Strongest forecast growth of all States Economic growth NSW Vic. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Strongest forecast growth of all States

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Economic growth

Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review

1 2 3 4 5 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 Annual % change NSW Vic. Qld WA SA Tas.

Economic parameters

3 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review

2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 Outcome Budget MYFER Budget MYFER Gross state product2 3.2 4 4 3½ 3½ Employment 1.6 1½ ¾ 1¾ 1¾ Unemployment rate 6.2 6¼ 6¼ 6 6 Inflation 1.6 2 1¾ 2½ 2¼ Wage Price Index 1.9 2¼ 2¼ 2¾ 2¾ Population3 1¼ 1½ 1½ 1½ 1½

Notes:

• 1. Annual % change, except for unemployment rate.
• 2. Based on Queensland Treasury Queensland State Accounts. Using different methodologies the ABS estimates 2.0% growth in 2015-16.
• 3. Population growth for 2015-16 is the annual growth rate in the three quarters to March quarter 2016, as June quarter 2016 data were not

available at the time of printing. Sources: ABS 3101.0, 6202.0, 6345.0, 6401.0 and Queensland Treasury.

Operating surplus driven higher by short-term royalty boost

4 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review

Net operating balance ($ billion)

• 5
• 4
• 3
• 2
• 1

1 2 3 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

5 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review

Short-term Royalty Boost

Hard Coking Coal, contract price

50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 US$ per tonne 2016-17 Budget 2016-17 MYFER

Key revenue changes since Budget

6 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review

• 600
• 400
• 200

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

$ mllion Taxes Royalties GST

7 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review

General Government Debt lower

GGS Debt $ billion

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2014-15 Budget 2015-16 Budget 2016-17 Budget 2016-17 MYFER

Ongoing reductions in debt

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General government debt to revenue

Debt to Revenue ratio down 25% since 2012-13

Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105

2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019-20

%

2014–15 Budget 2015–16 Budget 2016–17 Budget 2016–17 MYFER

9 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review

Non-financial Public Sector debt lower

NFPS Debt $ billion

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2014-15 Budget 2015-16 Budget 2016-17 Budget 2016-17 MYFER

10 Queensland Budget 2016-17 Mid Year Fiscal and Economic Review

Regional Jobs and Productivity Boosting Infrastructure

$10.7 billion capital program More than $440 million Accelerated Works Program $200 million Regional Works program

$200 million Jobs and Regional Growth Package

Includes $170 million Jobs and Regional Growth Fund Includes $20 million Made in Queensland manufacturing