SLIDE 18 Statistical characterization of WP Statistical characterization of WP
- utput given the forecast
- utput given the forecast
18 18
- 1. Normalize 10 minute WP
- utput, wi, for a year
- 2. Generate hour-ahead
persistence forecast, wfci
- 3. Re-arrange data based on
forecast in an ascending
- rder
- 4. Divide data according to
forecast level into 25 bins
- 5. For each bin, find the pdf
fits of the WP output, wi. Consider Weibull, Extreme Value, and Beta
functions, pick the one that best fits the bin data
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 x 104 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Number of data points W in d p
er o u tp u t an d fo re ca st (p u )
Actual wind power output Wind power forecast
Bin # 1 7 19 25 2
3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.1 3.11 3.12 3.13 x 10
4
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Number of data points Wind power: output and forecast (pu)
Actual wind power output Wind power forecast 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.2 4.21 4.22 4.23 4.24 4.25 x 10
4
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Number of data points Wind power: output and forecast (pu)
Actual wind power output Wind power forecast 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 10 20 30
Histogram of actual data and pdf fits: wfc = 0.24 - 0.28 pu Frequency (%)
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 10 20 30
Actual data and simulated data using best pdf fit parameters Frequency (%) Wind power output (pu)
Actual data Weibull Extreme value Beta Actual data Weibull Extreme value Beta 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 10 20 30 40
Histogram of actual data and pdf fits: wfc = 0.72 - 0.76 pu Frequency (%)
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 10 20 30 40
Actual data and simulated data using best pdf fit parameters Frequency (%) Wind power output (pu)
Actual data Weibull Extreme value Beta Actual data Weibull Extreme value Beta