Supervisor: Prof. Hiroaki Ueda Erdenebadrakh Munkhjargal Graduate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Erdenebadrakh Munkhjargal Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Tsukuba

Supervisor: Prof. Hiroaki Ueda

Climate, M2 (st.ID 201225024)

2013

Outline:

1

• General background

2

• Objective of the study

3

• Previous study

4

• Result: (Climatology in Mongolia)

5

• Conclusion

6

• Future study

1/14

General background

2/14

climate: arid and semi-arid altitude: 1580m

Distribution of air temperature, (Jan) & Annual precipitation

Annual temperature is increased by 2.10C since 1940 and annual precipitation is decreased by 0.7% compare to climate normal since 1940

Objective of the study

One major reason is to study that nomadic livestock husbandry is one of the important parts of the society of

• Mongolia. Is it highly depends weather condition. Even a few

centimeters of snow accumulation in Mongolia can cause big effect the livestock. Thus, the ability to provide long-term forecasts of snowfall is important 3/14

Previous study

4/14

Frequency of cyclogenesis

• Mt. Altai
• Sayan

Adachi and Kimura., 2007.

Snow fall variation is related atmospheric circulation

Xinmin Wang et al. 1999 Differences in annual counts

• f extratropical cyclones between

1980-2001 and 1958-1979

• n

the northern Asia

The highest frequency

• f

cyclogenesis was located over the Mongolian Plateau, on the lee side of Altai-Sayan Mountain

Previous study

In the future climate experiments shows number of intense cyclones a significant increase whereas the number

• f total cyclones a significant decrease

Ryo Mizuta, (2012)

5/14

Multi model ensemble means of change from the historical run.

Previous study

In the future climate experiments shows number of intense cyclones a significant increase whereas the number

• f total cyclones a significant decrease

Ryo Mizuta, (2012)

5/14

Multi model ensemble means of change from the historical run. < Meridional gradient>

The lower troposphere warming in the tropics is weaker than high latitudes, resulting in a weakened MTG. In upper troposphere, the MTG is enhanced due to much stronger warming in the tropics than in high latitudes. Which may suppress number of cyclone Which may enhance storm track activity

6/14

Location of meteorological stations

Data Used 80 meteorological stations: 1969-2012 Snow depth, Number of snow day and Surface temperature

Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (IMH)

Location of meteorological stations

Results, current condition 7/14 Monthly mean snow depth in northern Eurasia, Japan & Mongolia

home.Hayasaki.JMA_data montly _reportsurface_obs-climate.gmt

• 0.25cm / 10 year

1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Annual snow depth in Mongolia (1969—2012)

Results 8/14

• 0.32/10 year
• 0.33/10 year

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Annual snow depth in Northern and Southern parts (1969—2012)

north south

• 6.0
• 4.0
• 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Mongolia Surface temperature anomalies – DJF Judah L Cohen and et al. 2011

Results, current condition

NH Land temperatures anomalies - DJF Cohen et al. (2013, Environ. Res. Lett.) Observed trend: NH = 0.05 0C /10 year Mongolia= -0.8 0C /10 year The surface temperature has increased lineally from mid 1960s, while the air temperature in the Stratosphere temperature salient decreasing trend, which is consistent with radiative -convective equilibrium theory.

9/14

DJF ON MA

Results, current condition

The spatial pattern of linear trends in DJF, ON, MA snow depth (cm/year), 1988-2012

The red (blue) shaded areas indicate positive (negative) coefficient.

10/14

y = 0.0232x + 4.8864 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 [cm]

DJF mean snow depth

y = 0.0101x + 5.6378 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

January

y = -0.0016x + 5.7917 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 [cm]

February

y = 0.0131x + 4.6003 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

March

y = -0.0301x + 3.407 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

April

y = -0.0586x + 3.1911 1 2 3 4 5

October

y = -0.009x + 3.3548 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 November

y = 0.0448x + 4.0379 2 4 6 8 10

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

[cm]

December

Increasing Decreasing

DJF 0.2cm/10 year Annual -0.05cm/10 year January 0.1cm/10 year February -0.012cm/10 year March 0.1cm/10 year April

• 0.3cm/10 year

December 0.5cm/10 year May

• 0.4cm/10 year

October

• 0.6cm/10 year

November

• 0.1cm/10 year

Results

60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 180.0 200.0 220.0 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Number of day with snow cover in Mongolia

All Mongolia North part South part

All Mongolia Northern part Southern part + 2.0 day/10 year + 2.6 day/10 year + 1.3 day / 10 year

12/14

8/8

Future study

• 1. Evaluate of cyclic activity such as frequency of surface

cyclogenesis over the Mongolia

• 2. Cyclone track
• 3. Relationship between snowfall variation and cyclones.

Data:

• in situ observation data SLP, AT, ST, WS (1975-2012) at 40 Met Stations
• Reanalyze data JRA55, ERA-40 (1981-2000)
• CMIP5 data (6 hourly)

Continental-scale snow cover extent is a potentially sensitive indicator of climate change. In Mongolia, snow fall process is very closely related with synoptic disturbance embedded in the westerly Jet. Ueda et al (2003) demonstrated that springtime diminishment of snow is regulated through not only surface temperature but also cyclonic activity relevant to the meridional warm air advection.

Future Study

14/14

References:

Batima ma., , P., D. Dagvadorj, 2000: Climate te Change and Its Impacts in Mongoli lia.

• a. JEMR.

Publis blishi hing: : Ulaanbaatar

• nbaatar. Mongolia,

lia, 25pp. Ueda, H., M. Shinoda and H. Kamahori ri, , 2003: : Spring northwa hward rd retreat at of Eurasian ian snow cover r relevant ant to seas asonal nal and interann rannual ual variations tions of atmospheric heric circulat lation.

• ion. Int.

J.

• J. Climato

tol., , 23, 615 , 615-629. 29. Adachi, i, S. a and F. Ki Kimura, 2007: A 3 36 year climato atology of surface ce i in the east t Asia using high- resolution lution reanalysis alysis data. SOLA, 3, 113-116. 16. Morinag inaga, a, Y., S. F

• F. Tain and M. Shinodo.2003:

.2003: Winter r snow anomaly aly and atmospheric heric circulati ulation n in Mongolia.

• lia. Int. J. Climato

atol., ., 23, 1627-1636. 1636. Mizuta, ta, R., M. Matsue ueda and H. Endo, 2011: : Future re change in extrotro tropical ical cyclone nes associated ciated with change in the upper troposphere here. . Int. J. Climato tol., , 24, 6456- 6470. 0.

• Wang. X

and P. Zhai, 2009: Variation tions s in extratro tropical ical cyclone ne activity ity in norther hern n east t Asia, , advance ces in atmospher heric ic Science ces., , 26(3), 471-479 79 . Shinod noda, M., Y. Komatsu u and H. U Ueda, 2011: 1: Snowmelt lt and land-surfa urface ce heating ing processes

• ver easte

tern rn Mongolia.

• lia. SOLA, 7, 1-4.

4. Hayasaki aki, M., S. Sugata and H.L.Tan anaka aka, , 2006: : Interann rannual ual variations tions of cold front activity ity in springt ngtime Mongoli lia.

• a. J. math ournal

al of the Meteoro rological logical Society ty of Japan, , Vol. 84,

• No. 3, pp. 4

463—475. 5. Koike ke Takako ako, Masato ato Shinodo and Purevjav jav Gombolu luude udev,2010: ,2010: Cold and warm deep snow winters rs in Mongoli lia.

• a. J.agric.

. Meteoro rol. . 66(2), 103-110. 10. Shou-Ju Jun n Chen and Ying-HwaK aKuo uo.( .(1990) 1990): : Synoptic ic climato atology of cyclogenesis nesis over the East Asia,1958 a,1958-1987.

• 1987. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1407–1418.

1418.

Thank you very much for attention.