCIENCE REVOLUTION: UNREDUCED COMPLEXITY

Complexity-increasing production

http://hal.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ccsd http://hal.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ccsd-

• 00004214

00004214 FROM DESTRUCTION TO CREATION BY COMPLEXITY BOOST FROM DESTRUCTION TO CREATION BY COMPLEXITY BOOST

• From

From declining to progressive phase: transition to superior complexi declining to progressive phase: transition to superior complexity ty

• Complexity

Complexity-

• driven

driven technologies: technologies: “ “bio bio-

• inspired

inspired” ” complexity growth complexity growth Creative Creative, not restrictive ecology concept , not restrictive ecology concept →

→ real sustainability

real sustainability UNIVERSAL CRITERION OF PROGRESS: UNIVERSAL CRITERION OF PROGRESS: ∂ ∂H H/ /∂ ∂t t = = ∂ ∂2

2S

S/ /∂ ∂t t2

2 >>

>> W Wdeath

death

• Self

Self-

• accelerated complexity development:

accelerated complexity development: sustainability by creation sustainability by creation

• Against

Against “ “sustainability sustainability” ” by restriction: entropy growth is invincible by restriction: entropy growth is invincible Unreduced science of complexity: unique basis for new production Unreduced science of complexity: unique basis for new production HUMAN ASPECTS OF NEW PRODUCTION: CREATIVE PERSONALITY HUMAN ASPECTS OF NEW PRODUCTION: CREATIVE PERSONALITY

• From massive and reductive to

From massive and reductive to individual individual and and creative creative technology technology

• From

From centralised and rigid to centralised and rigid to distributed distributed and and evolving evolving structure structure Complexity Complexity-

• driven production involves essential

driven production involves essential personal progress personal progress GROWTH WITHOUT DESTRUCTION GROWTH WITHOUT DESTRUCTION

Non-unitary social structure

FROM UNITARY TO HARMONICAL SYSTEM: THE LAST BASTILLE FROM UNITARY TO HARMONICAL SYSTEM: THE LAST BASTILLE

• Versions of Unitary System: totalitarian, democratic, meritocr

Versions of Unitary System: totalitarian, democratic, meritocratic atic

• Harmonical System:

Harmonical System: emerging emerging social order (cf. social order (cf. “ “market economy market economy” ”) ) Sustainability Transition: from Unitary to Harmonical Sustainability Transition: from Unitary to Harmonical complexity complexity HARMONICAL SYSTEM: UNREDUCED INTERACTION COMPLEXITY HARMONICAL SYSTEM: UNREDUCED INTERACTION COMPLEXITY

• Autonomous evolution of interacting (small)

Autonomous evolution of interacting (small) “ “management management” ” units units ≠ ≠ “ “NGO NGO” ” or

• r “

“free free-

• market

market” ” structures structures within within the Unitary System the Unitary System

• Superior democracy

Superior democracy: real, inevitable extension of unitary : real, inevitable extension of unitary “ “freedom freedom” ” Harmonical System is the Harmonical System is the unique unique way of way of any any further progress further progress THE PRICE TO PAY FOR HAPPINESS: DISTRIBUTED REVOLUTION THE PRICE TO PAY FOR HAPPINESS: DISTRIBUTED REVOLUTION

• High

High-

• order
• rder “

“phase transition phase transition” ”: growing : growing “ “seeds of freedom seeds of freedom” ” network network Complexity Complexity-

• based origin of Harmonical Future

based origin of Harmonical Future →

→ new science bliss

new science bliss ORDER WITHOUT GOVERNMENT: POWER OF IDEAS ORDER WITHOUT GOVERNMENT: POWER OF IDEAS http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0403084 http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0403084 NEW SCIENCE STRUCTURE NEW SCIENCE STRUCTURE

labour middle class elite

Replete Industry: Critical Instability

UNITARY SYSTEM: DEATH BY SUCCESS UNITARY SYSTEM: DEATH BY SUCCESS

“ “gravitational gravitational” ” attraction attraction to to material material basis basis pre pre-

• industrial unitary society

industrial unitary society post post-

• industrial unitary society

industrial unitary society

social social position position

industrial revolution industrial revolution

spinning top dynamics STABLE STABLE UNSTABLE UNSTABLE

unlimited unlimited

complexity growth complexity growth

sustainability transition sustainability transition

AFTER SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION AFTER SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION GROWTH CAN ONLY INCREASE STABILITY: GROWTH CAN ONLY INCREASE STABILITY: “ “LIVING ARBORESCENCE LIVING ARBORESCENCE” ” DYNAMICS DYNAMICS

New kind of settlement

http://hal.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ccsd http://hal.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ccsd-

• 00004214

00004214 BIO BIO-

• INSPIRED AND BIO

INSPIRED AND BIO-

• DOMINATED, DISTRIBUTED INFRASTRUCTURE

DOMINATED, DISTRIBUTED INFRASTRUCTURE

• Unitary infrastructure: centralised (urban), rigid, reductive,

Unitary infrastructure: centralised (urban), rigid, reductive, decadent decadent

• Harmonical infrastructure: man

Harmonical infrastructure: man-

• made

made “ “forest forest” ”, omnipresent, evolving , omnipresent, evolving Creation Creation, not , not “ “protection protection” ” of

• f “

“natural natural” ” (= (= complex complex) environment ) environment SETTLEMENTS SUBMERGED INTO CREATED SETTLEMENTS SUBMERGED INTO CREATED “ “NATURAL NATURAL” ” COMPLEXITY COMPLEXITY

• Harmonical interaction with nature

Harmonical interaction with nature →

→ growth

growth of natural complexity

• f natural complexity
• Complex

Complex-

• dynamic environment influence on man: complexity boost

dynamic environment influence on man: complexity boost The unreduced nature complexity should become again The unreduced nature complexity should become again our home

• ur home

NATURAL COMPLEXITY EVOLUTION: SUPERNATURE, NOOSPHERE NATURAL COMPLEXITY EVOLUTION: SUPERNATURE, NOOSPHERE

• From

From “ “biosphere biosphere” ” to to Supernature Supernature: : greater greater than than “ “natural natural” ” complexity complexity

• Noosphere

Noosphere: entangled intelligence and Supernature development : entangled intelligence and Supernature development H Harmonical evolution: armonical evolution: nondestructive nondestructive, , unlimited unlimited growth & diversity growth & diversity MAN MAN-

• MADE NATURE

MADE NATURE

Arts, Humanities, Theology Arts, Humanities, Theology

• Good

Good as (optimally) growing complexity as (optimally) growing complexity

• Beauty

Beauty as relative (attained) complexity as relative (attained) complexity

• Spirit

Spirit as unreduced higher complexity as unreduced higher complexity

Complex Complex-

• Dynamic Algebra of Harmony

Dynamic Algebra of Harmony

RIGOROUS UNDERSTANDING RIGOROUS UNDERSTANDING

OF OF

http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/9806002 http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/9806002 http://halshs.ccsd.cnrs.fr/halshs http://halshs.ccsd.cnrs.fr/halshs-

• 00010489

00010489

• Only

Only unreduced complexity has unlimited unlimited development perspectives: social social aspects

• Understanding of unreduced complexity is

essential also for its efficient imitations efficient imitations

• The unique, practically important case of

artificial artificial dynamic complexity: important connection to natural natural complexity studies

• The unique possibility for the new progress
• f fundamental science

fundamental science (otherwise “ending”)

Unreduced complexity perspectives

Complex-Dynamical Universe

http://arxiv.org/find/quant http://arxiv.org/find/quant-

• ph,gr

ph,gr-

• qc,physics/1/au:+Kirilyuk/0/1/0/all/0/1

qc,physics/1/au:+Kirilyuk/0/1/0/all/0/1

Cosmos

Nano ICT Bio

Dynamic Complexity Dynamic Complexity

Brain

From Elementary Particles to Consciousness From Elementary Particles to Consciousness

• Can

Can real real, higher , higher-

• complexity system dynamics

complexity system dynamics be understood at the be understood at the level of rigour level of rigour of

• f

Newtonian science? Newtonian science? Yes Yes

• The problem of

The problem of unreduced unreduced many many-

• body

body interaction interaction ( (unsolved unsolved in Newtonian science) in Newtonian science)

• The unique possibility for a new progress of

The unique possibility for a new progress of fundamental science fundamental science (otherwise (otherwise “ “ending ending” ”) )

• Universal Science of Complexity

Universal Science of Complexity

Rediscovered Complexity Rediscovered Complexity

Descartes Descartes – – Newton Newton -

• Descartes

Descartes

References

[1] A.P. Kirilyuk, “Complex Dynamics of Autonomous Communication Networks and the Intelligent Communication Paradigm”, Report at the International Workshop on Autonomic Communication (Berlin, 18-19 Oct 2004), E-print physics/0412058 at http://arXiv.org. [2] A.P. Kirilyuk, “Emerging Consciousness as a Result of Complex-Dynamical Interaction Process”, Report presented at the EXYSTENCE workshop Machine Consciousness: Complexity Aspects (Turin, 29 Sep - 1 Oct 2003), E-print physics/0409140 at http://arXiv.org. [3] A.P. Kirilyuk, “Dynamically Multivalued, Not Unitary or Stochastic, Operation of Real Quantum, Classical and Hybrid Micro-Machines”, E-print physics/0211071 at http://arXiv.org. [4] A.P. Kirilyuk, Universal Concept of Complexity by the Dynamic Redundance Paradigm: Causal Randomness, Complete Wave Mechanics, and the Ultimate Unification of Knowledge (Kyiv: Naukova Dumka: 1997). For a non-technical review see also: E-print physics/9806002. [5] A.P. Kirilyuk, “Dynamically Multivalued Self-Organisation and Probabilistic Structure Formation Processes”, Solid State Phenomena 97-98 (2004) 21-26. E-print physics/0405063. [6] A.P. Kirilyuk, “Universal Symmetry of Complexity and Its Manifestations at Different Levels

• f World Dynamics”, Proceedings of Institute of Mathematics of NAS of Ukraine 50 (2004) 821-
• 828. E-print physics/0404006 at http://arXiv.org.

[7] A.P. Kirilyuk, “Complex-Dynamical Extension of the Fractal Paradigm and Its Applications in Life Sciences”, In: G.A. Losa, D. Merlini, T.F. Nonnenmacher, and E.R. Weibel (Eds.), Fractals in Biology and Medicine, Vol. IV (Basel: Birkhäuser: 2005) 233–244. E-print physics/0502133. [8] A.P. Kirilyuk, “Complex Dynamics of Real Nanosystems: Fundamental Paradigm for Nanoscience and Nanotechnology”, Nanosystems, Nanomaterials, Nanotechnologies 2 (2004) 1085–1090. E-print physics/0412097 at http://arXiv.org.