Solar Energy Business Developments
September 18, 2008
Tatsumi Maeda
Director & Senior Managing Executive Officer General Manager of Corporate Solar Energy Group KYOCERA CORPORATION
Solar Energy Business Developments Tatsumi Maeda Director & - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Solar Energy Business Developments Tatsumi Maeda Director & Senior Managing Executive Officer General Manager of Corporate Solar Energy Group September 18, 2008 KYOCERA CORPORATION Forward-Looking Statements Certain of the statements
September 18, 2008
Tatsumi Maeda
Director & Senior Managing Executive Officer General Manager of Corporate Solar Energy Group KYOCERA CORPORATION
Certain of the statements made in this document are forward-looking statements (within the meaning of Section 21E of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act of 1934), which are based on our current assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions in our markets, which are primarily Japan, North America, Europe and Asia, particularly China; unexpected changes in economic, political and legal conditions in China; our ability to develop, launch and produce innovative products, including meeting quality and delivery standards, and our ability to otherwise meet the advancing technological requirements of our customers, particularly in the highly competitive markets for ceramics, semiconductor parts and electronic components; manufacturing delays or defects resulting from outsourcing or internal manufacturing processes which may adversely affect our production yields and operating results; factors that may affect our exports, including a strong yen, political and economic instability, difficulties in collection of accounts receivable, decrease in cost competitiveness of our products, increases in shipping and handling costs, difficulty in staffing and managing international operations and inadequate protection of our intellectual property; changes in exchange rates, particularly between the yen and the U.S. dollar and euro, respectively, in which we make significant sales; inability to secure skilled employees, particularly engineering and technical personnel; insufficient protection of our trade secrets and patents; our continuing to hold licenses to manufacture and sell certain of our products; the possibility that future initiatives and in- process research and development may not produce the desired results; the possibility that companies or assets acquired by us may require more cost than expected for integration, and may not produce the returns or benefits, or bring in business opportunities, which we expect; events that may impact negatively on our markets or supply chain, including terrorist acts and outbreaks of disease; the occurrence of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, in locations where our manufacturing and other key business facilities are located; the possibility of future tightening of environmental laws and regulations in Japan and other countries which may increase our environmental liability and compliance obligations; fluctuations in the value of, and impairment losses on, securities and other assets held by us; and changes in accounting
financial position to be materially different from any future results, performance, achievements or financial position expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward- looking statements included in this document.
1
2
Europe USA
Spreading Feed-in Tariffs ⇒ 22 countries Growing Incentives ⇒ 38 states
Feed-in Tariff Net Metering Feed-in Tariff + Net Metering Incentives RPS Incentives + RPS
3
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1. RPS: Renewables Portfolio Standard
0.35 6.69 1.4 3.5 13
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
CY 2005 CY 2020 CY 2030
Around 1.42GW for PV
Mkl
Output conversion CF: 4kW/kl
Residential
Public & Industrial 300MW
Around 14.3GW for PV
Residential
Public & Industrial 3,000MW
Around 53.1GW for PV
to VS. 2005:
4
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
Current Best scenario Ongoing effort
Equivalent to 70% of new houses Forecast Long term perspective for growth in use of photovoltaic energy / Estimate by Kyocera Corp.
1.4 0.4
0.25
1.8
GW
1.0
0.35
FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13
2.0 2.4 3.2
GW
1.3 2.3 3.6
FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13
3.6×
FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)
0.2 0.2 0.4
GW
0.2 0.3 0.5
FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)
Japan Japan
FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)
10.4×
Right: Conservative Left: Policy driven
0.1
0.4 0.7
GW
0.03
0.15 0.5
FY08 FY09 FY11 FY13Korea Korea 30× India India
0.03
0.13
0.05
FY08 FY09 FY11 FY138.3× 4.5×
4.7GW
0.25
GW
0.9GW
0.9 GW
2.6GW
5.8 8.7 3.7 5.2 2.9 3.6 2.1
FY3/08 FY09 FY11 FY13 FY10 FY12
7.0 GW
4.7GW
7.2GW
3.3×
5.2×
3.4×
2.2 ×
Estimate by Kyocera Corp.
5
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1. Forecast
FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E) FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)
50 100 150 200 FY05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
原料不足
Kton GRAY YELLOW
Material Shortage
New material manufacturers Existing material manufactures
Requirement for Solar Products Requirement for
Semiconductors
Required Amount of Material for Semiconductors + Solar Products
Forecast
6
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
FY3/05
Estimate by Kyocera Corp.
5 10 15 20 25
FY07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
GW Large Power Plants Public & Industrial Stand Alone Residential
7
Forecast Please refer to accompanying note on page 1. Estimate by Kyocera Corp.
FY3/07
8
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
★
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★
SolarWorld
★ ★ ★ ★
★ ★ ★
★ ★ ★ ★
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★
★ ★
★
Ersol
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★
★ ★
★
★ ★ ★ ★
Solon
★ ★ ★ ★
★ ★ ★
★ ★ ★
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
★ ★
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★
★
★
★ ★ ★
★ ★ ★ ★
★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★ ★
Europe, US, Korea, etc. ⇒ Continuous market growth Expansion of subsidy policies Increase in production volume by existing manufacturers + new entrants ⇒ Stabilization of supply and price Increase in production of material + Rapid increase in number of manufacturers > 300 Companies =
Gain comprehensive competitive advantages: "cost competitiveness, technologies for development and quality"
Gain comprehensive competitive advantages: "cost competitiveness, technologies for development and quality"
EEG* in Germany: reexamination of buyback price of feed-in tariff
annual decrease rate 5% ⇒ 8~10%
9
*EEG= Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
10
8.7 7.0 3.6 5.2 10.9GW 1.1 1.5 1.6 2.2
10.0% 6.9% 5.4% 5.1% 28.0%
2 4 6 8 10 12 FY3/05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GW
Multi c Multi c-
Si or Thin-
film ? Total cost, long-
tern reliability・・・ ・・・ Thin Film Production Share
GW
SOURCE: PV News, Lux Research
16 14 12 10 8
T/F Si
Multi c-Si (kyocera)
CIGS CdTe
Current Module Efficiency (%)
A company
8.5% B company 8.3%
C company
8.6%
F company 10.9% D company 9.6% E company 8.1% G company 11.0% H company 10.4%
14.1% Kyocera 11
Forecast Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
12
construction cost
Up significantly
Mounting racks
Inverter
Construction cost
Rack, etc. Inverter Solar cells
Residential
SOURCE: PV News, Lux Research Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
Multi c Multi c-
Si or Thin-
film ? Total cost, long-
tern reliability・・・ ・・・
Casting Cutting Wafer slicing Solar cells Solar modules
Silicon Vertical integration Vertical integration ⇒ ⇒ Aims to maximize conversion efficiencies with Aims to maximize conversion efficiencies with
duction phases
Improvement
efficiencies
Improvement of crystalline quality Impurity contamination measures Optimization of slicing conditions Thinner wafers Improvement in quality of sliced material Passivation Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) technology High sheet resistance emitters Improvement
Optimization of material Optimization of fabrication process
13
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
Back
Contact
Cell Current: 3BB
FY09 FY3/05 2BB 3BB
Back Contact
Target 18.5%
3.86W/cell
4.50W/cell 3.67W/cell 4.06W/cell 4.26W/cell
Lager Cell
(156mm square)
Higher efficiencies for Back Contact
improvement from current power output 2BB
Conversion efficiencies Power
Technologies
08
Further advancement of thinner cells
100% achievement
FY3/05 06 07
Productivity improvement of approx. 40% compared to FY3/05
09・・・ FY10
14
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
Annual average temperature map
Snow resistance Snow resistance High temperature resistance High temperature resistance Design oriented Design oriented Building unifiable Compact stand-alone power source Snow resistance / weighting durability High temperature resistance / heat durability Design oriented / black back sheets Building unifiable / frame-less Compact stand-alone power source / small size
Black Back sheets Compact stand-alone power source
Frame-less High temperature resistance
Please refer to accompanying note on page 2.
15
Compact stand-alone power source Compact stand-alone power source
Snow load analysis
Objective: Snow resistance (5400Pa) Challenges: Frame strength Module durability
Test example using real products
Objective: Better appearance Challenges: High temperature resistance
Objective: Compatibility for various installation methods Challenges: Metal fitting reliability
Without frame
Fall away Direction of short frame Direction of short frame Direction of long frame Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
16
Direction of long frame
FY10 FY09
156mm×156mm Larger Cell
180μm
200W
Back Contact
Black Module
FY3/05 ・・・・・
17.5% 16.5% 16.5% 15.7%
210W
High power
175W
Snow resistance (5400Pa) 17
Frame less
2BB 3BB
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
Target
Installation
Evaluation Items
Output Durability Reliability
* * in 15 Makers
(Best: 1.0, Worst: 6.0)
18
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
Factor with biggest impact on costs, ⇒ Conversion efficiency Kyocera’s multi-crystalline cells: Over 20 years of testing and evaluation
VS thin-film 8~11% Kyocera’s back contact cells: 18.5%
VS thin-film ??
19
・ Reduce total system cost, including installation cost ・ Stable long term output (high reliability)
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
3/92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
EEG in Germany Amendment to EEG in Germany California Solar Initiatives Residential subsidies in Japan (until FY06)
FY
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
20
Forecast
300MW
Czech Republic Mexico Tianjin Germany Brazil Australia Singapore Beijing Japan Kyocera USA
S-Korea
Germany Singapore China Mexico Yohkaichi Japan / Ise China Czech Republic USA South Korea Australia Japan Brazil 21
“Production where markets are” "Quick delivery” “Market-oriented module design” “Sales network built on long-term relationships of trust” “Anticipating customer needs”
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
Ise 150MW/yr Plant construction completed Mexico 240MW/yr Plant construction completed