Sustainability Myths By Richard Stratton Setting the Scene One - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sustainability Myths

By Richard Stratton

Setting the Scene

One Planet Company

We try to practice what we preach

• World’s first consultancy

to be formally endorsed as a One Planet Company by sustainability charity BioRegional

• Applied the 10

One Planet Principles to guide our commitment, actions and services

• Cundall Sustainability

Roadmap available on www.cundall.com

Climate Change not Sustainability

What’s really warming the world

Skeptics of manmade climate change offer various natural causes to explain why the Earth has warmed 1.4 degC since 1880. Can these account for the planet’s rising temperature?

Observed KEY Observed

This line shows the measured, or “observed,” land-ocean temperature

Source File : Bloomberg Business http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

based on findings from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Is it the Earth’s orbit?

Observed Orbital Changes KEY Observed Orbital Changes

The Earth wobbles on its axis, and its tilt orbit change over many thousands of years, pushing the climate into and out of ice ages. Influence of orbital changes has been negligible

95% Confidence

Source File : Bloomberg Business

Is it the sun?

Observed Solar KEY Observed Solar 95% Confidence

The sun’s temperature varies over decades and centuries. Sun’s change has had negligible effect.

Source File : Bloomberg Business

Is it volcanoes?

Human industry emits about 100 times more CO2 than volcanic activity, and eruptions release sulfate chemicals that can actually cool the atmosphere for a year or two.

Observed Volcanic KEY Observed Volcanic 95% Confidence

Source File : Bloomberg Business

Observed

Is it all three of these things combined?

Adding the natural factors together doesn’t add up.

Orbital Changes Volcanic Solar KEY Observed Orbital Changes Solar Volcanic Natural Factors 95% Confidence Natural Factors

Source File : Bloomberg Business

So if it’s not nature, is it deforestation?

KEY Observed Land Use . 95% Confidence Observed Land Use

Humans have cut, plowed, and paved more than half the Earth’s land surface. Dark forests are yielding to lighter patches, which reflect more sunlight - and have a slight cooling effect.

Source File : Bloomberg Business

Or ozone pollution?

Natural ozone blocks harmful sunlight and cools slightly. Closer to Earth, pollution related ozone makes the climate a little hotter – but not much.

Observed KEY Observed Ozone 95% Confidence Ozone

Source File : Bloomberg Business

Or aerosol pollution?

Some pollutants cool the atmosphere, like sulfate aerosols from coal-burning. Offsets some of the warming – but causes acid rain

KEY Observed Aerosols 95% Confidence Aerosols Observed

Source File : Bloomberg Business

No, it really is greenhouse gases

Observed

Atmospheric CO2 levels are 40% higher than they were in 1750.

KEY Observed Greenhouse Gases 95% Confidence Greenhouse gases

Source File : Bloomberg Business

See for yourself

Together HUMAN FACTORS match the observed temperature change - particularly since 1950.

KEY Observed Land Use Ozone Aerosols Greenhouse Gases 95% Confidence Human factors Land Use Ozone Aerosols Greenhouse gases Observed Human Factors

Source File : Bloomberg Business

Compare and contrast

Combining natural and human causes of climate change demonstrates the dominance of greenhouse gases What are we going to do about it?

NATURAL FACTORS HUMAN FACTORS Volcanic Solar Orbital Changes Greenhouse gases Aerosols Ozone Land Use Observed All Factors 95% Confidence

Source File : Bloomberg Business

• Everything is okay – doesn't look like it

– Plan A because there is no Plan B (M&S) – ..cut CO2 by 20%, 30% etc… (of what???) – 20% Renewable Energy (of what???)

• Is any of this enough – does anyone really know?

Industry perception

Myanmar July 2015

Energy = no. of people x expectations consumption efficiency CO2 = energy x type of fuel

Energy & Carbon – buildings & globally

Sources: UN, The Economist

+33% against 2015 +53% against 2015

The News

The News

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The IPCC is a scientific body under the auspices of the United Nations Currently 195 countries are members of the IPCC http://www.ipcc.ch/

Rising Sea Levels

The rate at which the global oceans have risen in the past two decades is more significant than previously recognised, say US- based scientist. 200mm rise

Hurricane Sandy

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere

261 years 2100 Gt CO2 = average 8Gt per annum Last 41 years 1100 Gt CO2 = average 27Gt per annum Currently at 30 to 35 Gt per annum

Rate of Increase CO2 in the atmosphere

Total Carbon Budget in the atmosphere

New Budget Limit to avoid >2degC rise 820 Gt CO2 by 2011 already emitted 515Gt CO2 At current rates Budget Limit will be reached by 2021

Where we need to be Where we are heading

Droughts & Floods

• Food shortages
• Rising prices
• Reducing income
• Population dislocation

& migration

• Competition for

resources

• Conflict

Dried up irrigation gully Current flooding in Gaza

Meeting the rising energy demand

OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

Fossil Fuels

81% in 2000 75% in 2030

Renewables

13% in 2000 18% in 2030

17 12.6

34%

We are simply adding energy sources not displacing any

Oil

valuable natural resource

Preservation of reserves

provide economic sustainability for future generations

Minimise local demand

through a combination of energy efficient design and use of renewable energy strategies

Meeting the rising energy demand

Example

A development of the scale of King Abdullah City Considering 20% energy reduction and 10% renewable energy could save 34 million barrels of oil per year (0.8% of annual production) Prolongation of oil reserves for future generations Full market value available on preserved

• il reserves.

Meeting the rising energy demand

What about the trees?

Realistically? …

A Maple in 25 yrs absorbs 1/3 of a tonne of CO2 (0.013 T/annum) A Pine in 25 yrs absorbs 1.7 tonnes of CO2 (0.068 T/annum)

To offset current annual global CO2 emissions need 5,100,000,000,000 Pine Trees or 40,000,000 km2

(approx. 4 x China)

Will Renewables reverse this

Great, but can't be replicated and unpredictable

Graphene

• Photovoltaic Panels
• Currently – 17% output
• In the future?
• The problem is time

…the new wonder material? … Discovered in the University of Manchester

COP 21 - Dec 2015 Paris

December 2015, the world will gather in Paris to secure a legally binding, global climate change agreement with emission reduction commitments from all countries for the first time ever. The fall in the price of oil removes one big incentive for the developed world to invest in renewables and greater energy efficiency. Lima summit 2014

Tonnes per capita 2015

US 17 Aus 16.7 China 6.7 HK 5.7 Singapore 4.3 Libya 6.4 Qatar 43.9 UAE 20.1 UK 8.3 Spain 7.1 Poland 8.3 Romania 3.9

Source – The World Bank

40 year Challenge

What can I do (at home)? What can I do (at work) What can we (Cundall) do?

The Challenge

http://calculator.bioregional.com/step01.php

Change behaviour…

Visualise the Alternative

Running cars on biofuels

Source: David MacKay, Without Hot Air

Running cars on biofuels

Source: David MacKay, Without Hot Air

Biofuel in buildings v vehicles

10 litres of recycled cooking oil CHP Truck

23kgCO2e CO2e saving 27kgCO2e 45% Extra fuel cost 0% Lots Capital cost Zero

Biofuel works better in transport Why waste it in buildings?

CHP in building connected to grid electricity and natural gas CHP efficiency Heat to power output ratio = 1.5 Efficiency = 75% No heat rejected Emission factors (kgCO2e/kWh) Recycled oil = 0.06 Diesel = 0.32 Grid electricity = 0.6 Natural gas = 0.2 Fuel Costs Biofuel & diesel = 70 p/litre (1 litre of fuel = 10 kWh)` Grid electricity = 10 p/kWh Nat gas =3.5 p/kWh

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Natural gas Diesel / petrol Biofuel Recycled cooking oil

kgCO2e / kWh

Not all biofuels are low carbon

Source: “Carbon and Sustainability Reporting Within the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation: Technical Guidance Part Two - Carbon Reporting – Default Values and Fuel Chains” version 2.1 published in July 2010 by UK Renewable Fuel Agency.

67% 9% 24%

Operating Embodied Transport

Operating: 150kgCO2e/m2/year Embodied (initial): 700kgCO2e/m2 Embodied (in-use): 550kgCO2e/m2 Commuting: 800kgCO2e/person/year 60 year period No energy supply decarbonisation included

Typical London air con office

Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 2013

14% 15% 71%

Operating: 20kgCO2e/m2/year Embodied (initial): 700kgCO2e/m2 Embodied (in-use): 550kgCO2e/m2 Commuting: 1500kgCO2e/person/year 60 year period No energy supply decarbonisation included

Nearly zero energy office – UK rural

Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 201300

Operating Embodied Transport

Operating: 185kgCO2e/m2/year Embodied (initial): 950kgCO2e/m2 Embodied (in-use): 675kgCO2e/m2 Commuting: 1,875kgCO2e/person/year 60 year period No energy supply decarbonisation included

Typical UAE air con office

Embodied (initial): Embodied (in

54% 8% 38%

Operating Embodied Transport

Water

Do we use too much? Do we have too little? Do we know how much we use?

1 2 3

How much?

• 200 years ago a bath a year
• 30 years ago a bath a week
• 2015 – 3 showers per day
• What is the correct level of cleanliness

– too much washing = eczema

Consumption is cheap 5 minute shower 50l < AED 1.0 Bath 180l = AED 2.0 Washing Teeth = 15 Fils Washing Machine < AED 2.0

But – desalination has a carbon penalty

• New technology – 1.5 – 3 kg CO2 per m3
• Old technology – 1.5 – 3 kg CO2 per m3

Consumption costs in Dubai almost the same as the UK

Water scarcity in 2025 “There are only 2 to 5 days emergency water reserves for domestic use in the UAE and regions”

Gulfnews 21 September 2007 – study by Dr Mohammad Dawoud Manager, Water Resources Department Abu Dhabi Environment Agency

Water sources

100 200 300 400 500 600

Litres per person per day l/c/d

International Water Consumption 2007

Water use per capita

Future Benchmark??

65% Reduction

Water use by sector – UAE

Residential 59% Government 11% Commercial 25% Industrial 5% Dubai Water Consumption 2006

Total=64,926 MIG

Where is water used - commercial

Source: Water Efficiency in Offices, Australian Government

Where is water used - residential

40% to 50% could be low grade non-potable 20% to 40% could be high grade non-potable

• Project water cycle analysis required. The system must be
• balanced. Set design rules

Avoiding use of water (water demand)

Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenance AC Cooling Water Feature Makeup Swimming Pool Evap/Makeup Swimming Pool Backwash Irrigation

• 200000

200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 Litres/Day

• n

Base Daily Water Demand

Waste Foul Water Use

Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenance AC Cooling Water Feature Makeup Swimming Pool Evap/Makeup Swimming Pool Backwash Irrigation

• 50000

50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 m3/Year

• n

Base Annual Water Demand

Waste Foul Water Use

Avoiding use of water (water demand)

• Why??

Water Balance – Base Demand Luxury Residential with Lush Landscaping

Available waste water equates to only 12% of demand Available waste water equates to only 17% of demand

Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenance AC Cooling Water Feature Makeup Swimming Pool Evap/Makeup Swimming Pool Backwash Irrigation

• 200000
• 100000

100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 Litres/Day

• n

Enhanced Daily Water Demand

Waste Foul Water Use

Potable Water Cleaning/Maintenance AC Cooling Water Feature Makeup Swimming Pool Evap/Makeup Swimming Pool Backwash Irrigation

• 60000
• 40000
• 20000

20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 m3/Year

• n

Enhanced Annual Water Demand

Waste Foul Water Use

Avoiding use of water (water demand)

• Why??

Available waste water equates to only 21% of demand Available waste water equates to only 28% of demand

Water Balance – Enhanced Efficiency Residential with Lush Landscaping

Better U-Values?

Carbon Content of an email

Best Orientation?

330°

Incident wind velocity [m/s] 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 <10.0

000° 030° 090° 060° 300° 120° 180° 150° 210° 270° 240°

N

External Shading- Horizontal or Vertical

Orientation External Shading- Horizontal or Vertical

Plants not Plant

Photosynthesis

Known symbiotic relationship

VOC removal Break down VOC into CO2 and H2O Microbes in soil

Innovation- Plants and Air Quality

The Experiment

David Brownstein

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Typical Office Living Wall kgCO2/m2

Annual CO2 Emission Rates

Internal Lighting Fans Pumps Heat rejection fans Condenser pumps Cooling - Air Cooling - Space Heating DHW

Implication of Living Wall

7.3% reduction in CO2

• 10% less ventilation air / less cooling
• 30% reduction in fan energy

Conclusion- VOC

• Removal is by microbes in the roots
• Potted plants have poor exposure of the soil.

Living Wall Biofilter

How do they perform?

The biowall can supply 100l/m2/sec? Equates to air for 10 people

Application- Winter Garden = Plant Room

External Air PM10 PM 2.5 VOC & CO2 180m2 of Living Wall for South Building

Hydroponic Wall

• Improved Air Quality
• Added Biodiversity
• Passive Free Cooling

Living Wall

Daylight Factors Fixed overcast sky i.e. ignores the sun 2% minimum daylight factor Daylighting

Climate Based Daylight Modelling (CBDM) An hourly calculation considering the sun and cloud Set minimum and maximum Daylighting

Climate Based Daylight Modelling Two new metrics:

• 1. Useful Daylight Index (UDI) - 80%
• f the occupied hours, between

100-3000 lux.

• 2. Daylight Autonomy (DA) –

typically 150 Lux for 50% of the space for the occupied hours.

Daylighting

Key Features Light redirection

Daylighting

Key Features Higher Ceilings Windows up to soffit

Daylighting

Is energy too cheap to drive change?

Is energy too cheap to drive change?

60% 64% 13% 19% 15% 10% 10% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% UK London Rent Rates Service Charge Energy Consumption Utilities / Standing Charges

Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 2013

Energy costs 5 to 10% of office occupancy cost

Tenants just aren’t interested in energy

“Between 2001 and 2011 not one prospective tenant enquired about the energy performance of a building before signing a lease, and only a handful asked about energy after the lease was signed.”

Head of lettings, de-brief pending his retirement from a major quoted property company (>1 million m2)

Biggest cost is people

Source: What Colour Is Your Building, David Clark, RIBA Publishing 2013

£0 £1,000 £2,000 £3,000 £4,000 £5,000 £6,000

Employee Costs Rent Rates Service Charge Energy Consumption Utilities / Standing Charges

Annual cost per m2 of NLA Assumptions Average salary = £43,000 Employment cost (training, etc) = 30% Occupancy Density = 1 per 10m2 of NLA 7% 0.6% 2% 1% 89% < 0.5%

CUNDALL Dubai – Energy 0.53% CUNDALL Doha – Energy 0.58%

Based on A/C only – no mixed mode (C rating with) H 176-200 I

201-225

J

226-250

K 251-275

269

Computer Model

C/D

Actual Energy

G ++

Considering Real Energy Consumption

EPC v actual consumption

EPC Ratings Actual energy consumption

No correlation between EPC (design) and measured energy consumption (reality)

Source: A Tale of Two Buildings, JLL / BBP, 2012

19.8% 17% 4.2% 10.6% 5 10 15 20 25 TAS IES IES SBEM ISBEM

TAS IES IES SBEM ISBEM

Energy Modelling

Approved Software comparison

Energy Modelling

81% Refurb / Cat A fitout every 15 years, excludes Cat B fitout 77% Need to consider Actual energy not modelled energy – i.e. LEED could be 50% lower

5,515m2 Campus Service Centre Constructed for <AED 4,000/m2 Solar Hot Water Heating - 5 Years payback Mini District Cooling System - 6 Years payback Sun Pipes - 10 Years payback Building Energy Performance ≈190kWh/m2/annum UK ECON 19 347 kWh/m2/annum 195kWh/m2/annum EGBC Green Building of Year 2015

30% Savings 30% Savings

5,515m2 Campus Service Centre Solar Hot Water Heating

American University of Sharjah

Can I harness the power

• f my dancing?

Dancing energy

Don’t get distracted by gimmicks

London Olympic games trial

• ne million people

generated “72 million joules of energy” This equates to 20 kWh saving £2 in electricity

8.5 Ws per footfall

Example 1,000 people x 260 days = 0.61 kWh per year. 6p per year cost saving One 50W halogen lamp for 12 hours / year

Do the maths!

Local and Sustainable Food

Food Supplies

• Over 7 billion people
• 200 thousand born every day
• Millions starve vs increasing
• besity & diabetes.

Local and Sustainable Food

27% attributed to food

Carbon Footprint

Cheese v Chicken?

Food Carbon Footprint Comparison

Myth

Fact

Low carbon Hoofprint

Innovation required 30% reduction in carbon emission as a result of modified feed.

Food seasonality and low carbon diet thoughts

SEASON OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES F R U I T WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Apples Apples (Bramley) Apples (cox) Rhubarb Blackcurrants Cherries Damson Pears Plums Quince Strawberries Raspberries Blackberries

Food seasonality and low carbon diet thoughts

SEASON OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES V E G E T A B L E S WINTER SPRING SUMMER AUTUMN Dec. Jan. Feb. March Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Cabbage Asparagus Beetroot Brussels Sprouts Broccoli Carrots Cauliflower Celery Celeriac Leeks Marrow Potatoes (Maincrop) Lettuce Parsnip Peas Runner Beans Swede Sweetcorn

To Bee or not to bee

To Bee or not to bee

Honey Eater Hoverfly Ant Butterflies Moths Beetles

Effective Land Use

Effective Land Use

Organic farming uses 20-25% more land for the same

• utput as Conventional methods with no proven health
• benefits. Could that land be better used?

Effective Land Use

Summary

How many planets are you?

I am 3.6 Planets

Richard Stratton

One Planet Living

What can I do? What can we do? We need a sense of urgency