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Solar Energy Business Developments Tatsumi Maeda Director & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Solar Energy Business Developments Tatsumi Maeda Director & Senior Managing Executive Officer General Manager of Corporate Solar Energy Group September 18, 2008 KYOCERA CORPORATION Forward-Looking Statements Certain of the statements


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Solar Energy Business Developments

September 18, 2008

Tatsumi Maeda

Director & Senior Managing Executive Officer General Manager of Corporate Solar Energy Group KYOCERA CORPORATION

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Certain of the statements made in this document are forward-looking statements (within the meaning of Section 21E of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act of 1934), which are based on our current assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions in our markets, which are primarily Japan, North America, Europe and Asia, particularly China; unexpected changes in economic, political and legal conditions in China; our ability to develop, launch and produce innovative products, including meeting quality and delivery standards, and our ability to otherwise meet the advancing technological requirements of our customers, particularly in the highly competitive markets for ceramics, semiconductor parts and electronic components; manufacturing delays or defects resulting from outsourcing or internal manufacturing processes which may adversely affect our production yields and operating results; factors that may affect our exports, including a strong yen, political and economic instability, difficulties in collection of accounts receivable, decrease in cost competitiveness of our products, increases in shipping and handling costs, difficulty in staffing and managing international operations and inadequate protection of our intellectual property; changes in exchange rates, particularly between the yen and the U.S. dollar and euro, respectively, in which we make significant sales; inability to secure skilled employees, particularly engineering and technical personnel; insufficient protection of our trade secrets and patents; our continuing to hold licenses to manufacture and sell certain of our products; the possibility that future initiatives and in- process research and development may not produce the desired results; the possibility that companies or assets acquired by us may require more cost than expected for integration, and may not produce the returns or benefits, or bring in business opportunities, which we expect; events that may impact negatively on our markets or supply chain, including terrorist acts and outbreaks of disease; the occurrence of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, in locations where our manufacturing and other key business facilities are located; the possibility of future tightening of environmental laws and regulations in Japan and other countries which may increase our environmental liability and compliance obligations; fluctuations in the value of, and impairment losses on, securities and other assets held by us; and changes in accounting

  • principles. Such risks, uncertainties and other factors may cause our actual results, performance, achievements or

financial position to be materially different from any future results, performance, achievements or financial position expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward- looking statements included in this document.

Forward-Looking Statements

1

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PV Global PV Global Market Trend Market Trend PV PV PV PV Global Global Global Global Market Trend Market Trend Market Trend Market Trend

2

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Europe USA

Spreading Feed-in Tariffs ⇒ 22 countries Growing Incentives ⇒ 38 states

Feed-in Tariff Net Metering Feed-in Tariff + Net Metering Incentives RPS Incentives + RPS

3

Contribution of Subsidies to Expansion

  • f European and U.S. Markets

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1. RPS: Renewables Portfolio Standard

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SLIDE 5

0.35 6.69 1.4 3.5 13

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

CY 2005 CY 2020 CY 2030

Photovoltaics

Around 1.42GW for PV

Mkl

Output conversion CF: 4kW/kl

Residential

320k homes

Public & Industrial 300MW

Toward the Realization of Low-Carbon Society of Japan

Around 14.3GW for PV

Residential

3,200k homes

Public & Industrial 3,000MW

Around 53.1GW for PV

to VS. 2005:

10 ×

40×

4

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

Current Best scenario Ongoing effort

Equivalent to 70% of new houses Forecast Long term perspective for growth in use of photovoltaic energy / Estimate by Kyocera Corp.

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1.4 0.4

0.25

1.8

GW

1.0

0.35

FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13

2.0 2.4 3.2

GW

1.3 2.3 3.6

FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13

3.6×

FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)

0.2 0.2 0.4

GW

0.2 0.3 0.5

FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13

FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)

Japan Japan

EU EU USA USA

FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)

10.4×

Right: Conservative Left: Policy driven

0.1

0.4 0.7

GW

0.03

0.15 0.5

FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13

Korea Korea 30× India India

0.03

0.13

0.05

FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13

8.3× 4.5×

4.7GW

0.25

GW

0.9GW

0.9 GW

2.6GW

World Market Size World Market Size

5.8 8.7 3.7 5.2 2.9 3.6 2.1

10.9 GW

FY3/08 FY09 FY11 FY13 FY10 FY12

7.0 GW

4.7GW

7.2GW

3.3×

5.2×

3.4×

2.2 ×

Estimate by Kyocera Corp.

Principal Market Outlook

5

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1. Forecast

FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E) FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)

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50 100 150 200 FY05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

原料不足

Kton GRAY YELLOW

Material Shortage

New material manufacturers Existing material manufactures

Requirement for Solar Products Requirement for

Semiconductors

Required Amount of Material for Semiconductors + Solar Products

Forecast

Comparison between Expansion Plans of Material Manufacturers and Market Requirements

6

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

FY3/05

Estimate by Kyocera Corp.

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SLIDE 8

5 10 15 20 25

FY07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

GW Large Power Plants Public & Industrial Stand Alone Residential

Demand Forecast in Four Principal Markets

7

Forecast Please refer to accompanying note on page 1. Estimate by Kyocera Corp.

FY3/07

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Overseas Solar Photovoltaic (PV) System Manufacturers

8

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

Major New ★

  • Cell / Module Maker

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

SolarWorld

★ ★ ★ ★

  • ★★★
  • Conergy

★ ★ ★

  • Q-Cells

★ ★ ★ ★

  • EverQ

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

★ ★

Ersol

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

  • SCHOTT

★ ★

  • ★●

  • Wurth

★ ★ ★ ★

  • Wacker

Solon

★ ★ ★ ★

  • ★★★

★ ★ ★

★ ★ ★

★ ★ ★ ★ ★

★ ★

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

  • ★●

★ ★ ★

★ ★ ★ ★

★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★

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Europe, US, Korea, etc. ⇒ Continuous market growth Expansion of subsidy policies Increase in production volume by existing manufacturers + new entrants ⇒ Stabilization of supply and price Increase in production of material + Rapid increase in number of manufacturers > 300 Companies =

Beginning of "intense competition era"

Gain comprehensive competitive advantages: "cost competitiveness, technologies for development and quality"

Beginning of "intense competition era"

Gain comprehensive competitive advantages: "cost competitiveness, technologies for development and quality"

EEG* in Germany: reexamination of buyback price of feed-in tariff

annual decrease rate 5% ⇒ 8~10%

9

*EEG= Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz

Market Conditions: Overview

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

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About KYOCERA About KYOCERA Solar Solar About About About About KYOCERA KYOCERA KYOCERA KYOCERA Solar Solar Solar Solar

10

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8.7 7.0 3.6 5.2 10.9GW 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.2

10.0% 6.9% 5.4% 5.1% 28.0%

2 4 6 8 10 12 FY3/05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GW

Multi c Multi c-

  • Si or Thin

Si or Thin-

  • film ? Total cost, long

film ? Total cost, long-

  • tern reliability

tern reliability・・・ ・・・ Thin Film Production Share

Technology Market Trend

GW

SOURCE: PV News, Lux Research

16 14 12 10 8

T/F Si

Multi c-Si (kyocera)

CIGS CdTe

Current Module Efficiency (%)

A company

8.5% B company 8.3%

C company

8.6%

F company 10.9% D company 9.6% E company 8.1% G company 11.0% H company 10.4%

14.1% Kyocera 11

Forecast Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

Market Expansion

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

12

14% 8%

construction cost

Up significantly

Mounting racks

  • approx. 1.7 times
  • No. of cells
  • approx. 1.7 times

Inverter

Construction cost

Rack, etc. Inverter Solar cells

Residential

Multi c-Si or Thin Film 勝者は? トータルコスト、長期信頼性・・・

Influence of conversion efficiency on Solar System Costs

SOURCE: PV News, Lux Research Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

Multi c Multi c-

  • Si or Thin

Si or Thin-

  • film ? Total cost, long

film ? Total cost, long-

  • tern reliability

tern reliability・・・ ・・・

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○ ○ ○ ○

Improvement of conversion efficiencies

Casting Cutting Wafer slicing Solar cells Solar modules

Silicon Vertical integration Vertical integration ⇒ ⇒ Aims to maximize conversion efficiencies with Aims to maximize conversion efficiencies with

  • ptimization in all pro
  • ptimization in all production phases

duction phases

Improvement

  • f conversion

efficiencies

Improvement of crystalline quality Impurity contamination measures Optimization of slicing conditions Thinner wafers Improvement in quality of sliced material Passivation Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) technology High sheet resistance emitters Improvement

  • f contact metal

Optimization of material Optimization of fabrication process

Cost competitiveness: Improvement of conversion efficiencies

13

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

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Back

Contact

Cell Current: 3BB

FY09 FY3/05 2BB 3BB

Back Contact

Target 18.5%

3.86W/cell

17.5% 16.5% 16.5% 15.7%

4.50W/cell 3.67W/cell 4.06W/cell 4.26W/cell

Lager Cell

(156mm square)

Higher efficiencies for Back Contact

  • Approx. 17%

improvement from current power output 2BB

Conversion efficiencies Power

  • utput

Technologies

Productivity

  • 1. Higher cell efficiencies
  • 2. Thinner cells

08

180μm 240 / 200μm

Further advancement of thinner cells

100% achievement

FY3/05 06 07

Productivity improvement of approx. 40% compared to FY3/05

09・・・ FY10

Cost competitiveness: Productivity

14

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

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Development of Differential Products

Annual average temperature map

Snow resistance Snow resistance High temperature resistance High temperature resistance Design oriented Design oriented Building unifiable Compact stand-alone power source Snow resistance / weighting durability High temperature resistance / heat durability Design oriented / black back sheets Building unifiable / frame-less Compact stand-alone power source / small size

Black Back sheets Compact stand-alone power source

Frame-less High temperature resistance

Please refer to accompanying note on page 2.

15

Compact stand-alone power source Compact stand-alone power source

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Snow load analysis

PV Modules for 5400Pa

Objective: Snow resistance (5400Pa) Challenges: Frame strength Module durability

Test example using real products

Black Modules

Objective: Better appearance Challenges: High temperature resistance

  • TEMP. Analysis

Objective: Compatibility for various installation methods Challenges: Metal fitting reliability

Without frame

Frameless Modules

Fall away Direction of short frame Direction of short frame Direction of long frame Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

16

Direction of long frame

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Module

Cell

FY10 FY09

156mm×156mm Larger Cell

180μm

200W

Back Contact

220W

Black Module

FY3/05 ・・・・・

17.5% 16.5% 16.5% 15.7%

Development of Solar Modules

210W

High power

  • utput

175W

Snow resistance (5400Pa) 17

Frame less

2BB 3BB

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

Target

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Quality is True “DIFFERENTIATION” KYOCERA w ith THE QUALITY

Installation

Evaluation Items

Output Durability Reliability

No.1 Quality Evaluation in Germany No.1 Quality Evaluation in Germany

* * in 15 Makers

(Best: 1.0, Worst: 6.0)

18

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

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Factor with biggest impact on costs, ⇒ Conversion efficiency Kyocera’s multi-crystalline cells: Over 20 years of testing and evaluation

Major Characteristics Required of Solar Cells

  • 1. Costs

VS thin-film 8~11% Kyocera’s back contact cells: 18.5%

  • 2. Long-term reliability

VS thin-film ??

Multi-crystalline solar cells or thin-film solar cells ?

19

・ Reduce total system cost, including installation cost ・ Stable long term output (high reliability)

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700

3/92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

EEG in Germany Amendment to EEG in Germany California Solar Initiatives Residential subsidies in Japan (until FY06)

Back Contact Cell Back Back Contact Contact Cell Cell

High Efficiency

18.5%

High Efficiency

18.5%

FY

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

20

Forecast

Kyocera's Production Expansion Plan

  • f PV Systems

550MW

400MW

300MW

500MW

650MW

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Czech Republic Mexico Tianjin Germany Brazil Australia Singapore Beijing Japan Kyocera USA

S-Korea

Germany Singapore China Mexico Yohkaichi Japan / Ise China Czech Republic USA South Korea Australia Japan Brazil 21

8 sales bases worldwide 4 production bases worldwide

“Production where markets are” "Quick delivery” “Market-oriented module design” “Sales network built on long-term relationships of trust” “Anticipating customer needs”

Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.

Ise 150MW/yr Plant construction completed Mexico 240MW/yr Plant construction completed

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