State of the North County 1 Regional Demographics Agenda and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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State of the North County 1 Regional Demographics Agenda and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 10, 2023 169 likes •583 views

SLO County Workforce Development Board & Paso Robles Chamber of Commerce State of the North County 1 Regional Demographics Agenda and Characteristics 2 Economic, Industry, & Occupational Analysis 3 Things to Consider North County

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SLO County Workforce Development Board & Paso Robles Chamber of Commerce

State of the North County

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics Economic, Industry, & Occupational Analysis Things to Consider

1 2 3

Agenda

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North County Region Region

Zip Codes

Paso Robles 93446 Atascadero 93422 Templeton 93465 Shandon 93461 Creston 93432

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

1

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Population

Total 2017 Population: 89,572

93446 (Paso Robles) 44,911 93422 (Atascadero) 33,221 93465 (Templeton) 8,905 93461 (Shandon) 1,545 93432 (Creston) 990

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Population Change

2.9% 3.5% 3.0%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013

North County Region California USA

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Age Distribution

22.5% 8.2% 12.7% 11.7% 13.2% 15.1% 9.7% 7.0% 23.4% 10.0% 15.0% 13.3% 13.3% 11.8% 7.5% 5.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Under 18 18 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 and

  • lder

North County Region California

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Race and Ethnicity

72.6% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.0% 2.6% 2.3% 19.7% 60.6% 5.8% 0.7% 14.1% 0.4% 13.7% 4.7% 38.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% White Black or African American American Indian and Alaska Native Asian Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic or Latino

North County Region California

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Educational Attainment

9.5% 23.4% 30.3% 10.2% 26.5%

North County Region

Less Than High School High School Some College, no Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher 16.8% 21.8% 24.4% 7.4% 29.6% 9.5% 23.4% 30.3% 10.2% 26.5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Less Than High School High School Some College, no Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree

  • r Higher

California North County Region

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Educational Attainment

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Educational Attainment in SLO County (2017)

Institution All Program Completions Market Share YOY Growth in Completions

California Polytechnic State University‐San Luis Obispo 5,114 72.4% 2.4% Cuesta College 1,422 20.1% 9.1% Laurus College 248 3.5% 40.1% Central California School of Continuing Education 160 2.3% 1.3% Design's School of Cosmetology 115 1.6% (14.2%)

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Median Household Income

North County Region $71,203 California $67,169 USA $57,652

Median Household Income

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Household Income Distribution

13% 39% 14% 20% 7% 7% 19% 36% 12% 16% 8% 10% 21% 40% 12% 14% 6% 6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Less than $24,999 $25,000‐$74,999 $75,000‐$99,999 $100,000‐$149,999 $150,000‐$199,999 $200,000+ North County Region California USA

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Housing Expenditures Homeowners Renters

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Regional Demographics and Characteristics

Commute Characteristics

North County Region 24.3 minutes California 28.8 minutes USA 26.4 minutes

Mean Travel Time

79.4% 10.6% 1.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.8% 6.3% 73.6% 10.4% 5.2% 2.7% 1.1% 1.5% 5.6%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Drove alone Carpooled Public transportation (excluding taxicab) Walked Bicycle Taxicab, motorcycle, or other means Worked at home

North County Region California

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Economic, Industry, & Occupational Analysis

2

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Regional Economic Profile

Employment 2018

Paso Robles 19,059 53.1% Atascadero 10,431 29.1% Templeton 6,005 16.7% Creston 209 0.6% Shandon 162 0.5% Overall 35,866

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Regional Economic Profile

Employment Grow th (2013-2018)

10.2% 12.6% 8.7%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

North County Region California USA

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Regional Economic Profile

Labor Participation and Unemployment

Region

June 2019 Unemployment Rate Atascadero City 2.7% El Paso de Robles (Paso Robles) City 2.8% Lake Nacimiento CDP 2.2% Shandon CDP 4.8% Templeton CDP 1.4%

Overall 2.6%

California unemployment rate was 4.2% in June 2019 North County Region Labor Participation Rate: 64.1% vs 63.5% Statewide

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Regional Economic Profile

Regional Workforce

Net export of 7,400 jobs (20.1%) Primarily in management, business, science, and arts

  • ccupations

16,452 8,720 9,411 5,187 4,160 6,723 11,399 8,099 6,538 3,731

‐ 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Management, business, science, and arts

  • ccupations

Service occupations Sales and office

  • ccupations

Natural resources, construction, and maintenance

  • ccupations

Production, transportation, and material moving

  • ccupations

Resident Workforce Working in North County Region

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Regional Economic Profile

Job Quality

Tier 1

  • High‐skill, high‐wage
  • In 2018, median annual wage

$86,722 a year. The California median annual wage is $99,280.

  • Chief Executives, Sales Managers,

Lawyers, Physicians, Scientists, Engineers, Computer Programmers, and Software Developers.

Tier 2

  • Middle‐skill, middle‐wage
  • In 2018, median annual wage

$51,380 a year. The California median annual wage is $53,966.

  • Technicians, Teachers, Accounting

Clerks, Secretaries, Assemblers, Electricians, and Machinists.

Tier 3

  • Low‐skill, low‐wage
  • In 2018, median annual wage

$28,343 a year. The California median annual wage is $30,114.

  • Security guards, Food Service

and Retail positions, Janitors, Home Health Aides, and Child Care Workers.

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Regional Economic Profile

Job Quality

14% 32% 53% 23% 30% 47% 22% 33% 45%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3

North County Region California USA

12.0% 7.6% 14.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3

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Regional Economic Profile

Entrepreneurship Activity in North County Region Region Entrepreneurship activity in North County (2014 to 2016) is strong. North County business birth rate was higher (4.2%) than the California or the national average

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Regional Economic Profile

Higher-Income Industry Clusters

Energy Public Services & Infrastructure FIRE ICT Water Other Manufacturing Information and Communications B & BD $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $140,000 $150,000 $160,000 ‐25.0% ‐20.0% ‐15.0% ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

  • Avg. Annual Earnings, 2018

Job Growth 2013‐2018

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Regional Economic Profile

Middle-Income Industry Clusters

Building & Design Education and Knowledge Creation DATM Logistics Healthcare Professional and Business Services $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 $75,000 ‐40.0% ‐20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%

  • Avg. Annual Earnings, 2018

Job Growth 2013‐2018

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Regional Economic Profile

Low er-Income Industry Clusters

Agriculture & Food Other Services Retail Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 ‐15.0% ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

  • Avg. Annual Earnings, 2018

Job Growth 2013‐2018

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Regional Economic Profile

Selected Industry Cluster: Healthcare

Industries 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Location Quotient Avg Earnings per Job

Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities 1,845 78% 4.01 $18,459 Hospitals (State Government) 1,141 9% 12.46 $86,335 Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 671 9% 1.08 $96,000 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 346 18% 0.30 $94,938 Assisted Living Facilities for the Elderly 287 2% 2.66 $33,798

Occupations 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Median Hourly Earnings Typical Entry Level Education Work Experience

Personal Care Aides 1,918 109% $12.09 High school diploma or equivalent None Registered Nurses 435 15% $50.15 Bachelor's degree None Psychiatric Technicians 419 14% $33.72 Postsecondary nondegree award Less than 5 years Medical Assistants 216 17% $18.64 Postsecondary nondegree award None Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 208 (5%) $26.70 Postsecondary nondegree award None Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Healthcare

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Regional Economic Profile

Selected Industry Cluster: Agriculture and Food

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Agriculture and Food Job Quality

Occupations 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Median Hourly Earnings Typical Entry Level Education Work Experience

Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 2,172 24% $12.21 No formal educational credential None Agricultural Equipment Operators 292 49% $14.38 No formal educational credential None Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers 275 (18%) $39.18 High school diploma or equivalent 5 years or more Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders 271 57% $13.93 High school diploma or equivalent None Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders 264 100% $14.93 High school diploma or equivalent None

Industries 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Location Quotient Avg Earnings per Job

Farm Labor Contractors and Crew Leaders 1,940 59% 24.69 $36,252 Wineries 1,745 54% 105.79 $60,362 Crop Production 1,445 (15%) 10.81 $47,990 Farm Management Services 737 73% 153.33 $49,078 Veterinary Services 154 38% 1.63 $42,710

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Regional Economic Profile

Selected Industry Cluster: Building and Design

Industries 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Location Quotient Avg Earnings per Job

Site Preparation Contractors 508 22% 5.97 $103,550 Plumbing, Heating, and Air‐ Conditioning Contractors 295 48% 1.08 $66,774 New Single‐Family Housing Construction (except For‐Sale Builders) 204 38% 2.26 $62,163 Drywall and Insulation Contractors 179 57% 2.85 $48,989 Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors 151 (2%) 0.66 $84,141

Occupations 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Median Hourly Earnings Typical Entry Level Education Work Experience

Construction Laborers 326 41% $19.20 No formal educational credential None Carpenters 243 47% $25.98 High school diploma or equivalent None Painters, Construction and Maintenance 126 (3%) $21.10 No formal educational credential None First‐Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers 112 38% $33.37 High school diploma or equivalent 5 years or more Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers 98 63% $22.85 Postsecondary nondegree award None Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Building and Design

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Regional Economic Profile

Selected Industry Cluster: Public Services & Infrastructure

Industries 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Location Quotient Avg Earnings per Job

Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 1,915 9% 1.37 $102,142 State Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 1,341 15% 2.44 $94,913 Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction 138 331% 1.67 $99,277 US Postal Service 104 6% 0.70 $70,401 Federal Government, Civilian, Excluding Postal Service 92 (30%) 0.17 $93,296

Occupations 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Median Hourly Earnings Typical Entry Level Education Work Experience

Correctional Officers and Jailers 335 12% $42.35 High school diploma or equivalent None Firefighters 198 14% $26.31 Postsecondary nondegree award None Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 196 9% $46.82 High school diploma or equivalent None Office Clerks, General 88 14% $15.48 High school diploma or equivalent None Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 81 19% $20.18 High school diploma or equivalent None Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Public Services & Infrastructure

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Regional Economic Profile

Selected Industry Cluster: Education and Know ledge Creation

Industries 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Location Quotient Avg Earnings per Job

Elementary and Secondary Schools (Local Government) 1,984 8% 1.13 $73,176 Educational Support Services 290 ‐ 7.69 $15,758 Child Day Care Services 211 35% 0.94 $30,862 Elementary and Secondary Schools 87 (42%) 0.32 $38,935 Fine Arts Schools 33 43% 1.37 $11,884

Occupations 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Median Hourly Earnings Typical Entry Level Education Work Experience

Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education 504 6% $29.07 Bachelor's degree None Teacher Assistants 363 31% $14.14 Some college, no degree None Substitute Teachers 264 6% $17.21 Bachelor's degree None Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education 231 14% $34.21 Bachelor's degree None Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 227 5% $34.46 Bachelor's degree None Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Education and Knowledge Creation

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Regional Economic Profile

Selected Industry Cluster: Finance, Insurance, Banking, and Real Estate (F.I.R.E.)

Industries 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Location Quotient Avg Earnings per Job

Commercial Banking 236 (18%) 0.74 $120,067 Insurance Agencies and Brokerages 136 18% 0.51 $77,255 All Other Nondepository Credit Intermediation 85 193% 5.07 $113,231 Offices of Real Estate Agents and Brokers 83 2% 0.98 $68,947 Credit Unions 79 39% 1.20 $70,862

Occupations 2018 Jobs % Change 2013‐2018 Median Hourly Earnings Typical Entry Level Education Work Experience

Tellers 115 (14%) $15.74 High school diploma or equivalent None Securities, Commodities, and Financial Services Sales Agents 97 52% $23.71 Bachelor's degree None Insurance Sales Agents 92 18% $22.18 High school diploma or equivalent None Loan Officers 57 12% $32.48 Bachelor's degree None Counter and Rental Clerks 46 10% $14.72 No formal educational credential None

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

F.I.R.E.

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Things to Consider

3

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Key Challenges

  • 1. Economic Insecurity
  • 2. The QoL (Sunshine) Tax
  • 3. Industry Profile
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Things to Consider

Economic Insecurity

Median Annual Wage Number of Jobs to Meet Family Self‐ Sufficiency

Tier 1

$86,722 0.61

Tier 2

$51,380 1.03

Tier 3

$28,343 1.86

  • Poverty rate in North County

region is 9.5% but an incomplete measure for those that are struggling to get by.

  • A family of four (2 adults and 2

children, one adult working) living in SLO County requires $52,720 annually to stay at or above self- sufficiency.

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Things to Consider

The QoL Tax

Cost of Living Average Wages

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Regional Economic Profile

Low er-Income Industry Clusters

Agriculture & Food Other Services Retail Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 ‐15.0% ‐10.0% ‐5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

  • Avg. Annual Earnings, 2018

Job Growth 2013‐2018

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Key Opportunities

  • 1. Entrepreneurship and

grow th in Wineries

  • 2. Quality of Life
  • 3. Robust Grow th in Key

Industry Segments (Building and Design, Healthcare, and Education increased by ~20%)

  • 4. Economic Resiliency &

Diversity

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Things to Consider

Key Industry Cluster Grow th in North County The following industry clusters grew by more than 20% in North County (2013 to 2018) and offer a healthy mix of tier 1, 2, & 3 jobs;

  • Healthcare (27%, 5,698 jobs, 4.36 LQ)
  • Building & Design (21%, 2,768, 2.67 LQ)
  • Education & Knowledge Creation (21%, 2,685, 2.46 LQ)
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Things to Consider

Economic Resiliency & Diversity

Regional Economic Resilience (Brookings, GWU & Urban Institute, 2010 & BW Research 2019)

  • Industry structure has an impact on economic resilience (Healthcare & Education

more resilient, Durable manufacturing less resilient).

  • More export-oriented industries makes a region less likely to experience a downturn
  • Regions in which a large share of the population has low levels of formal schooling (HS

diploma or less) are more susceptible to downturns

  • Regions with large income gaps or higher income inequality are more susceptible to

downturn