ASEAN @ 50 Project: Status and Some Results & Insights Ponciano Intal, Jr. Senior Economist EAS- Economic Ministers Meeting 9 September 2017, Manila
Components and Status of ASEAN @ 50 Project • Publication: 5 volumes Volume 1 : The ASEAN Journey: Reflections of ASEAN Leaders and Officials • Eds.: Pitsuwan, Nishimura, Intal, Chongkittavorn, and Maramis Volume 2 : Voices of ASEAN: What does ASEAN Mean to ASEAN People • Eds.: Intal and Ruddy
Components and Status of ASEAN @ 50 Project (2) Volume 3 : ASEAN and Member States: Transformation and Integration • Eds.: Intal and Chen Volume 4 : Building ASEAN Community: Political-Security and Socio-Cultural Reflections • Eds.: Baviera and Maramis Volume 5 : The ASEAN Economic Community into 2025 and Beyond • Eds.: Sta. Maria, Urata and Intal
Components and Status of ASEAN @ 50 Project • Publication: • Volume 1 : The ASEAN Journey: Reflections of ASEAN Leaders and Officials . Includes: • Essays from ASEAN Leaders ; i.e.., Pres. Arroyo, PM. Badawi, PM Goh Chok Tong, PM Hun Sen, Pres. Ramos, Pres Thein Sein, PM Sissoulith, PMVejjajiva, Deputy PM Vu Khoan, and Pres. Yudhoyono. • Special Messages from Sultan Hassanah Bolkiah and Pres. Duterte. • Essays from Ministers, former ASEAN Secretary Generals, and Senior Officials. Plus one special essay each from Australia, China and Japan. Also background papers from editorial team.
Components and Status of ASEAN @ 50 Project (3) Outreach Symposium on APSC • Iloilo City, 18 June 2017 Symposium on ASCC • Davao City, 24 August 2017 Symposium on AEC • Manila, 21 September 2017 High Level Forum on ASEAN @ 50 • Manila, 19 October 2017 Briefers; press releases; media outreach
Findings from the Survey Results • There is strong aspiration for: – an integrated and connected ASEAN – a resilient, equitable and sustainable ASEAN – an ASEAN of good governance – an ASEAN with significant global and regional presence and contribution • Gap between aspirations and expectations for 2025 : – Narrowest : Integrated and connected ASEAN – Widest: ASEAN of good governance – Large: Equitable and sustainable ASEAN – Considerable: Resilient ASEAN; ASEAN’s global and regional engagement
Integrated and Connected ASEAN 100% 84% 82% 81% 77% 80% 76% 74% 68% 61% 60% 40% 20% 0% Consumers have easy It is easy for skilled ASEAN countries are well People and businesses can access to goods and workers and professionals connected through roads, communicate easily with services from any ASEAN to find work in other railways, air, and shipping. one another through ICT. country. countries in ASEAN. Aspirations and Hopes by 2025 Expectations by 2025
ASEAN Governance, Resilience, Equity 100% 78% 80% 74% 73% 73% 58% 60% 49% 44% 39% 40% 20% 0% There is good governance There is equitable access ASEAN major cities are less ASEAN is able to and very much less to opportunities for ASEAN polluted and more livable anticipate, respond and corruption. peoples. than they are today. recover faster together from natural disasters. Aspirations and Hopes by 2025 Expectations by 2025
ASEAN Global and Regional Engagement 100% 79% 77% 80% 61% 61% 60% 40% 20% 0% ASEAN is a strong voice and important player in global ASEAN deeply engages powers in the region and the negotiations and forums. world (e.g., US, China) to ensure peace in the region and Asia Pacific. Aspirations and Hopes by 2025 Expectations by 2025
Pressing Problems 47% Corruption 47% 46% Climate change and natural disasters 29% 36% Income disparity and social inequality 39% 35% Trade, investment, and regulatory coherence 22% 32% Agriculture and food security 33% 30% Poverty 27% 28% Human rights 18% 27% Infrastructure availability and quality 29% 24% Unemployment 31% 23% Quality education provision and access 29% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Faced by ASEAN Faced by Country
Insights from the Survey Results • Significant overlap between pressing regional and national concerns. Also pressing concerns mirror aspirations-expectations gaps • Regionally concerted national actions bring synergy – Synergy among AMSs – Synergy among blueprints: AEC + ASCC + MPAC + APSC
Insights from the Survey Results (2): AEC and ANTI-CORRUPTION AEC and Anti-Corruption GRP/IRC in ASEAN • Political support through • NSW demands streamlined adoption of GRP principles procedures, interagency • Regular review of coordination, transparency, regulations and allows non-contact • Institutionalize GRP transactions. consultations among • NTR/ATR: transparency stakeholders • IRC in ASEAN can lead to • GRP approach to addressing adoption of good practice, NTMs calls for streamlined strengthened cross-border coordination, AMS’ procedures and private regulatory convergence or sector involvement. concordance
Framework for inclusiveness and social equity in regional integration Social equity as poverty reduction • High economic growth key poverty reducer • Investment as key growth driver • Many regional integration initiatives enhance investment attractiveness Social equity as reduced inequality Enhancing direct investment and growth drivers as indirect equity enablers Strengthening direct equity drivers and indirect growth enablers
AEC 2025: Enhancing Direct Investment and Efficiency Drivers as Indirect Equity Enablers Seamless Trade Facilitation • NSW/ASW; NTR/ATR; Tariff Finder; Self-Certification • Most beneficial to SMEs with interactive features and SME support “center”. SMEs are major employment drivers. NTMs and Standards and Conformance • Transparency • Setting to international standards; MRAs; technical regulations harmonization • Accessible laboratories and efficient certification systems beneficial to SMEs Services Liberalization and Cooperation • Reframing: towards “service exporters are service importers” • Movement of natural persons • Skills certification • Innovative local (ASEAN) SMEs with access to specialist foreign skills can have better chances of competing globally by marrying local strengths and foreign expertise to develop unique service product propositions.
AEC 2025: Enhancing Direct Investment and Efficiency Drivers as Indirect Equity Enablers Good Regulatory Practice (GRP) Principles Stakeholder engagement International regulatory cooperation GRP on NTMs call for transparency, streamlined procedures and private sector engagement — all anti-corruption measures Gives voice to SMEs in discussions on regulatory improvement and reducing unnecessary regulatory burden Complex regulations more burdensome to SMEs than LEs Connectivity Physical, institutional, people-to-people Access of peripheries (including rural areas) to growth centers important for inclusive growth
ASCC 2025: Strengthening Direct Equity Drivers and Indirect Growth Enablers Education • Education for all • IFPRI studies show rural education very important in reducing rural poverty • Raises potentials for technology upgrading Health; Access to safe water and sanitation • Poor cannot afford not to work due to health reasons. Health emergencies may force poor to sell income earning assets (e.g., buffalo) or to borrow • Healthy workers raise productivity Access to electricity, irrigation, farm-to-market roads • IFPRI studies show irrigation, rural roads and electricity as important in reducing rural poverty • Raise agricultural productivity and non-farm rural industrialization Social Safety Net • For increased economic resiliency and may enhance inter-sectoral labor mobility
Integration, Inclusion and Community Building • AEC Blueprint 2025 (together with MPAC 2025 and ASCC 2025) potentially helps address many pressing problems & supports aspirations: – Challenge: need for widespread understanding and appreciation that AEC (and MPAC) is far more than economic integration. – It is also for good governance and anti-corruption; equitable growth if done in tandem with ASCC and MPAC, etc.. • Economic integration in ASEAN is critical part of, and needs, ASEAN community building. – Successful AEC that delivers benefits to all people needs robust ASCC, MPAC and APSC. Complementation critical. • Implementation and coordination! Political Will and People Support! – Communication and engagement critical
THANK YOU!
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