Growth in the Puget Sound Region ROSS Executive Committee February - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region ROSS Executive Committee February - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 04, 2023 313 likes •681 views

Growth in the Puget Sound Region ROSS Executive Committee February 17, 2016 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Highlights Strongest population growth since 2005 Strongest job growth since 1997 Growth is predominately occurring in

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SLIDE 1

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

ROSS Executive Committee

February 17, 2016

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SLIDE 2

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Highlights

  • Strongest population growth since 2005
  • Strongest job growth since 1997
  • Growth is predominately occurring in

cities, centers and other urban areas

  • Preservation of rural areas
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SLIDE 3

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

We’ve Been Growing

The region grew by 63K people and 76K jobs last year (2014-15)

  • That’s more than 7 people per hour
  • Nearly 9 jobs per hour

Growth per hour

Graphic by Picktochart

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SLIDE 4

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Another Tacoma

Since 2010 the region has grown by 208,000 people …or the equivalent of a Tacoma

this Tacoma not this Tacoma

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SLIDE 5

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Strongest Growth Since 2005

  • Population growth slowed during recessions
  • Accelerated in recent years

Annual population growth

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SLIDE 6

Growth in the Puget Sound Region 6

Puget Sound Population: 3.9 Million

  • Expected to hit 4 million in 2017
  • Nearly 5 million by 2040 – on track with VISION forecast

1 2 3 4 5 6 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Millions Actual Forecast

Employment Population Households

} 1 million additional people

} 850,000 additional jobs

} 600,000 additional households

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SLIDE 7

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

200,000 216,000 223,000 249,000 280,000 310,000 343,000 368,000 417,000 493,000 502,000 541,000 Denver, CO Austin, TX Seattle, WA San Francisco, CA Phoenix, AZ Atlanta, GA Miami, FL Washington, DC Los Angeles, CA New York,NY Dallas, TX Houston, TX 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 7.0% 7.0% 7.8% 7.8% 8.1% 8.5% 9.1% 9.3% 12.5% Seattle, WA Washington, DC Phoenix, AZ Nashville, TN Charlotte, NC-SC Dallas, TX Denver, CO San Antonio, TX Orlando, FL Houston, TX Raleigh, NC Austin, TX

One of the Fastest Growing Regions in U.S.

Major U.S. Metro Areas Population Growth – Nominal and Percent Growth 2010-2014

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SLIDE 8

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

But Not As Fast as Some Places

people/ hour: 7 9 18 85

Rate of population growth

Graphic by Picktochart

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SLIDE 9

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Global Perspective

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/nov/23/cities-in-numbers-how-patterns-of-urban-growth-change-the-world#img-1

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Where are people from?

In-state relocation tops migration

Total from other countries: 35,084 Place of prior year residence

Census ACS 2009-2013

3,549 4,171 4,658 5,498 5,604 8,512 8,544 21,163 25,559 32,197

Colorado Georgia Florida Arizona Europe Oregon Texas Asia California Washington

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SLIDE 11

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Migration Follows the Economy

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Natural Increase vs Net Migration

Natural Migration

Natural increase is a constant

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SLIDE 12

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

  • 80,000
  • 60,000
  • 40,000
  • 20,000

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 1990-91 1996-97 2002-03 2008-09 2014-15

Annual Change in Wage & Salary Employment

Largest Annual Job Increase Since 1997-98

  • Recession lost over 120,000 jobs regionally; recovered from job losses in 2013
  • In 2014-15 grew by about 66,000 wage & salary employment jobs, or about

76,000 total jobs

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SLIDE 13

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

2 Million Total Jobs in the Region

Strong growth in our IT and aerospace industry clusters

4.04% 0.77% 1.34% 5.34% 1.49% 5.93% 2.67% 2.00%

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%

  • 30,000

60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 Growth Rate Jobs

Cluster Employment and Growth Rate 2010-14

2010 2013 2014 Growth-Rate 2010-14

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SLIDE 14

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Tech is Hot

Computer jobs have led growth for past 5 years

10,137 11,845 14,317 14,772 18,053 20,301 Information and Record Clerks Retail Sales Workers Food and Beverage Serving Workers Business Operations Specialists Construction Trades Workers Computer Occupations

2010-15 employment growth for top categories

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SLIDE 15

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Growth = Construction Jobs

Construction jobs saw greatest gain last year

2,912 2,929 3,477 3,724 4,240 8,569 Computer Occupations Material Moving Workers Business Operations Specialists Information and Record Clerks Retail Sales Workers Construction Trades Workers

2014-15 employment growth for top categories

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SLIDE 16

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Where is Growth?

  • Permitted

housing units 2000-2004

– 134,000 new housing units

Replace with 2000 base map

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SLIDE 17

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Where is Growth?

  • Permitted

housing units 2005-2009

– 117,000 new housing units

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SLIDE 18

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Where is Growth?

  • Permitted

housing units 2010-2013

– 67,000 new housing units – (3 year period)

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SLIDE 19

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Where is Growth?

  • Total

permitted housing units 2000-2013

– 318,000 new housing units

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Where is Growth?

  • Employment change

2010-2014

– 160,000 new jobs

  • verall

– King: 115,000 – Kitsap: 1,000 – Pierce: 15,000 – Snohomish: 28,000

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Kitsap County

  • Population: 258,200 (2015)
  • 1% annual growth rate
  • 2,300 more people over the past year
  • 14,600 new units permitted 2000-13

80.5% 19.5%

2013 Residential Permits

Urban Rural

Map shows residential permits 2000-2013

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Snohomish County

  • Population: 757,600 (2015)
  • 2.2% annual growth rate
  • 16,600 more people over the

past year

  • 63,500 new units permitted

2000-13

  • Strongest growth in SW county,

Ash Way and Marysville areas

91.6% 8.4%

2013 Residential Permits

Urban Rural

Map shows residential permits 2000-2013

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

King County

99.4% 0.6%

2013 Residential Permits

Urban Rural

Map shows residential permits 2000-2013

  • Population:

2,052,800 (2015)

  • 1.8% annual

growth rate

  • 35,550 more

people over the past year

  • 175,600 new units

permitted 2000-13

  • Strong growth in

centers

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SLIDE 24

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Pierce County

  • Population: 830,120 (2015)
  • 1% annual growth rate
  • 8,820 more people over the past year
  • 64,100 new units permitted 2000-13

87.7% 12.3%

2013 Residential Permits

Urban Rural

Map shows residential permits 2000-2013

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SLIDE 25

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

New Growth is in Cities and Urban Areas

  • 95% of new housing was built in cities and urban areas (2013)
  • Compared to 72% in 1991
  • Rural lands are staying rural

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 1991 2013

Net Permitted Housing Units 1991-2013

Inside UGA Outside UGA

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

  • % Minority in 2014
  • Minority population

increased from 15% (1990) to 34% (2014)

  • Foreign-born population

contributed to 38% of total population growth 1990-2014

Demographic Shift

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SLIDE 27

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Young Adults (18-29)

% of population people per acre

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Cities Growing the Most and the Fastest

Seattle Tops Local Cities

Population growth and percent increase 2010-15 excluding annexations

2,896 3,294 3,903 4,120 4,887 5,031 5,365 6,717 7,007 53,740 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Issaquah Sammamish Tacoma Marysville Redmond Kent Auburn Renton Bellevue Seattle 9.0% 9.5% 9.7% 11.0% 12.2% 12.6% 12.8% 20.0% 20.4% 20.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Redmond Issaquah Duvall North Bend Bonney Lake Port Orchard DuPont Gig Harbor Snoqualmie Ruston

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Strongest Job Growth in Regional Centers

  • 33% of the region’s job growth going into regional growth centers -

just 3% of the urban land area (covered employment for 2010-2014)

  • Since 2010:

– 52,000 more jobs in regional growth centers – 18,000 more jobs in manufacturing/industrial centers

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

More People Living in Regional Centers

  • Regional centers have some
  • f the strongest housing

growth

  • Since 2000 14% of housing

growth has occurred in regional growth centers

  • Pop-to-job ratio has

increased from 0.29 to 0.37 improving jobs/housing balance

9,707 5,353 5,014 3,172 2,566 1,990 1,952 1,805 1,784 1,037 Downtown Seattle Bellevue First Hill/Capitol Hill South Lake Union Seattle Uptown Renton Redmond DT University District Downtown Tacoma Tacoma Mall

New housing units 2000-2014 38,000 total new housing units among all regional growth centers 2000-2014

Top Performing Regional Growth Centers

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SLIDE 31

Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Challenges

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Summary

  • Strong pop & job growth consistent with

past cycles and VISION 2040

  • Growth trend toward cities, urban locations

and places with access

– Strongest growth in regional centers – Growth pattern is helping preserve rural areas

  • Employment growth strongest in tech

– Construction and retail see benefits of growth

  • Pressure on transportation system and

housing affordability

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

Next Steps

  • What do you want to know more about?
  • Potential future presentations on:

– Looking closer at where growth is going – Exploring issues, such housing affordability and the changing demographics of the region – Connecting growth with transportation infrastructure – Assessing VISION 2040 and the regional growth strategy

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SLIDE 34

Thank You

Paul Inghram pinghram@psrc.org Carol Naito cnaito@psrc.org