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  1. ●r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ❇r❡❡❞✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ●❡♥❡t✐❝s ✕ ✶✼✴✵✼✴✷✵✶✽ ●❡♥♦♠❡✲✇✐❞❡ ❛ss♦❝✐❛t✐♦♥ st✉❞② ♦❢ ❛ ❞✐✈❡rs❡ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ♣❛♥❡❧ t♦ ✉♥❝♦✈❡r t❤❡ ❣❡♥❡t✐❝ ❛r❝❤✐t❡❝t✉r❡ ♦❢ ♥✉♠❡r♦✉s tr❛✐ts ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r❡st ❚✳ ❋❧✉tr❡ ✱ ❘✳ ❇❛❝✐❧✐❡r✐✱ ●✳ ❇❡r❣❡r✱ ❨✳ ❇❡rtr❛♥❞✱ ❏✲▼ ❇♦✉rs✐q✉♦t✱ ❆✳ ❋♦❞♦r✱ ❚✳ ▲❛❝♦♠❜❡✱ ❱✳ ▲❛✉❝♦✉✱ ❆✳ ▲❛✉♥❛②✱ ▲✳ ▲❡ ❈✉♥✛✱ ❈✳ ❘♦♠✐❡✉✱ P✳ ❚❤✐s✱ ❏✲P✳ Pér♦s✱ ❆✳ ❉♦❧✐❣❡③ ❆●❆P✱ ❯♥✐✈ ▼♦♥t♣❡❧❧✐❡r✱ ❈■❘❆❉✱ ■◆❘❆✱ ▼♦♥t♣❡❧❧✐❡r ❙✉♣❆❣r♦✱ ▼♦♥t♣❡❧❧✐❡r✱ ❋r❛♥❝❡ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✶ ✴ ✶✼

  2. ▼✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡s ❘❡❞✉❝❡ ♣❡st✐❝✐❞❡s ❆❞❛♣t t♦ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ r❡❢✳ ❚ ◦ ✐♥ ✶✾✼✵ ♣r❡❞✳ ❚ ◦ ✐♥ ✷✵✺✺ ♣r❡❞✳ ❚ ◦ ✐♥ ✷✵✽✺ ❆❘P❊●❊ ♠♦❞❡❧ ▼❛❥♦r q✉❡st✐♦♥s t♦ ❜✐♦❧♦❣✐sts✿ ✶✳ ❤♦✇ t♦ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣❡ t❤❡ ❡❝♦✲♣❤②s✐♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦❝❡ss❡s ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r❡st❄ ✷✳ ✇❤❛t ❛r❡ t❤❡✐r ❣❡♥❡t✐❝ ❛r❝❤✐t❡❝t✉r❡s❄ ✸✳ ❤♦✇ t♦ ✐♥❝♦r♣♦r❛t❡ t❤❡♠ ✐♥t♦ ❜r❡❡❞✐♥❣ ♣r♦❣r❛♠s❄ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✷ ✴ ✶✼

  3. ▼✉❧t✐♣❧❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡s ❛♥❞ ❝❤❛❧❧❡♥❣❡s ❘❡❞✉❝❡ ♣❡st✐❝✐❞❡s ❆❞❛♣t t♦ ❝❧✐♠❛t❡ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ r❡❢✳ ❚ ◦ ✐♥ ✶✾✼✵ ♣r❡❞✳ ❚ ◦ ✐♥ ✷✵✺✺ ♣r❡❞✳ ❚ ◦ ✐♥ ✷✵✽✺ ❆❘P❊●❊ ♠♦❞❡❧ ▼❛❥♦r q✉❡st✐♦♥s t♦ ❜✐♦❧♦❣✐sts✿ ✶✳ ❤♦✇ t♦ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣❡ t❤❡ ❡❝♦✲♣❤②s✐♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ♣r♦❝❡ss❡s ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r❡st❄ ✷✳ ✇❤❛t ❛r❡ t❤❡✐r ❣❡♥❡t✐❝ ❛r❝❤✐t❡❝t✉r❡s❄ ✸✳ ❤♦✇ t♦ ✐♥❝♦r♣♦r❛t❡ t❤❡♠ ✐♥t♦ ❜r❡❡❞✐♥❣ ♣r♦❣r❛♠s❄ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✷ ✴ ✶✼

  4. ❉✐✈❡rs✐t② ♣❛♥❡❧ ♦❢ ❱✐t✐s ✈✐♥✐❢❡r❛ ▲✳ ❢r♦♠ ❉♦♠❛✐♥❡ ❞❡ ❱❛ss❛❧ ❇❡s✐❞❡ ❜✐✲♣❛r❡♥t❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥s ⇒ ✷✼✾ ❝✉❧t✐✈❛rs ✭✇❡❛❦ str✉❝t✉r❡✮ ◆✐❝♦❧❛s ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✻✮ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✸ ✴ ✶✼

  5. ❋✐❡❧❞ ❧❛②♦✉t ❛t ❉♦♠❛✐♥❡ ❞✉ ❈❤❛♣✐tr❡ ✷✵✵✾✿ ♦✈❡r❣r❛❢t ♦♥ ▼❛rs❡❧❛♥ ✭❝♦♥tr♦❧✮ ◮ ✺ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❡ r❛♥❞♦♠✐③❡❞ ❜❧♦❝❦s ◮ ❡❛❝❤ ❣❡♥♦t②♣❡ ❤❛s ✶ r❡♣❧✐❝❛t❡ ♣❡r ❜❧♦❝❦ � ✷✵✵✾ ❆◆❉✱ ❚❡❧❡ ❆t❧❛s✱ ●♦♦❣❧❡ ❝ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✹ ✴ ✶✼

  6. ❋♦❝✉s ♦♥ ♠❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t ✭✷✵✶✵✲✷✵✶✷✮ ■♥t❡♥s❡ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣✐♥❣ ❡✛♦rt ✷✵✶✵✲✷✵✶✷ ◮ ❚r❛✐ts✿ ♠❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t❀ ♠❡❛♥ ❜✉♥❝❤ ✇❡✐❣❤t✱ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❛❝t♥❡ss❀ ♣r✉♥✐♥❣ ✇❡✐❣❤t ❛♥❞ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✇♦♦❞② s❤♦♦ts❀ ♠❛❧❛t❡✱ t❛rtr❛t❡✱ s❤✐❦✐♠❛t❡❀ δ ✶✸ ❈ ◮ ❆❞❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛t❡s✿ ✈✐❣♦✉r✱ s❛♥✐t❛r② st❛t✉s ◮ ◆♦ ✐rr✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ✷✵✶✹✲✷✵✶✺ ◮ ❚r❛✐ts✿ ♠❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t❀ δ ✶✸ ❈❀ β ✲❞❛♠❛s❝❡♥♦♥❡ ❛♥❞ ♣❉▼❙❀ ♣♦❧②♣❤❡♥♦❧s ✭P✐♥❛ss❡❛✉ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✼✮ ◮ ❚r❡❛t♠❡♥t✿ ✇✐t❤ ♦r ✇✐t❤♦✉t ✐rr✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✺ ✴ ✶✼

  7. ■♥t❡♥s❡ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣✐♥❣ ❡✛♦rt ✷✵✶✵✲✷✵✶✷ ◮ ❚r❛✐ts✿ ♠❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t ❀ ♠❡❛♥ ❜✉♥❝❤ ✇❡✐❣❤t✱ ❧❡♥❣t❤ ❛♥❞ ❝♦♠♣❛❝t♥❡ss❀ ♣r✉♥✐♥❣ ✇❡✐❣❤t ❛♥❞ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ✇♦♦❞② s❤♦♦ts❀ ♠❛❧❛t❡✱ t❛rtr❛t❡✱ s❤✐❦✐♠❛t❡❀ δ ✶✸ ❈ ◮ ❆❞❞✐t✐♦♥❛❧ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛t❡s✿ ✈✐❣♦✉r✱ s❛♥✐t❛r② st❛t✉s ◮ ◆♦ ✐rr✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ✷✵✶✹✲✷✵✶✺ ◮ ❚r❛✐ts✿ ♠❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t❀ δ ✶✸ ❈❀ β ✲❞❛♠❛s❝❡♥♦♥❡ ❛♥❞ ♣❉▼❙❀ ♣♦❧②♣❤❡♥♦❧s ✭P✐♥❛ss❡❛✉ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✱ ✷✵✶✼✮ ◮ ❚r❡❛t♠❡♥t✿ ✇✐t❤ ♦r ✇✐t❤♦✉t ✐rr✐❣❛t✐♦♥ ⇒ ❋♦❝✉s ♦♥ ♠❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t ✭✷✵✶✵✲✷✵✶✷✮ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✺ ✴ ✶✼

  8. ▼❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t✿ ❡①♣❧♦r❛t♦r② ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣❡s ❈♦♥tr♦❧ ❣❡♥♦t②♣❡ ✭▼❛rs❡❧❛♥✮ ♣❡r ❜❧♦❝❦ ❛♥❞ ②❡❛r ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✻ ✴ ✶✼

  9. ▼❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t✿ ❡①♣❧♦r❛t♦r② ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣❡s P❛♥❡❧ ♣❡r ❜❧♦❝❦ ❛♥❞ ②❡❛r ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✻ ✴ ✶✼

  10. ▼❡❛♥ ❜❡rr② ✇❡✐❣❤t✿ ❡①♣❧♦r❛t♦r② ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣❡s ▼✐ss✐♥❣ ❞❛t❛ ✐♥ ✷✵✶✶ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✻ ✴ ✶✼

  11. ✶✶❦ ❙◆Ps ✾✵❦ ❙◆Ps ❉❡♥s✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ t♦ t❛❣ ❛❧❧✴♠♦st ❝❛✉s❛❧ ♣♦❧②♠♦r♣❤✐s♠s ❉✉❛❧ ❣❡♥♦t②♣✐♥❣ ◮ ●r❛♣❡❘❡❙❡q ♠✐❝r♦❛rr❛② ✭■❧❧✉♠✐♥❛✮✿ ✶✷❦ ❙◆Ps ❛❢t❡r ◗❈ ◮ ●❇❙ ✇✐t❤ ❆♣❡❑■ ❡♥③②♠❡ ✭❑❡②❣❡♥❡✮✿ ✶✷✵❦ ❙◆Ps ❛❢t❡r ◗❈ ◮ ❈♦♠❜✐♥❡❞✿ ✾✵❦ ❙◆Ps ✇✐t❤ ▲❉ ❁ ✵✳✾ ❛♥❞ ▼❆❋ ❃ ✵✳✵✶ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✼ ✴ ✶✼

  12. ❉✉❛❧ ❣❡♥♦t②♣✐♥❣ ◮ ●r❛♣❡❘❡❙❡q ♠✐❝r♦❛rr❛② ✭■❧❧✉♠✐♥❛✮✿ ✶✷❦ ❙◆Ps ❛❢t❡r ◗❈ ◮ ●❇❙ ✇✐t❤ ❆♣❡❑■ ❡♥③②♠❡ ✭❑❡②❣❡♥❡✮✿ ✶✷✵❦ ❙◆Ps ❛❢t❡r ◗❈ ◮ ❈♦♠❜✐♥❡❞✿ ✾✵❦ ❙◆Ps ✇✐t❤ ▲❉ ❁ ✵✳✾ ❛♥❞ ▼❆❋ ❃ ✵✳✵✶ ✶✶❦ ❙◆Ps ✾✵❦ ❙◆Ps ⇒ ❉❡♥s✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ r❡q✉✐r❡❞ t♦ t❛❣ ❛❧❧✴♠♦st ❝❛✉s❛❧ ♣♦❧②♠♦r♣❤✐s♠s ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✼ ✴ ✶✼

  13. ❑✐♥s❤✐♣ ♠❛tr✐① ❢r♦♠ ❙◆Ps ✭❛❞❞✐t✐✈❡ ❣❡♥❡t✐❝ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s✮ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✽ ✴ ✶✼

  14. ✷ ■❞ ✷ ✇✐t❤ ❛ ✵ ✵ ② ❛ ✿ ❦✐♥s❤✐♣ ♠❛tr✐① ♦❢ ❛❞❞✐t✐✈❡ ❣❡♥❡t✐❝ r❡❧❛t✐♦♥s❤✐♣s ❛ ✿ ❛❞❞✐t✐✈❡ ❣❡♥♦t②♣✐❝ ✈❛❧✉❡s ✭❛✳❦✳❛✳ ❜r❡❡❞✐♥❣ ✈❛❧✉❡s ✮ ✷ ✷ ✿ ♥❛rr♦✇✲s❡♥s❡ ❤❡r✐t❛❜✐❧✐t② ✭♦❢ ♠❡❛♥s✮ ✷ ✷ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣✐❝ ❞❛t❛ g ■❞ ); ǫ ∼ N ( ✵ , σ ✷ ■❞ ) ② = X β + Z ❣ + ǫ ✇✐t❤ ❣ ∼ N ( ✵ , σ ✷ ◮ ② ✿ ♣❤❡♥♦t②♣✐❝ ♦❜s❡r✈❛t✐♦♥s ◮ β ✿ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦❢ ❦♥♦✇♥ ❢❛❝t♦rs✱ ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ❛s ✧✜①❡❞✧ ◮ ❣ ✿ t♦t❛❧ ❣❡♥♦t②♣✐❝ ✈❛❧✉❡s✱ ♠♦❞❡❧❡❞ ❛s ✧r❛♥❞♦♠✧ ◮ ǫ ✿ ❡rr♦rs σ ✷ ◮ H ✷ = g +( σ ✷ / # rep ) ✿ ❜r♦❛❞✲s❡♥s❡ ❤❡r✐t❛❜✐❧✐t② ✭♦❢ ♠❡❛♥s✮ g σ ✷ ❋❧✉tr❡ ❡t ❛❧✳ ●❲❆❙ ♦❢ ❣r❛♣❡✈✐♥❡ ✾ ✴ ✶✼

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