SRI annual meeting 13 November 2015 Cautionary statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SRI annual meeting 13 November 2015 Cautionary statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SRI annual meeting 13 November 2015 Cautionary statement Forward-looking statements - cautionary statement The presentations and the associated slides and discussion contain certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements that
Forward-looking statements - cautionary statement The presentations and the associated slides and discussion contain certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements – that is, statements related to future, not past events – with respect to the financial condition, results of operation and businesses of BP and certain of the plans and objectives of BP with respect to these items. In particular, among other statements, certain statements regarding future focus on safety and efficiency in operations; with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of BP and certain of the expectations, intentions, plans and objectives of BP with respect to these items, in particular statements regarding future global energy trends and oil price, expectations regarding the settlement of certain claims in the Gulf of Mexico litigation; BP’s plans and expectations regarding the 'BP Proposition', active portfolio management, future portfolio resilience and the effects of future and current technologies on BP’s portfolio; expectations regarding BP’s plans to rebalance the financial framework and the future growth of organic free cash flow; plans and expectations regarding the Upstream major project pipeline and an increasing bias to gas; expectations regarding divestments and the prospects for, expected timing, locations, composition and future production of major projects and growth; plans and expectations regarding BP’s ability to sustain its dividend, growth of shareholder distributions over the long-term and expected gearing levels; BP’s expectations in respect of future global demographic and economic trends, expectations regarding future trends in global energy demand and expectations regarding future contributions to global supply from different energy sources; levels of emissions and temperature, as well as improvements in engine efficiency, and the effect of a carbon price, are all forward looking in nature. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control
- f BP. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including the timing of the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory
approvals; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum and nature of certain divestments; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America; OPEC quota restrictions; PSA effects; operational problems; economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations; changes in sanctions and other trade restrictions; regulatory or legal actions including the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts; the impact on our reputation following the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; the actions of the Claims Administrator appointed under the Economic and Property Damages Settlement; the actions of all parties to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill-related litigation at various phases of the litigation; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, creditors, rating agencies and others; decisions by Rosneft’s management and board of directors in respect of strategy, operations or otherwise; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism, cyber-attacks or sabotage; and other factors discussed under “Principal risks and uncertainties” in BP’s Stock Exchange Announcement for the period ended 30 June 2015 and under “Risk factors” in our Annual Report and Form 20-F 2014 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Cautionary note to US investors – This presentation contains references to non-proved resources and production outlooks based on non-proved resources that the SEC’s rules prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures in our Form 20-F, SEC File No. 1-06262. This form is available on our website at www.bp.com. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or by logging on to their website at www.sec.gov. Tables and projections in this presentation are BP projections unless otherwise stated. Stock Exchange Announcement: For further information on BP’s results, please see our Stock Exchange Announcement for the period ended 30 September 2015. November 2015
Cautionary statement
Carl-Henric Svanberg
Chairman
Board context
Dev Sanyal
Executive vice president, strategy and regions
Industry context and our priorities
5
- Context for the sector and BP
- Managing operational risk
- Shareholder resolution 25 - our response
- Operating performance
Agenda
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Current context
6
(1) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream (2) Refining Marker Margin based on BP’s portfolio
Brent(1)
$/bbl
Henry Hub(1) Refining Marker Margin(2)
$/bbl 2013 2014 $/mmbtu 2015 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 1 2 3 5 4 6 7 8 20 40 60 100 80 120
The longer term view
$/bbl 7
Money of the day
3 6 9 12 15 18 1965 2000 2035
Thousands
OECD Other Non-OECD
Asia
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 1965 2000 2035 60 120 180 240 1965 2000 2035
GDP and energy demand growth
8
*Includes biofuels
Shares of primary energy
Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables*
Billion toe
Energy consumption by region
Trillion, $2011 PPP
GDP
OECD Other Non- OECD Asia
Our strategic principles
- Safe and efficient
- perations
- Capital and cost
discipline
- Resilience, focused on
value over volume
- Competitive growth
- A focused technology
programme
- Relationships of
mutual advantage
9
1. Capex of $17-19bn per annum over 2015-17 2. Cash costs reduced by over $6bn by 2017 versus 2014 3. Balance organic sources and uses of cash(1) at ~$60/bbl by 2017; organic free cash flow growth thereafter 4. Divestments of $9-10bn 2014-15; $3-5bn 2016; $2-3bn 2017+ 5. Gearing managed with flexibility around 20% 6. Commitment to sustaining the dividend
10
Our proposition
(1) Excludes Deepwater Horizon (DWH) payments, includes 100% of dividend. Organic free cashflow = Operating cash flow excluding DWH payments less organic capex.
GDP, energy and emissions
11
GDP , energy and emissions Emissions growth 2013 to 2035
Billion tonnes CO2
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
GDP growth effect Projected growth
Energy intensity Fuel mix
Index: 1990 = 100
100 200 300 400 500 1990 2005 2020 2035 CO2 Energy GDP
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035
Partnership
12
Bob Fryar
Executive vice president, safety and
- perational risk
Managing operational risk
A safer, stronger BP
BP’s agenda is a multi-year programme with activities risk-prioritized and paced to achieve enduring and sustainable change. Three principles underpin our efforts:
14
Our goals on safety remains the same: no accidents, no harm to people and no damage to the environment
To promote deep capability and a safe
- perating culture
Our operating management system (OMS) is the way BP
- perates
We test our conduct of
- perating through self
verification, independent assurance and audit.
Risk mitigation
15
Mitigation barriers Prevention barriers
Reputation impact Toxic release Environmental release Fire or explosion Financial loss Corrosion Erosion Mechanical failure Breaking containment Start-up / shut- down operations External impact Operating outside an
- perating envelope
Fatigue
Possible causes
Hydrocarbons
LOPC from
- nshore process
facility
Possible consequences
1 2 3 Plant shut down Leak containment Spill response 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
Corrosion prevention Material protection Maintain mechanical integrity Maintain mechanical integrity
2 2
LOPC – Loss of primary containment
Risk mitigation
16
Prevention barriers
1 2 3 2
Maintain mechanical integrity
2 2
Routine maintenance on process equipment
(e.g. Rotating Machinery)
Vibration and fatigue assessments of pipework Cathodic protection surveys External hull inspection (FPSO) Visual inspection walk-downs Inspection pipeline pigging Maintenance pipeline pigging Subsea ROV inspection Advanced non intrusive inspection Internal vessel inspection
FPSO – Floating production, storage and offloading ROV – Remotely operated vehicle
Safety and environmental performance
Number of Tier 1 & Tier 2 process safety events (T1 &T2 PSE) Number of losses of primary containment (LOPC) Recordable injury frequency (RIF) Number of oil spills ≥ 1 Barrel
17
- Year on year performance
- Underpinned by our three
principles
- 25 Bly recommendations
complete
- Safety is good business
18
In summary
SRI annual meeting
13 November 2015
Qs and As
SRI annual meeting
13 November 2015
21
Dev Sanyal
Executive vice president, strategy and regions
Shareholder resolution
Shareholder resolution 25 – our response
22
- The energy transition
- Resolution response
− Emissions − Portfolio resilience − Public policy − Technology and low carbon R&D
23
The energy transition – our point of view
1,700 700 400
Potential CO2 emissions from known fossil fuel reserves (Gigatonnes) Oil Gas Coal
Pragmatic action needed Access to affordable and secure energy Multiple actors, multiple actions Production v demand Coal economy v gas economy IOCs and NOCs
BP Sustainability Report
24
Dominic Emery
VP long term planning and policy
David Eyton
Group head of technology
BP’s response
Emissions – reporting
25
Direct CO2e by segment
- Upstream
- Downstream
- Other business and corporate (OB&C),
including shipping and alternative energies Direct CO2e by GHG type
- CO2
- Methane
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mte CO2e OB&C Upstream Downstream
Direct GHG emissions by source
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mte CO2e Methane CO2 Mte CO2e= Million tonnes CO2 equivalent
Direct GHG emissions by segment
Emissions – operations
26 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mte CH4 OB&C Downstream Upstream
Methane emissions by segment
Mte CH4 = Million tonnes methane
Upstream
- Methane detection
- Flaring intensity
- Real sustainable reductions
- External initiatives
Refining
- Energy intensity
- Product formulations
Petrochemicals
- Energy consumption and efficiency
Emissions – products
27
Lubricants
- 5.2 million tonnes of CO2 avoided using
in the last ten years Advanced fuels
- New Ultimate fuels range launched in Spain
this year
- Up to 56km / tank better for diesel
- Up to 44km / tank better for gasoline
Portfolio resilience
Resilient to the environment
- Integrated business model
- ~80% of pre-FID(1) major projects break-even below
$60/bbl Brent oil price
- Carbon price applied to projects to test resilience
Long-term growth and optionality
- Balance of deepwater, gas value chains and giant
fields, with an increasing bias to gas
- Strong pipeline of growth options, with flexibility
Reserves replacement
- Reserves to production ratio of 13 years providing
portfolio flexibility
Contribution to 2020 pre-tax
- perating cash flow(2)
Existing assets Post-FID(2) major projects Pre-FID(2) Giant
- il
fields Deepwater
- il
Gas value chains Angola North Sea Azerbaijan Gulf of Mexico Other
(1) Final Investment Decision (2) Based on BP planning assumptions
Upstream
Proved reserves at end 2014 2014 Production
Reserves replaced every ~13 years
28
Portfolio resilience – growth of gas
29
- Gas has half the CO2 emissions of coal when
combusted for power generation
- 50% of our current production is gas, and is
forecast to grow 60% by the mid 2020s
- Two mega-projects in construction
− Shah Deniz 2 − Oman Khazzan
Mid 2020s 2014
Gas Oil
Portfolio resilience – major gas projects
30
Shah Deniz 2
- 40TCF
, giant resource base
- Pipelines to Europe through 7
countries
- Project under construction
- Gas to Turkey in 2018; to Europe
in 2020 Oman Khazzan
- 100TCF
, giant resource base
- 7TCF first phase of development
- 2017 first gas for growing domestic market
- ~300 wells
- Designed to minimise methane leakage
TCF = Trillion cubic feet
Portfolio resilience – renewables businesses
31
- The largest operated renewable business of
supermajors
- ~3 million tonnes avoided CO2 in 2014
Brazilian biofuels: 3 mills, 643 million litres production
- Growing domestic ethanol market
- Cost-advantaged and robust at $45 – 50/bbl
US wind: 16 farms, 4,700 GWh production
- Consistent operational performance
- Power purchase agreements resilient to oil and gas
prices
GWh = Gigawatt hours
Portfolio resilience – asset classes
Source: BP Technology Outlook
T echnology
- Grows recoverable volumes
- Reduces cost of supply
- Changes rank
Carbon price
- Increases cost of supply
- Price impact varies by asset class
- Changes rank
32
2012 2050
$80/t carbon price Deepwater Ultra-deepwater Onshore extra heavy Shale oil Onshore heavy Shallow water Oil sands Onshore Tight oil Oil shale Technically recoverable volume (boe) Cost per barrel of oil equivalent ($/boe)
Public policy – approach
33
Pillars
- Carbon price
- Efficiency of operations and products
- The role of gas
- The role of technology and research
- Partnerships and initiatives
Products
- Energy Outlook
- Technology Outlook
Partnerships
OGCI declaration and report – www.oilandgasclimateinitiative.com
Technology – approach
34
- R&D spend of $663m in
2014
- Leading technologies in
− Upstream – seismic imaging and enhanced
- il recovery
− Downstream – petrochemicals and formulated products
- Efficiency of extraction
and conversion
- Low carbon options
Competitor range BP
Reported R&D/ capital employed
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1.8 %
Technology – venturing
35
Our venture portfolio
- 38 investments
- Supporting efficiency of
core oil and gas
- Insights into
renewables and alternatives
- ~1000 opportunities
screened annually Oil and gas Renewables & alternatives
Heliex Power – Screw expander that recovers energy from wet steam or two phase fluids to generate electricity Biosynthetic Technologies – creates “biosynthetic” oils from plant fatty acids used in lubricants, speciality chemicals, and cosmetics Liquid Light – develops technology that allows efficient conversions of carbon dioxide to a wide variety of chemicals, fuels and other compounds Fo-Tech – Fiber optic Distribution Acoustic Sensing for monitoring pipelines and downhole operations: fracture monitoring, production logging and leak detection Solidia Technologies – developing next generation building materials that consume, not generate carbon dioxide in the production process Skyonic – converts carbon dioxide emissions to solids for long-term storage
36
Technology – university & public-private partnerships
Energy Biosciences Institute Energy Sustainability Challenge BP Institute of Multiphase Flow BP International Centre for Advanced Materials Carbon Mitigation Initiative
Technology Outlook – key messages
37
- Energy resources are plentiful
- The power sector offers greatest scope for reducing emissions
- Transport is set to become more fuel efficient
- Some emerging technologies could prove disruptive
BP Technology Outlook – www.bp.com/technology
Bernard Looney
Chief operating officer, production
Operating safely, responsibly and efficiently
Operating performance
- Latest metrics
- Performance in action
- Looking to the future
Environmental performance
- Flaring reduction
- Methane emission reduction
- Building for the future
39
Agenda
Operating performance – process safety
Data excludes Lower 48
5 10 15 20 25 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015
GOO process safety - Tier 1 events
40 GOO – Global Operations Organisation
Operating performance – LOPCs
20 40 60 80 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3Q 2015
GOO loss of primary containment events (A-G)
41 Data excludes Lower 48
Operating performance – plant reliability
42
80% 85% 90% 95% 5 10 15 20 25 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015
Upstream operated plant reliability GOO process safety - tier 1 events
Data excludes Lower 48
Operating performance – today’s technology
Equipment reliability & availability monitoring Operating envelope monitoring Advanced condition monitoring Plant operations advisor
Operating performance – the future
Flaring reduction - Azerbaijan
46
Methane reduction – leak detection and repair programme
Building for the future - Oman Khazzan
SRI annual meeting
13 November 2015
Qs and As
49 49