State and Transition Models: STM (StSim: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Integrated

Landscape Analysis Program

David Seesholtz Pacific Northwest Research Station Collaborative Restoration Workshop Denver, CO April 27, 2016

State and Transition Models: STM

Fire and salvage 1 in 200 chance Planting or natural regeneration Growth & succession Growth & succession (StSim: http://www.apexrms.com/projects/stsm)

Halofsky, J. E., M. K. Creutzburg, et al., Eds. (2014). Integrating social, economic, and ecological values across large

• landscapes. PNW-GTR-896.

Portland, OR, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station.

ILAP Development

ILAP Development

Multiple Partners Knowledge Discovery Knowledge Delivery

ILAP can help inform restoration prioritization

Blue Mountains Area Reference Conditions

Blue Mountains modeling area: 24.6 million acres National Forest Lands: about 6.7 million acres across 4 national forests Lower Joseph modeling area: about 453,000 acres National Forest Land in Lower Joseph (HUC 5 watershed): about 103,000 acres

Blues Potential Vegetation Types

Blues Current Forest Vegetation Structure

Blues Reference Conditions Forest Structure

Moving Toward Reference

Setting 1 – Increase the dominance of western larch (with lodgepole) and ponderosa pine. Increase patch sizes for large and giant sized trees. Shoot for at least 20% of area in LG size classes with at least half of that in closed conditions. At least half area of LG forests should be in large patches. About 20% of the area should be in grass/forb/shrub and seedling/sapling conditions. DRAFT – Subject to change

Moving Toward Reference

Setting 2 – Increase the dominance of ponderosa

• pine. Large patches (well over

100 acres) of LG should dominate, forming more than 30% of the area. LG patches should be highly connected. Open patches (mostly < 20 acres) of grass/forb/shrub and seedlings/saplings should

• ccupy 8-10% of potentially

forested area. DRAFT – Subject to change

Potential Changes in Large Trees per Acre over 30 Years for the Lower Joseph Project

No Management Modified PA PA-High

Key ILAP Contacts

• Jimmy Kagan - ILAP Lead

Jimmy.kagan@oregonstate.edu 503-725-9955

• Miles Hemstrom - ILAP Science Leader

Miles.hemstrom@oregonstate.edu 503-730-5479

• David Seesholtz

dseesholtz@fs.fed.us 208-373-4179

ILAP Website – www.oregonstate.edu/inr/ilap The Western Landscapes Explorer (www.westernlandscapesexplorer.info) provides public access to ILAP data, models and tools, as well as other landscape-level information. PNW-GTR-896. Portland, OR, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station. http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr896.pdf