[PPT] - Suburbia, Soccer Moms, SUVs and Smart Growth RCLCO RCLCO Public PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Suburbia, Soccer Moms, SUVs and Smart Growth RCLCO P bli St t i G RCLCO – Public Strategies Group Shyam Kannan, Principal and PSG Director skannan@rclco.com

New Partners for Smart Growth | February 2, 2012

SLIDE 2

Practice Areas

 Urban Development

RCLCO is a land use economics

firm delivering real estate

 Urban Development  Community Development  Economic Development  Management Consulting

strategies, market intelligence, and implementation assistance

Offices  Washington, DC  Los Angeles  Austin  Orlando

RCLCO

AUSTIN │ LOS ANGELES │ ORLANDO │ WASHINGTON, D.C .

SLIDE 3

THE STORY REMAINS THE SAME

PRE-RECESSION ~~ POST-RECESSION

23% of respondents 55-59 years of

age most likely to purchase small lot

85% Preference for Single- Family Detached Home

age most likely to purchase small-lot single family detached (14% of those 60+ and 13% of those 50-54 do, as well)

82% 75% 80% 85%

Family and pre-family buyers

distributed between increased preference for townhome or condo

68% 65% 70% 75%

preference for townhome or condo products and custom homes

55% 60% 50% Current Home Future Desired Home

Source: RCLCO 2007

RCLCO

2

Home

Source: RCLCO 2007

SLIDE 4

Americans and Smart Growth

RCLCO

3

SLIDE 5

MOVING TO MIXED USE

2004 NAR SURVEY – EXISTING VS PREFERRED LOCATIONS

10 00% 15.00% 5.00% 10.00% 0.00% Downtown City, Residential Rural Small Town Suburb (Mixed) Suburb (Resi) Gen Y Gen X Boomer Eisenhower

5.00%

Eisenhower

10.00%

RCLCO

4

15.00%

SLIDE 6

MOVING TO MIXED USE

2010 NAR SURVEY – EXISTING VS PREFERRED LOCATIONS

10 00% 15.00% 5.00% 10.00% 0.00% Downtown City, Residential Rural Small Town Suburb (Mixed) Suburb (Resi) Gen Y Gen X Boomer Eisenhower

5.00%

Eisenhower

10.00%

RCLCO

5

15.00%

SLIDE 7

SMART GROWTH PREFERENCE

BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE

85 216 116 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 8A 94 202 149 8B 236 592 381 9 237 555 397 10 179 379 230 11 HH Single No Children HH>1 No Children HH>1 Children

RCLCO

6

HH Single, No Children HH>1, No Children HH>1, Children

SLIDE 8

SMART GROWTH PREFERENCE

BY HOUSEHOLD AGE

136 121 96 64 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 8A 159 129 119 38 8B 384 379 329 117 9 407 370 308 104 10 298 213 199 78 11

RCLCO

7

18-34 35-54 55-69 70+

SLIDE 9

SMART GROWTH PREFERENCE

BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME

196 97 124 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 8A 222 77 146 8B 619 236 354 9 604 204 382 10 420 142 226 11

RCLCO

8

Low Mid High

SLIDE 10

PSYCHOGRAPHICS 101

UNDERSTANDING THE PEOPLE BEHIND THE NUMBERS

Psychographic analysis describes categorization driven by personality values attitudes by personality, values, attitudes, interests, or lifestyles. It can be contrasted with demographic variables (such as demographic variables (such as age and gender), behavioral variables (such as usage rate or loyalty), and firmographic variables (such as industry, variables (such as industry, seniority and functional area).

RCLCO

9

SLIDE 11

PSYCHOGRAPHICS OF SMART GROWTH

NOT WHAT WE EXPECTED TO FIND!

Smart Growth-Favorable LifeMode Groups

16.7 7.2 15.4 15.1 7.3 9.9 9.5 9.5 9.3 High Society Upscale Avenues Global Roots Family Portrait Traditional Living Senior Styles Metropolis Solo Acts Other Groups

RCLCO

10

SLIDE 12

GEN Y DRIVING THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE

RE-URBANIZING AMERICA THROUGH RECOVERY

RCLCO Consumer Research shows:  77% of Generation Y plan to live in an Urban Core, and is re-urbanizing America year over year  This is where the future of growth is – capturing Gen Y will be critical to economic vitality through 2050 4,000,000 4,100,000 4,200,000 3,700,000 3,800,000 3,900,000 3 400 000 3,500,000 3,600,000 , , 3,400,000 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 1 4 2 1 5 2 1 6 2 1 7 2 1 8 2 1 9 2 2

Number of 22 Year Olds Same 22 Year Olds Turn 25

RCLCO

11

NOTE: Number of 22-year olds is based upon birth rate and does not factor in death rates and migration. SOURCE: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

SLIDE 13

HOW BIG IS THE MARKET FOR SMART GROWTH?

ALMOST HALF OF THE ANNUAL MARKET WANTS TO WALK

600,000 700,000 500,000 300,000 400,000 Gen Y Gen X Boomers Eisenhowers 200,000 100,000 Prefer Downtown Prefer City, Residential Prefer Small Town Prefer Rural Prefer Suburb, Mixed Use Prefer Suburb, Residential Only

RCLCO

12

Residential Mixed Use Residential Only

SLIDE 14

HOW BIG IS THE MARKET FOR SMART GROWTH?

ALMOST HALF OF THE ANNUAL MARKET WANTS TO WALK

3,500,000 4,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Gen Y Gen X Boomers Eisenhowers 1,000,000 1,500,000 Eisenhowers 500,000 Prefer Downtown Prefer City, Prefer Small Town Prefer Rural Prefer Suburb, Prefer Suburb,

RCLCO

13

y, Residential , Mixed Use , Residential Only

SLIDE 15

Americans and Transit Oriented Development

RCLCO

14

SLIDE 16

WHAT DOES THE REALTORS SURVEY SAY?

EXPLORING PREFERENCES FOR TRANSIT

18. In deciding where to live, indicate how important it would be to you to have each
f the following within an easy walk: very important, somewhat important, not very

important, or not at all important RANDOMIZE a‐j AND PUT CODES ACROSS THE TOP (Q18a) a. Schools (Q18b) b Grocery store (Q18b) b. Grocery store (Q18c) c. Pharmacy or drug store (Q18d) d. Doctors’ offices (Q18e) e. Cultural resources like libraries or theaters (Q ) (Q18f) f. Recreational facilities like swimming, golf, or tennis (Q18g) g. A hospital (Q18h) h. (SPLIT SAMPLE COMBINED) Public transportation by (bus/rail) (Q18h_a) h. (SPLIT SAMPLE A) Public transportation by bus (Q18h_b) h. (SPLIT SAMPLE B) Public transportation by rail (Q18i) i. Restaurants (Q 8j) j Ch h h l f hi

RCLCO

15

(Q18j) j. Church, synagogue, or other place of worship

Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO

SLIDE 17

WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY?

ONE QUARTER OF THE MARKET WANTS FIXED RAIL TRANSIT

23% 76% Households with preference for Fixed Rail Transit Households without preference for Fixed Rail Transit

RCLCO

16

Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO

SLIDE 18

WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY?

ONE QUARTER OF THE MARKET WANTS FIXED RAIL

22.5%

2+ with Children

Preference by Household Type

19.7%

70+

Preference by Age Group

28.7% 21.8%

Single No Children 2+ No Children

25.9% 22.9% 21.9%

18-34 35-54 55-69 500 1000 1500 2000 Transit Preference Total Respondents 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Transit Preference Total Respondents

Preference byIncome Level

21.1% 21.4%

Mid High

Preference by Income Level

25.7%

500 1000 1500 2000 Low

RCLCO

17

Transit Preference Total Respondents

Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO

SLIDE 19

WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY?

PREFERENCES IN METRO AREAS WITHOUT RAIL TRANSIT

70%

Transit Preference Among Respondents in Metropolitan Areas with No Existing Rail Transit

50% 60% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 0% Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High 18-34 35-54 55-69 70+ Single No Children 2+ No Children 2+ with Children

RCLCO

18

Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO

SLIDE 20

WHAT DOES THE SURVEY SAY?

PREFERENCES IN METRO AREAS WITH RAIL TRANSIT

70%

Transit Preference Among Respondents in Metropolitan Areas with Existing Rail Transit

50% 60% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 0% Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High Low Mid High 18-34 35-54 55-69 70+ Single No Children 2+ No Children 2+ with Children

RCLCO

19

Source: National Association of REALTORS, 2011, RCLCO

SLIDE 21

So, Who Are These Transit People, Anyway?

RCLCO

20

SLIDE 22

TRANSIT-ORIENTED CONSUMER SEGMENTS

LIKELY SUSPECTS ARE YOUNG, SINGLE, MOBILE

RCLCO

21

Source: ESRI

SLIDE 23

TRANSIT-ORIENTED CONSUMER SEGMENTS

BUT ACTUAL SEGMENTS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT

15.8%

16% 18%

Tapestry Segment Response %

13.1% 12.6% 11.9% 8.9% 8.7% 7.7% 7.7% 5.4% 4 0%

6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

4.0% 3.5% 0.7%

0% 2% 4%

One quarter of the total TOD demand comes from non-traditional sources - SUV drivers who live One quarter of the total TOD demand comes from non traditional sources SUV drivers who live beyond the traditional “urban” areas who have bought into a transportation trap. How likely will we be in luring back into higher-density environs that transportation modeling suggests is transit-supportive?

RCLCO

22

suggests is transit supportive?

SLIDE 24

TAPESTRY SEGMENTATION BY LIFEMODE

“HIGH SOCIETY”: TOP SURVEY RESPONDENT CATEGORIES

Affluent and well-educated LIFEMODE SEGMENT L1: HIGH SOCIETY Represent approximately 12% of US households G t l 25% f t t l US i Generate nearly 25% of total US income Professional/management positions Most ho seholds are married co ple families Most households are married couple families living in affluent neighborhoods, with a median home value of $320,000 One of least ethnically diverse groups but One of least ethnically diverse groups, but

ne of the fastest growing

Travel extensively

RCLCO

23

Source: ESRI

SLIDE 25

TAPESTRY SEGMENTATION BY LIFEMODE

“UPSCALE AVENUES”: TOP SURVEY RESPONDENT CATEGORY

Above average earnings and well educated; LIFEMODE SEGMENT L2: UPSCALE AVENUES Above-average earnings and well-educated; “years of hard work” Prefer several distinct types of housing, and includes a mix of renters and some includes a mix of renters and some homeowners Characterized by prosperous domesticity Median net worth of $182,330 Buy new cars Take domestic vacations and save and invest earnings

RCLCO

24

Source: ESRI

SLIDE 26

Implications

RCLCO

25

SLIDE 27

IMPLICATIONS AND QUESTIONS 1.Are we undercounting the overall demand for smart growth and transit-oriented environs? 2.What are our regional transportation network i l ? W lk bl id ? A th expansion plans? Walkable grids? Are they sufficient? 3.What are the neighborhoods, areas, and regions that make the most sense for additional smart growth planning, including transit?

RCLCO

26

SLIDE 28

Suburbia, Soccer Moms, SUVs and Smart Growth RCLCO P bli St t i G RCLCO – Public Strategies Group Shyam Kannan, Principal and PSG Director skannan@rclco.com